SPC MCD 091005
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-091200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091005Z - 091200Z
A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN WI AND
THE WRN U.P. OF MI THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG
WINDS AS TSTMS MOVE EAST.
RECENT OBSERVED WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 60KT AT LXL WAS NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF BOWING CONVECTION MOVING EAST AT 50-55KT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MCS CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL MN
EARLY TODAY. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE ST. CROIX RIVER VLY NORTH
TO DLH AND EAST INTO THE U.P. WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS COLD POOL COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SRN EDGE OF FAST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AND EVOLUTION...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO REACH THE
EDGE OF WW 704 BY 11Z. IF CURRENT INTENSITY AND SPEED IS
MAINTAINED...THE BOW COULD SPREAD ACROSS NRN WI AND INTO THE WRN
U.P. OF MI BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z AND A NEW WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...
45628938 45699310 46989309 47158924
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091410
SPC MCD 091410
MIZ000-WIZ000-091545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI INTO NRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091410Z - 091545Z
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E
OF WW 705 BY 15Z AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
SHORT SEGMENT BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN UP OF MI INTO NERN WI WITH AN OBSERVED
MOTION OF 270/45-50 KTS. 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WHICH
WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. MODIFICATION OF THIS
SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR
MASS SUGGESTS THAT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY BECOMING SURFACE
BASED WITH A RECENT REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE IN VILAS COUNTY WI
VERIFYING THIS NOTION.
ASSUMING CURRENT SYSTEM MOTION...EXTRAPOLATION TAKES LEADING EDGE OF
BOW ECHO E OF WW 705 BY 15Z. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM CLOUD
COVER /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/ ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...SUGGESTING AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI AND POSSIBLY NRN LOWER MI.
..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
46638740 46428366 45078397 45338750
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091625
SPC MCD 091625
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-091800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091625Z - 091800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NRN/CNTRL MN. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR RESIDES OVER MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OBSERVED
WITH SWWD EXTENT.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG SRN MN
PORTION FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY TEND TO BE MORE
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE SWWD INTO NERN NEB...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
42709948 43189876 43739767 44449619 44769455 44489372
44009354 43279395 42459496 41559822 42079958
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091651
SPC MCD 091651
WIZ000-MNZ000-091815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091651Z - 091815Z
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO E AND W OF STC WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO
THE N OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MPX 0.5 DEGREE BASE
REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD...THUS
INTENSIFYING STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SOME AIR MASS
MODIFICATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT DIABATIC
HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER NWRN WI.
RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN/CNTRL MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED.
..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
45089491 45669497 46209413 46449259 46629111 46238997
45788994 45059085 44809203 44699406
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091755
SPC MCD 091755
TXZ000-091930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091755Z - 091930Z
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE OVER MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN INTO SERN TX AND WILL
SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE...AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT N OF BOUNDARY DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 10-20 KTS.
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND WEAK SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN
THREAT. HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER W CENTRAL TX WHERE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS.
..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
31359670 31859596 32069539 31259401 29849408 29279508
28789564 28689634 28979718 30950050 32180158 33110187
32780157 32950103 32860014 32279958 31529786
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091850
SPC MCD 091850
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-092015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA / SRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091850Z - 092015Z
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT.
12Z PHOENIX RAOB INDICATES EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS PRESENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. ALTHOUGH
WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
STORMS SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY....WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS DESPITE WARM AND MOIST PROFILES.
18Z RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING SWWD ACROSS SRN
NV AND NWRN AZ. STORMS AND OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO SERN CA
AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LOWER PRESSURES...AND MAY POSE
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...
32661619 33541668 34091698 35871602 35931468 35151376
34571306 34621175 34091040 33201000 31931026 31331049
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091956
SPC MCD 091956
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091956Z - 092130Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW
IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM TSTM COMPLEX OVER KNOX...ANTELOPE...HOLT AND WHEELER
COUNTIES IN NEB WSWWD INTO THOMAS COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TCU
LINE FROM YUMA INTO PUEBLO COUNTIES IN ERN CO. AIR MASS S OF FRONTAL
ZONE HAS HEATED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST
INSTABILITY EXISTING OVER CNTRL INTO ERN NEB WITHIN AXIS OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE...HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THAT BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS
GENERALLY N OF THE NEB/SD BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR TENDS TO DECREASE
WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...
42389853 41709841 40500006 39580124 38490250 38530349
39180315 41180158
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092226
SPC MCD 092226
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA TO NERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...708...
VALID 092226Z - 100000Z
...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ACROSS NRN IA
AND CENTRAL WI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DOWNSTREAM...
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FORCING MATURING
SQUALL LINE SEWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO CNTRL WI. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO EXPAND LINEARLY WITH EMBEDDED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES.
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTING THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF CURRENT WATCHES. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED SHORTLY.
..DARROW.. 08/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
42599558 44858983 44798754 44168818 42839214 41839457
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100000
SPC MCD 100000
NEZ000-KSZ000-100130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709...
VALID 100000Z - 100130Z
...STRONG STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE SLOWLY MERGING OVER SERN PORTIONS
OF THE WW. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WITHIN
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SFC-3KM VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 8C/KM. IT APPEARS SWD PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE AS SLY
INFLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15KT PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
NRN KS INTO SCNTRL NEB. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...IT APPEARS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WILL OCCUR BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES.
..DARROW.. 08/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
39680162 41040057 41549951 41339858 40169852
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100113
SPC MCD 100113
WIZ000-100245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...ERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...
VALID 100113Z - 100245Z
...SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ECNTRL/SERN
WI. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...
SURGING PORTION OF SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT
ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WI...ARCING FROM PORTAGE COUNTY TO
MARQUETTE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AT TIMES...AND ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES LAKE MI. MLCAPE VALUES
AHEAD OF CONVECTION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...LESS THAN
1000J/KG...SUPPORTING GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WW SHOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM.
..DARROW.. 08/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
43149036 43718918 44438870 44328749 43208796 42649005
NNNN