Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 05/15/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 13 2007 .SYNOPSIS... ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...DRY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)... LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG WERE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WRN SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 1600 FT WITH SW WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 7 MB SAN-IPL. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY WEAK TROUGHING IN SRN CA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN LOCAL HEIGHTS/THICKNESS/850 MB TEMPS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND BY WED. A WEAK INTERMITTENT EDDY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL GET INTO THE COASTAL AREAS...MOST SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS AND FAR WRN INLAND EMPIRE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN SW FLOW ALOFT. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL WITH JUST SLIGHT WARMING WED. VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE N RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE LOCAL WEATHER. FAIR EXCEPT FOR MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND LOCAL WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. && .AVIATION... 132010Z...WEAK COASTAL EDDY IN PLACE. VFR AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MARINE LAYER JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE BACK INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SPREADING TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY 06Z. BECOMING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FEET AND TOPS AROUND 2500 FEET. STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT MONDAY WITH LATER CLEARING. WINDS AT 5K FT...WEST 5-10 KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-10 KT MON AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 10K FT...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT MON MORNING...THEN SOUTH 5-10 KT MON AFTERNOON. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...CLARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007 .DISCUSSION...SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 4-5 MILES IN SMOKE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES TOWARDS SUNRISE AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TAKE PLACE. NAM-WRF DID AN EXCELLENT JOB YESTERDAY IN DEPICTING WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPED. ITS SOLUTION THIS MORNING LOOKS VERY REASONABLE SO FOLLOWED THIS MODEL VERY CLOSELY...PLACING THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND TRENDING LOWER TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. NAM-WRF SHOWS A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE...NOT ONLY FROM THE SEA BREEZES BUT ALSO FROM A WEAK TROUGH LYING ACROSS THIS AREA. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE H5 TEMPS AROUND -13C AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE PALM BEACH REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...LI`S AROUND -8C AND FAIRLY WIDE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER. THUS...WILL ADD TO THE FCST THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS IN THIS REGION. TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ALLOW THE SMOKE TO LEAVE THE AREA...THOUGH VISIBLE SAT IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY SHOW THAT THE SMOKE HAS SPREAD EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL...SO IT COULD TAKE UNTIL MONDAY FOR THE SMOKE TO ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FL MON-WED...WITH GFS SHOWING PWATS CLIMBING TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...NAM SLIGHTLY LOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE GOOD CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. HPC FORECASTS A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...A WELCOME SIGHT. LATE IN THE WEEK GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. HELD OFF ON THIS IDEA FOR NOW MAKING ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST. && .AVIATION...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS WITH SMOKE AND HAZE. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO BE MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN BUILDING AND THIS WILL ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP FROM ABOUT 16Z TO 18Z AND PUSH INLAND. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. && .MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THEN. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AS MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 72 83 73 / 40 40 50 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 73 84 75 / 30 30 50 50 MIAMI 87 73 85 74 / 30 30 50 50 NAPLES 85 69 89 67 / 20 20 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/DG AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
700 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS... 215 PM CDT CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON UPCOMING FNTL SYSTEM MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE PLAINS TNGT. STG CONVECTION PRESENT ON WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT SPEARHEAD OF THETA-E RIDGE...WHILE ELSEWHERE ALONG FRONT EXTENDING SW THRU MN AND ERN NEB...CONVECTION IS RATHER MINIMAL. THIS SO EVEN WITH CAPES THERE OF 2K J/KG...BUT WITH PROHIBITIVE CIN VALUES. WHILE MAIN SFC LOW TRAVELS EAST ACROSS LK SUP TNGT AND INTO SW QUEBEC TUESDAY...ASSOC TRAILING COLD FNT CROSSES INTO NW IL...MOVG THRU CHI AREA AROUND MIDDAY. CAPES AND INTENSITY OF THETA-E RIDGE QUITE SUBDUED TUESDAY IN IL AND INDY. WILL LIKELY NEED SFC HEATING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80 TO FIRE INTO ANYTHING RESEMBLING SEVERE. THUS HAVE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CHI AREA SW THRU LIVINGSTON COUNTY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE AFTN. FRZG LEVELS WAY UP ARND 12K TUESDAY AND WIND PROFILE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME DRYNESS IN MID LVLS MAY BE ENUF TO PRODUCE SVR WIND THREAT IF ANY SEVERE AT ALL TMRW. FROPA AT RFD IN MRNG TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO 70 WITH POST FNTL WINDS FLIPPING TO NW AND CAA INCOMING EARLY IN DAY. FNT SPREADING THRU CHI AREA ERLY AFTN AND THRU FA TOTALLY BY EARLY EVENING. THUS MAY HAVE TSTM THREAT THRU 02Z TUES EVENING IN SRN PTN OF FA BEFORE ENDING. GFS HAS BECOME FAVORED MODEL OF CHOICE OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND. IT IS SHOWING ITSELF TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN NAM...DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG UPCOMING FNTL BOUNDARY AND PUSHING BACK ADVECTION INTO AND THRU FA. CAA AND DRYING SPREADING SE TUES NGT AND WED. UPR TROF SWINGING THRU WED NGT MAY BRING IN SECONDARY THREAT OF LITE RAIN WED NGT. AFTER THAT REST OF WEEK IS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES RGN. GFS PRESENTING A FLY IN OINTMENT SATURDAY WITH COLD FNT DROPPING SE FROM ONTARIO DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS PNEUMONIA FNT MAY LOWER TEMPS THRU SAT AFTN BEFORE RECOVERING ON SUNDAY...AS THIS FNT LIFTS NORTH AGAIN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. AN OUTSIDE CHC OF RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FNT LATE ON SATURDAY...BUT AM LEAVING DRY FOR NOW. RIDGE FINALLY PASSING EAST OF FA MONDAY. NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL FOLLOW THIS RIDGE TUESDAY AND WED OF NEXT WEEK. SUPER-SEASONAL WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT BE REPEATED THIS WEEK. IN FACT...CAA BEHIND TUESDAYS FNT WILL REMIND US WED AND THURSDAY OF LAST WEEKS INFLUX OF COLD LAKE TEMPS. AS UPR RIDGING FROM THE WEST BUILDS IN THRU THE WEEKEND...70S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR THE FA. SUNSHINE SHUD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT AS WELL...TEMPORARILY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WITH THE PNEUMONIA FNT A POSSIBILITY. RLB && .AVIATION... 700 PM CDT FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE/PCPN POTENTIAL/TIMING AND WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TUESDAY. LATE AFTN SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICH...NEAR KIWD. FARTHER SOUTH...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN DEEPLY MIXED WARM SECTOR WITH 21Z ACARS ASCENT SOUNDING FROM KORD SHOWING ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 750 MB. SOUTHWEST WINDS 210-230 DEG IN 20-30 KT RANGE...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN GUST MAGNITUDE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AND SHALLOW INVERSION TRIES TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS IN 15 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF OVRNGT HOURS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP/THUNDER POTENTIAL WHICH INCREASES BY TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NRN WI TO JUST NORTH KOMA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY DVLPG ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN LLVL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT AXIS. APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND LOWER DWPTS FARTHER EAST...ALTHOUGH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES POOL OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 DEG ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR. WRF/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EDGING INTO FCST AREA AFTER 06-09Z WITH 500 J/KG OF POSITIVE AREA NOTED FOR ELEVATED PARCEL LIFTED FROM ABOUT 820 MB. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF WEAKENING VCSH/CB IN KRFD AFTER 09Z TUES MORNING...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RW/TRW THERE LATER IN MORNING AS MID LVL TROF AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES ACROSS MIDWEST AND LLVL FRONT APPROACHES. MID MORNING TO MIDDAY APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CHI AREA TERMINALS...WITH FROPA AND WINDSHIFT TO NNW BY EARLY AFTN. POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RW/TRW POST FRONTAL TUES AFTN AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST...WHILE FOCUS SHIFT SOUTH OF TERMINALS MID/LATE AFTN FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD COLD FRONT. WITH WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL COOLING BEHIND FRONT TUES AFTN...WRF FCST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM SVRL MODELS SUGGESTS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CIG DVLPMNT. HAVE TRENDED TO AN MVFR CIG LATER AFTN HOURS ATTM. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU 12Z TUESDAY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1120 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007 .UPDATE... SFC LO HAS REACHED SCNTRL LK SUP...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT STRETCHING SWWD TO ARND IMT. TSRA HAVE ENDED TO THE NW OF THE FNT...BUT SOME STRONG TSRA STILL OVER NRN DELTA/NW SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AND ALSO ACRS SCNTRL MNM COUNTY IN AXIS OF HIER SB CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF FNT. HOWEVER...STABILITY IS HIER FARTHER E...SO PREVIOUS WATCH 271 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM EDT AS SCHEDULED AND NO WATCH WAS EXTENDED FARTHER E. DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FNT...BUT 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MSTR BLO H7. EXTENSIVE LO CLD UPSTREAM WITH SHARP N WIND THAT GUSTED UP TO 35 KT AT ISLE ROYALE DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR GRT LKS AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING LLVL INVRN AS HINTED ON 01Z TAMDAR SDNG FM YQT. SOME SHRA ALSO NOTED UPSTREAM WITH MSTR UP TO H7 ON INL SDNG IN ADVANCE OF FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVING THRU ND. SO MAINTAINED GOING CHC OF SHRA AS MOISTER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND IMMEDIATE DRYING IN WAKE OF FNT. KC .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING... SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM NRN MN AND A COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT OVER NE MN AS PER SFC ANALYSIS. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED LARGE HAIL IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER. THERE WAS EVEN A REPORT OF SHATTERED CAR WINDOWS NEAR NEGAUNEE FROM 3-INCH HAILSTONES. THESE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY 5 PM. .TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM MN. WITHIN THE PAST HR...SOME STORMS FINALLY BREAKING THROUGH WEAK CAP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER ERN MN. SPC MESOANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WHERE STORMS ARE NOW FIRING AND EVEN 2000+ J/KG SBCAPE OVER SW UPR MI. WITH FAVORABLE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE....WOULD EXPECT THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO FIRE OVER WRN UPR MI AROUND 23Z WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FRONT. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-55 KT AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE 250-400 M2/S2 IN A SHARPLY VEERING PROFILE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SO NOT ONLY COULD SEE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS SVR THREATS...BUT ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION WITH APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ALL THESE THREATS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE ALONG WITH SVR THREAT AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SE OF THE FCST AREA BY 06Z OR AFTER. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT/SFC LOW WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW. && VOSS .LONG TERM TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CHASING WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST A RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE WEAK LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. NAM/GFS SHOWING THE MUCAPE >100 J/KG WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. K INDEX WILL BE ONLY AROUND 30 OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.P. IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO <18 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL 140KT JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PLACING THE U.P. UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION PRODUCING STRONG DIVERGENCE. EVEN THOUGH MUCAPE IS WEAK THERE IS STILL IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8K FEET AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 12K IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO < 3K AND < 4K FEET RESPECTIVELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPICTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE TO 1 KM RH WILL BE AROUND 80 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. K INDEX WILL BE AROUND 20 AND LI`S WILL BE AROUND 4. FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE > 13K FEET. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT DOUBT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING...THUS WILL KEEP CHANCE OF FROST IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING AND DRY. THE ECMWF/GFS DEPICTS MOVING THE MID LEVEL LOW TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A FLATTEN RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SLIPS SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWED BY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH. MEANWHILE A 1030MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS THE DEEP MOISTURE FOCUS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE GFS IS DRAWING THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FAVORING ADDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL DIG AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO LOWER BY BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH THAT IS PUSHING THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST TO JAMES BAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF ARE CALLING FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO BE BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THIS RIDGE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THUS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK WARRANTED. DLG && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
434 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .DISCUSSION...GPS MET DATA SHOWS PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LYING TO OUR SOUTH WITH STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR EVEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE H5 TEMP AT MIA AT -11C...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS RESIDUAL COLD AIR CONTINUING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS LIKELY WILL INHIBIT THE GULF SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT ONLY STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE SINCE THIS THREAT LOOKS TOO MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WED THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU...MAINTAINING TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING...GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...SO MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED AND INTERIOR/EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW SPINNING UP OUT OF THE CARIB THU BUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS FEATURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HPC QPF NOW SHOWS AN AREAL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 INCH OF RAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE STRONGER STORMS (AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AT NAPLES...WHERE 2.91 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.) THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...SO IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL POPS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN THE 50S. GFS SHOWS THIS DRY PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .AVIATION...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH EAST WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALSO PREVENT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AND WILL LEAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS. && .MARINE...ATLANTIC C-MAN STATIONS SHOW WINDS AT AROUND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LAKE OKEECHOBEE SENSORS SHOW 20 KT WINDS AS WELL. THUS...WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BISCAYNE BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THEN. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH`S WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...SO NO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY LOWERING RH`S INTO THE 30S THEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 81 74 84 73 / 60 40 70 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 81 74 83 73 / 70 40 70 40 MIAMI 81 73 84 74 / 70 40 70 40 NAPLES 85 68 88 70 / 70 40 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610- AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/DG AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WICHITA KS
358 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .DISCUSSION... TODAY: INITIAL CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FASTER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC GETS THE NOD ON TIMING. ANTICIPATE TRAILING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST UNTIL 300MB TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT IN ACARS/PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR LOOP PASSES. SO FAR...FORTUNATELY TRAILING PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE. PRESSURE RISES ON 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOW GOOD RISES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS AND WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL GENERATION... WOULD EXPLAIN CURRENT SPEED. RUC TIMING IS LOOKING GOOD...AND SUGGEST THAT IT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS EXPECTED. PLAN TO ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND SOME LATE RECOVERY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT: WITH SUBSIDENCE AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING ...HOWEVER CURRENT SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING WITH HEIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS. THU: QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THU AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI. -HOWERTON && .AVIATION... MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 49 73 49 / 80 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 72 48 74 48 / 80 0 0 0 NEWTON 68 49 73 50 / 80 0 0 0 ELDORADO 67 47 72 49 / 80 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 45 72 47 / 60 10 0 0 RUSSELL 70 44 74 48 / 50 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 70 46 74 48 / 50 0 0 0 SALINA 70 45 74 48 / 70 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 70 48 74 48 / 70 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 72 50 73 47 / 70 10 0 0 CHANUTE 72 48 72 47 / 80 10 0 0 IOLA 70 48 72 47 / 80 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 73 49 73 49 / 70 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>049. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .DISCUSSION... TODAY: INITIAL CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FASTER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC GETS THE NOD ON TIMING. ANTICIPATE TRAILING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST UNTIL 300MB TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT IN ACARS/PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR LOOP PASSES. SO FAR...FORTUNATELY TRAILING PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE. PRESSURE RISES ON 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOW GOOD RISES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS AND WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL GENERATION... WOULD EXPLAIN CURRENT SPEED. RUC TIMING IS LOOKING GOOD...AND SUGGEST THAT IT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS EXPECTED. PLAN TO ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND SOME LATE RECOVERY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT: WITH SUBSIDENCE AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING ...HOWEVER CURRENT SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING WITH HEIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS. THU: QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THU AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI. -HOWERTON && .AVIATION... MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSTMS SHUD IMPROVE DURG THE DAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 49 73 49 / 80 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 72 48 74 48 / 80 0 0 0 NEWTON 68 49 73 50 / 80 0 0 0 ELDORADO 67 47 72 49 / 80 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 45 72 47 / 60 10 0 0 RUSSELL 70 44 74 48 / 50 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 70 46 74 48 / 50 0 0 0 SALINA 70 45 74 48 / 70 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 70 48 74 48 / 70 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 72 50 73 47 / 70 10 0 0 CHANUTE 72 48 72 47 / 80 10 0 0 IOLA 70 48 72 47 / 80 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 73 49 73 49 / 70 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>049. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE N.C. COAST MOVING EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT AND EASTERLIES ARE QUITE STRONGER SO A SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAKE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX IN TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE LESSENS. ATTM, THE CWF WILL NOT BE CHANGED AT UPDATE TIME. THE ZFP WILL BE UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING TO REMOVE MORNING REFERENCES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ DISCUSSION...GPS MET DATA SHOWS PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LYING TO OUR SOUTH WITH STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR EVEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE H5 TEMP AT MIA AT -11C...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS RESIDUAL COLD AIR CONTINUING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS LIKELY WILL INHIBIT THE GULF SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL HIGHLIGHT ONLY STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE SINCE THIS THREAT LOOKS TOO MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WED THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU...MAINTAINING TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING...GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...SO MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED AND INTERIOR/EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW SPINNING UP OUT OF THE CARIB THU BUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS FEATURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HPC QPF NOW SHOWS AN AREAL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 INCH OF RAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE STRONGER STORMS (AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AT NAPLES...WHERE 2.91 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.) THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...SO IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL POPS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN THE 50S. GFS SHOWS THIS DRY PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. AVIATION...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH EAST WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALSO PREVENT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AND WILL LEAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS. MARINE...ATLANTIC C-MAN STATIONS SHOW WINDS AT AROUND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LAKE OKEECHOBEE SENSORS SHOW 20 KT WINDS AS WELL. THUS...WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BISCAYNE BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THEN. FIRE WEATHER...RH`S WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...SO NO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY LOWERING RH`S INTO THE 30S THEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 81 73 84 72 / 60 40 70 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 81 74 83 73 / 70 40 70 40 MIAMI 81 73 84 74 / 70 40 70 40 NAPLES 85 68 88 70 / 70 40 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610- AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...18/GR SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
708 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS. SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...WITH HAYS AND HILL CITY ALREADY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THOUGHT THE THREAT TOO SMALL/BRIEF TO INCLUDE AS A TEMPO GROUP. KLEINSASSER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: INITIAL CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FASTER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC GETS THE NOD ON TIMING. ANTICIPATE TRAILING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST UNTIL 300MB TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT IN ACARS/PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR LOOP PASSES. SO FAR...FORTUNATELY TRAILING PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE. PRESSURE RISES ON 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOW GOOD RISES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS AND WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL GENERATION... WOULD EXPLAIN CURRENT SPEED. RUC TIMING IS LOOKING GOOD...AND SUGGEST THAT IT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS EXPECTED. PLAN TO ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND SOME LATE RECOVERY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT: WITH SUBSIDENCE AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING ...HOWEVER CURRENT SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING WITH HEIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS. THU: QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THU AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI. -HOWERTON AVIATION... MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 49 73 49 / 80 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 72 48 74 48 / 80 0 0 0 NEWTON 68 49 73 50 / 80 0 0 0 ELDORADO 67 47 72 49 / 80 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 45 72 47 / 60 10 0 0 RUSSELL 70 44 74 48 / 50 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 70 46 74 48 / 50 0 0 0 SALINA 70 45 74 48 / 70 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 70 48 74 48 / 70 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 72 50 73 47 / 70 10 0 0 CHANUTE 72 48 72 47 / 80 10 0 0 IOLA 70 48 72 47 / 80 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 73 49 73 49 / 70 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT TIMES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE COASTAL EDDY...MARINE LAYER DEPTH...AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. QUITE HAZY IN THE VALLEYS AND STILL CLOUDY ON THE COAST. STILL EXPECT THE STRATUS TO RETREAT COMPLETELY TO THE WATERS EDGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO FLOW BACK IN TO THE COASTAL SLOPES WITH A 2500 FOOT DEPTH. OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING AN UNCHANGING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS WITH MAINLY WEAK CYCLONIC DRY 582 WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE DAILY WEAK 4 MB ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH NIGHTLY RETURN OF A 2500 FT DEEP MARINE LAYER FOR NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW CUMULUS TO PUFF UP OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS SOME AFTERNOONS. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY LOW 90S UPPER DES...UPPER 90S LOWER DES...70S MTS...LOW- MID 70S COASTS...LOW-MID 80S VALLEYS WITH HAZY SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION... 151930Z...LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 2500 FEET SINCE THIS MORNING. STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FEET...WAS MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT THAN EXPECTED. STRATUS SHOULD PULL TO NEAR THE COAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN PUSH BACK INLAND THIS EVENING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET REACHING THE INLAND VALLEY AREAS BE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A LITTLE EARLIER CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND CIRRUS ABOVE FL150 AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAF SUITE... SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF. OTHERWISE...A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS BY THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY CLEARING/CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS OF TAF VALID TIME ACROSS ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. KED && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ UPDATE... BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MESO/MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO REDUCED QPF IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS/SKY AND TEMPS A BIT TO REFLECT A BIT MORE WIND THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT DOWN TWEAK TO MAXS IN A FEW LOCALES. KED PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ AVIATION... 12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS. SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...WITH HAYS AND HILL CITY ALREADY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THOUGHT THE THREAT TOO SMALL/BRIEF TO INCLUDE AS A TEMPO GROUP. KLEINSASSER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: INITIAL CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FASTER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC GETS THE NOD ON TIMING. ANTICIPATE TRAILING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST UNTIL 300MB TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT IN ACARS/PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR LOOP PASSES. SO FAR...FORTUNATELY TRAILING PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE. PRESSURE RISES ON 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOW GOOD RISES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS AND WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL GENERATION... WOULD EXPLAIN CURRENT SPEED. RUC TIMING IS LOOKING GOOD...AND SUGGEST THAT IT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS EXPECTED. PLAN TO ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND SOME LATE RECOVERY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT: WITH SUBSIDENCE AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING ...HOWEVER CURRENT SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING WITH HEIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS. THU: QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THU AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI. -HOWERTON AVIATION... MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 49 73 49 / 10 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 69 48 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 68 49 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 66 47 72 49 / 20 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 68 45 72 47 / 20 10 0 0 RUSSELL 69 44 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 69 46 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 69 45 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 69 48 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 70 50 73 47 / 50 10 0 0 CHANUTE 69 48 72 47 / 50 10 0 0 IOLA 68 48 72 47 / 50 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 70 49 73 49 / 50 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .UPDATE... BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MESO/MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO REDUCED QPF IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS/SKY AND TEMPS A BIT TO REFLECT A BIT MORE WIND THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT DOWN TWEAK TO MAXS IN A FEW LOCALES. KED && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ AVIATION... 12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS. SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...WITH HAYS AND HILL CITY ALREADY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THOUGHT THE THREAT TOO SMALL/BRIEF TO INCLUDE AS A TEMPO GROUP. KLEINSASSER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: INITIAL CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FASTER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC GETS THE NOD ON TIMING. ANTICIPATE TRAILING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST UNTIL 300MB TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT IN ACARS/PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR LOOP PASSES. SO FAR...FORTUNATELY TRAILING PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE. PRESSURE RISES ON 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOW GOOD RISES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS AND WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL GENERATION... WOULD EXPLAIN CURRENT SPEED. RUC TIMING IS LOOKING GOOD...AND SUGGEST THAT IT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS EXPECTED. PLAN TO ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND SOME LATE RECOVERY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT: WITH SUBSIDENCE AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MIST/FOG DEVELOPING ...HOWEVER CURRENT SOUNDING SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING WITH HEIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS. THU: QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THU AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI. -HOWERTON AVIATION... MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 49 73 49 / 10 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 69 48 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 68 49 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 66 47 72 49 / 20 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 68 45 72 47 / 20 10 0 0 RUSSELL 69 44 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 69 46 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 69 45 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 69 48 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 70 50 73 47 / 50 10 0 0 CHANUTE 69 48 72 47 / 50 10 0 0 IOLA 68 48 72 47 / 50 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 70 49 73 49 / 50 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$