SPC AC 100112
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE SLO 40 ENE SGF 35 SSW OKC 20 ESE CSM 35 NNE CSM 30 S ICT
20 ENE EMP 40 NE MKC 10 N PIA 40 S CGX 25 ESE LAF 30 WSW BMG
10 SE SLO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SW ILM 30 SE TYS 15 NNE DYR 60 N HOT DUA 20 SE SJT 45 W SJT
30 S BGS 50 N CDS 45 NNW GAG 25 E DDC 30 ESE HLC 30 SSE HSI
35 NW FNB 45 SW RFD 20 ENE MKG 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 WSW ERI
15 NNE AOO 25 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 35 NNE MLS
40 SW GCC 35 N BFF 35 SW MHN 10 NNE GRI 40 ENE DSM 10 N LNR
30 ESE AUW 40 E MQT ...CONT... 10 N ROC 15 N BGM 15 ESE MSV
10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 40 W CAE 55 ESE CHA 25 ENE MEM
25 SW LIT 20 NE DAL 50 WSW JCT 45 NW DRT 25 SE FST 35 ESE PVW
50 NE AMA 10 E EHA 35 SE LHX 10 ESE ALS 35 WSW 4BL 15 NNW PGA
55 WNW P38 40 S U31 TVL 20 SSE MHS 50 NNW MFR 40 ENE PDX 20 S SEA
35 ENE BLI.

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN CO IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
ROUNDING BASE OF SW U.S. UPPER TROUGH. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS SEWD
THEN SWD THROUGH W TX FROM THE SURFACE LOW. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NRN OK NEWD THROUGH SERN KS INTO NRN MO AND TO AN OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO NERN NC.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH OK AND KS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND 0-2 KM SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THUS SUPERCELLS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD WITH
TIME...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SERN NEB...AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH
ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT.
FARTHER SWD INTO TX...ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED AND
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT FOR
INITIATION LATER TONIGHT WHEN CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NRN MO NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD THIS
AREA LATER TONIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS LATER
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

...VA/NC...
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVE SEWD ALONG BOUNDARY
THROUGH ERN NC. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM MAY EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INTO VA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

..DIAL.. 05/10/03