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FXUS65 KMSO 160611
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1211 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY AND SNOW ADVISORY OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KALISPELL AND THE
WINDS AND SNOWFALL HAS DECREASED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009/
..STRONG GUSTY WINDS REGION WIDE TONIGHT...
DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING...HAVING JUST PASSED
THROUGH THE MISSOULA AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ABOVE 4500 FEET AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING SEEN AHEAD
OF...ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE...AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE BEING MIXED TO THE SURFACE AS AN ASSOCIATED
140 KNOT JET STREAM PUNCHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MT THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER LEMHI COUNTY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS SEEN ABOVE 5000 FEET. HENCE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
IN EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY IN THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 200 ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
BITTERROOT VALLEY BACK TOWARDS GRANGEVILLE...IDAHO. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALONG THE FRONT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAINS AND
PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT VERY GUSTY WINDS
WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND IMPACT KGPI AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE HAS PUSHED SNOW LEVELS INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN MOST OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE RESTRICTED THE REMAINING ADVISORIES TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED STEADILY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MANY AREAS ARE SEEING WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...BUT THE GRANGEVILLE
AREA WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN
THE FRONT PASSES THAT AREA.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA
LATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THOSE
AREAS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AS THE FRONT AND AN UPPER JET STALL OVER THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE
LINGER WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL...PRIMARILY FOR
TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES.
ON MONDAY...THE JET/SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT WITH THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS TERRAIN COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES AT TIMES WITH THESE FEATURES.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
PATTERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. AT CURRENT TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ANY STRONG OR IMPRESSIVE FEATURE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
THAT WOULD CAUSE MORE THAN NUISANCE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN PASSES...UNTIL POSSIBLY THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WEST
GLACIER REGION.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KOLATA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...FELSCH