AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THOUGH THIS EVENING...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND EFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY AFTN ANALYSIS DEPICTS INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC FROM
DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...ALOFT AN UPR TROF WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE AREA
INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND A SMALLER UPR LOW OVER THE ERN GRT LKS/OH
VLY.
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WRT HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW TRACK/TIMING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A CHALLENGING
FORECAST. LOCAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN SHIELD STRUGGLING TO
MAKE INROADS INTO NORTHERN CWA...WITH RAINFALL AMTS <0.10 OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN/FAR NWRN TIER OF CWA. LOOK AT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
AIR ABOVE H9 HAVING TOUGH TIME BEING DISLODGED. THIS COULD BE A
LINGERING AFFECT OF ANTECEDENT UPR RIDGING NOTED EARLIER THIS
WEEK. ALSO NOTE GENERAL SW FLOW IN LAPS/ACARS SNDINGS IN UPR
LEVELS (H5 AND UP) FROM UPR LOW OVER OH. EITHER WAY...PCPN HAS
BEEN STEADIER AND MORE FREQUENT SOUTH OF FVX-PTB-WAL
LINE...CLOSER TO BEST CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. DRY SLOT
OVER THIS AREA ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FILLING BACK IN
ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH ERY EVENING.
GFS AND EURO IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND SEEM TO BE VERIFYING
BETTER THAN NAM THUS FAR TDA. APPEARS THAT A BLEND OF THESE
SOLNS...ALONG WITH THE SREF FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...WERE USED
TDA WHERE POSSIBLE. THIS SOLN WOULD KEEP DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACK
AND HEAVIEST RAINS OFFSHORE.
TONIGHT...ONGOING LGT PCPN (-DZ/-RA) FROM CONTINUING ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE CWA. GFS/SREF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND BOLSTER THE IDEA THAT DZ/-RA SHUD CONTINUE THRU 00Z. AS
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
PW VALUES (INTO 1.5-2" RANGE) FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER SERN VA INTO NE
NC. THIS AREA IS WHERE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MORE ON
THAT IN A MOMENT.
KEPT PCPN LIGHT THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT (INCL N AND
W OF METRO RIC). GFS/SREF FEATURE A VERY TIGHT PCPN GRADIENT FROM
LITTLE OVER THE WEST TO HIGHEST AMOUNTS WELL EAST OF I-95. STUCK
WITH PERIODS OF -L/-R OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA INCLUDING TIDEWATER AND NE NC. AGREE WITH LATEST
HPCQPF DISCUSSION THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE (OVR GULF
STREAM ATTM) MAY WELL ROB HEADLINE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED
PRVSLY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR...CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING IN D2
DROUGHT AREA (MUCH OF OUR NC COUNTIES) IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...AS
NOTED ABOVE...RAPIDLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW (SEE GFS DEPICTION
OF LLJ OF 50-60 KT OVERNIGHT) AND GOOD AMOUNT OF LIFT NOTED ON
12Z 4NOV GFS AFTER 06Z WED WOULD AT LEAST ARGUE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL AND...CONCEIVABLY A SHOT AT
SOME URBANIZED FLOODING IN USUAL SPOTS ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AREA
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED MORNING. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
MHX...DECIDED AGAINST ALTERING EXISTING FLOOD WATCH AND/OR
SWITCHING TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIDSTREAM. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO REASSESS HEADLINE AS NEEDED AS TRENDS EVOLVE.
AS TO TOTAL EVENT QPF...WITH BEST RAINS SEEMINGLY STILL
OFFSHORE...LOWERED QPF SLIGHTLY. CONTINUED IDEA OF AN AVERAGE OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER SE CWA (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE) THROUGH 12Z WED. A GENERAL HALF INCH TO AROUND 1.5 INCH
TOTAL (FROM WEST TO EAST) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...KEPT LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. LOWS GENERALLS IN THE L-M 50S WEST...NEAR 60
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND DEEPENING LOW OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z...WITH LOW
LVL BACKING TO THE N/NE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. GFS H85-92 WNDS ARE
ARND 50-55KT...WITH ADEQUATE MOMENTUM XFER FOR WND ADVY CRITERIA
OVER IMMEDIATE SHORELINE (AT THE LEAST). WL POST WND ADVY FOR
CURRITUCK CTY NC FOR NOW...WITH THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST (PERHAPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17?) LATER ON TONIGHT IF FORECASTED TRENDS
PERSIST.
WED AFTN-FRI...THINGS DRY OUT FROM SW TO NE TOMORROW AFTN INTO
THU AS LOW ACCELERATES AWAY TO THE N AND E. TEMP FORECAST WED-
FRIDAY GREATLY DEPENDANT UPON THE SPEED/EXTENT OF CLEARING. USED
LCL THKNS SCHEMES TO ARRIVE AT HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LWR 60S (MID
60S S). RIDGING BUILDS IN BREIFLY FROM THE WEST FOR THU/FRI.
BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE 60S NW TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE ON THU...AND
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRES FINALLY PULLS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THIS
TIME...THEN LOW PRES MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THRU THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
GFS/EURO HAVE OPTED FOR DEEPER/SLOWER SOLNS FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT
GFS NOW MOVING AN INCREASINGLY DRY FRONT THRU THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR THIS REASON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS DRAMATICALLY...GENERALLY
KEPT IN THE RANGE OF LOW CHC THRU SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS AOB CLIMO
SAT...DROPPING TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S SUN/MON POST FROPA. LOW TEMPS
FAIRLY MILD FRIDAY IN THE 50S...THEN DROPPING OFF TO AOB CLIMO LOWS
FOR SAT/SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH SCT AREAS OF
LGT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS MAINLY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NC EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWERING
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT
EASTERN PORTIONS ON WED WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AT ECG...PHF AND ORF TUE MORNING AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND 925 MB WINDS TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS OR HIGHER
DURING MUCH OF WED ACCORDING TO THE NAM.
AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR OR IFR WED NIGHT IMPR
SLOWLY ON THU. ETA MOS KEEPS IFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY THU BUT
CONDITIONS MAY IMPR A LITTLE QUICKER AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO
THE EAST.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRI BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
PPEARS MDL TO LEAN TOWARD IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE GFS. LOW PRES
OFFSHORE NC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STREGTHEN...BUT NOT AS QUICK (OR
STRONG) AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM. CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SECTION OF
CHES BAY...AND EVEN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...WE ARE BARELY REACHING
SCA CRITERIA...BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS LOW SLOWLY STREGTHENS
AND GRADIENT PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT.
BASED ON STRONG LLVL WINDS...ESPECIALLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS...HV
RAISED THE GALE FLAG FOR LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL SRN
WATERS...INCLUDING CURRITUCK SND AND SRN CHES BAY. (SRN CHES BAY MAY
SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS BY EARLY WED MORNING.) WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO
RUN HIGH...SO UNDERCUT SEAS BY 2 TO 3 FT THRU WED BASED ON TRENDS
THUS FAR.
NRN COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO GET THOSE GALE FORCE GUSTS BY LATE
WED MORN/EARLY AFTN AROUND 35-40 KT.
A HIGH SURF ADVSY WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD INCLUDING VA
BEACH....COASTAL VA/MD THRU WED NIGHT...AS NEAR SHORE WAVES APPROACH
8 TO 10 FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
THRU WED...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL NC/VA AND
MD. GUIDANCE KEEPS TIDE ANOMALIES ABOUT 0.5 FOOT BLW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS...SO FOR NOW WILL MENTION TIDES 1 TO UP TO 2 FT
ABV NORMAL IN CWF...AND REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVSY
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MDZ025.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ014>017-031-032-
102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ091-093>098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THOUGH THIS EVENING...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND EFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTN ANALYSIS DEPICTS INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC FROM
DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...ALOFT AN UPR TROF WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE AREA
INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND A SMALLER UPR LOW OVER THE ERN GRT LKS/OH
VLY.
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WRT HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW TRACK/TIMING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A CHALLENGING
FORECAST. LOCAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN SHIELD STRUGGLING TO
MAKE INROADS INTO NORTHERN CWA...WITH RAINFALL AMTS <0.10 OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN/FAR NWRN TIER OF CWA. LOOK AT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
AIR ABOVE H9 HAVING TOUGH TIME BEING DISLODGED. THIS COULD BE A
LINGERING AFFECT OF ANTECEDENT UPR RIDGING NOTED EARLIER THIS
WEEK. ALSO NOTE GENERAL SW FLOW IN LAPS/ACARS SNDINGS IN UPR
LEVELS (H5 AND UP) FROM UPR LOW OVER OH. EITHER WAY...PCPN HAS
BEEN STEADIER AND MORE FREQUENT SOUTH OF FVX-PTB-WAL
LINE...CLOSER TO BEST CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. DRY SLOT
OVER THIS AREA ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FILLING BACK IN
ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH ERY EVENING.
GFS AND EURO IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND SEEM TO BE VERIFYING
BETTER THAN NAM THUS FAR TDA. APPEARS THAT A BLEND OF THESE
SOLNS...ALONG WITH THE SREF FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...WERE USED
TDA WHERE POSSIBLE. THIS SOLN WOULD KEEP DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACK
AND HEAVIEST RAINS OFFSHORE.
TONIGHT...ONGOING LGT PCPN (-DZ/-RA) FROM CONTINUING ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE CWA. GFS/SREF LOOK PRETTY CLOSE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND BOLSTER THE IDEA THAT DZ/-RA SHUD CONTINUE THRU 00Z. AS
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
PW VALUES (INTO 1.5-2" RANGE) FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER SERN VA INTO NE
NC. THIS AREA IS WHERE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MORE ON
THAT IN A MOMENT.
KEPT PCPN LIGHT THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT (INCL N AND
W OF METRO RIC). GFS/SREF FEATURE A VERY TIGHT PCPN GRADIENT FROM
LITTLE OVER THE WEST TO HIGHEST AMOUNTS WELL EAST OF I-95. STUCK
WITH PERIODS OF -L/-R OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA INCLUDING TIDEWATER AND NE NC. AGREE WITH LATEST
HPCQPF DISCUSSION THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE (OVR GULF
STREAM ATTM) MAY WELL ROB HEADLINE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED
PRVSLY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR...CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING IN D2
DROUGHT AREA (MUCH OF OUR NC COUNTIES) IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...AS
NOTED ABOVE...RAPIDLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW (SEE GFS DEPICTION
OF LLJ OF 50-60 KT OVERNIGHT) AND GOOD AMOUNT OF LIFT NOTED ON
12Z 4NOV GFS AFTER 06Z WED WOULD AT LEAST ARGUE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL AND...CONCEIVABLY A SHOT AT
SOME URBANIZED FLOODING IN USUAL SPOTS ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AREA
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED MORNING. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
MHX...DECIDED AGAINST ALTERING EXISTING FLOOD WATCH AND/OR
SWITCHING TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIDSTREAM. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO REASSESS HEADLINE AS NEEDED AS TRENDS EVOLVE.
AS TO TOTAL EVENT QPF...WITH BEST RAINS SEEMINGLY STILL
OFFSHORE...LOWERED QPF SLIGHTLY. CONTINUED IDEA OF AN AVERAGE OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER SE CWA (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE) THROUGH 12Z WED. A GENERAL HALF INCH TO AROUND 1.5 INCH
TOTAL (FROM WEST TO EAST) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...KEPT LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. LOWS GENERALLS IN THE L-M 50S WEST...NEAR 60
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND DEEPENING LOW OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z...WITH LOW
LVL BACKING TO THE N/NE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. GFS H85-92 WNDS ARE
ARND 50-55KT...WITH ADEQUATE MOMENTUM XFER FOR WND ADVY CRITERIA
OVER IMMEDIATE SHORELINE (AT THE LEAST). WL POST WND ADVY FOR
CURRITUCK CTY NC FOR NOW...WITH THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST (PERHAPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17?) LATER ON TONIGHT IF FORECASTED TRENDS
PERSIST.
WED AFTN-FRI...THINGS DRY OUT FROM SW TO NE TOMORROW AFTN INTO
THU AS LOW ACCELERATES AWAY TO THE N AND E. TEMP FORECAST WED-
FRIDAY GREATLY DEPENDANT UPON THE SPEED/EXTENT OF CLEARING. USED
LCL THKNS SCHEMES TO ARRIVE AT HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LWR 60S (MID
60S S). RIDGING BUILDS IN BREIFLY FROM THE WEST FOR THU/FRI.
BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE 60S NW TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE ON THU...AND
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRES FINALLY PULLS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THIS
TIME...THEN LOW PRES MOVING E/NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THRU THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
GFS/EURO HAVE OPTED FOR DEEPER/SLOWER SOLNS FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT
GFS NOW MOVING AN INCREASINGLY DRY FRONT THRU THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR THIS REASON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS DRAMATICALLY...GENERALLY
KEPT IN THE RANGE OF LOW CHC THRU SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS AOB CLIMO
SAT...DROPPING TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S SUN/MON POST FROPA. LOW TEMPS
FAIRLY MILD FRIDAY IN THE 50S...THEN DROPPING OFF TO AOB CLIMO LOWS
FOR SAT/SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CNDTNS OVR RGN ATTM XCPT FOR ECG WHERE CIGS HAVE
REMAINED ABV 3K FT. XPCT CIGS AOB 1K FT...AND LGT TO MDT RAIN /
FOG TO REDUCE VSBYS TO BTWN 2-5SM THRU FCST PRD. SOME AREAS OF +RA
ACROSS SERN TAF SITES CUD REDUCE VSBYS EVEN FRTHR. GUSTS AOA 20KTS
ALRDY NOTED ACROSS NRN OB AND THESE GUSTY WNDS WILL CONT TO MOVE N
AS DAY PROGRESSES.
WDSPRD RAIN / IFR CNDTNS CONTINUE INTO WED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON
THU AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE LOW DEEPENS WITH TIME AND
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG WED AND THU WITH THE DIRECTION
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE NE TO THE N OR NW.
&&
.MARINE...
PPEARS MDL TO LEAN TOWARD IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE GFS. LOW PRES
OFFSHORE NC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STREGTHEN...BUT NOT AS QUICK (OR
STRONG) AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM. CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SECTION OF
CHES BAY...AND EVEN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...WE ARE BARELY REACHING
SCA CRITERIA...BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS LOW SLOWLY STREGTHENS
AND GRADIENT PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT.
BASED ON STRONG LLVL WINDS...ESPECIALLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS...HV
RAISED THE GALE FLAG FOR LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL SRN
WATERS...INCLUDING CURRITUCK SND AND SRN CHES BAY. (SRN CHES BAY MAY
SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS BY EARLY WED MORNING.) WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO
RUN HIGH...SO UNDERCUT SEAS BY 2 TO 3 FT THRU WED BASED ON TRENDS
THUS FAR.
NRN COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO GET THOSE GALE FORCE GUSTS BY LATE
WED MORN/EARLY AFTN AROUND 35-40 KT.
A HIGH SURF ADVSY WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD INCLUDING VA
BEACH....COASTAL VA/MD THRU WED NIGHT...AS NEAR SHORE WAVES APPROACH
8 TO 10 FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
THRU WED...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL NC/VA AND
MD. GUIDANCE KEEPS TIDE ANOMALIES ABOUT 0.5 FOOT BLW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS...SO FOR NOW WILL MENTION TIDES 1 TO UP TO 2 FT
ABV NORMAL IN CWF...AND REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVSY
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MDZ025.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ014>017-031-032-
102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ091-093>098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1120 AM EST MON NOV 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRES OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WEDGING SOUTH AND WEST INTO MID ATLANTIC AND BACK INTO THE
TN VLY. FARTHER SOUTH...INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRES SETTING UP AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER OVER INLAND CTYS WITH DEVELOPING COOL
AIR WEDGE SETTING UP. STILL VRY DRY ABV H8 ACCORDING TO LAPS/ACARS
SOUNDINGS...BUT WILL ADD PATCHY DZ WORDING OVER INLAND VA
COUNTIES BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH
IT. CLDS TO THE SOUTH STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW...AND HV UPPED CLD CVG HERE.
ACCORDINGLY DROPPED LOWS OVER SE VA/NC COUNTIES A FEW
DEGREES...WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE GENLY IN THE MID-UPR 60S (L-M
60S INLAND).
DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...WHERE WE ARE GETTING A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF MIXING AND THUS SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLDS BIT
MORE THAN PRVSLY EXPECTED. THIS WL SLOW THE INCREASE IN CLDS...BUT
NOT POSTPONE IT. ZONES READ CLDY FOR MOST OF MD COUNTIES...AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST LLVLS SHUD STILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT THIS
AFTN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DZ HERE EITHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WL HOLD OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SHUD BE
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS OR SO OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...AND
MID TO UPR 60S SHUD CVR IT IN MOST SPOTS.
ZFPAKQ SENT 1048 EST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE WENT WITH MAINLY A SREF/ECMWF SOLN WITH HANDLING OF LOW PRES
DVLPG OFF THE SE COAST AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH IT. BASED ON TRENDS ON SAT AND OTHER SHRT TERM GUIDANCE
SUSPECT INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE
NORTHWARD THAN PREV THOUGHT. IN TURN HAVE INCREASES POPS ALONG THE
SE COAST LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS MORE OF A NWD/WWD TREND
IS ANTICIPATED WITH COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED PRECIP BY TUE AM
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF VA AND UP TO A HALF INCH OVER NC ZONES.
TUE AND WED REALLY DEPEND ON STRENGTH/TRACK AND NWRD SPEED OF
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE CAROLINAS/VA/MD COAST. THINKING MORE
OF AN INTERACTION DVLPS BETWEEN COASTAL LOW AND THE NRN UPR LVL TROF
DIGGING OVER THE GRT LAKS/MIDWEST. THE MORE INTERACTION THAT DVLPS
THE MORE LIFT AND ADDED FORCING CAN OCCUR...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL
CONCENTRATED AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS/SE VA COAST.
ON AVG AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIP IS NOW EXPECTED OVER SE
VA/NE NC TUE-WED (0.5 UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA).
THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND THE USUAL URBANIZED AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING (GENERALLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
COAST). LOOK FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER SE VA/NE NC AS LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES NEAR THE NC/VA COAST THU SLOLY MVS E AWAY FM CST THU NGT
THROUGH FRI. EXACT LCTN/STRNGTH/TRACK OF SYS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WL CONT TRENDING POPS UP WED NGT INTO THU...B4
LWRG THU NGT. CDFNT APPROACHES FM W FRI...AMT OF WRMG AHD OF FNT
IN QUESTION ATTM. TMG OF FNTL PASSAGE A LTL SLOER TDA FOR FRI NGT
INTO SAT...WL INCLD LO CHC POPS W/ FNTL PASSAGE. DRYING
OUT/COOLING BY LTR SAT AND SUN. HV LEANED TWD HPC TEMP
GUID...TEMPS WL AVG SVRL DEGS F ABV NRML THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR / IFR CIGS XPCTD TO CONT THRU 12Z AS LGHT E-NE FLOW TRAPS THE
LL MSTR. CIGS SHUD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK INTO MVFR THEN VFR BY
18Z...THEN LWR ONVE AGAIN TO MVFR BY 00Z TUE. INTRO SOME -RA AT KECG
BY END OF FCST PRD.
AREAS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT MVFR OR IFR ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVER SRN VA/NC MON NIGHT AND TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
BY MIDWEEK. SCT RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR MAY REACH RIC AND SBY TUE
AND WED. WEATHER WILL IMPROVE THU AND FRI AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS MAINLY ORF AND ECG FROM THE
NE TUE NIGHT BECOMING NW THU BEFORE DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
COMBO OF TROF ALONG SE COAST & HIGH PRS E OF NEW ENGLAND KEEPS
ERLY FLOW ACROSS MARINE AREA THRU TUE. SEAS CRNTLY BTWN 3-5 FT
ALONG MID ATLNTC COAST ATTM (3 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE TO 5 FT OUT NR
15-20 NM). WAVE WATCH PROGS SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 5
FT...BRIEFLY DECREASING BY LATER THIS AFTN. DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA
HEADLINE THRU WED MORN...BASED ON WAVE WATCH AND CURRENT TRENDS.
HV ALSO ADDED CURRITUCK SND AND SRN CHES BAY FOR AFTER MIDNGHT
TONIGHT, WHEN WINDS INCREASE WITH DEVLOPING/DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS.
ATTN THEN TURNS TO DVLPNG LOW OFF SE COAST TUE. THIS SYSTM PROGGED
TO MOVE N ALONG ERN C-BOARD TUE NITE THRU THU. SINCE MODELS CONT TO
DISAGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
CRNT FCST. JIST WILL BE FOR WNDS TO INCRS INTO SCA RANGE TUE NITE
AND WED WITH PTNTL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WNDS WED DEPENDING ON THE
ACTUAL TRACK OF SYSTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ632-633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST MON NOV 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 440 AM/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ENDING THE DREARY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BEGINNING A SPELL OF WARM
AND PLEASANT WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WORK INTO THE NORTH WOODS BY LATE THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT COULD INCLUDE FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. SMD
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1051 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT WEAVING ITS WAVE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. LOW CLOUDS/FOG PRETTY WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MI...THOUGH AS "THICKER" MOISTURE MOVES
EAST PER IR IMAGERY SOME CLEARING SHOWING UP ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER
AND MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
BEAR THIS OUT: APX SOUNDING SATURATED TO 850MB...GRB SOUNDING MOIST
LAYER BARELY REACHES 950MB.
PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON DEALS WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
PROCESS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY AND LOWER NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE TAKING A LONG TIME TO TRY
AND MIX THIS STUFF OUT. CURRENTLY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOWING
UP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST LOWER...WITH ST/FOG STILL HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CREEPING WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SKIES ARE CLEAR SOUTH OF
US-10...SO MIXING OF THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER WILL
LIKELY COME FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH AND "SHRINK" WESTWARD. SUSPECT
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...EXPECT CURRENT
LAYERED CLOUDINESS TO THIN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK INTO
CURRENTLY CLEAR AREAS OVER FAR WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. CLEARING
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MAY BE COMPLICATED A BIT BY DIURNAL CU/SC FOR
A WHILE AS WELL. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE AFTERNOON`S
THAT REQUIRE FREQUENT UPDATES...BUT OVERALL THE GENERAL FORECAST
TREND WILL BE ONE OF DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
JPB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 440 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
TONIGHT...WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE TREND EXPECTED FOR THE
DAY...THE EVENING SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY CLEAR. THE LOW CLOUDS IN
EASTERN UPPER OUGHT TO BE EAST OF THE REGION...AND ONE OF THE
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG
CAN DEVELOP. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LAID OUT ACROSS THE
STRAITS REGION IN THE EVENING...AND THE EASTERLY FLOW COMING IN
OFF LAKE HURON WAS THOUGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR DREARY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WAS POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERING THE EXTENT OF THE DRYING SEEN YESTERDAY UPSTREAM OF
US...AND LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I DO NOT SEE THAT
HAPPENING. MAYBE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN UPPER FOR A TIME
LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...ENDING ANY THREAT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING/PROTECTED
AREAS LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHER SFC TD`S AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES.
FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
WILL BE BLOWING AT A GOOD 25-30KT CLIP.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WILL BE SLOW TO GET INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 HEIGHT
FIELDS. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE
REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THAT MAY EVEN BE TOO
FAST. THEREFORE...WARM WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS.
LATER PERIODS...OUTSIDE OF SLOWING THE RAIN ARRIVAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDS ON
TIMING OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE EVENTUAL STORM SYSTEM. SMD
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 440 AM/
ENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WHITEFISH BAY. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
TEMPORARILY IN ALL AREAS. NO CONCERNS FOR WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TODAY.
SW WINDS DO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT JUST OFF THE SFC...BUT THINK
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED AT A SE WIND HOLDING ON AT WHITEFISH BAY...WHICH COULD
THREATEN A 25 KNOT GUST. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK FURTHER AT THAT
POSSIBILITY. COULD BE WIND GUSTS/WAVE ISSUES TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
THESE WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER. TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY ATTM.
SMD
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 619 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK THROUGH PLN BTWN 15-16Z...WHILE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER TVC OUGHT TO ERODE BY THEN. APN LIKELY TO SEE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL BY AFTERNOON...AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW CLOUDS OUT TONIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL VERY LATE 09-12Z...MAYBE 4-6SM BR.
SMD
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1230 AM EST MON NOV 3 2008
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/400MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MAINLAND OF ALASKA DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM BAFFIN ISLAND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SECOND TROUGH HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN TO KINL AS SEEN ON LATEST(19Z) MSAS
MSLP ANALYSIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS YIELD MODEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS
OF 33 KNOTS OBSERVED AT STDM4. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE U.P. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED AT CMX
AND AT THE OFFICE. TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS DOWN IN GRIDS TO JUST A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS. DRY AIR IN PLACE...PER 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING AT
KSAW...APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
TO OCCUR. 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM CMX SHOWS COLUMN HAS MOISTENED
THROUGH 600MB...SO DRY AIR HAS BEEN OVERCOME...BUT IT APPEARS TOO
LATE FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS BEST MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS REMAINING POPS FOR CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA AND FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS POPS
GO...HAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS LIGHT RAIN IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT/LOW CPD AS SEEN ON THE 300K-305K SURFACES. AS THE SFC TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY DEPARTS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC...ISENTROPIC
DESCENT/ADVECTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT YIELDS A QUICK END TO THE LIGHT
RAIN. OPTED TO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN CWA AS WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CPD REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH 06Z.
AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...ALL GUIDANCE TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
MID TOMORROW MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER
850-700MB DEWPOINT DEP. GT 15C...WILL HELP TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN
FOG LAYER. TRENDED HIGHS UPWARD FOR TOMORROW. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 12-13C OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...WOULDN/T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WEST...SOME 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)...
TROF JUST OFF THE W COAST WILL SHIFT E TUE/WED...REACHING THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES LATE WED...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE ERN
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HERE. IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE TUE OR WED...TEMPS COULD TOUCH 70F OVER
PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI AS INDICATED BY NAM SFC TEMP
FIELDS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM AIR OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH
70S INTO THE DAKOTAS/SRN MN...SO WARM AIR IS NOT FAR AWAY. FOR
NOW...TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH BTWN THE ETA/GFS MOS TEMPS AS
CLOUD COVER IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY. IN ANY CASE...TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV. WITH MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 0.75-1 INCH RANGE...150-250PCT OF NORMAL) AND SW WINDS
STAYING UP...NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. MIN TEMPS TUE
MORNING AND WED MORNING GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S WILL BE
ABOVE THE NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS FOR PCPN...THERE IS NOTHING SOLID TO LOCK ONTO FOR MEANINGFUL
PCPN CHANCES. SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADING NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY LATE
MON NIGHT...AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH UPPER MI BY TUE MORNING. ONGOING MODEST WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR -SHRA/SPRINKLES...BUT
SINCE THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE FORCING AND MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE NO PCPN...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER MON NIGHT. DRY DAY
EXPECTED TUE. THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH STATIONARY/WARM FRONT SET UP N AND W OF FCST
AREA...MAIN PCPN SHOULD ALSO OCCUR N AND W OF HERE. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF CHC POPS OVER THE W TUE NIGHT INTO WED CLOSER
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THU-SUN...TROF OVER THE WRN PLAINS TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THEY HAVE SHOWN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE CANADIAN/UKMET/ECWMF/GFS STILL SHOW A MIDLEVEL LOW
CLOSING OFF WITHIN THE TROF OVER THE PLAINS WED INTO THU.
THEREAFTER...TIMING AND TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW IS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR A NUMBER OF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. IF ANYTHING...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SOUTHWARD
TREND IN TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW IN RECENT RUNS. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES...BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO AVOID LOCKING INTO ANY
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN AND TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM IS HIGHER. OVERALL...WITH
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LEAN FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE...BEST REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF. THIS
RESULTS IN A SLOWER INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...AND ALSO DELAYS ARRIVAL
OF AIR COLD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MENTION OF -RA/-SN MIX OR -SN.
EVEN THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN A LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
REGIME AT SOME POINT AS SYSTEM MOVES E OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN THU/FRI
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS GULF MOISTURE WILL BE WELL INVOLVED. EXACT
TIMING OF THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT PLAN TO
MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
CONDITIONS AT CMX WILL LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS
INCREASING MID-LVL RIDGING AND ASSOC SUBSIDENCE TRAPS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT WINDS. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT KSAW. THE FOG/STRATUS THAT DOES FORM
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE MORNING AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING. A
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SETUP FOR LLWS
BY MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LAKE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A HIGH
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THESE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE OCEAN AND THE WEAK LOW
DEPARTS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. BRISK S TO SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE RULE WED/THU
AS LOW PRES SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. WITH S TO SE
WINDS...ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME GALE GUSTS...IT APPEARS STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE LAKE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALES. IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...20-30KT N WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI/SAT ACROSS THE
LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...PEARSON/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG PRODUCT AND IR ALIKE SHOW MARINE LAYER BECOMING MORE AND MORE
ESTABLISHED EARLY THIS AM ACRS MOST OF NE PA AND A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL NY. TAMDARS SOUNDINGS SHOWS LL INVERSION CLSE TO 900 MB
W/ FLIGHTS IN ERN PA. A FLIGHT LINE IN WRN NY SHOWS THIS INV A
LITTLE HIGHER UP ARND 800 MB BUT UNSATURATED WITH A SAT DEF OF
ARND 2C. THE LL WINDS WERE SERLY UNDER THIS INV IN ERN PA AND
SWRLY IN WRN NY UNDER THE INV. THUS THIS SERLY LL FLO WAS KEEPING
COOLER AIR UNDERNEATH THE SWRLY FLO WHICH WAS LEADING TO WAA AND
MOIST ADVTN. AREAS THAT SEE MORE A LL SERLY FLO UP THRU THE FIRST
100 MB LATER THIS AM LIKELY WILL ALLOW FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO
SPREAD AND PERSIST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HAVE THE LL INV WITH
SATURATION VERY CLOSE TO THE GRND MORE INDICATIVE OF FOG WHICH IS
ALSO FORMING. MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT REVEALING BOTH A ST LAYER
AND A FOG LAYER (EXCEPT AT AVP)SO WILL FOLLOW CURRENT SAT TRENDS AND HV
MO CLDY ACRS SERN 1/2 OF CWA THIS MORNING W/ PS TO THE NW. EVEN
SO...THE LL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SRLY BY AFTRN AND WITH SOME BNDRY
LAYER MIXING BELIEVE MARINE LAYER WILL BREAK UP IN NC NY AND EC
NY. IT WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN NE PA SINCE THE LL WINDS DO NOT
INCREASE OR BACK AS MUCH. ADDTNLY...CLDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF DVLPG COASTAL SYSTEM. IR SATL REVEALS THAT
THESE CLDS WILL ALSO AFFECT SERN 1/2 OF CWA PRIMARILY. THUS MORE
CLDS TO THE SE AND LESS TO THE NW TODAY...MC SE...TO PS NW IN CWA.
FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY FOLLOWING A BLEND OF GUIDC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL WAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVR THE NERN OH VLLY AND ERN LAKES
WILL SLOWLY WORK E TODAY AND BEGIN INTERCEPTG SOME OF THE MOISTURE
ASSCTD WITH THE UPR LVL SYS DVLPG OVR THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED CLDS WITH A SLGHT CHC TO CHC FOR SHRA ACRS NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS TONIGHT AND WED AM. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY
WED PM THE GFS AND THE 03Z SREF TENDS TO DIVERGE FROM THE
NAM/EURO AND CANADIAN IDEA IN THE HANDLING OF THE EAST COAST UPR
LVL SYS. THE GFS/SREF ARE QUICKER TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE BGM CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI. THE
NAM...EURO AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER AND KEEP PRECIP CHC/S OVR MUCH
OF BGM CWA THU AND ESP THU NGT.
GFS DVLPS A NARROW UPR LVL RDG ACRS THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z FRI
AND APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER CRLCN PATTERN WITH THE UPR LVL SYS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. SREF ALSO IS SIMILAR IN
THIS REGARD HAVG A BIGGER PLAINS SYSTEM. THIS IN EFFECT WEAKENS
AND PUSHES THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO THE E FASTER. AS PER NCEP PMDHMD
DSCN...THE GFS AND NAM HAD A LITTLE TROUBLE INITIALIZATING THIS
STORM. AS SUCH THE DETERMINSTIC NAM STILL TENDS TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE EURO WHICH HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
THUS IS PREFERRED. CANADIAN IS ALSO SLOWER AND SUPPORTS A SLOWER
EVOLTION OF THE COASTAL SYS. THUS FOR GRIDS...LEANED TWD NAM
GUIDC WITH COLLABRATION AND CONSISTENCY FROM PRVS FORECAST. I
AGREE WITH HPC/S LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST GIVEN THE NATURE OF
UPR LVL LO/S AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
DUE TO A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM. STRONGER CYCLONE ADVANCING ACROSS
PLAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH BRIEF MVFR AT AVP AND PSBLY BGM DUE TO
LINGERING LOW CLDS. LOW CLDS ARE XPCTD TO MOV BACK INTO THE RGN
TNGT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z OR SO AT AVP/BGM/ITH
AND ELM (BRIEF LIFR COULD OCCUR AT BGM/ITH DUE TO CIGS). FURTHER TO
THE N AT RME AND SYR WE XPCT MVFR RESTRISTIONS WELL AFTER MDNGT
DUE TO BR. LOW CLDS SHUD DSPT BY LATE WED MRNG. WINDS LGT GNRLY 5
KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK (WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED...ALTHO IFR VLY FOG PSBL
TWIN TIERS THU MRNG.
THU NGT INTO FRIDAY...POTNL FOR MVFR OR IFR DUE TO MARINE LAYER
AND LOW CLDS AT BGM/AVP. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI NGT INTO SAT...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SHRA WITH COLD FRONT
PSSG.
SAT NGT INTO SUN...MVFR ACRS UPSTATE NY DUE TO SCT -SHRA...MAINLY
VFR ACRS NE PA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
131 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2008
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR
EXCEEDED THEIR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE ARE MIXING UP INTO THE 925 MB
TO 900 MB RANGE. THERE APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX CLOSE
TO 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAD LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...DEFAULT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM IA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
04.00Z GFS/NAM AND 04.03Z SREF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH...HEIGHTS COLLAPSE A BIT TODAY. DEEPER
MIXING INDICATED THOUGH TODAY BY ABOUT 25MB FROM THAT OF YESTERDAY
TO ABOUT 875MB. WITH HELP FROM WARM START THIS MORNING AND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DUE TO INTERIM SURFACE RIDGE...HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THESE READINGS WILL
EITHER BREAK OR COME CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS TODAY. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR TONIGHT...LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS
IT MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
CYCLOGENESIS IN TURN CRANKS UP LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NOSE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT POINTING NORTHWARD INTO MN. MAIN RESULT FROM THIS FORCING
WILL BE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO THE DAKOTAS. MAINTAINED A
VERY SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA ACROSS NORTH/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT WILL BE ON EASTERN FRINGES OF THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SD ON WEDNESDAY WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTING INTO NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE 600-900J/KG RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...WENT WITH MORE THUNDER
AND KEPT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...THEN BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN. AS IT DOES...IT
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN IA. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL FUEL STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LINE OF SHRA/TS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LINE OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO T AREA UNDER THE LOW. BASED ON THIS...BACKED OFF TO
CHANCY POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...BUT
COULD START MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA AS COLDER CORE OF AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO T AREA UNDER THE LOW. BASED ON THIS...BACKED OFF TO
CHANCY POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...BUT
COULD START MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA AS COLDER CORE OF AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.
MODELS HAVE THE STACKED LOW ANCHORING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING ALL SNOW WITH DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH A SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. WENT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING AS A RESULT. COULD SEE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
INDICATING MORE CONTINUOUS DEFORMATION FORCED SNOW WRAPPING INTO THE
AREA. WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ONTO THE DAYSHIFT FOR FURTHER
ASSESSMENT. SNOW SHOULD TAPPER OFF TO FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
AS THE STACKED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A DRY PERIOD AS AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY SLY WINDS AHEAD OF
DEEP PLAINS SURFACE LOW SET TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT.
WILL AGAIN SEE AFTN GUSTS TOWARD 20-25KT AT BOTH SITES TODAY. WILL
SEE BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
TAF SITES TODAY...AT THEIR LOWEST BEING ABOUT 7KFT. MAY STILL SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT MIST /5-6SM BR/ DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE IN THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...BUT LOWERED CONFIDENCE HERE. AFTER
05.06Z...WILL SEE CEILINGS THICKEN WEST OF KRST...MOVING INTO KRST
BY 05.12Z...AND SPREADING INTO LA CROSSE SOON AFTER. COMING TAF
ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS LONGER DURATION PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY OF FREQUENT PRECIPITATION...MVFR OR BELOW CIGS...AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN/SCT THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE...
RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS...MANY WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY
ALSO BE EQUALED OR BROKEN. AS A REMINDER...THE WARMEST DAILY MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FOR THE DAY AND NOT NECESSARILY THE MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURE. EVEN THOUGH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY WILL FALL WELL SHORT
OF THE STATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER.
THE TABLE BELOW PROVIDES THE STATE NOVEMBER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR IOWA...MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...
IOWA 86 NOV 17 1899 BURLINGTON
MINNESOTA 84 NOV 1 1950 WINONA
WISCONSIN 84 NOV 4 1904 PRAIRIE DU CHIEN
84 NOV 1 1904 PRAIRIE DU CHIEN
THE TABLE BELOW CONTAINS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TODAY WEDNESDAY
NOV 4TH NOV 5TH
------- ---------
AUSTIN MN 71 IN 1975 68 IN 2001
CHARLES CITY IA 68 IN 1978+ 71 IN 1945
DECORAH IA 70 IN 1895 73 IN 1895
LA CROSSE WI 68 IN 1895 71 IN 1924
MEDFORD WI 71 IN 1978 70 IN 1938+
OELWEIN IA 71 IN 1978 72 IN 1945+
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI 74 IN 1978 73 IN 1895
PRESTON MN 73 IN 1975 69 IN 1975
ROCHESTER MN 72 IN 1975 70 IN 1893
SPARTA WI 71 IN 1978 66 IN 1975
WINONA MN 76 IN 1964 74 IN 1975
+ INDICATES THE LAST OCCURRENCE
THE TABLE BELOW CONTAINS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TODAY WEDNESDAY
NOV 4TH NOV 5TH
------- ---------
AUSTIN MN 48 IN 1940 49 IN 1948
CHARLES CITY IA 54 IN 1981 54 IN 1895
DECORAH IA 54 IN 1895 53 IN 1895
LA CROSSE WI 56 IN 1895 54 IN 1895
MEDFORD WI 51 IN 1956 51 IN 1956
OELWEIN IA 52 IN 1981 46 IN 1978
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI 57 IN 1902 55 IN 1956
PRESTON MN 49 IN 1964 52 IN 1956
ROCHESTER MN 47 IN 1981+ 46 IN 1948
SPARTA WI 54 IN 1938 55 IN 1956
WINONA MN 55 IN 1964 53 IN 1956
+ INDICATES THE LAST OCCURRENCE
BOYNE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG AND SHORT TERM...DAS
CLIMATE...BOYNE/DAS
AVIATION...BINAU
UPDATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS HONOLULU HI
1240 PM HST TUE NOV 4 2008
CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
.UPDATE...
AS OF 1240 PM...HAVE REMOVED HEAVY SHOWER WORDING FROM BIG ISLAND
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
REMAINS STRONG. LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS NEAR OAHU INDICATE A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...DESPITE THE SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH
JUST TO THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS IN THE LINGERING EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND SEA
BREEZES WILL DRIVE THE FORMATION OF LEEWARD CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE INVERSION WILL LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY STATE WIDE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A SERIES
OF LOWS AND FRONTS PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. WITH THE LIGHTER
WINDS...CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOONS OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS BY FRIDAY...WITH PASSING
WINDWARD SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 922 AM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT TO THE
WEST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE ISLANDS WITHIN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF
KAUAI...THEREBY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER COASTAL
WATERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS NEAR KAUAI. LIGHT LAND BREEZES BEST
DESCRIBE THE WIND CONDITIONS OVER MOST ISLAND AREAS THIS MORNING...
WITH LIGHT TRADES OVER WINDWARD COASTAL STATIONS. RADAR SHOWS
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM OAHU. ANOTHER
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND/S KAU
DISTRICT. /THE MOLOKAI RADAR WILL BE DOWN MOST OF THE DAY FOR
SOFTWARE INSTALLATION./ THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS IS BEING
LIMITED BY A ROBUST TEMPERATURE INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN 6 AND 7
THOUSAND FEET.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
WEAKEN...AS A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS DIG TOWARD...BUT REMAIN
NORTH OF...THE ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERNMOST LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ABOUT
150 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. NONETHELESS WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES. LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...STRENGTHENING
THE RIDGE AND INCREASING THE TRADES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST
TO PASS OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE
OF ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THUS THE HEAVY SHOWERS IN
THE BIG ISLAND FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A STRONG INVERSION TO ERODE TO ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY...CLEARING
OUT MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST HOWEVER...
KEEPING TRADE SHOWERS CAPPED AND LIMITED IN INTENSITY.
WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS...THERE IS THE ONGOING CONCERN AS TO THE
EMISSIONS FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND THEIR TRAJECTORY. WITH THE RIDGE
STAYING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND...KEEPING THE EMISSIONS AWAY FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS...
AND LIKELY PREVENTING EMISSIONS FROM AFFECTING AREAS NOT NORMALLY
AFFECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING EARLY THURSDAY WILL PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SURF NEARING THE 15 FOOT ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LOWER OVER THE
OTHER ISLANDS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE STATE LATER IN THE
WEEK...WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE WINDIER AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BIRCHARD
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