FZAK80 PAFC 100259
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
ISSUED 6 PM AST WED 9 MAR 2005
FORECAST VALID MON 14 MAR 2005

PLEASE CALL THE ICE FORECASTER AT 907 266 5113 OR FAX TO ICE DESK
AT 907 266 5188 OR EMAIL TO RUSSPAGE.ICE@NOAA.GOV IF THE ANALYSIS
IN YOUR AREA IS WRONG. TYPE THE URL PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/ICE.PHP
IN LOWER CAST TO OBTAIN A GRAPHIC DEPICTION OF THE ICE ANALYSIS
AND 5 DAY ICE FORECAST ON THE INTERNET. PLEASE NOTE THAT TIMELY
DELIVERY OF DATA AND PRODUCTS THROUGH THE INTERNET IS NOT
GUARANTEED.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE. 

ARCTIC OCEAN.                                                    
SEA ICE COVERED.

BERING SEA.
AREA 9A. NORTON SOUND FROM SLEDGE ISLAND TO NUNAKTUK ISLAND
SEA ICE COVERED

AREA 14. ST. MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS.
AREA 9B. ST. LAWRENCE WATERS AND FROM DALL POINT TO WALES.
AREA 8. CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT.
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY NORTH PORTION.

THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM TOGIAK BAY TO 58.4N 162W TO 59N 165W TO
58.7N 166W TO 58.2N 173.5W TO 60.7N 179E TO 59.8N 174.5E TO 60.8N
175E TO 60N 171E AND SOUTH ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST. THE ICE EDGE
WEST OF 170W IS MAINLY 2 TO 8 TENTHS NEW ICE. THE ICE EDGE EAST
OF 170W IS MAINLY 5 TO 7 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE OFTEN IN
STRIPS. 

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG LOW PERSISTS NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONG GULF LOW MOVE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA BY FRIDAY. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ICE EDGE WEST OF 175W. EAST OF 175W AND ALONG THE ICE
EDGE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND THE FLOW
WILL BE VARIABLE.

WEST OF 175W THE ICE WILL MOVE 25 TO 35 NM TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THE EDGE WILL CONSIST OF NEW ICE FORMED UNDER
THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WARMER WATERS IN THE BERING WILL
INHIBIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ICE EDGE. 

EAST OF 175W THE ICE WILL RETREAT TO NUNIVAK ISLAND. MOST OF
BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ICE FREE EXCEPT FOR DEPOSITS OF RIVER ICE. 

AREAS 3A AND 4. COOK INLET AND KAMISHAK BAY.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES 5 TO 10 NM SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. THE
EDGE IS 1 TO 7 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE. 3 TO 6 TENTHS YOUNG ICE
PERSISTS IN THE BAYS ALONG WESTERN COOK INLET. 

ICE CONCENTRATIONS IN COOK INLET ARE GREATER TOWARD THE WESTERN
COAST. 

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS COOK INLET BY FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A MODERATE UP INLET
FLOW WILL COMPACT THE ICE EDGE FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  THIS UP
INLET FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL. SOME NEW ICE MAY FORM DURING NIGHTTIME LOWS
BUT WILL NOT SURVIVE THE DAYTIME HIGHS. 

THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH 20 TO 30 NM BY MONDAY. ICE
CONCENTRATIONS ALONG THE EDGE WILL INCREASE. AREAS OF OPEN WATER
WILL CONTINUE IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
COOK INLET NORTH OF NIKISKI. 

REMEMBER ICE CONCENTRATIONS IN COOK INLET VARY GREATLY WITH THE
TIDES. 

KAC MAR 2005

$$