FXUS63 KABR 100238
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
840 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2004

.UPDATE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS 
EVENING.  ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY ZL-. THEREFORE A FORECAST UPDATE 
WAS IN ORDER.  ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS AND WAS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAT 
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS MOST OF CWA WILL ERODE.  UPDATES ALREADY 
ISSUED. 

&&  

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATION OF 
CLOUDS TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED OVER ALL BUT THE 
FAR WESTERN CWA AS OF 20Z...WITH JUST A HINT OF ERODING ON THE 
WESTERN EDGE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE REGION 
TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT FOR A WHILE...WHICH SHOULD 
AID IN KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND. A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH 
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT DOES NOT TRACK ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL 
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CURRENT THINKING IS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG 
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...WITH THEM 
FINALLY ERODING AWAY TOWARD MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. AN 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN SOME AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES 
OVER THE TOP OF IT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS 
SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE MAINLY MID 
TO HIGH CLOUDS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REST OF 
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THOSE SYSTEMS WILL STAY FAR 
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST THAT THE CWA WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. 
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARM 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. H85 TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING 
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL 
SOME ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST FEATURES CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...AND 
SEVERAL QUICK MOVING WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP 
THROUGH SEVERAL PERIODS. DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIP FOR SEVERAL 
REASONS...MAINLY THE SPEED OF THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAKE EACH EVENT 
SHORT LIVED...AND EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES COULD...AND PROBABLY 
WILL...SQUEEZE EVERY GRAM OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE AIRMASS WITH EACH 
SHOT OF INCREASINGLY FRIGID AIR. MY BEST SOLUTION IS TO WORK ON 
PERSISTENCE RIGHT NOW...AND LET EXACT TIMING ISSUES BE DETAILED AS 
WE GET CLOSER.

TEMPERATURES REALLY LOOK TO FALL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME 
INDICATIONS OF H85 TEMPS BELOW -32C...WITH GOOD SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE JUST NORTHWEST OVER EXTENSIVE MONTANA SNOWPACK...AND THE 
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY MIXING TO A BARE MINIMUM. 
LATEST 12UTC ENSEMBLE NUMBERS VERIFY THE CONTINUED TREND OF DROPPING 
THE BOTTOM OUT OF TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME SPREAD IN 
THE MEMBERS...BUT ALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN. ONLY 
POSITIVE FACTOR WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW SNOWPACK SHOULD LET US MIX 
A BIT...AND WON'T ANCHOR COLD DOME OVER US. WITH THIS 
SCENARIO...LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT 
LEFT SOME ROOM TO GO COLDER IF ARCTIC PUSH IS AS COLD AS SOME 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
TDK/PARKIN/HARDING