AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUITE PEACEFUL THROUGHOUT
WESTERN KANSAS. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE ANTICIPATING THICKNESS
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A SPLIT FLOW NEAR 120W WITH A COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOUTHERN
STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO A MEAN TROUGH OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS EVIDENCED
BY EXTENSIVE STRATUS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS AND DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RIPPLE
EASTWARD AND TAP THE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN THE ACTIVE BRANCHES OF THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL EXPERIENCE BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
A FINAL BURST IN THE EAST ASIAN JET WAS EVIDENT NEAR THE DATELINE
WITH H250 WINDS 30 TO 35 METERS PER SECOND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. AS
THIS REGION OF STRONG WINDS PROPAGATES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
WITH TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 120W WILL BREAK DOWN...AND A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND
TO STRONG TROPICAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN BUBBLING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GWO PLOT ON THE CDC WEB SITE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN PHASE THREE...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT RETROGRESSION WILL OCCUR WITH A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING 130-140W AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS SOLUTION APPEARS VERY REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE
WITH SKILL AT THIS TIME.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...THE 12Z GFS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL
WITH THE STRONG EAST ASIAN JET OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASED ON
LIMITED AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE NAM
MAINTAINS MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 120W THAN
THE GFS...POSSIBLY BECAUSE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EAST ASIAN JET
THAT LIKELY IS NOT CAPTURED WELL BY THE NAM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE MORE QUICKLY. THE GFS WAS USED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AND A PORTION OF THE COLD AIR MASS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA WILL OOZE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE HAYS AREA LIKELY WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S BY MORNING...BUT ANY RESIDUAL SHALLOW COLD AIR
WILL ERODE QUICKLY ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POCKET PROPAGATES ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PROPAGATE OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS BY MORNING BUT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE PROPAGATES EASTWARD BEHIND THE MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN VALUES OBSERVED
SUNDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 150W BREAKS THROUGH THE
RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY...AND STRONG LEE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF QUITE WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. H8 TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 16C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.
DAYS 3-7...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CENTER AROUND PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM IN THE PLAINS AROUND DAY 8 IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT AROUND 150 DEG WEST
THAT WAS STARTING TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS
SOME AS IT PLOWS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THEN MOVES OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THIS WAVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF BUT AT THE SAME
TIME...MEAN RH VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR VIRGA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE REMOVED THE
WORDING FOR LIGHT SNOW.
THE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG
PACIFIC JET EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH
THE PAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DOESN`T LOOK REAL
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM YET BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFTED TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. GRIDS
CURRENTLY HAVE THIS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
WILL LEAVE AS IS.
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF THEN EJECT THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT INSTEAD OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE. THE
CANADIAN CONTINUES TO DIG THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO. A
LOOK AT THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THAT IDEA IS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLES TAKING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF SOUTH. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD TAKE THE
500 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE DDC CWA OR EVEN
FARTHER NORTH. WHILE THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN SW KANSAS I THINK THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE
PRETTY DECENT AT THIS TIME...ALONG WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE
IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM...WHATEVER IT WINDS UP BEING...WILL BE DURING
THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE IN MOST LOCATIONS
UNTIL AROUND 23Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 63 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 25 63 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 31 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 28 64 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 23 59 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
P28 30 62 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN01/02/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1005 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY WILL
BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS GUSTY WINDS BRING IN COLDER AIR.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST AND WILL LEAVE ALL FLAGS AS IS.
AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-81 HAVE SFC TEMPS GNRLY IN THE 30-32 RNG,
AND XPCT LTL CHG THIS AFTN. ACRS THESE AREAS, A MIX OF RAIN/FZRA
AND SLEET CAN BE XPCTD. AREAS TO THE SE WILL SEE RAIN AS THE
PRIMARY PCPN TYPE. POTNL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS MAY POSE SOME FLASHY HYDRO PRBLMS THIS AFTN/EVNG
AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVNG
BEHIND THE LOW. ISALLOBARIC FIELD LOOKS PRETTY GOOD BUT INITIAL
BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST LOW END ADVISORY. IN AGREEMENT WITH
BUF/ALY TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES ATTM...INITIAL THOUGHT
IS THAT 20-30G4O WOULD WORK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN
COMPLEXITY OF FCST ATTM WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL
CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES THIS AFTN. PREV BLO...
WK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVR THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MRNG HAS MVD
TO A POSN OFF OF CAPE COD. THIS HAS SERVED TO PULL IN A LITTLE BIT
CLDR AIR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAS ALSO TAKEN PCPN WITH IT AS IT
EXITS. RESPITE FROM THE PCPN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE IS MVG
QUICKLY NORTH THRU PA WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY NOTED OVR
CPA.
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVR THE TN VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW
MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR
VA/TN/NC BORDER. SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OF THE CTR AND TWD FA
WITH GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS OVR WV AT PRESENT. EXPECT THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE MVG NORTH AND EAST TODAY ALONG BOUNDARY. BOTH
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL POSN OF LOW THIS AFTN.
ONLY DIFFERENCE RMNS IN THE NAM DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITHIN 6 HRS THE PRIMARILY SFC LOW TAKES
OVR. GFS/SUPER ENSEMBLES/RUC DO NOT SEEM TO BE BUYING INTO THIS
SOLN AND HAVE THUS SIDED TWD GFS SOLN IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CTR FOR TODAY.
H5 LOW WILL EJECT NORTH TODAY AS NEXT S/WV DROPS INTO NRN PLAINS
AND KICKS IT OUT. LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
HEADS UP INTO THE OH VALLEY. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LOW CTR TRACKING WEST OF THE FA TODAY. H8/H7 CENTERS
ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU WRN NY/FINGER LAKES TODAY. AS H8 LOW
TRACKS NORTH...WINDS WILL BACK ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAWING WARMER
AIR INTO CNY AFTR ABOUT 15Z.
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE SITTING RIGHT ARND FZG. INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN
WILL MV IN BTWN 12Z-15Z. BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/RUC
INDICATE A MIX OF SLEET OR FZRA EARLY THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS PROFILE RMNS ISOTHERMAL PER
ACARS DATA. AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WARM LAYER AT 800MB
INCRS TO ARND +5C. FAR SRN AND ERN ZONES WILL RMN ABV FRZG AND
EXPECT ALL RAIN TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BLO ZERO AND LAPSE RATES INCRSG TO 6.5-7
FROM 15Z-21Z.
FURTHER NORTH...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO ALL RAIN
AFTER ABOUT 15Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY RMN
ARND FRZG FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPS ARND 32F...PCPN
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON SFCS AND EXPECT ICING OF ONLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS.
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH...FREEZING RAIN MAY HOLD ON
A LITTLE LONGER AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. UP TO
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHO VALLEY LOCATIONS
SHUD WARM UP ENUF TO SEE PLAIN RAIN.
THUS...HAVE LEFT WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE WHERE THEY
PREVIOUSLY WERE. DELAWARE COUNTY MAY BE A QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER SOME SPOTS MAY SEE SOME ICING BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO
INCLUDE THEM AS OF YET AS MOST OF THE COUNTY SHUD WARM UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY ALOFT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN...SCHUYLER...
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES.
VRY LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ICING AMNTS WILL NOT BE ENUF
TO PUSH THESE AREAS TO WARNING CRITERIA.
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...H8 JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS
THIS AFTN WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS H8 LOW MVS NORTH.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SRN STREAM SPEED MAX AND POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TODAY.
CUD SEE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BUT FEEL THE BETTER
CHC FOR HVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON TRACK
OF SFC LOW AND H8 SPEED MAX. MODELS HV COME IN LIGHTER ON QPF WITH
0.50-1.00 INCHES EXPECTED FROM I-81 CORRIDOR EAST. WITH RIVERS
STILL HIGH AND PROGGED TO RISE TO NR/ABV FLOOD STAGE ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP FLOOD
WATCH GOING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CANCEL
IT EARLY GIVEN PROGRESS OF HVY RAIN TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST FOR TONIGHT COMPLICATED WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMNTS/WARNING
CRITERIA PCPN. SFC LOW PASSES THRU THIS EVENING AND DRAWS COLD AIR IN
VRY QUICKLY. TEMPS ALOFT PLUMMET BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN
TO NR -15C AFTER 06Z. PCPN WILL CHG TO ALL SNOW OVR MOST OF CNY
AFTER 00Z. QPF FROM 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH GIVE ABOUT ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TREMENDOUS LIFT
BEING ADVERTISED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW GROWTH LAYER.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO DROP WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER...WRAP- ROUND OCCASIONALLY HAS A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
AREA...INTENSE LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVR NRN
SECTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WARNING GOING FROM YATES THRU
ONONDAGA AND NRN ONEIDA. THE BEST CHC FOR 12-HR WARNING CRITERIA
ACCUMS WILL BE FROM PENN YAN TO SYRACUSE TO BOONVILLE WITH 5-8
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE STORM DEPARTS THE AREA. PCPN WILL ONLY HV ABOUT A 4-6 HR
WINDOW TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO GET WARNING CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL ONLY SEE ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS
OVRNGT BUT SLEET AND FZRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WARRANTS KEEPING
HEADLINE RUNNING.
NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS BHND THE STORM. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ARND LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
INTO NRN VT. MODELS HINTING AT H8 WINDS OF 50KTS BLOWING THRU ON
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
OVERNIGHT OVR THE HILLTOPS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED
LATER ON. FOR THE TIME BEING...PREFER TO CVR POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT WINTER WX HEADLINES AND THE HWO. AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT - ONE MORE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF
KEEPING SOME PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.
THE SNOW SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW RAPIDLY MVS
NORTH AND EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY BUT CONDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVISORY ACCUMS
WITH THE SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY
AS HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM MIXED EVENT ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY...
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. IN
GENERAL...MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
INFLUENCE WX ACROSS CNY/NEPA WITH TRANSIENT WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING AT THIS TIME LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. COLD
ENOUGH FOR CHC SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SUN NITE AND
MONDAY. LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE ANY LES A LIGHT EVENT.
WEAK TROF/FRONT PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDS INTO
THURS. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL...THEN DECENT WAA AHEAD OF FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP MOVING BACK INTO ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CHALLENGE, BOTH FOR FLYING AND FOR FORECASTING. WILL
LIKELY SEE AN AVERAGE OF IFR CONDITIONS TODAY, ALTHOUGH
FLUCTUATIONS ON EITHER SIDE ARE EXPECTED. LOWEST CONDITIONS LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KBGM AND KITH WHERE LIFR WILL BE COMMON.
A MIX OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AT KSYR, KITH, KELM, KBGM...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. AT KAVP, ALL RAIN...BUT THERE
ARE A FEW TSRA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATION, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CB GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TAPERS OFF, WITH
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY, 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUES...MVFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-037-045-046-
055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
036-037-044>046-055-056.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVB
NEAR TERM...PVB
SHORT TERM...PVB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JML/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
638 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SPREAD
A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. AS WARM
AIR GETS WRAPPED UP AROUND THE STORM THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN BY NOON. SOME HIGHER HILLTOP
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN THE FINGER
LAKES...AND WORKING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND SUSQUEHANNA BASIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVR THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MRNG HAS MVD
TO A POSN OFF OF CAPE COD. THIS HAS SERVED TO PULL IN A LITTLE BIT
CLDR AIR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAS ALSO TAKEN PCPN WITH IT AS IT
EXITS. RESPITE FROM THE PCPN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE IS MVG
QUICKLY NORTH THRU PA WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY NOTED OVR
CPA.
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVR THE TN VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW
MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR
VA/TN/NC BORDER. SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OF THE CTR AND TWD FA
WITH GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS OVR WV AT PRESENT. EXPECT THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE MVG NORTH AND EAST TODAY ALONG BOUNDARY. BOTH
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL POSN OF LOW THIS AFTN.
ONLY DIFFERENCE RMNS IN THE NAM DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITHIN 6 HRS THE PRIMARILY SFC LOW TAKES
OVR. GFS/SUPER ENSEMBLES/RUC DO NOT SEEM TO BE BUYING INTO THIS
SOLN AND HAVE THUS SIDED TWD GFS SOLN IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CTR FOR TODAY.
H5 LOW WILL EJECT NORTH TODAY AS NEXT S/WV DROPS INTO NRN PLAINS
AND KICKS IT OUT. LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
HEADS UP INTO THE OH VALLEY. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LOW CTR TRACKING WEST OF THE FA TODAY. H8/H7 CENTERS
ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU WRN NY/FINGER LAKES TODAY. AS H8 LOW
TRACKS NORTH...WINDS WILL BACK ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAWING WARMER
AIR INTO CNY AFTR ABOUT 15Z.
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE SITTING RIGHT ARND FZG. INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN
WILL MV IN BTWN 12Z-15Z. BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/RUC
INDICATE A MIX OF SLEET OR FZRA EARLY THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS PROFILE RMNS ISOTHERMAL PER
ACARS DATA. AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WARM LAYER AT 800MB
INCRS TO ARND +5C. FAR SRN AND ERN ZONES WILL RMN ABV FRZG AND
EXPECT ALL RAIN TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BLO ZERO AND LAPSE RATES INCRSG TO 6.5-7
FROM 15Z-21Z.
FURTHER NORTH...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO ALL RAIN
AFTER ABOUT 15Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY RMN
ARND FRZG FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPS ARND 32F...PCPN
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON SFCS AND EXPECT ICING OF ONLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS.
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH...FREEZING RAIN MAY HOLD ON
A LITTLE LONGER AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. UP TO
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHO VALLEY LOCATIONS
SHUD WARM UP ENUF TO SEE PLAIN RAIN.
THUS...HAVE LEFT WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE WHERE THEY
PREVIOUSLY WERE. DELAWARE COUNTY MAY BE A QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER SOME SPOTS MAY SEE SOME ICING BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO
INCLUDE THEM AS OF YET AS MOST OF THE COUNTY SHUD WARM UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY ALOFT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN...SCHUYLER...
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES.
VRY LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ICING AMNTS WILL NOT BE ENUF
TO PUSH THESE AREAS TO WARNING CRITERIA.
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...H8 JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS
THIS AFTN WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS H8 LOW MVS NORTH.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SRN STREAM SPEED MAX AND POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TODAY.
CUD SEE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BUT FEEL THE BETTER
CHC FOR HVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON TRACK
OF SFC LOW AND H8 SPEED MAX. MODELS HV COME IN LIGHTER ON QPF WITH
0.50-1.00 INCHES EXPECTED FROM I-81 CORRIDOR EAST. WITH RIVERS
STILL HIGH AND PROGGED TO RISE TO NR/ABV FLOOD STAGE ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP FLOOD
WATCH GOING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CANCEL
IT EARLY GIVEN PROGRESS OF HVY RAIN TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST FOR TONIGHT COMPLICATED WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMNTS/WARNING
CRITERIA PCPN. SFC LOW PASSES THRU THIS EVENING AND DRAWS COLD AIR IN
VRY QUICKLY. TEMPS ALOFT PLUMMET BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN
TO NR -15C AFTER 06Z. PCPN WILL CHG TO ALL SNOW OVR MOST OF CNY
AFTER 00Z. QPF FROM 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH GIVE ABOUT ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TREMENDOUS LIFT
BEING ADVERTISED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW GROWTH LAYER.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO DROP WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER...WRAP- ROUND OCCASIONALLY HAS A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
AREA...INTENSE LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVR NRN
SECTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WARNING GOING FROM YATES THRU
ONONDAGA AND NRN ONEIDA. THE BEST CHC FOR 12-HR WARNING CRITERIA
ACCUMS WILL BE FROM PENN YAN TO SYRACUSE TO BOONVILLE WITH 5-8
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE STORM DEPARTS THE AREA. PCPN WILL ONLY HV ABOUT A 4-6 HR
WINDOW TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO GET WARNING CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL ONLY SEE ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS
OVRNGT BUT SLEET AND FZRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WARRANTS KEEPING
HEADLINE RUNNING.
NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS BHND THE STORM. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ARND LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
INTO NRN VT. MODELS HINTING AT H8 WINDS OF 50KTS BLOWING THRU ON
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
OVERNIGHT OVR THE HILLTOPS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED
LATER ON. FOR THE TIME BEING...PREFER TO CVR POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT WINTER WX HEADLINES AND THE HWO. AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT - ONE MORE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF
KEEPING SOME PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.
THE SNOW SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW RAPIDLY MVS
NORTH AND EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY BUT CONDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVISORY ACCUMS
WITH THE SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY
AS HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM MIXED EVENT ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY...
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. IN
GENERAL...MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
INFLUENCE WX ACROSS CNY/NEPA WITH TRANSIENT WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING AT THIS TIME LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. COLD
ENOUGH FOR CHC SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SUN NITE AND
MONDAY. LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE ANY LES A LIGHT EVENT.
WEAK TROF/FRONT PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDS INTO
THURS. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL...THEN DECENT WAA AHEAD OF FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIP MOVING BACK INTO ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CHALLENGE, BOTH FOR FLYING AND FOR FORECASTING. WILL
LIKELY SEE AN AVERAGE OF IFR CONDITIONS TODAY, ALTHOUGH
FLUCTUATIONS ON EITHER SIDE ARE EXPECTED. LOWEST CONDITIONS LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KBGM AND KITH WHERE LIFR WILL BE COMMON.
A MIX OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AT KSYR, KITH, KELM, KBGM...CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. AT KAVP, ALL RAIN...BUT THERE
ARE A FEW TSRA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATION, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CB GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TAPERS OFF, WITH
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY, 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUES...MVFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-037-045-046-
055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
036-037-044>046-055-056.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVB
NEAR TERM...PVB
SHORT TERM...PVB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JML/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
539 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SPREAD
A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. AS WARM
AIR GETS WRAPPED UP AROUND THE STORM THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN BY NOON. SOME HIGHER HILLTOP
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN THE FINGER
LAKES...AND WORKING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND SUSQUEHANNA BASIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVR THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MRNG HAS MVD
TO A POSN OFF OF CAPE COD. THIS HAS SERVED TO PULL IN A LITTLE BIT
CLDR AIR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAS ALSO TAKEN PCPN WITH IT AS IT
EXITS. RESPITE FROM THE PCPN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE IS MVG
QUICKLY NORTH THRU PA WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY NOTED OVR
CPA.
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVR THE TN VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW
MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR
VA/TN/NC BORDER. SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OF THE CTR AND TWD FA
WITH GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS OVR WV AT PRESENT. EXPECT THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE MVG NORTH AND EAST TODAY ALONG BOUNDARY. BOTH
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL POSN OF LOW THIS AFTN.
ONLY DIFFERENCE RMNS IN THE NAM DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITHIN 6 HRS THE PRIMARILY SFC LOW TAKES
OVR. GFS/SUPER ENSEMBLES/RUC DO NOT SEEM TO BE BUYING INTO THIS
SOLN AND HAVE THUS SIDED TWD GFS SOLN IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CTR FOR TODAY.
H5 LOW WILL EJECT NORTH TODAY AS NEXT S/WV DROPS INTO NRN PLAINS
AND KICKS IT OUT. LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
HEADS UP INTO THE OH VALLEY. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LOW CTR TRACKING WEST OF THE FA TODAY. H8/H7 CENTERS
ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU WRN NY/FINGER LAKES TODAY. AS H8 LOW
TRACKS NORTH...WINDS WILL BACK ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAWING WARMER
AIR INTO CNY AFTR ABOUT 15Z.
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE SITTING RIGHT ARND FZG. INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN
WILL MV IN BTWN 12Z-15Z. BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/RUC
INDICATE A MIX OF SLEET OR FZRA EARLY THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS PROFILE RMNS ISOTHERMAL PER
ACARS DATA. AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WARM LAYER AT 800MB
INCRS TO ARND +5C. FAR SRN AND ERN ZONES WILL RMN ABV FRZG AND
EXPECT ALL RAIN TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BLO ZERO AND LAPSE RATES INCRSG TO 6.5-7
FROM 15Z-21Z.
FURTHER NORTH...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO ALL RAIN
AFTER ABOUT 15Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY RMN
ARND FRZG FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPS ARND 32F...PCPN
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON SFCS AND EXPECT ICING OF ONLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS.
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH...FREEZING RAIN MAY HOLD ON
A LITTLE LONGER AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. UP TO
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHO VALLEY LOCATIONS
SHUD WARM UP ENUF TO SEE PLAIN RAIN.
THUS...HAVE LEFT WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE WHERE THEY
PREVIOUSLY WERE. DELAWARE COUNTY MAY BE A QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER SOME SPOTS MAY SEE SOME ICING BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO
INCLUDE THEM AS OF YET AS MOST OF THE COUNTY SHUD WARM UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY ALOFT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN...SCHUYLER...
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES.
VRY LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ICING AMNTS WILL NOT BE ENUF
TO PUSH THESE AREAS TO WARNING CRITERIA.
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...H8 JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS
THIS AFTN WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS H8 LOW MVS NORTH.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SRN STREAM SPEED MAX AND POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TODAY.
CUD SEE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BUT FEEL THE BETTER
CHC FOR HVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON TRACK
OF SFC LOW AND H8 SPEED MAX. MODELS HV COME IN LIGHTER ON QPF WITH
0.50-1.00 INCHES EXPECTED FROM I-81 CORRIDOR EAST. WITH RIVERS
STILL HIGH AND PROGGED TO RISE TO NR/ABV FLOOD STAGE ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP FLOOD
WATCH GOING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CANCEL
IT EARLY GIVEN PROGRESS OF HVY RAIN TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST FOR TONIGHT COMPLICATED WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMNTS/WARNING
CRITERIA PCPN. SFC LOW PASSES THRU THIS EVENING AND DRAWS COLD AIR IN
VRY QUICKLY. TEMPS ALOFT PLUMMET BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN
TO NR -15C AFTER 06Z. PCPN WILL CHG TO ALL SNOW OVR MOST OF CNY
AFTER 00Z. QPF FROM 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH GIVE ABOUT ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TREMENDOUS LIFT
BEING ADVERTISED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW GROWTH LAYER.
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO DROP WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER...WRAP- ROUND OCCASIONALLY HAS A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
AREA...INTENSE LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVR NRN
SECTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WARNING GOING FROM YATES THRU
ONONDAGA AND NRN ONEIDA. THE BEST CHC FOR 12-HR WARNING CRITERIA
ACCUMS WILL BE FROM PENN YAN TO SYRACUSE TO BOONVILLE WITH 5-8
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE STORM DEPARTS THE AREA. PCPN WILL ONLY HV ABOUT A 4-6 HR
WINDOW TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO GET WARNING CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL ONLY SEE ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS
OVRNGT BUT SLEET AND FZRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WARRANTS KEEPING
HEADLINE RUNNING.
NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS BHND THE STORM. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ARND LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
INTO NRN VT. MODELS HINTING AT H8 WINDS OF 50KTS BLOWING THRU ON
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
OVERNIGHT OVR THE HILLTOPS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED
LATER ON. FOR THE TIME BEING...PREFER TO CVR POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT WINTER WX HEADLINES AND THE HWO. AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT - ONE MORE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF
KEEPING SOME PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.
THE SNOW SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW RAPIDLY MVS
NORTH AND EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY BUT CONDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVISORY ACCUMS
WITH THE SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY
AS HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM MIXED EVENT ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY...
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. IN
GENERAL...MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
INFLUENCE WX ACROSS CNY/NEPA WITH TRANSIENT WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING AT THIS TIME LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. COLD
ENOUGH FOR CHC SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SUN NITE AND
MONDAY. LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE ANY LES A LIGHT EVENT.
WEAK TROF/FRONT PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDS INTO
THURS. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL...THEN DECENT WAA AHEAD OF FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP FROM CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM HAS TAPERED OFF, SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAVE LOW CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF MORE STEADY PRECIP. A WIDE VARIETY OF CEILINGS AND
VISBY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ANYTHING FROM MVFR TO VLIFR...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEV SITES OF KITH AND KBGM. THEREFORE HAVE PLENTY OF
TEMPO GROUPS IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE IN AROUND MID MORNING
TODAY...WITH MORE LOW CEILINGS AND VISBYS. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR ELM-
SYR- RME TO HAVE MAJORITY OF TIME IN WINTRY MIX. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT FZRA AT ELM...WITH MORE OF A
SNOW/SLEET SITUATION AT SYR- RME -ITH...ALTHOUGH THESE STATIONS
WILL ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF -FZRA MAINLY THIS MORNING. BGM WILL BE
MOST TRANSITORY...DOMINATED MAINLY BY RAIN/FZRA...AND AVP WILL
REMAIN RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NITE...IFR/MVFR BECOMING VFR. SNOW DIMINISHING. LAKE EFFECT
SHSN MAY LINGER SYR-RME.
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUES...MVFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDS...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCHES TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMNTS APPCHG 1.50 INCHES OVR THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN.
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AND MANY WILL APPCH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEKEND. UPDATED RIVER STATEMENTS ARE OUT AND WILL BE UPDATED
LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-037-045-046-
055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
036-037-044>046-055-056.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVB
NEAR TERM...PVB
SHORT TERM...PVB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JML/TAC
|