FXUS61 KBGM 100219
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
JUST ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.  
500 MB VORT LOBE HANGING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL NY HAS STRETCHED OUT 
QUITE A BIT...AND BEST CVA WILL BE OUT OF CWA SHORTLY.  ANY SHRA 
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO N OF CWA...WHERE 500 MB DYNAMICS ARE BETTER.  
ACTUALLY LATEST RUC/META INDICATING SOME WEAK 500 MB RIDGING MOVING 
IN BEFORE 12Z.  COHOCTON AT CAMPBELL HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...SO WARNING AHS BEEN DROPPED.  
-CEMPA 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...
NORTH TO SOUTH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CWA WITH ENHANCED 
SHOWERS ON IT.  BEHIND IT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP AND SOME LIGHT  
SHOWERS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN 
EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS IN L70S WITH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 
80. NOT QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY EVEN WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS. 

FOR TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL EXIT STAGE RIGHT THIS EVENING. SOME 
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND FRONT BUT WILL ALSO PUSH OUT OF CWA 
TONIGHT. THICK LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG TONIGHT BEFORE BREAKING UP 
FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN TONIGHT.

FRIDAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS BREAK UP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD IN TO BE OVER AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A GOOD RADITIONAL 
COOLING NIGHT SO ADDED FOG ENTIRE AREA. GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET 
ADDING TO THE LL MOISTURE. 

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A LOVELY MILD LATE SUMMER DAY WITH NO WORRIES AS 
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO COAST. COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH TO NW STILL THAT 
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL HERE. 
&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...
BY SUNDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE 
REGION.  ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE WEAKER...WE'LL 
STILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  DRY AND 
COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT 
WEEK...THANKS TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.  LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE 
AGREES FAIRLY WELL IN BUILDING THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED RAIN-FREE 
CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

THE FUTURE TRACK OF IVAN COULD HAVE A BEARING ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER 
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW...THOUGH...WE'LL GO 
ALONG WITH THE LONG RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ITS MOISTURE WILL 
STAY SOUTH OF NY AND PA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  
&& 

.AVIATION...
HOWEVER...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD 
PREVAIL...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS.  SOME IFR CEILINGS COULD 
ALSO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CEILING BASES SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH 
SOME CLEARING ULTIMATELY TAKING PLACE BY 15Z-16Z...HERALDING THE 
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.  -JUREWICZ/JML    

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE CHEMUNG AT BIG FLATS...WHICH IS 
CRESTING ATTM...AND WILL THEN FALL OVERNIGHT. AS ALL THIS WATER 
DUMPS OUT OF THE CHEMUNG BASIN INTO THE NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA IN 
PA...EXPECT RISES THERE...THOUGH ALL POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
BELOW FLOOD LEVELS.  -CEMPA

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...RIVER FLOOD WARNING AT ELMIRA/BIG FLATS. 
PA...NONE.

&&


$$