AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
215 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...
215 PM CDT
CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON UPCOMING FNTL SYSTEM MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE
PLAINS TNGT. STG CONVECTION PRESENT ON WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT
SPEARHEAD OF THETA-E RIDGE...WHILE ELSEWHERE ALONG FRONT EXTENDING
SW THRU MN AND ERN NEB...CONVECTION IS RATHER MINIMAL. THIS SO EVEN
WITH CAPES THERE OF 2K J/KG...BUT WITH PROHIBITIVE CIN VALUES. WHILE
MAIN SFC LOW TRAVELS EAST ACROSS LK SUP TNGT AND INTO SW QUEBEC
TUESDAY...ASSOC TRAILING COLD FNT CROSSES INTO NW IL...MOVG THRU CHI
AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
CAPES AND INTENSITY OF THETA-E RIDGE QUITE SUBDUED TUESDAY IN IL AND
INDY. WILL LIKELY NEED SFC HEATING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80 TO
FIRE INTO ANYTHING RESEMBLING SEVERE. THUS HAVE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE CHI AREA SW THRU LIVINGSTON COUNTY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR
THE AFTN. FRZG LEVELS WAY UP ARND 12K TUESDAY AND WIND PROFILE
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME DRYNESS IN MID LVLS MAY BE ENUF TO
PRODUCE SVR WIND THREAT IF ANY SEVERE AT ALL TMRW.
FROPA AT RFD IN MRNG TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO 70 WITH
POST FNTL WINDS FLIPPING TO NW AND CAA INCOMING EARLY IN DAY. FNT
SPREADING THRU CHI AREA ERLY AFTN AND THRU FA TOTALLY BY EARLY
EVENING. THUS MAY HAVE TSTM THREAT THRU 02Z TUES EVENING IN SRN PTN
OF FA BEFORE ENDING.
GFS HAS BECOME FAVORED MODEL OF CHOICE OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND. IT IS
SHOWING ITSELF TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN NAM...DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG
UPCOMING FNTL BOUNDARY AND PUSHING BACK ADVECTION INTO AND THRU FA.
CAA AND DRYING SPREADING SE TUES NGT AND WED. UPR TROF SWINGING THRU
WED NGT MAY BRING IN SECONDARY THREAT OF LITE RAIN WED NGT. AFTER
THAT REST OF WEEK IS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MS VLY AND
GREAT LAKES RGN. GFS PRESENTING A FLY IN OINTMENT SATURDAY WITH COLD
FNT DROPPING SE FROM ONTARIO DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS PNEUMONIA FNT
MAY LOWER TEMPS THRU SAT AFTN BEFORE RECOVERING ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
FNT LIFTS NORTH AGAIN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. AN OUTSIDE CHC OF RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FNT LATE ON
SATURDAY...BUT AM LEAVING DRY FOR NOW. RIDGE FINALLY PASSING EAST OF
FA MONDAY. NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL FOLLOW THIS RIDGE TUESDAY AND WED
OF NEXT WEEK.
SUPER-SEASONAL WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT BE REPEATED THIS WEEK. IN
FACT...CAA BEHIND TUESDAYS FNT WILL REMIND US WED AND THURSDAY OF
LAST WEEKS INFLUX OF COLD LAKE TEMPS. AS UPR RIDGING FROM THE WEST
BUILDS IN THRU THE WEEKEND...70S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR THE
FA. SUNSHINE SHUD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT AS WELL...TEMPORARILY EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WITH THE PNEUMONIA FNT A
POSSIBILITY.
RLB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY BY 21 UTC ACROSS ORD
AND GYY AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE AN EARLIER PASSAGE ACROSS ROCKFORD.
THE WIND WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BECOMING LARGER AND THE
INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TONIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN ROCKFORD BY 12 UTC. DURING THE DAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH HEATING THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SCATTERED SO WILL ADD
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY UNTIL 17 UTC FOR THE AIRPORTS AROUND
THE CHICAGO AREA. THEN WILL ADD A TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18 UTC.
USED THE LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST. THE ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION AND ITS DEMISE WELL FOR ORD TODAY.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
152 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING...FROPA TUESDAY AND TEMPS BETWEEN NOW
AND FROPA. RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPS LEVELING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD AT THESE LEVELS BEFORE BEGINNING A RAPID RISE
THIS MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...DRY GROUND AND 850MB TEMPS
AS WARM AS +17C...WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE AND THIS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO COOL. THUS...UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE WITH
A FEW 90 DEGREE TEMPS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH. LAKESHORE AREAS WILL
ALSO SEE UPPER 80S AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY AND LOW
LEVELS MIX VERY WELL. SW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AND
PLAN TO GO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AND CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
EAST OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD THIN DURING THE MORNING HRS.
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH
A SLOWER FROPA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE NAM...WHICH IS PREFERRED. EXPECT MUCH OF TONIGHT TO
BE DRY...PERHAPS ACTIVITY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL GO RIGHT BACK INTO THE 80S. IN
FACT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE METRO AREA TO TAG 80 BEFORE FROPA...
FURTHER SOUTH MID AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S LOOK POSSIBLE. THIS
DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE AND LATEST
SWODY2 NOW HAS SLGT RISK FOR THIS AREA WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
FRONT CLEARS CWA BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO
MAINLY NORTH OF CWA...BUT THIS WILL PUSH COOLER AIR FURTHER SOUTH
AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS NE IL DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND FLOW OF THE LAKE. HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES
OFF HIGHS WED/THURS. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE FIRST 2
WEEKS OF MAY AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE WEEKEND WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THE SFC SOIL/GROUND REMAINS VERY DRY AS VEGETATION CONTINUES TO
GREEN UP. 10HR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPED TO 7 PERCENT TODAY AT THE DUNES
AND MIDEWIN. WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND NO PRECIP...THE SAME
10 HR FUEL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY STRONG BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30-35MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW IL. SO MEETING THE FIRST TWO LOCAL RED FLAG
CRITERIA LOOKS GOOD. THE THIRD CRITERIA...RH...IS QUITE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS SURGING THRU THE 40S
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES FROM
25-35 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE AND THIS WOULD BE JUST ABOVE LOCAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA. WITH LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS AS CLOSE AS WESTERN IL AND
EASTERN IA THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE ON REACHING RH CRITERIA RATHER
LOW. SO NO HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THRU
THE DAY. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY. CMS
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH FOR ORD TODAY IS 92 SET IN 1982 AND THE RECORD HIGH FOR
RFD TODAY IS 91 SET 1932. CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS OF 87 AT BOTH
ORD AND RFD TODAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL NOT REACH THESE
RECORDS...A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY APPROACH
90 BY LATE AFTERNOON. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY BY 21 UTC ACROSS ORD
AND GYY AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE AN EARLIER PASSAGE ACROSS ROCKFORD.
THE WIND WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BECOMING LARGER AND THE
INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TONIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN ROCKFORD BY 12 UTC. DURING THE DAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH HEATING THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SCATTERED SO WILL ADD
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY UNTIL 17 UTC FOR THE AIRPORTS AROUND
THE CHICAGO AREA. THEN WILL ADD A TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18 UTC.
USED THE LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST. THE ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION AND ITS DEMISE WELL FOR ORD TODAY.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS A
MCS ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ADVANCES TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL A 90-120KT NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1027MB
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...WHICH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH ATLANTA.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTH FROM A 1002MB CYCLONE IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THEN EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM WHAT WE HAD IN THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WITH
DECAYING MCS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OFF CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE REFLECTED IN GRIDS IN
RESPONSE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY GET AFFECTED MORE SO THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY MILDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE
FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT REALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED WORDING FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER
WEST FOR ANYTHING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THREAT FOR
SEVERE REMAINS. GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAILS THE FRONT AND DOESN`T MOVE OVERHEAD
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HWO WORDING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. A TWIST IN
THE LONG TERM COULD BE A LOW SPINNING UP OFF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
RACING NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. SO FAR...THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL
OFF THE COAST. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN CASE IT INCHES FURTHER
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE 00Z ETA MOS/06Z GFS MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TODAY AS NORTHERLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY LATE.
PROXIMITY 06Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE
ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LWX 4KM WRF-ARW
MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STRONG
NEAR TERM...LASORSA/ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...LASORSA/STRONG
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...LASORSA/ROGOWSKI
MARINE...LASORSA/ROGOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
802 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS A
MCS ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ADVANCES TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL A 90-120KT NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1027MB
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...WHICH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH ATLANTA.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTH FROM A 1002MB CYCLONE IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THEN EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
ALLOWED FROST ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL EBB OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN WITH
SOUTH BREEZES TAKING HOLD. ONLY OTHER WEATHER PLAYER IS THE MID
LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TNT. WITH SOME
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH IT...MORE SO TO OUR N IN PA...THERE WILL BE SOME
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. SO WILL REFLECT IN THE GRIDS
A PATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. N AND E AREAS GET AFFECTED MORE SO THAN AREAS S
AND W. USED THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SKY COVER GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE
FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT REALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED WORDING FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER
WEST FOR ANYTHING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THREAT FOR
SEVERE REMAINS. GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAILS THE FRONT AND DOESN`T MOVE OVERHEAD
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HWO WORDING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. A TWIST IN
THE LONG TERM COULD BE A LOW SPINNING UP OFF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
RACING NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. SO FAR...THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL
OFF THE COAST. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN CASE IT INCHES FURTHER
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS STATED ABOVE BKN250
DESCENDING TO BKN090 AND BKN100 EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. WEAK N AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORN
WILL BE REPLACED BY LIGHT S WINDS LATER THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT N AND NE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY S WINDS
BY MIDDAY. THOSE WINDS WILL INC AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF SCA AS
WINDS CHANNEL UP THE BAY TONIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGH LEFT S WINDS AT 15
KT ON THE BAY CHANNEL TNT. WIND GRIDS FROM THE LOCAL WRF WERE USED
AS A STARTING POINT FOR TDAY AND TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STRONG
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...STRONG
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...STRONG
MARINE...STRONG
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