SPC AC 240107
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC 15
ENE RTN PUB 35 WNW LIC 40 W SNY 30 NNE AIA 50 S PHP 10 NNE PIR 45
WNW HON 10 SE HON GRI 10 N CNK MHK 35 NW JLN 20 WNW HRO 30 NNE HOT
35 N TXK 40 ENE DUA 35 NE ADM OKC 40 WNW CSM TCC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
SEM 15 SSE LGC 45 E MCN 60 W SAV 15 NNW AYS 10 WSW MGR 20 SSW DHN 30
NNE CEW 35 S SEM 10 NW SEM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM IGM 20 NNW
GCN BCE 40 SSE U24 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD COD REJ 30 ESE MOT 55 NE MOT

...CONT... 10 SW RRT 10 NNW AXN 35 ESE OMA 45 N JLN ARG 10 WNW TUP
RMG 50 E CHA 30 NE TYS 35 W LOZ 25 WSW LEX 15 WNW LUK 35 S FDY 40
WNW CLE ...CONT... 25 WSW ERI 30 WNW AOO BWI 30 NE SBY ...CONT... 25
SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH LFK 45 SSE DAL 10 WNW SEP
15 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF
45 SE 4OM 15 N BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN AL INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN GA...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN AR...
NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM SRN NEB TO NRN OK.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AIDING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH THE SRN EXTENT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. MEANWHILE...A COMBINATION OF A SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AND A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL/
NRN OK NWWD INTO KS AND ERN CO.
STRONG CAP...CURRENTLY EAST OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM
NERN NM TO SWRN NEB...SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. EVENTUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN TX INTO KS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN
NEB/KS AND POTENTIALLY NRN OK. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE THE MCS/S DEVELOP
AND TRACK SEWD.

...AL/GA...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AN MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS GA WILL SUPPORT
ASCENT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITHIN AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH.
..PETERS.. 05/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.