MKC MCD 100936
KSZ000-MOZ000-101200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458 FOR NERN KS...W CNTRL/S CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILER DATA FROM MISSOURI AREA INDICATES DEEP
LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 25 KNOTS. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS EXISTS WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS...SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
MEMPHIS AREA IN UPCOMING 1300Z DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..CRAVEN.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 101154
MKC MCD 101154
MOZ000-ARZ000-101400-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459 FOR SRN MO/NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEATHER WATCH 536 INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER 1300Z. ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BOWING SEGMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING 325/25 KNOTS.
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY HAS
BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCHES.


..CRAVEN.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 101522
MKC MCD 101522
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-101700-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460 FOR ERN AR / WRN TN / NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS THEY ENCOUNTER A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EXTREME ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS. WW MAY BE
ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NERN AR HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE SE AT
30-35 KT DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
SEWD TRACK. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX INTO WRN TN/NRN MS
IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000-3500 J/KG. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS PER 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 101550
MKC MCD 101550
NYZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-MEZ000-MAZ000-101800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 FOR NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ONGOING CONVECTION PER REGIONAL RADARS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN NY TO
SWRN MAINE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AIRMASS OVER ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND HAS DESTABILIZED THIS MORNING
WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM NERN NY TO SWRN MAINE RANGING FROM 1000-
1500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG PER MORNING UA
ANALYSIS WITH 700-500 MB WLY FLOW AT 40-50 KT. LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL AID IN UPDRAFT
STRENGTH INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG WLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVING INTO NRN
NY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION...LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9 KFT WILL ALSO
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.


..PETERS.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 101658
MKC MCD 101658
NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-102000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462 FOR ERN PA/NJ/DE/MD/NRN VA/DC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN PA TO NRN VA AND THEN TRACK ESEWD
TO NJ/DE/ERN MD. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WW MAY BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM WV NNEWD INTO CENTRAL PA WHERE THE
AIRMASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-
1500 J/KG. CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN VA/MD/DE/NJ/ERN PA HAVE
ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND
70. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING. WNWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT 35-40 KT
COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING FROM NERN OH TO MD/PA/SRN NJ SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO TRACK SEWD WITHIN
THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY.


..PETERS.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 101759
MKC MCD 101759
MAZ000-CTZ000-RIZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-MEZ000-102000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463 FOR CENTRAL AND ERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537...

A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NRN NH INTO WRN MAINE IS
TRACKING TO THE ENE AT 20-30 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF WW 537 DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR. HOWEVER...AREAL EXTENT
OF SEVERE THREAT EAST OF CURRENT WW IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT AN
ADDITIONAL WW. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOUTH OF WW 537...IF ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS SWD.

STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NRN/ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
BTV VAD WINDS SHOWING WLY 500 MB WINDS AT 40-50 KT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN WW 537. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW OVER THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS. A
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..PETERS.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 101931
MKC MCD 101931
INZ000-OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-102300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464 FOR...IND/OH SWRN PA/WV AND MD...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
ABOVE AREAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS NRN IN AND OH. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE STORMS
HAVE INITIATED OVER DEKALB COUNTY IN NERN IND...AND OVER DEFIANCE
AND PAULDING COUNTIES OF NWRN OH. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTMS AS UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...
BASED ON VWP AND 18Z DTX SOUNDING...WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 102054
MKC MCD 102054
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-110000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466 FOR SRN PA/ERN WV/NRN VA/DC/MD/DE/NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM CHESTER
COUNTY PA AND EXTENDING WSWWD TO WASHINGTON COUNTY MD...WITH THESE
STORMS MOVING TO THE ESE AT 25-30 KT. MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG AND WNWLY FLOW GREATER THAN 40 KT ABOVE 3 KM OVER
CENTRAL AND WRN PA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.


..PETERS.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 102122
MKC MCD 102122
MAZ000-102230-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467 FOR CENTRAL AND ERN MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539...

MULTICELLULAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER
WORCESTER...HAMPSHIRE...AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES IN MA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING 270/30-35KT. THIS MOVEMENT PLACES THE STORMS NEAR I-95
CORRIDOR WEST OF BOS AT 10/2230Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS CROSS THE SEABREEZE FRONT
AND ULTIMATELY WEAKEN ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF ERN MA.
AT 10/21Z...SEABREEZE FRONT HAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY
SWWD ALONG I-95 BELT WEST OF BOS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AT SEVERE
INTENSITY AT TIMES UNTIL MOVING ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 10/23Z.
ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEABREEZE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF PULSE OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS
SWD PROPAGATION ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT
BRIEFLY DURING THE INTERACTION PERIOD AROUND 2230Z. STRONG WLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OUT TO SEA EAST OF
PLYMOUTH COUNTY AFTER 10/23Z.


..BANACOS.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 102140
MKC MCD 102140
WYZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 FOR NERN CO...ERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD
AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALLOWED RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER W TODAY TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPES FROM
2500 TO 3500 J/KG FROM ERN CO AND WY INTO WRN NEB AND SWRN SD.
GIVEN ONLY LIGHT SWLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT
SPREADS NEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS. STORMS
MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING SUPPORTED BY SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.
MCS MAY SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ESEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
WRN NEB.


..DIAL.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 102245
MKC MCD 102245
INZ000-OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-110100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469 FOR CNTRL IND...CNTRL/SRN OH...NRN WV
AND SWRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540...541...

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY.

STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN WV
AT 25 TO 30 KT. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES SWD. FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS IND AND
OH...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE ISOLATED. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS AREA OF MID-UPPER SUBSIDENCE TO S OF JET AXIS SPREADING SWD
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS SURFACE
HEATING DIMINISHES.


..DIAL.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 102358
MKC MCD 102358
MTZ000-110200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470 FOR ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542...

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAINLY WITH STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SERN MT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH ERN MT INTO SWRN ND FROM A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN ERN MT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS N OF THE BOUNDARY IS LIMITING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NERN MT.
MORE SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN WARM SECTOR FARTHER S AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER INSTABILITY IN SERN MT. STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD INTO SERN MT
WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.


..DIAL.. 07/10/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 110219
MKC MCD 110219
COZ000-WYZ000-NEZ000-110500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471 FOR NERN CO AND SERN WY THROUGH WRN
NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. RAINFALL RATES MAY ALSO
LOCALLY APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. WW IS
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH WRN NEB. INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY AND CO EWD ALONG AND S OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING EWD ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO NEB ALONG BOUNDARY
SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS STORMS DEVELOP
EWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SLOW STORM MOTION
AND RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE STRONGER
STORMS.


..DIAL.. 07/11/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 110315
MKC MCD 110315
NYZ000-PAZ000-110500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472 FOR WRN/SRN NY THROUGH NRN/CNTRL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE WITH
STORMS AS THEY SPREAD SEWD THROUGH NY AND PA NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS PROMOTING SOME
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. DESPITE COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO INCREASING WITH TIME AS
STRONGER FLOW ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK SPREADS SEWD. THIS SUGGEST
STORMS MIGHT MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO PA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW WITH 30 TO 50 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KM...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOW WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME THREAT
FOR HAIL.


..DIAL.. 07/11/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 110652
MKC MCD 110652
PAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-110900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473 FOR CNTRL/ERN PA/MUCH OF NJ/EXTREME
SERN NY INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN CENTRAL PA...THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD
THE NEW YORK CITY AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES A WEAK 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALL/RISE
COUPLET EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS IS
RELATED TO RATHER POTENT UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS SWATH
OF DRYING CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. COMBINATION OF 45 KNOT
500 MB FLOW AND MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SUGGESTS THAT FAST MOVING CELLS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS UNDER
10000 FEET AGL...LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

..CRAVEN.. 07/11/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 110735
MKC MCD 110735
NEZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-111100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474 FOR CNTRL/SERN NEB...NERN KS/
W CNTRL MO...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...

TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ECHOES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 1100Z IN A 50-70 MILE WIDE BAND FROM 30 S MHN TO 20 S LNK TO
35 SE SZL. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
EXTENDS WNW-ESE FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. VAD
WIND PROFILES NORTH OF BOUNDARY SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...INDICATIVE OF WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...0-6 KM
MEAN WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH MCS MOTION VECTORS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AT 5-10 KNOTS. BACKBUILDING/TRAINING WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...LINEAR MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING 240/30 KNOTS.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS MERGER OCCURRING BETWEEN MCS AND BACKBUILDING
STORMS IN VICINITY OF WESTERN CUSTER COUNTY NE AROUND 1000Z...WHICH
WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.


..CRAVEN.. 07/11/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 110845
MKC MCD 110845
PAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-CTZ000-111030-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475 FOR ERN PA/NJ SERN NY/SRN CT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OUT OF WEATHER
WATCH INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 0930 AND 1000Z. A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 30 KNOTS HAS PRODUCED WIND
GUST TO 52 KNOTS AT IPT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 500 MB FLOW AT BOTH
STATE COLLEGE PA AND BINGHAMTON HAS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS IN THE
PAST HOUR...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS STORMS CROSSING THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
BETWEEN 1100 AND 1200Z.


..CRAVEN.. 07/11/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 111132
MKC MCD 111132
PAZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-111300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476 FOR SERN PA/NRN NJ/LONG ISLAND NY/
CT/RI/SERN MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543...544...

THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING WESTERN CONNECTICUT WILL SPREAD INTO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AFTER 1330Z. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF WATCH 544 IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IN WHITE PLAINS NY/TETERBORO NJ AREA MOVING
270/40 KNOTS. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THESE STORMS MOVING DOWN LONG
ISLAND SOUND NY AND EXTENDING FROM MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT TO EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY NY BY 1300Z. WITH SUN UP...TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE JUMPED INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S F...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OF
INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STORMS.


..CRAVEN.. 07/11/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN