Forecast for 17 July 1998 by Don Wylie

Don's Weather Discussion Friday 17 July 1998, 19:00 UT

SHEBA reported fog yesterday afternoon at 00 UT and during the night at 06 UT. Visibilities dropped to 0.1 mile at 00 UT. This morning they reported 4 mile visibility and fog. The barometer is rising slowly as the high approaches. Winds have been light, 0-8 kts and temperatures nearly constant between +1 and -1 C. This morning SHEBA ship appears to be in a hole between stratus clouds to the north and west and other stratus with some cirrus to the southeast. Stratus could be seen over the ship on satellite images during the night.

The high to the east continues to build. The main center will stay in the Canadian Islands but part of it will extend to the west over SHEBA ship. The upper air pattern shows a high building in the Beaufort Sea extending northwest over the ship. These highs will build into Sunday morning. Then they will retreat to the east on Monday and Tuesday giving way to a weak low or depression to the northwest.

Saturday, cloud cover decreasing above the boundary layer. Some boundary layer fog and stratus may remain. Winds will be light at the surface, 0-5 kts and probably from the south. Upper air winds will probably be from the southwest. Temperatures will stay around 0 to -1 C.

Sunday, clouds rebuilding late in the day as the western extension of the high retreats eastward. Fog is also possible. Winds will be light and probably southeasterly.

Monday, cirrus moving up from the south with broken patches of stratus. Surface winds will be light and from the southeast.

Tuesday will be cloudy as the ECMWF shows a weak low over SHEBA ship.

Barrow

Stratus overcast and fog covered Barrow during the night. Ceilings dropped to 100' for most of the night. The stratus still covers Barrow this morning. Temperatures have been in the low 40's (F) and the winds have been easterly at 14 kts. The NWS forecast is:

.TODAY...FOG THIS MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY NOON. EAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH FOG. EAST WIND 20 MPH. LOW NEAR 40. .SATURDAY...FOG. BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER NOON. EAST WIND 20 MPH. HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.

This is a reasonable forecast that predicts nocturnal stratus and fog burning off during the day. Barrow will benefit from the high growing in the Beaufort Sea and will probably become sunny both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

FAIRBANKS AND VICINITY FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 530 AM ADT FRI JUL 17 1998

.THIS MORNING...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AFTER. SOUTHWEST WIND TO 10 MPH. .THIS AFTERNOON...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. HIGH NEAR 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS. LOW 50 TO 55. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

don