000 FGUS61 KTIR 122235 ESGTIR FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER, WILMINGTON OH 635 PM EDT THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2009 FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BUT ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN THE FAR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY... MARCH FLOOD OUTLOOK... MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 27. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN AVERAGE. THE MOST IMPACTED BASINS WILL BE THE WABASH...MAUMEE...AND GREAT LAKES BASIN. NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IN MARCH MEANS MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME POINTS REACHING MODERATE OR HIGHER FLOODS. REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC FOR THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS. ALSO REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR DETAILED MONTHLY OUTLOOKS BY CLICKING ON WATER RESOURCE MAP IN THE LEFT HAND COLUMN. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS..REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE: 1. WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK 2. THE WETNESS OF THE SOILS 3. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL 4. HIGH STREAMFLOWS AND RESERVOIR LEVELS 5. ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS SNOWPACK... LITTLE OR NO SNOWPACK IS LEFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ICE... ICE IS NOT A CONCERN ON RIVERS WITHIN THE OHIO VALLEY. STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE... OBSERVED STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAUMEE AND WABASH DRAINAGE AREA DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. RESERVOIR LEVELS... MOST FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE NEAR WINTER POOL FLOOD CONTROL ELEVATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WHERE LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. EARLY MARCH OBSERVED RAINFALLL... RAINFALL WAS 2 TO 6 OR MORE INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WHICH WAS 200 TO 600% OF NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WAS 50 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH IS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 27... THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS CALLED FOR ON LAST WEEKS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK OCCURRED CAUSING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE PATTERN APPEAR THAT IT WILL RELAX SOME FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERLY. SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY CROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND CUMERLAND DRAINAGE AREAS AS THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE COMING WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE PATTERN MAY BECOME ACTIVE SOMETIME IN WEEK 2 AND POSSIBLY INTO WEEK 3 WHICH WOULD BE LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL. RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN THE COMING DAYS BUT A RENEWED FLOOD THREAT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEYOND MARCH 23. ...PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW AND FLOOD FLOW FOR SOME MAINSTEM OHIO RIVER POINTS, AS OF MARCH 12, ARE AS FOLLOWS: DASHIELDS - 103% / 31% HUNTINGTON - 80% / 32% CINCINNATI - 64% / 32% LOUISVILLE - 58% / 28% EVANSVILLE - 49% / 26% ...PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR TRIBUTARIES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS OF MARCH 12, 2009 ALLEGHENY - 150% TO 300% KENTUCKY - 25% TO 50% MONONGAHELA - 20% TO 40% LICKING - 20% TO 30% BEAVER - 150% TO 300% GREEN - 30% TO 50% MUSKINGUM - 30% TO 85% WHITE - 40% TO 60% KANAWHA - 20% TO 30% WABASH - 100% TO 500% SANDY - 25% TO 50% LITTLE WABASH - 50% TO 70% SCIOTO - 75% TO 150% MAUMEE - 800% TO 1000% MIAMI - 30% TO 60% CUMBERLAND - 30% TO 50% ...BASED ON ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS HERE ARE THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE FOR POINTS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. AGU - FRANKLIN <5% AGL - ACMETONIA <5% OHC - CINCINNATI <5% MNU - GRAYS LANDING <5% KTY - FRANKFORT <5% MKL - BRADDOCK <5% OHL - LOUISVILLE <5% BVR - BEAVER <5% GRN - CALHOUN <5% OHW - PITTSBURGH <5% EFW - SHOALS <5% MKH - MCCONNELSVLLE <5% WHT - PETERSBURG <5% HOC - ATHENS <5% WBU - LAFAYETE >95% OHP - MARIETTA <5% WBL - MT CARMEL 25% KAN - KANAWHA <5% LWA - CLAY CITY <5% SAY - FULLER STATION <5% OHS - EVANSVILLE <5% SCI - PIKETON <5% MAU - WATERVILLE >95% OHH - HUNTINGTON <5% GTL - MILAN <5% MIM - MIAMITOWN <5% CMU - CELINA <5% CML - CML - NASHVILLE <5% ...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD... POINTS ALONG THE FOLLOWING RIVER BASINS WERE IN FLOOD THURSDAY MORNING: RIVER BASIN FORECAST POINT FLOOD STAGE LATEST STG TENDENCY * EEL RIVER NORTH MANCHESTER 9 12.2 FALLING TIPPECANOE RIVER ORA 12 15.4 STEADY TIPPECANOE RIVER WINAMAC 10 14.0 RISING WABASH RIVER WEST LAFAYETTE 11 21.8 FALLING WABASH RIVER COVINGTON 16 24.0 RISING WABASH RIVER MONTEZUMA 14 21.2 RISING WABASH RIVER TERRE HAUTE 14 16.5 RISING WABASH RIVER HUTSONVILLE 16 17.3 STEADY WABASH RIVER RIVERTON 15 15.6 RISING ST. JOSEPH RIVER MONTPELIER 12 15.1 STEADY ST. JOSEPH RIVER NEWVILLE 12 17.8 STEADY ST. MARY`S RIVER DECATUR 17 19.5 FALLING ST. JOSEPH RIVER ROOT SKI HAUS 12 19.6 STEADY MAUMEE RIVER FORT WAYNE 14 15.7 FALLING MAUMEE RIVER FORT WAYNE 17 23.7 STEADY TIFFIN RIVER STRYKER 11 18.0 FALLING BLANCHARD RIVER OTTAWA 23 24.1 FALLING MAUMEE RIVER DEFIANCE 21 22.3 FALLING MAUMEE RIVER DEFIANCE 10 17.6 FALLING MAUMEE RIVER NAPOLEON 12 16.5 FALLING MAUMEE RIVER GRAND RAPIDS 15 19.1 FALLING MAUMEE RIVER WATERVILLE 9 13.6 FALLING PORTAGE RIVER WOODVILLE 9 12.0 FALLING GRAND RIVER PAINESVILLE 8 8.5 FALLING THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR EVEN WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 19, 2009. $$ NOEL