1994 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS)

User Needs Meeting with Gas Research Institute (GRI)
Hosted by Energy End Use & Integrated Statistics Division (EEUISD)

June 7, 1994

Attendees

GRI: Marie Lihn

Energy & Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA): Joel Bluestein

EEUISD: Transportation & Industrial Branch John Preston
Bob Adler
Mark Schipper
Mike Margreta
Cindy Magee

Due to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) has become a biennial collection, instead of triennial, starting with the 1994 collection. In addition, it is expected that the sample size will be expanded to accommodate data reporting on the basis of census division, including counts of establishment types.

EEA is currently in the process of updating a data-intensive, energy-based model that was developed in the late 1970s for the industrial sector. This model, for use by GRI, projects the penetration of new energy technologies through the forecasted period. This model was originally sponsored by DOE and GRI, among others, and was derived in part by the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The model measures industrial production growth by the same standard industrial classification (SIC) codes that are used by the NEMS industrial sector model. Economic variables are drawn from baseline forecasts provided by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) at the level of 11 DRI regions. Service categories are provided for each SIC.

Among its analytical endeavors, EEA prepares analyses of the industrial boiler population, energy use for process heating applications, and equipment stock estimates for the steel industry.

At this time, information in the model is being updated, with data checks via calibration to known overall totals, some of which are provided by the MECS. In this way, numbers can be reconciled on energy consumption in the industrial sector.

The key factors needed by GRI and EEA are industrial production growth by SIC and fuel prices. Presently, 10 federal regions are being used, with expected update to the 11 DRI regions.

GRI and EEA are currently using the industrial directory to get any available information, especially as it pertains to industrial sector SICs 1-39. They also find the Monthly Energy Review (MER) useful for total energy consumption. Mr. Preston explained that he is currently in the process of preparing a new appendix for the 1991 MECS publication that will reconcile the MECS estimates and definitions with those of the MER. Furthermore, the MECS team is working at this time with other offices to consistently define survey terms.

GRI and EEA have already received part of the data tables for the 1991 MECS. From those tables that are now being used, the additional SIC breakdowns (4-digit SICs) by demand and source are especially helpful. GRI and EEA would like to see more SICs at the 4-digit level. However, if too much data in individual cells must be withheld to avoid disclosure for individual establishments, then collections for additional SICs are not worth the effort.

Although the attendees felt that end-use classifications were a major improvement in the 1991 MECS tables, the end uses are not specifically provided for approximately 5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of energy. However, as Mr. Schipper pointed out, at least 4 quadrillion Btu can be found by referring to other tables for byproduct fuels like pulping liquor, biomass, and blast furnace gas.

Also, the MECS does not allocate steam to end uses. Since steam cascades throughout the plant at different pressures and temperatures, it gets used and reused. Hence, it would be difficult to get an accounting of steam by end use. As a result, the MECS asks each establishment only for steam amounts that were purchased and sold.

The attendees observed that energy-conservation equipment is not specifically listed in the survey, just the programs. Mr. Adler explained that the MECS does list some energy-efficient equipment retrofits that are based on the same breakdowns as those for end uses. These questions are contained on the MECS in an establishment checklist, which also includes demand-side management programs. However, the MECS does not intend to become an equipment inventory.

The penetration of new technology is of interest to GRI and EEA. Counts of establishment types involved with new technology are expected to be provided for the 1994 MECS collection.

GRI and EEA have recently been attempting to reconcile cogeneration data with the boiler data that they obtained from Edison Light Institute. What they have found is that the systems are generating more electricity and steam than at first suspected. EEA would like to figure out what percentage of industrial boilers are cogenerating, but the MECS does not provide this information. The MECS does not include boiler counts, but it does provide total boiler use in various forms. The MECS does not wish to ask boiler-specific questions.

GRI and EEA expressed an interest in a general technology listing for both cogeneration and steam. Although the MECS team is willing to consider such a listing, the team would need to know the particulars. EEA will forward a list of cogeneration technologies that are not industry specific.

It is expected that the fuel-switching section on the MECS will be reduced, but additional questions will be asked concerning switches of residual fuel oil to/from natural gas. Most likely, respondents will be asked the reason(s) for the fuel switch (fuel availability, maintenance, price, environmental restrictions, emissions, etc.) and also the percentage range of price difference between fuels, if the switch was caused by price. GRI and EEA would like to see fuel-switching tabulations by regions.

Mr. Bluestein explained that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) forwarded a memorandum in July, 1993, concerning seasonal nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions. According to this memo, in order to meet seasonal NOx control in the summer, gas must be substituted for less-polluting energy sources. This switching is mandatory to lessen harm to the ozone layer and to reduce smog, which is a summer phenomenon.

In closing, GRI and EEA stated that their main interests are quantities of fuel consumption. As promised, shortly after the meeting, Mr. Bluestein forwarded information on cogeneration technologies and fuel switching, plus other information which may be of interest.

Contact:

robert.adler@eia.doe.gov

Robert Adler

Project Manager

Phone: (202) 586-1134

Fax: (202) 586-0018

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs91/consumption/mecs3i.html