SPC MCD 101442
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO ERN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101442Z - 101615Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S THIS MORNING ACROSS OH INTO WRN PARTS OF
PA/NY...SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING
SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC
HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG.

TSTMS ONGOING ALONG THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NRN OH INTO WRN PA/NY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT VWPS
INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KTS IN THE LOWEST
6 KM/ WILL EXIST OVER ERN OH INTO WRN PA. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
40368292 40878279 41698133 42108015 43117889 43397833
43397764 43157722 42177731 40987881 40457995 40038121
39878251
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101459
SPC MCD 101459
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-101630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101459Z - 101630Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM JUST E OF MWN TO APPROXIMATELY 65 NNW BGR. 12Z
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH VT/NH. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.


..MEAD.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
45866780 45216788 44566958 43917117 44107172 44597168
45137109 45916957 46286874 46406820
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101829
SPC MCD 101829
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 101829Z - 102100Z
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SVR MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. A WW
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW REINFORCED
WARM FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. MEANWHILE...LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN A BIT AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS CELLS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS.

FARTHER S...ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED WITH SCATTERED STORMS FORMING
WITHIN HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING MECHANISM IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WITH PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. CURRENT GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES
AND WEAK WIND PROFILES SUPPORT BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN.

..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...
36719260 35779327 34899547 33499766 33359875 33479921
34109933 35849866 36939829 37779784 38059547 37969371
37689261 37079252
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101948
SPC MCD 101948
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590...

VALID 101948Z - 102045Z
THROUGH 22Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.

AS OF 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
TSTMS FROM NERN PA /20 NE OF FKL/ TO NEAR FDY IN NWRN OH. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THIS LINE WAS LOCATED OVER RICHLAND...ASHLAND AND
WAYNE COUNTIES IN OH WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 330/15 KTS. RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP PLOTS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40
KTS AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO. RESULTING WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATIVE OF A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

INDEED...PERIODIC MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH STRONGER
STORMS OVER NERN OH INTO NWRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATION OF
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE INDICATES LEADING EDGE
WILL MOVE S OF WW 590 BY 2130-2200Z. SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

..MEAD.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
40368316 40638262 40808176 40968091 41098044 40678026
40258036 40038163 39938273 39998307
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101958
SPC MCD 101958
MTZ000-IDZ000-102230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND NWRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101958Z - 102230Z
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL.
A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ERN WA INTO WRN MT.
COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH STORMS NOW EVOLVING FROM NRN ID INTO
NWRN MT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 35-40 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG LIVED CELLS TO DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY REACH 1.50" DIAMETER
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.


..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...
48951696 48971015 47540951 46481059 46331292 46401481
46821550 48031650
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SPC MCD 102154
OKZ000-TXZ000-110000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN OK / FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102154Z - 110000Z
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAVE LEFT COOL OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
OK. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY HOT />100F/ OVER SWRN
OK...WITH ABOUT 1.75 IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING. GIVEN THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DCAPE ~1000 J/KG IS
PRESENT ACROSS SWRN OK.

SLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR EVEN ATOP COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE
OVER CENTRAL OK. ALSO...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...WITH MEAN WINDS TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EWD.
THEREFORE...THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
I-40/I-44 CORRIDORS.


..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...
35360101 36309960 36449869 36629781 36469713 36099718
35829780 35219743 34999667 34609624 33949640 33859687
34179795 34629917 35000063
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110127
SPC MCD 110127
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 110127Z - 110400Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN/CENTRAL OK...BUT MERGING OUTFLOWS/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD DIMINISH HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR
TONIGHT.

A STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL OK...WHILE ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION...
STRETCHED FROM WEST OF TUL SWWD TO OKC AND LTS MOVING SLOWLY EWD.
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY MOIST
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE TX PANHANDLE...LIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WILL AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET FROM SWRN OK NEWD INTO SWRN MO BY MID
EVENING. THE MOIST AIR MASS BEING LIFTED ABOVE THE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE E-W
ORIENTED BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS WHERE
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.


..IMY.. 07/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
36169364 34959619 35169703 36159774 37309621 37949498
37959383 37429352 36999336
NNNN