FXUS63 KMQT 100230
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2003

MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES 
EAST AND TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH SYSTEM TO SW.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG MID/UPR LVL SHRTWV 
OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. STRONG UPR LVL DIV WITH RRQ OF H3 JET OVER WRN 
ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED LOW LVL RESPONSE WAS HELPING TO DRAW 
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE MO VALLEY. STRONG MCS HAD DEVELOPED FROM NE 
NEB INTO NW IA AIDED BY LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARD FRONTAL 
BNDRY AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER NE NEB. CLOSER TO HOME...ISOLD LIGHT 
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE LINGERING OVER THE ERN HLF OF THE 
CWA...SUPPORTED BY WEAK 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WAA ADVECTION 
REGIME AHEAD OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. 

WHILE -SHRA WERE MOVING EAST...CONTINUAL REDEVELOPMENT HAS KEPT 
COVERAGE GOING OVER CNTRL UPR MI. 00Z ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THIS 
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT GIVEN PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. ETA 
QPF...HOWEVER SEEMS OVERDONE. MDLS ALSO DELAY ONSET OF MAIN BATCH OF 
PCPN WITH PLAINS SHRTWV/LOW. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON INFLUENCE OF 
INTERACTION OF MCS WITH THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AS 00Z ETA KEEPS 
SFC LOW AND HEAVIEST QPF STRIPE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z/18Z 
MDLS FCST. WHILE BEST LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AND HEAVY PCPN 
REMAINS WELL TO THE SW...EXPECT MID AND UPR LVL DYNAMICS WILL BE 
SUFFICIENT BY TUE MORNING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN INTO UPR MI. 
HOWEVER...WILL DELAY TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA WITH ARRIVAL LATE FOR FAR 
SW AND TUE MORNING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

.MQT...NONE.

JLB