SPC MCD 151841
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...UT...FAR SWRN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 151841Z - 151945Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
FORCED ASCENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL
MINI-SUPERCELL AND/OR LOW-TOPPED LINEAR MCS EVOLUTION. A WW WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
REMAINED CONCENTRATED IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS IN NRN AND ERN UT. THE
NRN AREA HAS REMAINED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM AROUND ENV TO EYW. OTHER SCT TSTMS WERE LOCATED FURTHER
SE...GENERALLY N OF I-70 NEAR MOAB. ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING FURTHER W ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL UT TO THE E
OF A N-S DRYLINE. HERE TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MODIFIED
12Z SLC SOUNDING INDICATES MLCAPES ARE AROUND 500 J/KG ATTM. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION MAY CONTINUE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
AROUND 100 TO 200 M2/S2 /PER MTX AND GJX VAD PROFILERS/ SHOULD
SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. WHILE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS FROM 1 TO 6 KM COULD SUPPORT A LOW-TOPPED
LINEAR MCS THREAT IF CONVECTION CAN SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZE.

..GRAMS.. 09/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...
41861010 40790924 38460923 37471017 37801205 38061323
40401365 40711361 41211325 42171182
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151858
SPC MCD 151858
NEZ000-KSZ000-152000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151858Z - 152000Z
WRN KS THROUGH CNTRL NEB ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB SWD THROUGH WRN KS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALSO EVIDENT E OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN NEB. A
STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS ADVECTED MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG AND JUST E OF THE DRYLINE
FROM WRN KS NWD INTO W CNTRL NEB. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A VORT MAX OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL NEB
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO FROM W CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS AS THE CAP WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.


..DIAL.. 09/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
39899868 37969973 37650141 39260093 40490085 41670098
42720098 42599917 41539854
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152133
SPC MCD 152133
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-152330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND
S-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152133Z - 152330Z
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ATTM WILL TEND TO MITIGATE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
WW.

CU DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG A DRY
LINE FROM NEAR GCK TO 50 W LBB. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AS
WELL...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AWAY FROM THIS REGION ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN SD. IMPLIED
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE...AS NOTED IN RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WILL TEND TO DETER VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH THROUGH
ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SHOULD MOVE EWD APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER 00Z.
THIS MAY HELP INDUCE LOW-LEVEL BACKING OF WINDS E OF THE DRYLINE
THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IF A STORM CAN INDEED DEVELOP.

..GRAMS.. 09/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
34650207 36180115 37450046 37960017 38079909 37799831
36599866 35629938 34430052 33530138 33620260
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152218
SPC MCD 152218
WYZ000-COZ000-160015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WY...WRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152218Z - 160015Z
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING
FACTOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER...ROBUST DYNAMICAL
FORCING AHEAD OF LARGE PACIFIC NW TROUGH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE TO THE E OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE
NEAR RIW FURTHER S ACROSS NWRN CO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS /PER GJX VAD PROFILER/
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
FROM 1 TO 6 KM WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL LOW-TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS WITH
A SEVERE WIND THREAT. THIS OCCURRED RECENTLY WITH A 54 KT GUST
REPORTED AT THE RIW ASOS AT 2145Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE WEAK
/MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/ WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND ONGOING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.


..GRAMS.. 09/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...
42230902 43450884 44020847 44280697 44030614 41930568
40110586 38370609 37990748 38570892 40550897
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152256
SPC MCD 152256
KSZ000-NEZ000-160100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...SRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152256Z - 160100Z
A TORNADO THREAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SRN NEB AND THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS NRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF
SUPERCELLS CAN INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH. A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN KS AND THE
TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB.

A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NEAR HASTINGS NEB IS LOCATED ALONG
THE WRN EDGE OF A MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD
AND THE TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 MORE HOURS. IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS INITIATE SWD ACROSS NRN KS...THE TORNADO THREAT
MAY SHIFT SWD. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE BETWEEN
00Z AND 02Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVES OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
GREATEST THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN KS...A FEW TORNADOES MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KT BY LATE EVENING. FALLING SFC TEMPS AND
LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS MAY ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT THIS
EVENING.


..BROYLES.. 09/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
38519728 38309838 38569954 39219990 39819995 40449957
40639913 40699835 40269732 39249695 38629723
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152334
SPC MCD 152334
COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-160100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

VALID 152334Z - 160100Z
SEVERE THREAT IN WW 766 SHOULD REMAINED CONFINED ACROSS NERN UT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE WW MAY BE CLEARED
PRIOR TO THE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME.

AT 2330Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAD BEEN
TRAINING ACROSS NERN UT FROM NEAR PRICE IN CARBON COUNTY NEWD TO
NEAR VERNAL IN UINTAH COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES FURTHER SWWD AHEAD OF A MID/LOW-LEVEL DRY PUNCH. GJX VAD
PROFILER REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...EVEN WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPES LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG/. AS THE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS NEWD THIS EVENING...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SW TO
NE.


..GRAMS.. 09/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
40930903 39640906 38340909 37690941 37971035 38521187
39491149 41021054
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160132
SPC MCD 160132
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0832 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SW MN...FAR ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160132Z - 160230Z
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WRN IA AND SW MN WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY INTO WCNTRL IA.

TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE ONGOING ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN NEB WITH ONE CLUSTER JUST WEST OF OMAHA
NEB AND ANOTHER JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS SD. ALTHOUGH THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH
TIME THIS EVENING...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS WRN IA AND SWRN MN. AS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED LATE THIS
EVENING...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE RUC AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON PROFILERS MAY KEEP AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 09/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
41169598 43369685 44449690 44919624 44659516 42439429
41199446 40979540
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160325
SPC MCD 160325
TXZ000-NMZ000-160530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

VALID 160325Z - 160530Z

...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH ISOLD SUPERCELLS ACROSS TX S
PLAINS...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW MAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS WATCH 770 IS ACROSS THE
TX S PLAINS...WITH A COUPLE LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS JUST WEST OF
LUBBOCK AND ACROSS TERRY CO...WHICH ARE WEAKENING. ANOTHER SUPERCELL
CONTINUES OVER NRN ANDREWS CO. ALTHOUGH 00Z SOUNDING DATA WAS NOT
AVAILABLE FOR MIDLAND...CURRENT VAD WIND DATA FROM MAF SUGGESTS
AROUND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS
LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE...WITH WEAKENING CELLS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT HAS ALREADY DECREASED ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE...AND THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED.
MAIN THREAT WITH EXISTING CELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

..TAYLOR.. 09/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...
31940183 31260322 31620395 33800264 34290221 34420138
34130091
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160459
SPC MCD 160459
NEZ000-160630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160459Z - 160630Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT BUT A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A WW MAY BE NEED ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE INITIATING ACROSS CNTRL NEB JUST EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1000-1500 J/KG. THE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY
WITH TIME MOVING EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION IS BECOMING REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS SHOWN ON
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.


..BROYLES.. 09/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
40289884 40319972 40779996 41729983 42639963 42709858
42389815 41839820 40689841
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160637
SPC MCD 160637
KSZ000-160730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH

VALID 160637Z - 160730Z
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PART
OF WW 773 THROUGH 08Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS THREAT TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THAT
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

AT 0630Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BARBER TO RUSSELL COUNTIES KS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS KS TO IA PER 55-60 KT SSWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STABILIZED...BUT
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THROUGH 12Z
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEYOND THE 08Z
EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 773. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WARRANT A NEW WW.


..PETERS.. 09/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
38329909 38609884 38989779 39029673 37939652 37419709
37389832 37519875
NNNN