FXUS65 KBYZ 100251 AAA
AFDBIL

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 PM MDT MON JUN 09 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
UPDATE TO AFP AND ZFP ON THE WAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PULL POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WHERE SOME ACTIVITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SNEAK IN
BEFORE 06Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT SPEED MAX PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH
BULLSEYE OF DIVERGENCE NEAR LEFT EXIT REGION. BOTH ETA AND MESOETA
SPREADING QPF ACROSS WESTERN CWA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
ENTERING DISTURBANCE...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS...WITH BEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE IN NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NECESSARY. JZ


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY FOR ADDING
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK WAVE TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. LATEST FROM THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UNSTABLE AIR OVER THAT REGION...YET
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND SHOWERS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO LEAVING
THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUN. REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SPRINGER



    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/076 052/078 051/081 053/085 056/085 054/079 052/078
    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T
LVM 045/077 047/079 046/079 048/083 051/083 049/076 047/076
    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T
HDN 050/077 052/079 051/083 053/087 056/087 054/079 052/078
    23/T    30/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T
MLS 050/074 052/076 051/083 053/089 056/085 054/081 052/078
    03/T    33/T    02/W    20/B    00/B    03/T    33/T
4BQ 050/074 052/076 051/083 053/086 056/085 054/080 052/078
    03/T    33/T    02/W    20/B    00/B    03/T    33/T
BHK 048/072 050/074 049/077 051/086 054/083 052/082 050/078
    03/T    33/T    02/W    20/B    00/B    03/T    33/T
SHR 048/077 050/079 049/080 051/083 054/083 052/079 050/078
    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T


.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
$$