000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100226
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ONLY SLIGHTLY. T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE FAIR AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO CONDITIONS ARE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE BUT
GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT...ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO. IN
FACT...TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY MOVE HILDA WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 5 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 14.9N 115.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N 117.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.6N 124.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W    50 KT