Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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000 FXUS63 KEAX 121713 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... /410 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2009/ CWA IS KINDA IN NO MANS LAND WITH NORTHERN UPPER JET REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SEVERAL FEATURES CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHAT THIS SPELLS IS SEVERAL PERIODS WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER MN WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS CEASED THERE WILL BE A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. GIVEN TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY ENDED UP COLDER THAN GUIDANCE HAVE RESERVATIONS WE WILL REACH EVEN THE COLDER MET MOS NUMBERS. A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FETCH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT A WARMING WIND AS IT PULLS MODIFIED COLD AIR OUT OF THE MN HIGH PLUS THE EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL RETARD THE DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE. SO WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID CLOUDS TO FORM OVER KS AND CURL INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL WARMUP. HAVE CONSIDERABLE DOUBT WE WILL REACH THE MUCH WARMER MAV MAX TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING. IT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE AND CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GUNK UP THE WORKS. THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE SLOW WARMING PROCESS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE IN BRINGING A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MO DURING THE DAY. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY. 19 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH SECONDARY WAVE PUSHING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT KEEPING EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. DEROCHE && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$