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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/22/09 1229Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1200Z KUSSELSON

NOAA AMSU:1032Z  NASA TRMM:0322Z/0450Z

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LOCATION...W NEVADA...N AND C CALIFORNIA...W OREGON...

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ATTN WFOS...REV...HNX...LOX...MFR...STO...MTR...EKA...

ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...CNRFC...

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EVENT...MOISTURE PLUME NARROW BUT WELL ESTABLISHED AND POINTING GOOD

ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND N CA AND ON INTO THE N SIERRAS/SISKIYOUS...

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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOISTURE PLUME OR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WELL

ESTABLISHED AND STRETCHED OUT/NARROW AND CENTERED 20N/140W TO

SAN LUIS OBISPO/MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.  THIS FIRE HOSE IS SET TO BLAST

AWAY WITH HVY PRECIPITATION AS JET RIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH INTO SFO

BAY AREA AND N SIERRAS. UPPER LOW HAS PULLED NORTH AND NOW AT 44.5N/133W

AND WITH ONE VORT LIFTING JUST OFF OREGON COAST...LOOKING FOR SHORT

WAVE DESTABILIZERS THAT WILL SQUEEZE MOISTURE OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND N

CA INTO THE SIERRAS AND SISKIYOUS.  WE SEE A WEAK VORT AT 36N/134W THAT

WILL TEAM UP WITH JET TO START PRODUCING HVYER PRECIP MONTEREY/SFO BAY

COAST NORTHWARD AND WORK INLAND TODAY.  MORE IMPORTANT VORT AT 32N/141.5W

BEGINNING TO SWING AND WILL TAP MORE OF THE DEEPER PLUME MOISTURE AND

HELP POINT MORE OF THE TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL TO N CA COAST

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR MODERATE TO HVY PRECIP.  AND THAT MOISTURE

TAP IS SUBSTANTIAL AS SHOWN BY LATEST NASA TRMM PASS THAT SHOWED ALMOST

SOLID RAIN AREA WITH TROPICAL PLUME OF NEAR 1.5 DEG LAT WD WAITING TO

BE FULLY TAPPED.

COUPLE OF THINGS TO BE WATCHFUL FOR...SLIVER OF DRY AIR/LOWER PW VALUES

THAT HAVE COME WEST OFF BAJA WERE TURNING NORTH TOWARD FAR S CA COAST AND

HELPING TO MAKE PW MOISTURE PLUME NARROW...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL KEEP

FULL BLAST OF HVY RAIN FROM MAKING MUCH IF ANY INROADS INTO SOUTHERN CA

FROM LAX SOUTHWARD...MAYBE A LITTLE NORTH OF THAT...JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP

AN EYE ON.   ALSO STRENGTH OF VORT AT 32N/141W CAN'T BE TOO STRONG OR IT

WILL TRY NUDGE MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR MOISTURE

PLUME COULD WEAKEN OF TRY TO NUDGE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH

TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE

SHORTLY AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW...



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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.

....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:

HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/

...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/

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LAT...LON 4315 12377 3801 11919 3450 11978 3178 12254 4053 12518



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