Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/15/05

.UPDATE: WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...WHILE A PAIR OF STRONGER WAVES ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO WATERS. 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 120-140KT JET EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE A 130-150KT JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH...WHILE A 1015MB ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLELS THE CANADIAN BORDER.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATO CU SOUTH OF CHARLOTTESVILLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVERHEAD. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO ERODE THESE TUESDAY.

WINDS DID BECOME GUSTY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS LOOSE ENOUGH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ALLOW DECOUPLING. EXPECTING ANY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT TO BE VERY OCCSIONAL AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST.

ONLY MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY!

&&

.AVIATION: NO VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE CURRENT VALID TAF CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 15KT ACROSS BWI/DCA/MTN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. DECOUPLING HAS OCCURED AT KCHO...WHILE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BUT NOT AS GUSTY NEAR KMRB/KIAD WHERE THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS TIGHT.

&&

.MARINE: WINDS HAVE SLACKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE WATERS...SO HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 18Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ADJACENT LAND SITES DO SHOW WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT BEING REALIZED. KIAD EVENING ACARS AND 00Z RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO STORNG WITH THE WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A HALF FOOT OR LESS ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE MD...NONE VA...NONE WV...NONE MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI



.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOW INTO NW INDIANA. MID LEVEL DECK WITH BASE OF 7-8K AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW INTO WRN OHIO. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD ERODE SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIR. DONT EXPECT ANY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

WILL GET CLEARING BEHIND TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH GREAT LAKES TOMORROW WITH VFR/MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) UPDATE... LOW CLDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS E OF CLE TO HZY...YNG...ERI AND GKJ...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. TAMDAR DATA FROM THE TOL AND CLE AREAS INDICATING HIGHS LOWER 30S AND THE WINDS WERE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY 4000-5000 FEET ABOVE THE SFC. SFC RIDGE FROM MID MISS VALLEY TO THE LOCAL AREA. LOW PRESSURE AND TROF WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WAS MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY) UPDATE... SOME LAKE EFFECT CLDS MOVG INTO NE OH...THIS MAKE SENSE AS H8 AND LAKE TEMP DIF NR 12Z AND N2 FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM...CLDS MAY DCR ERN PTN OF FA AND THEN MID CLDS OVR IN MAY MOV IN. &&

.SHORT TERM (TDA THRU WED NIGHT) HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE WRN END OF LERI HAS KEPT SKIES CLR AND ALLOWED FOR JAN LIKE TEMPS THIS AM. LATEST STLT SHOWG JUST A COUPLE PATCHES OF CLDS FLOATING ACRS THE AREA. SUM OF THESE VSBL FM OUR ROOF THIS AM. UPSTREAM...AREA OF MID LVL CLDS JUST MOVG OVR LKMI. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OVR FA LATER TDA BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF SUNNY. DO EXCPT MID CLDS TO DSIPT SOMEWHAT AS THEY BUMP INTO HIGH. QUIET WX WL CONT TONIGHT. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOWG SUM INCRG MOIST LATE WED. A WEAK WAVE WL ROTATE THRU SO WL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES GOING TO THE E OF KCLE FOR TMRW NGT. OTHR THAN THAT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR THOSE WAITING FOR CLE TO BREAK IT/S ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD.

FOR WED...HI PRES WL RMN JUST TO THE N KEEPG AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY ELY FLOW. BOTH NAM AND GFS SWEEP INVER TROF ACRS LWR OH VLY WED INTO WED NGT. BUT HIGH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE S WHICH AGREES WITH BOTH MODEL PROGS.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE SPRING WL HAVE TO WAIT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU THRU SUN)... EXTENDED MODELS STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT ALL DO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS LW RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST. LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING AND TRACK VARY GREATLY. GFL HAS LOW TRACKING INTO KY WHILE THE EST KEEPS LOW IN CENTRAL GA. AS STRONG AS THE HIGH IS OVER LOWER LAKES...ETA SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. ETA DROPS SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER LAKES THRUSDAY...WHICH IS LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MADE FEW CHANGES TO THURSDAYS FORECAST. EXMWF MOVES ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY BUT GFSLR AND DGEX KEEPS HIGH PRESS OVER AREA SO KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER AREA NEXT WEEKEND...MOS WARMS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH STRONG NLY FLO AND CURRENT SNOW PACK I UNDERCUT MOS BY A SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...THOMPSON/KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB

$$



.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOW INTO NW INDIANA. MID LEVEL DECK WITH BASE OF 7-8K AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW INTO WRN OHIO. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD ERODE SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIR. DONT EXPECT ANY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

WILL GET CLEARING BEHIND TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH GREAT LAKES TOMORROW WITH VFR/MVFR CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) UPDATE... LOW CLDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS E OF CLE TO HZY...YNG...ERI AND GKJ...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. TAMDAR DATA FROM THE TOL AND CLE AREAS INDICATING HIGHS LOWER 30S AND THE WINDS WERE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY 4000-5000 FEET ABOVE THE SFC. SFC RIDGE FROM MID MISS VALLEY TO THE LOCAL AREA. LOW PRESSURE AND TROF WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WAS MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY) UPDATE... SOME LAKE EFFECT CLDS MOVG INTO NE OH...THIS MAKE SENSE AS H8 AND LAKE TEMP DIF NR 12Z AND N2 FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM...CLDS MAY DCR ERN PTN OF FA AND THEN MID CLDS OVR IN MAY MOV IN. &&

.SHORT TERM (TDA THRU WED NIGHT) HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE WRN END OF LERI HAS KEPT SKIES CLR AND ALLOWED FOR JAN LIKE TEMPS THIS AM. LATEST STLT SHOWG JUST A COUPLE PATCHES OF CLDS FLOATING ACRS THE AREA. SUM OF THESE VSBL FM OUR ROOF THIS AM. UPSTREAM...AREA OF MID LVL CLDS JUST MOVG OVR LKMI. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OVR FA LATER TDA BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF SUNNY. DO EXCPT MID CLDS TO DSIPT SOMEWHAT AS THEY BUMP INTO HIGH. QUIET WX WL CONT TONIGHT. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOWG SUM INCRG MOIST LATE WED. A WEAK WAVE WL ROTATE THRU SO WL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES GOING TO THE E OF KCLE FOR TMRW NGT. OTHR THAN THAT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR THOSE WAITING FOR CLE TO BREAK IT/S ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD.

FOR WED...HI PRES WL RMN JUST TO THE N KEEPG AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY ELY FLOW. BOTH NAM AND GFS SWEEP INVER TROF ACRS LWR OH VLY WED INTO WED NGT. BUT HIGH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE S WHICH AGREES WITH BOTH MODEL PROGS.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE SPRING WL HAVE TO WAIT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU THRU SUN)... EXTENDED MODELS STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT ALL DO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS LW RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST. LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING AND TRACK VARY GREATLY. GFL HAS LOW TRACKING INTO KY WHILE THE EST KEEPS LOW IN CENTRAL GA. AS STRONG AS THE HIGH IS OVER LOWER LAKES...ETA SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. ETA DROPS SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER LAKES THRUSDAY...WHICH IS LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MADE FEW CHANGES TO THURSDAYS FORECAST. EXMWF MOVES ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY BUT GFSLR AND DGEX KEEPS HIGH PRESS OVER AREA SO KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER AREA NEXT WEEKEND...MOS WARMS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH STRONG NLY FLO AND CURRENT SNOW PACK I UNDERCUT MOS BY A SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...THOMPSON/KUBINA LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...DJB

$$



.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA REACHING WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT'S ONLY FITTING THAT SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN...NOT TEMPERATURE WISE BUT PRECIPITATION WISE...THAT I WILL BE TALKING ABOUT A MARINE PUSH TONIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING MORE QUICKLY INLAND THAN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE GONE ONSHORE WITH A STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST. THE PUSH IS SHALLOW AND WEAK WITH THE KHQM-KSEA AND THE KUIL-KBLI PEAKING OUT BELOW PLUS 2 MB EARLY THIS EVENING. KUIL SOUNDING INDICATES TOPS ALONG THE COAST NEAR 2500 FEET. ACARS SOUNDINGS INTO KSEA AND KBFI SHOW THE WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY BUT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS UP TO 4000 FEET. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS IN THE INTERIOR STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MANY PLACES. WITH THIS SCENARIO THE STRATUS DECK COULD GET INLAND TO NEAR KOLM. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE YUKON-NORTHERN TERRITORIES BORDER STARTING TO MOVE SOUTH. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER LAND SO IT WILL BE HARD TO PICK UP MUCH PRECIPITATION AS IT REACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM GETS TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. FIRST LOOK AT THE MM5 GFS SHOWS A CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING THROUGH THE METRO AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. AFTER THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WITH THE JET AIMED DOWN AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. A PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT HAS MADE IT INTO NORTHERN PUGET SOUND. LIGHT NORTH WINDS NORTH OF SEATTLE THIS EVENING THEN ALL SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. COASTAL STRATUS WITH CIGS 008-012 WILL PUSH LOCALLY INTO THE SW INTERIOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS TONIGHT.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT.

.KATX...VCP32/CSR32 OPERATIONAL. &&

$$



.SYNOPSIS...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FAIR AND WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

DRY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE DEEP DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY...OR NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS LATER THIS MORNING. SUPPORT FOR THE WINDS IS DECREASING...SO WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBSIDENCE WARMING WILL BRING DECENT WARMING TO AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH WARMING EXTENDING TO THE COAST IN ORANGE COUNTY. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING TO COOL AS FLOW TURNS BACK WEAKLY ONSHORE.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MESOETA DEVELOPS A WEAK COASTAL EDDY. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. MESOETA SHOWS A STRONGER COASTAL EDDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONGER COASTAL EDDY AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND MORE RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPENING TO NEAR THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

MOIST UPPER TROUGH IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD BRING FAIR...WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND COACHELLA VALLEY UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TUESDAY...SEE LAXSRFSGX.

&&

$$

MARTIN



.UPDATED (THIS AFTERNOON)... BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ACARS DATA, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WE WILL BUMP UP WINDS A CATEGORY OR SO. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE UNDER THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

KRUZDLO

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... AT 400 AM, THERE WERE NO CLOUDS WITHIN A 200 MILE RADIUS OF PHL AND THE NEAREST CLOUDS WERE PATCHY IN NATURE. SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MIGHT BRING SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AND COULD GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE... WILL KEEP SCA UP ON THE OCEAN AND PUT THEM UP ON THE LOWER DEL BAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE LOWER BAY AND TO NEAR 30 KT ON THE OCEAN. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER SCA ON THE BAY...BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY (ZONES ANZ450>455-431).

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION/MARINE...RPW