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In Memory of Jose J. Fernandez-Partagas, who dedicated his life to the study and history of Tropical Cyclones.

The FINAL text in now in place (hopefully)! When reading, or using, this document it must be remembered that it has not been subject to peer review. The text has been submitted to NWS Southern Region Headquarters for publication as a Technical Memorandum and to the National Hurricane Center for possible inclusion in the hurricane history data base. Sorry about the delay in getting this up and running but for all intents and purposes it is done. All that's left to do is to add some chrome!

Abstract: On 2 October 1898, a significant hurricane impacted the Georgia coast near Cumberland Island. Wind, pressure, damage and storm surge data indicate that this was most likely a major, category three or greater storm at the time of landfall. This event generated the highest storm surge of record for large portions of the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia coasts and resulted in an estimated 179 fatalities. Through an analysis of historical documents, it is clear that the archived track information for this event is displaced approximately thirty (30) nautical miles to the north of the storm's actual track and its assigned intensity is currently underestimated. These findings are a portion of an ongoing local study of historical accounts and documents, in addition to other resources, in an effort to both qualitatively and quantitatively enhance the historical record of local hurricane events, as well as the current archived track data for the Jacksonville and St. Simons Island areas.

A brief history of the archived track data and the need for local reevaluation. The first attempt to compile a comprehensive collection of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks was produced by Cry in 1965. This work relied heavily on collecting and incorporating several previous studies and documents, most notably the U. S. Weather Bureau's Technical Paper No. 36, various issues of the The Monthly Weather Review, Cline (1926), Fassig (1913), Garriott (1900), Mitchell (1932) and Tannehill (1956). Using period sources and covering a vast area (the entire North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) this work resulted in a useful overview of specific tropical cyclone tracks.

Neuman et. al. (1993, 1987, 1985, 1981, 1978) have updated and adjusted this original work over the subsequent decades and incorporated it into the computerized archived track database, also referred to as the "Best Track" database, maintained by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) . The track and intensity for each individual tropical cyclone (back to 1886) became incorporated into the archived track data set using the previous work, and continues to be updated as additional information becomes available (Jarvinen et. al. 1984).

An obvious consequence of this process is that the more diverse and accurate the base information used to generate a storm track, the greater the level of confidence that can be ascribed to that particular track. As one would expect, the tracks of modern day storms are quite accurate, while the converse situation applies equally well to storm tracks which predate reconnaissance aircraft. Jarvinen et. al. (1984) highlighted the technical advances in systems for observing tropical cyclones (figure 1). This figure demonstrates the limitations of previous observational techniques versus modern day capabilities. Worthy of note is the brief period of time which has seen the widespread deployment of remote sensing systems, which may accurately place the center of a landfalling storm in data sparse or lightly populated coastal regions.

An additional consequence of this process is that the North Atlantic Basin database tends to be conservative in its assignment of intensity rankings. The fourteen year period between 1886 and 1899 includes two (2) category one, sixty (60) category two and thirteen (13) category three storms, while no category four or five storms are recorded for the entire basin (see table 1).

An analysis of the expected number of tropical cyclones using a fifty-two (52) year period of aircraft reconnaissance (1944 through 1995) for comparison, indicates that during a similar fourteen year period the expected number of storms should be thirty-two (32) category one, fifteen (15) category two, seventeen (17) category three, thirteen (13) category four and five (5) category five storms (see table 2), note both tropical and sub-tropical cyclones are included in the modern database as it would be impossible to distinguish between them in the nineteenth century database).

The period of aircraft reconnaissance was chosen for comparison to demonstrate the effects of improved detection and intensity sampling (refer to figure 1) while also incorporating as extended a sampling period as possible. While it can be argued that fifty-two years is still too short a duration to account for long term variability and cycles, post-World War Two communications make it unlikely that a significant number of tropical cyclones escaped detection and measurement during this period.

It should be noted that the number of category two storms during the late nineteenth century represents 404 percent of the number expected for a similar period, based on the latter half of the twentieth century, while category one storms represent only 6 percent of that expected. It is only in the category three storm range where we find a reasonable correlation between the periods with 77 percent of the expected number of storms recorded in the earlier period. Yet, even with category three storms there is a problem in that NO category three storm in the nineteenth century is assigned wind speeds that exceed 105 kt/121 mph in maximum intensity (see table 3).

Partagas and Diaz (1996) undertook a further refinement and enhancement of the Atlantic Basin archived track data during the later half of the nineteenth century and early twentieth century (1851-1908). Their work, based largely on national sources (such as NOAA Technical Memoranda, the New York Times, etc...), identified many tropical cyclones that had not been previously documented, extended storm tracks back to 1851, adjusted the tracks of existing storms, and either confirmed the existing storm intensity levels or suggested new intensity assignments. The new storm data thus generated, while not yet incorporated into the archived track database, is currently available from the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami and the Environmental Research Laboratory's Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder.

The current archived track data base contains storm positions, sustained wind speeds and surface pressures (when available) for the period beginning in 1886. While this data base is no longer utilized in an operational forecast setting, it is used as a comparison to the objective forecasts through the CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model.

More importantly, the database is utilized in a number of statistical studies still used today. Simpson and Lawrence (1971) analyzed hurricane frequencies along the U. S. coastline between 1886 and 1970 by breaking the coastline into fifty-eight (58), fifty mile long segments. The track information was based on the original work of Cry and subsequent work by Hope and Neuman (1969,1970) and Sugg et. al. (1971). Jarrell et al. (1992) further quantified this work during the period between 1900 and 1990 and refined the spacing into a county by county basis. Elsner and Kara (1997, 1998) used the data base generated by Jarrell et al. to calculate the hurricane return periods along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

In relation to these studies and techniques, it must be remembered that a landfalling tropical cyclone represents an extremely rare and irregular event along any given stretch of coastline and the displacement of even a single event, or the misidentification of the intensity of a storm, may have a dramatic effect on the local statistical data set. Consequently, computed statistical results may reflect trends which, in fact, are not historically valid, due solely to the misidentification of one or more events. Additionally, using a data set, or subset, which is characterized by a lull in or abnormally frequent tropical cyclone activity may also result in unrepresentative, skewed results.

While the data are as accurate as possible on a broader scale, there is still a need for refinement on a local scale. There is a natural bias to cluster events around areas which have historically been longer and/or more heavily occupied. This trend has long been recognized, and indeed Dunn and Miller (1964) discussed this inclination in relation to the crossing points of landfalling tropical cyclones in the state of Florida (figure 2). They point out that "...the apparent low frequency on the Gulf coast between Cedar Key and St. Marks is not believed to be real. This area is very sparsely settled and the exact point where many of the storm centers reached the coast is not known, so there has been a natural tendency to place the track too close to the nearest observing point."⁽¹⁾

During much of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries the target area of this study was an equally sparsely populated area with the main population centers clustered in port cities (Fernandina, St. Marys, Darien) or displaced slightly inland along the "Kings Highway" (Jacksonville). Additionally, there seems to be a lull in hurricane activity along the Georgia and extreme northeast Florida coasts during the twentieth century which was not characteristic of the nineteenth century. An examination of the current archived hurricane landfalls (exiting and paralleling storms are not considered ) between the period of 1886 and 1944 along the Georgia and extreme northeast Florida coasts (figures: 3a, 3b) shows a similar clustering in the St Simons Island and Darien areas. It should also be noted that while only a very few direct hurricane landfalls have occurred along the Georgia coast during the twentieth century, numerous significant landfalls occurred during the nineteenth century (1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1881, 1893 and 1898(2) ).

Through careful study of historical records, it may be possible to more accurately extend the historical tropical cyclone database of landfall points and intensities, backward into the early eighteenth century, thus smoothing out abnormal periods (lulls or increased activity), improving the statistical data set and the results computed from it.

Methodology: An exhaustive effort has been made to collect data though the study of period books and subsequent local histories by area residents and authors. The Georgia and northeast Florida coastline has a rich history in relation to development by several millionaires, clubs and plantations and while sparsely populated, the caretakers of these estates have left a very comprehensive record of the events in the form of diaries, logs, collections of personal letters and correspondences with their employers. Additionally, microfilm from several local newspapers have been utilized for their period reports. Local historical societies and the staff of various local landmarks have proven to be forthcoming in their efforts, but perhaps the richest resource for new information has proven to be the diaries and collections of letters held by local families. A letter to the editor, addressed to several local newspapers, produced highly beneficial results as several area families provided copies of such documents for this study.

Whenever possible, the data has been verified by corroborating documentation, and when possible (or practical) the data has been checked against the original documents or sources in local and state archives. Obviously when dealing with a century old event this has not always been possible. One key description, by Mr. John Hernandez (deceased), is based on a oral account given during the mid 1980s to Mrs. Eloise Bailey Thompson a local historian in Camden County, Georgia.

It must be understood that the data is perishable and over the intervening years, numerous documents have been lost due to environmental or other causes. A most poignant example, related by the manuscripts curator at the Georgia Dept. of Archives and History, was where Hurricane Hugo (1989) destroyed a collection of 19th century Georgia letters and records (privately held in South Carolina) before it could be microfilmed by that office.

A summary of the archived track data and intensity estimates for the 2 October 1898 hurricane: The original track was presented in the October, 1898 edition of the Monthly Weather Review (figure 4a). Mitchell (1924, figure 4b) subsequently adjusted the storm track in the Monthly Weather Review, Supplement No 24 (figure five from that document, Tracks of Tropical Cyclones of North Atlantic, September 16-30). The storm track later appears unchanged in the work done by Cry (1965, figure 4c [ Note Figures 4c and 4d are large files and may require long download times ]) and has remained unadjusted in later works by Neuman et al. (1993, 1987, 1985, 1981, 1978, figure 4d).

Estimates of the intensity of this event seem to be varied and this likely reflects both the rural nature of the impacted area and the particular interests of past authors. The storm originally appears in the Monthly Weather Review (1898) as a severe event. Mitchell (1924) ascribes little significance to this storm other than to chart its course as noted above. Tannehill (1950) similarly does little to describe this storm other than to add it to the chronological list of hurricanes with few remarks. Dunn and Miller (1964) list this hurricane as "extreme" in coastal Georgia but only minimal for northeast Florida. It seems likely that the latter designation is largely based on the assumed track rather than actual damage reports. Sugg et. al. (1971) also lists this as an "extreme" event most likely based on the work by Dunn and Miller which immediately preceded their study. The storm subsequently appears in the archived track data as a category two event upon landfall. In contrast, Ho (1989) estimated a central pressure with this storm of 27.91 inches or 945 mb, which would bring this storm into the strong category three to near category four status.

This author became aware of the work by Fernandez-Partagas and Diaz (1996) late in this study. Their work, on this storm, was largely based on a re-analysis of reports from the New York Times and the Monthly Weather Review, as well as NOAA Technical Memoranda. It is gratifying that their study on a broader scale compares favorably with a work done independently on a local scale. As a result, both studies adjust both the intensity and the track of this storm in the same direction, as presented by Partagas and Diaz, and as developed, in respect to the landfall point, separately by the author.

Meteorologically pertinent data from the historical record: To avoid confusion, this discussion will work from north to south, and will first provide and then summarize, the pertinent meteorological information from each source. As a frame of reference the local geographic points of reference are presented (figure 5) and a copy of the current archived track data (figures 6a, 6b) have been included. The archived track for this event brings the hurricane on a west-northwest (300 degrees) course making landfall just north of the Altamaha River on Sapelo Island. Figure 7a highlights the main events and meteorological data along the Georgia coast and figure 7b does likewise for the Florida coastline. The measured or estimated tidal values for this event, based on the July 1987, Coastal Georgia Hurricane Evacuation Study, Appendix A, Storm Surge Maps, are presented in figure 8 for reference.

Pre-storm Environment: Some important aspects of the pre-storm environment must be covered to set the stage for the descriptions of the storm at landfall. Several factors likely combined to increase the height of the water column prior to landfall along the middle and upper Georgia coast. These factors may not all have contributed to the ultimate storm tide realized along the coast, but they are important as a frame of reference for the reader to truly understand the historical accounts.

First, the storm made landfall during a full moon period at the time of Spring Tides (the moon was full on September 29^th). The height of the astronomical tides expected at selected locations is given in tables 4a-d.

Second, northeast winds had been blowing along the coast for several days prior to the event and may have prevented the ebb tide from completely flushing the estuary system for several previous high tide cycles. At Saint Simons Island, Mr. Horace Gould of St. Simons Island wrote a letter several days after the storm (10 October 1898) and this letter was republished in the Atlanta Journal and CONSTITUTION, on Sunday, 13 September 1964. Mr. Gould describes the pre-storm environment early in the correspondence, "The wind had been blowing from the North East for two or three days, resulting in the usual high tides that it always brings."⁽²⁾ This synoptic situation sets up quite frequently along the Georgia coastline during the fall through early spring seasons, and is known locally as a "northeaster" and more generally as a "wedge". A large dome of high pressure sets up across the northern states and the return flow is wedged between the mountains and the warmer coastal waters increasing the coastal pressure gradient and consequently generating the strong northeast flow.

Mr. Gould's comments add credence to the supposition that the estuary system was already at or above high tide levels prior to landfall. The tidal rises associated with the northeasterly flow were likely shallow coastal flooding, and thus were unlikely to contribute significantly to the deep water storm tide.

Third, the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north and the approaching tropical cyclone would have progressively tightened through out the day and during the actual event may have been responsible a secondary wind maximum, located some distance to the north of the storm center.

Finally, the coastline in this region is characterized by an extensive estuary system, which would tend to channel the tidal flow from the northeasterly winds onto the back bay islands.

Individual accounts of the storm: St Catherines and Campbell Islands: No documented wind reports have been obtained from these islands, however the surge in these locations was devastating, accounting for the greatest loss of life. During the nineteenth century, the islands were largely populated with former slaves, as well as a superintendent and his family on St. Catherines Island. Of that island's population only one was saved and on Campbell Island some fifty residents were drowned. Other islands in this area were also swept with the loss of life most notably, Butlers, Wolf and Champney Islands and for the most part, these islands remain uninhabited to this day. A high tide of thirteen (13) feet above mean high water is given for Darien (see table 5) and eighteen (18) feet at the Sapelo Island Lighthouse (see table 6). The eighteen foot value at Sapelo lighthouse is somewhat questionable; however, period reports do mention that the roof of the Oil-house (see photos 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) was completely covered by the tide and this structure is in itself approximately 10 feet tall. These values correspond well to what would be expected for a major hurricane at this location.

Darien: Mr. Richard Grubb, a reporter for the Darien Gazette reports, "The wind started to blow hard late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, but it was not until about ten o'clock on Sunday morning that it became furious and continued to grow worse until about one o'clock in the afternoon. The storm continued throughout the day and at one time, it looked as if the whole town would have to succumb. The wind came from the northeast at first but gradually worked around to the east."⁽³⁾ At no time does this reporter describe any type of a rapid or sudden wind shift or calm associated with this storm, yet the current archived track data (refer to figures 6a, 6b) brings the track directly over this location.

Hofwyl-Broadfield Plantation: This site, located just south of the Altamaha River, experienced major flooding to the rice paddies, but relatively little damage to structures. This site is important as four large live oak trees felled by the storm still exist on the property. During the event, the extensive branch system of the trees supported the trunks aloft and thus prevented the root system from entirely ripping out of the ground. Subsequently these trees re-oriented their growth patterns with former branches becoming trunk like structures and continued their growth with their new orientation (see photos 8, 9, 10). These trees all lie toward the west-southwest, supporting the supposition that the strongest flow in this area was experienced from the east-northeast and the uni-directional nature of their orientation makes it unlikely that significant wind shifts were experienced at this location.

St. Simons Island: Returning to the correspondence of Mr. Horace Gould as referenced above. Mr. Gould graphically describes the view from his flooded house as the storm peaked. "...At this time the wind was blowing a hurricane, the yard as well as we could see looked like the ocean, great waves chasing each other across from East to West and striking the trees; the spray was thrown high into the air. We could only see to the West, on all other sides the air was filled with flying spray."⁽⁴⁾. Of note here are that visibility was only possible toward the west and the motion of the waves was in a westerly direction. At no time does Mr. Gould describe either a calm or a wind shift, but rather, "The water fell rapidly and before night it was possible to walk out, the wind having moderated to a gentle breeze."⁽⁵⁾ This description indicates a gradual relaxing of the pressure gradient in his location as would be expected some distance from the center.

The Gould family resided in the eastern portion of the island along the Blackbank River near Goulds Inlet. They were forced to retreat up onto the second floor of the family dwelling to escape the flood waters during the event and this substantiates a maximum surge value of 14 feet assigned to St. Simons Island. The maximum storm surge values for the Goulds Inlet area (see table 7) reach 15.8 feet for a category three storm if a flood tide of five feet above mean sea level has already been realized in the basin PRIOR to landfall. A category two storm under the same conditions will only generate a 12.4 foot storm surge. For a category two storm to generate a 14 foot storm surge in this location would require a pre-storm flood tide of six to seven feet above normal, and event which is not likely based on modern experience at this location. The description by this observer implies category three levels at this location.

Jekyll Island and Glynn County: Correspondence between Mr. J. A . Falk, assistant superintendent of the Gentlemen's Club at Jekyll island to Mr. Lanier, Club President on 3 Oct 1898. "We had the most severe storm ever known here yesterday, it was a tidal wave. It commenced to blow about midnight Saturday from the north east, the wind gradually increased until it blew a perfect gale. At about noon the wind changed to the south east and blew with the same velocity for the balance of the day."⁽⁶⁾

Mr. Falk's correspondence indicates that the wind never shifted to a westerly direction and that no calm was experienced at his location. The further overall effects of the storm on Jekyll Island can be obtained from excerpts from a letter between Mr. Grob, the Superintendent, and Col. John Mason Loomis, "...The dunes along the beach have almost all gone, about 75 feet of the north end was washed away, including the fishermans' houses both at north and south ends. The tide water covered almost the entire island, with the exception of the area between Mr. Fairbanks and Mr. Maurice... ...the houses (at the Club, added by the author for reference) were very little damaged."⁽⁷⁾ It should be noted that many large hardwood trees were felled and it required several months to remove them.

The almost total destruction of the oceanfront and lower ends of the island, and the relatively light damage at the Club, which sits in a well sheltered location in the center and western portion of the island, substantiates that the winds did not back as would be expected of a storm passing to the north of this location. The damage was more extensive in areas where direct wave action occurred and less destructive more sheltered locations. The Gentlemen's Club at Jekyll Island sits behind a center ridge line on Jekyll Creek (see table 8) and experienced only sound side flooding. It should be noted that structures which rose above the tree line suffered significant wind damage, most notably the Clubhouse cupola and the island's windmill. If the archived track data were valid, the westerly winds should have caused significant wave action in this area, an event which did not occur.

One aspect of the event in this vicinity was the extended duration of flooding due to the storm surge in interior locations. All sources on the barrier islands report the flooding subsided fairly rapidly, however this was not the case in the city of Brunswick. Photographic evidence shows flood waters approximately five to six feet deep on Newcastle Street without indications of significant wave action. While the structures in the city most likely provided some shelter from the wind, it is unlikely that they could shield this location from hurricane force winds. The adjoining marsh area is quite extensive and it appears that the surge was dammed in by the barrier islands after the wind stress was relieved. The retreating surge water would then have been forced to exit through both St. Andrews and St. Simons Sounds. This process may have taken a considerable period of time to complete, as well as generating extreme currents in the sounds. It would appear that this was an agent responsible for the destruction in the north end of the island ("...about 75 feet of the north end was washed away...") as the retreating waters eroded the sand due to the extreme flow velocities in the narrow channel.

St Marys and Camden County: It is the central thesis of this paper that the eye of the storm passed over the sparsely populated central portion of Camden County between St. Marys and Woodbine. Mrs. Jennie Hopper Miller reported from St. Marys, "This morning the wind was from the northeast and it has come around until it is now from the southwest and is blowing as hard, if not worse than it was."⁽⁸⁾ This wind shift would indicate that she was located fairly close to the center however she does not report a calm associated with this event.

Mr. John Hernandez of St. Marys also reported a significant wind shift with a calm, "The wind had blown all day when the sycamore trees began breaking. We ran from our home over my Father's store to a little house in the back. By then the tide had already covered the streets. The wind was calm (italics added by author) for a while, but then began to blow from the southwest."⁽⁹⁾

Note that both observers indicate a wind shift to the southwest and that Mrs. Miller is more specific in that the wind backed from the northeast to the southwest. This is as can be expected for an observer near the center of a hurricane. The eye likely passed over and just to the north of St. Mary's, Georgia. No report of a calm can be found for the Woodbine area, however there are several reports of an extreme storm surge moving up the Satilla River into Woodbine and it is likely that it was driven up the river by winds in the northern eye wall.

Further evidence that the center passed just north of Mr. Hernandez's position is his allusion to a brief calm, "the wind was calm for a while". Given the extended duration of storm conditions reported at this position, and elsewhere, there is no evidence to support the possibility of an accelerating system and the wind shifts reported by both observers would lead one to believe their positions were located in/near the southern portion of the eye/eye wall.

Of note in Mr. Hernandez's description is his observation that hardwood sycamore trees began "breaking", as opposed to losing branches and leaves. Mrs Hopper also reports that, "Pappa's peach trees are lying flat". from Camden's Challenge, the history of Camden County, "...it took William Futrill more than two days (italics added by author) to go from Woodbine to Shellbine because of the debris scattered through the woods and along the roads."⁽¹⁰⁾ Shellbine is a landing near present day Harriett's Bluff and this journey represents a ground distance of approximately ten miles. Also in northern Camden County the Bickley Chapel was so damaged that it was "disposed of" and "Church reports also show that services were discontinued for a time because of blocked roads and washed out bridges and 'footlogs'."⁽¹¹⁾ Mrs. Hopper's diary reports the town of St Marys as being devastated and accounts for several destroyed structures including the post office.

Cumberland Island: Cumberland Island is the longest barrier island along the Georgia coast, being approximately seventeen and a half miles in length. The island is characterized by a central ridge line which reaches its maximum extent at the northern edge of the island. The Carnegie estate "Dungeness" was located on the southern end of the island with a narrow waist extending for several miles to the north of that location. It appears that the northern portions of Cumberland Island suffered the heaviest, once again suggesting the northern portion of the eyewall passed over this area as the eye transited across the central portions of the island, a very narrow geographical area.

A few reports from the island, "Frank Fader reported his boat, the MAUD HELEN, was left stranded on a bluff 20 feet above the water (italics and bold face added by author). At High Point, damage at Hotel Cumberland was estimated to be $5,000, and its Cupola smashed. The Macon Row cottages were completely destroyed when pillars washed away. The Atlanta Row houses were unroofed and undermined. The pavilion in front of the hotel was wrecked. All that remained of the wharf on the riverside of the island were the piling."⁽¹²⁾ High Point is at the extreme northern portion and is the highest point on the central ridge being characterized by elevations of twenty to twenty-five feet above Mean Sea Level.

Even at high tide, High Point requires a Category four to five hurricane (see table 9) to flood these locations, however further proof of this level of intensity can not be collaborated from other locations or narratives. The grounding of the Maud Helen is confirmed by the New York Times, "The Cumberland Island Pilot Boat Maud Helen was landed high on a bluff in a yard."⁽¹³⁾ This report would tend to add credence to the later description presented by Mrs. Eloise Bailey Thompson. It is possible that wave run up may be responsible for these extreme reports, however it does appear unlikely that a category two storm could cause this extent of damage at this location.

Fernandina and Amelia Island: The Fernandina Mirror reported, "On last Sunday morning our citizens were awakened by a storm from the northwest, At seven o'clock the wind was blowing at a rate of about 40 miles per hour when the barometer suddenly went down to 29.02 (982.7 mb, added by author).

"Between eight and nine o'clock the wind had reached a velocity of 90 or 100 miles per hour..."⁽¹⁴⁾ At Fernandina and Amelia Island great destruction occurred along both the ocean front and on the sound side. It is significant that the observer at Fernandina reported the increasing winds from the northwest and did not remark on a substantial wind shift. Due to the town of Fernandina's exposed position to a northwest wind, extensive sound side flooding with significant wave action occurred at this location, which was absent in locations further north.

Jacksonville: The Florida Times Union reported, "A peculiar feature of the hurricane is that the winds started in from the north, and shifted around to the south before last night. The wind went from the north to northwest, then west, and southwest, and then south."⁽¹⁵⁾ The wind shifts described in the article indicate Jacksonville remained on the southern side of the hurricane and was closer to the center than the current archived track data would indicate. The minimum pressure recorded at the Jacksonville Weather Bureau was 29.07 inches or 985 mb and the highest sustained wind velocity was sixty mph from the west.

Summary of the historical data: The only report of a calm has been recorded in the town of St. Marys in southern Camden County, Georgia, as well as the most significant wind shifts. All reports to the north of Camden County, both related to the wind direction and the character of the storm surge, indicate that the wind direction continued with an easterly component throughout the event with no evidence of significant sound side flooding or wave action noted. In north Florida, reports indicate a significant veering of the winds from a north through west to southwest WITH major sound side flooding occurring on Amelia Island in the town of Fernandina. These reports are consistent with a hurricane making landfall just to the north of the Florida-Georgia Border.

As highlighted previously, Ho (1989) calculated a central pressure of 27.91 inches/945 mb for this storm at the time of landfall. The micro-barograph charts at landfall for Jacksonville (figure 9a), Savannah (figure 9b), Charleston (figure 9c) and Jupiter (figure 9d) are provided. The trace at Jacksonville indicates a significant barogram "V" pattern, while Savannah's trace is much more subdued. If the current archived track data were representative of the actual landfall point we would expect a greater pressure fall and steeper decline at Savannah and the converse at Jacksonville. The lowest pressures recorded at landfall are 29.38 inches/995 mb at Savannah and 29.07 inches/985 mb at Jacksonville. A pressure of 29.02 inches/983 mb was given by the Fernandina Mirror prior to the height of the storm.

If Ho's pressure estimate is taken as accurate and we use the current archived track landfall point at Sapelo Island, then the pressure gradient between Savannah and Sapelo Island (to the right of the storm motion) would be approximately 50 mb over 40 NM, and 40 mb over 65 NM between Jacksonville (to the left of the storm motion) and the center. Yet during the event Both Jacksonville and Savannah reported maximum wind velocities of 60 mph (Monthly Weather Review, 1898, Ho 1989 and Partagas and Dias 1996). The great intensity of the winds and destruction in St Mary's and Fernandina Beach are not likely to be supported by this pressure gradient.

If , on the other hand, we accept Ho's pressure estimate and the track suggested here and by Partagas and Dias, then the pressure gradient between the center and Jacksonville would be adjusted to 40 mb over a 30 NM distance. This is more supportive of the intensity of winds in the Fernandina Beach area. The pressure gradient between Savannah and the center would continue to be 50 mb but now over a distance of 75 miles. Due to the gradient between a large high to the north of the hurricane and an asymmetrical wind field due to an approximate 15 mph forward motion, a case can be made for a slightly broader wind field to the north of the center. This would be a common characteristic of a storm along this section of the coast and this late in the season. Based on the information presented above, the archived estimate of the storm's path across southeast Georgia and the wind fields are presented in figure 10. A comparison between the archived, "Best" track and the suggested corrected track is presented in figure 11.

Conclusions and recommendations: The pre-storm environment is of great importance to modern day emergency managers, local officials and meteorologists. This synoptic situation was one were the pre-event tidal values and meteorological conditions would likely impede an orderly evacuation from various exposed portions along the Georgia coast. As this storm seems to be representative of previous events (1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1881 and 1893) Emergency management officials along the middle Georgia coast should plan on the possibility of localized tidal flooding during future evacuations. This becomes especially important in light of the extended period since the last event and the growth of population, industry and military facilities along this portion of the coast.

Based on wind directions and shifts, surge height, wave action and pressure estimates a track further south than the current archived track is suggested by the data. The recommendation from this study is that the track as presented by Partagas and Diaz should be accepted as the archived track with the final landfall point being placed on central Cumberland Island near and just to the north of Dungeness (the Carnegie Estate).

The intensity of this storm remains somewhat problematical especially in relation to the height of the storm surge. As stated earlier, the hurricane occurred during a full moon phase, with the full moon having peaked on September 29^th and the first quarter moon peaking on October 7^th. October is the period of peak Spring Tides for the Georgia coast with a mean tidal variation during this period of 7.5 to 9 feet. The hurricane struck near the time of high tide and as pointed out by Horace Gould the strong northeasterly flow had already caused higher than normal tides along the Georgia coast. Based on the estimated storm tides at Jekyll Island (19.0 feet), the pilot boat Maud Helen grounding, and the High Point, Cumberland Island flooding reports one could support category four status for this storm.

When viewed in light of the larger scale evidence, it seems likely that Ho's intensity estimate of 945 mb is more reasonable than the category two status currently assigned this event. Given the uncertainties associated with the height of the storm tide additional work needs to be done in this regard and a more extensive study should be conducted, using modern computer modeling techniques, to better refine the storm's intensity.

It is recommended that the archived intensity and track estimates on this event be adjusted to reflect a minimum intensity value of a strong category three storm with winds of 113 knot/130 mph, moving on a west-northwest course with a 12 kt/15 mph Speed of Advance (SOA) and making final landfall on central Cumberland Island.

1. Dunn, G. E, and Miller, B. I.., Atlantic Hurricanes, Louisiana state University Press, Baton

3. Sullivan, Buddy, Early Days on the Georgia Tidewater, The story of McIntosh County and Sapelo, The Darien News, Darien, Ga, Page 512.

6. The Grob Letters, The Gentlemen's Club archive, Jekyll Island, Ga. Page 354-5.