35. Development of a Process-Based Numerical Modeling System for Predicting Coastal Hazards

Coastal erosion is a pervasive societal problem for much of the world's shoreline. The ability to understand and predict coastal change is thus critical to mitigating coastal change hazards. In the coastal zone, storms are one of the primary driving forces resulting in coastal change. These discrete events create large waves, storm surges, flooding, coastal erosion, and strong currents that pose threats to life, property, and navigation. Understanding the processes that generate these effects will increase our capability to predict these processes and their impacts. This knowledge will increase our ability to effectively manage our coastal resources to individual storm events as well as to long-term coastal change due to the cumulative effect of multiple storms over periods of years to decades. This will allow planners and coastal managers to provide increased awareness and advanced preparation to minimize loss of life and property and to better manage coastal resources.

Previous numerical efforts to investigate the processes contributing to coastal change have been based on empirical approaches or models with limited capabilities and oversimplified physical processes. These approaches were undertaken for efficiency and lack of computational capabilities. Recently, computational resources have increased substantially due to multi-core processors and node-type clusters. This allows numerical models to incorporate full three-dimensional physics and allow coupling of different earth system type models, for example, full coupling of atmosphere-wave-ocean-sediment models to create a complete modeling system. These modeling systems can now be used to investigate coastal response over large spatial scales at fine resolution and for long-term coastal change simulations.

The objective of research under this Opportunity is to improve the capability for predicting storm-induced and long-term coastal change through the development and application of a comprehensive physics-based modeling system. The model development can involve the incorporation of a new physical process into an existing modeling system and/or the application of a modeling system to a specific geographic location to investigate the processes responsible for coastal changes at that particular location. Understanding of the specific processes at one location can lead to broader understanding in other geographic locations.

The model component developed should be created such that it could be incorporated into an existing open-source modeling structure that contains tested circulation and wave modules. For example, the research community has developed a coupled modeling system that combines the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the surface wave model Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN), and the ocean circulation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) that also includes the USGS-led sediment transport modeling components (Warner and others, 2008).

The modeling system can be applied to support one of several current USGS projects focusing on coastal change in Southern and Northern California (http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/), and North (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/northcarolina/) and South Carolina (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/scarolina/). The integrated coastal hazards model should also be transferable so it can support research efforts in a range of coastal energy settings.

References

Warner, J.C., Sherwood, C.R., Signell, R.P., Harris, C.K., and Arango, H.G., 2008, Development of a three-dimensional, regional, coupled wave, current, and sediment-transport model: Computers and Geosciences, v. 34, p. 1284–1306.

Warner, J.C., Perlin, N., and Skyllingstad, E., 2008, Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models: Environmental Modeling and Software, v. 23, p. 1240–1249.

Proposed Duty Station: Santa Cruz, CA; Woods Hole, MA

Areas of Ph.D.: Geology, oceanography, computer science, civil engineering, coastal engineering

Qualifications: Applicants must meet one of the following qualifications: Research Geologist, Research Oceanographer, Computer Engineer, Civil Engineer

(This type of research is performed by those who have backgrounds for the occupations stated above. However, other titles may be applicable depending on the applicant's background, education, and research proposal. The final classification of the position will be made by the Human Resources specialist.)

Research Advisor(s): Patrick Barnard, (831) 427-4756, pbarnard@usgs.gov; John Warner, (508) 457-2237, jcwarner@usgs.gov; Jeff List, (508) 457-2343, jlist@usgs.gov

Human Resources Office contact: Candace Azevedo, (916) 278-9393, caazevedo@usgs.gov

Summary of Opportunities