SPC MCD 101207
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS AND SRN THIRD OF MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101207Z - 101400Z
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS SRN MO.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF SRN MO NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST
ETA-KF INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE JUST ABOVE 3000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES /NEAR 8C/KM/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST INTERACTING WITH WRN EDGE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST N OF JLN - SGF LINE. LATEST
TRENDS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY ADVECTION INTO SWRN MO INDICATING THAT
HIGHER THETA-E VALUES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN MO WILL BE LOCATION OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
37279549 38009540 38329458 38229305 38059225 37999146
37829039 37328970 36599000 36159081 36309304 36369479
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101346
SPC MCD 101346
TXZ000-101545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101346Z - 101545Z
LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS S TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW FOR A WW
ATTM.

ANALYSIS SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS S TX WITH
MID TO UPPER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS PRESENT. ONGOING MCS WAS MOVING INTO
DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND MLCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR...LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP THE CONVECTIVE LINE
TO REMAIN SUSTAINED. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
MULTICELLS. IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE COLD POOLS...ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.


..BROYLES.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
27479946 28379879 29359776 29809690 28939557 27619682
26619792
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101524
SPC MCD 101524
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-101730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 101524Z - 101730Z
LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SE MO/SRN IL WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. NEW CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS ERN KS AND NRN/WCNTRL MO WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO S-CENTRAL KS...WITH A SFC
THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE MS
RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN IL AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE AXIS ACROSS SE MO. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
SRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PROFILERS IN SW MO SHOWED 35 KT OF FLOW AT 700 MB AND
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...ONGOING LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.


..BROYLES.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...
36659440 37499454 38369433 38509255 38509003 38398817
37488795 36668820 36619009 36599179 36589352
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101717 COR
SPC MCD 101717 COR
MOZ000-KSZ000-101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101717Z - 101915Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION INITIATES.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP OVER WRN MO WHICH HAS WEAKENED AS
IT SHIFTS EWD LATE THIS MORNING...AS IT HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED OVER PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL KS AND W-CENTRAL MO...WHERE
SBCAPES ARE NOW APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. AS CAP UNDERGOES FURTHER
WEAKENING AND MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR
THE FRONT...AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
RATHER WEAK ACCORDING TO LATEST VWPS/WIND PROFILERS...HOWEVER DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ONCE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INITIATES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


..EVANS.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
37059579 37239753 37959770 38919591 39439423 39579187
39189086 38369070 37589295
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101712
SPC MCD 101712
101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101712Z - 101915Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION INITIATES.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP OVER WRN MO WHICH HAS WEAKENED AS
IT SHIFTS EWD LATE THIS MORNING...AS IT HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED OVER PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL KS AND W-CENTRAL MO...WHERE
SBCAPES ARE NOW APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. AS CAP UNDERGOES FURTHER
WEAKENING AND MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR
THE FRONT...AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
RATHER WEAK ACCORDING TO LATEST VWPS/WIND PROFILERS...HOWEVER DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ONCE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INITIATES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


..EVANS.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101718
SPC MCD 101718
MOZ000-KSZ000-101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101718Z - 101915Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION INITIATES.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP OVER WRN MO WHICH HAS WEAKENED AS
IT SHIFTS EWD LATE THIS MORNING...AS IT HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED OVER PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL KS AND W-CENTRAL MO...WHERE
SBCAPES ARE NOW APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. AS CAP UNDERGOES FURTHER
WEAKENING AND MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR
THE FRONT...AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
RATHER WEAK ACCORDING TO LATEST VWPS/WIND PROFILERS...HOWEVER DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ONCE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INITIATES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.


..EVANS.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
37059579 37239753 37959770 38919591 39439423 39579187
39189086 38369070 37589295
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101722
SPC MCD 101722
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY/NCNTRL TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101722Z - 101915Z
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN KY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE LINE MAY HAVE A
BRIEF WIND GUST POTENTIAL HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FARTHER EAST.

LINEAR MCS WAS MOVING EWD TOWARD FALLING SFC PRESSURES ACROSS CNTRL
KY/CNTRL TN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ONLY MARGINAL AS
WELL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM 25 TO 30 KT SUGGESTING STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SFC PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET OVER CNTRL KY/CNTRL TN. AS
THE LINE MOVES EWD THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
POSSIBLE IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AND
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED.


..BROYLES.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
36308850 37388793 38258681 38068572 37538483 36898518
36248587 35648674
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101806
SPC MCD 101806
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY SWRN NEB PANHANDLE NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101806Z - 102000Z
WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION.
CONVECTION IS INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM SRN WY INTO NRN CO. MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT
ATTM IS MOVING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO SERN WY WHERE AIR MASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND A SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CELL OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

THOUGH AIR MASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE ATTM...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...OR ONGOING STRONG CELL OVER SERN WY INTENSIFIES
SIGNIFICANTLY...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..EVANS.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
41130587 41860527 42020421 41270263 40520220 39500227
39150330 39410505 40180591
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101812
SPC MCD 101812
MTZ000-IDZ000-102015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT/ID PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101812Z - 102015Z

...TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE AND WRN MT...
DIURNAL HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH LATEST SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LOW APPROACHING NW WASHINGTON...AND VWP DATA SUGGESTS
THE SHORTWAVE IS ACROSS CNTRL WA. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE AS WILL MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW
MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.


..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...
48501040 47890948 47560892 47200931 46920972 46331085
45601245 44961359 45651469 47201312 48471135
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101856
SPC MCD 101856
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/FAR SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101856Z - 102100Z
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN ERN OK AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NW
TX...WITH DRY SLOT SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL OK. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES CNTRL-ERN OK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SERN OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F. STRONG SFC
HEATING WAS OCCURRING AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
AXIS WITH 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS THE CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH THE INSTABILITY...SLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 25 KT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH COUPLED WITH THE 850 MB JET OVER ERN OK TO GET ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN
A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
STORM CLUSTERS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW.


..BROYLES.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
33829637 33939713 34299752 35009727 35849726 36589749
36999704 37189615 37319510 36249454 34969463 34089494
33879563
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102050
SPC MCD 102050
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN TX/FAR NE AL/NRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102050Z - 102245Z
LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE LINE.
WW MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS CNTRL TN/NRN AL/NRN GA WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WAS MOVING ESEWD ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM CNTRL TN SEWD INTO CNTRL GA.
INSTABILITY WAS STRONG S OF THE LINE WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...THOUGH EAST OF THE LINE INTO ERN TN
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS WEAK IN
THIS REGION...THE LOW-LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INCREASING
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD TOWARD THE
LINE. THE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IN THE SW PART OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS
THE STRONGEST. ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTH OF EAST AND
PROPAGATE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
35368692 36138644 36578575 36548563 36298470 35728372
35118377 34398446 34188517
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102207
SPC MCD 102207
ILZ000-MOZ000-110000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 102207Z - 110000Z
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS.

SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS EVOLVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI PAST FEW HOURS IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
BETWEEN JET STREAKS EMBEDDED WITHIN POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL BRANCHES
OF THE WESTERLIES APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED DEVELOPMENT...AND LOWER/MID
-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE READILY EVIDENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA.
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS
RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND LOW- LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS INTO THE
CARONDALE/MT VERNON IL MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 11/01Z. WARM THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
EVOLVING COLD POOL/MESO HIGH IN 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
38709045 38479066 38508999 38408904 37708900 37558951
37599048 37759111 38149247 38119109
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102242
SPC MCD 102242
OKZ000-TXZ000-110045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102242Z - 110045Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WHERE LOW MID-LEVEL CAP HAS
WEAKENED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH/CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44 BY LATE EVENING.

MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN
TOTALS MAY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THAT
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH MAY EVOLVE...PROVIDING A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SHIFTS
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING.


..KERR.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
34829900 35409829 35969781 36389717 36549648 36569578
36349520 35879489 35229516 34719595 34219675 34009733
34049850 34229900
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102255
SPC MCD 102255
MOZ000-KSZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 102255Z - 110030Z
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW 504 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 11/00Z.

SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT/MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHERE AIR MASS IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...
BUT PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE.

..KERR.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
37439886 37959804 38439698 38789565 39059455 39119393
39379271 39079229 38499326 38289412 38169463 37829597
37479693 37189812 37169872
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102320
SPC MCD 102320
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...EXTREME WRN SD...NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...NERN
NCO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102320Z - 110145Z
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WW NOT EXPECTED.

MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN WY AND NERN CO WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. WLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SELY SURFACE FLOW IS
PRODUCING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STRONGER WIND
PROFILES OVER NERN WY INTO SWRN SD UNDER UPPER JET ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY
PRESENT. OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS WITHIN THIS DATA SPARSE REGION
SHOWS 150-250 0-3 KM SRH. SHEAR PROFILES FROM SERN WY SWD INTO CO
FAVOR SPLITTING/MULTI CELLS...DUE TO RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER ERN CO WITH STORMS
MOVING WITH MORE OF A SLY COMPONENT...PRODUCING LARGER HAIL.
STRONG CIN GRADIENT ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL
NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO SD BEFORE DISSIPATING. FURTHER S...MORE AREA
EXISTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NWRN KS...WHERE A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG WITH MINIMAL CIN. INCREASING SELY
LLJ IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND INTO EARLY
EVENING.


..JEWELL.. 06/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
43310578 44840570 44610346 43830327 42710304 39220065
39280483
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110000
SPC MCD 110000
MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-110200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID / WRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

VALID 110000Z - 110200Z
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE REGION. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A CONTINUATION OF SUNSHINE WILL MAINTAIN THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT INSTABILITY VALUES WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE SOUTH OF EAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE SR HELICITY...PROVIDING A STORM STRUCTURE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE WW WHERE
TEMP/DEW SPREADS ARE LARGER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.


..JEWELL.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...
49041753 48961224 45891193 46001573
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110028
SPC MCD 110028
ILZ000-MOZ000-110300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SW...S CNTRL AND PARTS OF E CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 110028Z - 110300Z
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS WW 506. IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BECOMES INCREASING THREAT.

SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY..HOWEVER VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
ALONG/NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTH
OF FARMINGTON INTO THE VICHY AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING UPSTREAM...ROUGHLY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 INTO
THE JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD AREAS. CONVECTION LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING ENHANCED AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.

LARGE CAPE IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR LARGE HAIL IN ISOLATED STRONGEST CELLS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THIS THREAT MAY BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY ONSET OF RADIATIONAL
SURFACE COOLING. PRIMARY THREAT LIKELY WILL BECOME EXCESSIVE RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN GROWING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z.


..KERR.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
37689453 38049363 38219256 38479148 38168991 37688931
37098972 37169052 37169140 36819233 36669422
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110057
SPC MCD 110057
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...SRN OH...NRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110057Z - 110300Z
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY EAST OF WW 507.

EASTWARD MOTION TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS
ACCELERATED TO NEAR 50 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING ALONG WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE IN...LOUISVILLE AND LEXINGTON KY
AREAS. AT PRESENT SPEED...ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
LEXINGTON AREA BY AROUND 04Z.

BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY IS CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID STORM MOTION. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING EXTENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ABOVE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY
WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD POSE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.


..KERR.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
38998746 39128685 39078571 39048465 38848358 38078308
37388387 37258489 37388595 37438671 37598793 38038772
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110227
SPC MCD 110227
MTZ000-110430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110227Z - 110430Z
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER CENTRAL MT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN MT AT
02Z. SELY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 15 TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN MT AND NERN WY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS
MID LEVELS COOL WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN
N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE OF GREATER CONCERN. IF ORGANIZED MCS
CAN FORM...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL THREAT...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.


..JEWELL.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GGW...BYZ...TFX...
45261081 46601096 48211097 48681094 48720768 47260707
45390823
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110238
SPC MCD 110238
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-110445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...N CNTRL TX...WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110238Z - 110445Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...SUPPORTED
PRIMARILY BY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL/MESO HIGH IS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY NOW PROGRESSING
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 44. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING/VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EASTWARD ACCELERATION BETWEEN NOW AND
06Z...ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM/
MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT.


..KERR.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
33789749 34479695 35419609 36319565 36689498 36559391
35509362 34099435 33509511 33239632 33039755 33159839
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110620
SPC MCD 110620
TXZ000-110815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN TX
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 110620Z - 110815Z
WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM OK TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NRN TX COUNTIES THIS MORNING. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ARCHER...JACK AND DENTON COUNTIES WHERE SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS COUPLED WITH 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW TO LOCALLY ENHANCE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE
ELEVATED CAPE OF 3300 J/KG ABOVE 3C CAP AT AROUND 830 MB SUPPORTING
OCCURRENCE OF LARGE HAIL. WNWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
SUPPORTS MCS MOTION VECTORS FAVORABLE FOR BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING OF
CELLS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.


..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...
31699697 31909768 32439887 33189904 33869882 33869844
33549724 33189638 33009499 32349445 31529500
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110648
SPC MCD 110648
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-110945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AND WRN AR...EXTREME ERN AR...NERN
TX...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 110648Z - 110945Z
WE ARE MONITORING AREAS OF WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO MCSS OVER MO/IL AND OK THAT LOOK TO BE
GENERATING INTO A THIRD MCS OVER AR. COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY FORMING FROM SERN MO WSWWD INTO NWRN AR...AND BOWING SQUALL
LINE OVER ERN OK/NERN TX WILL MERGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
OVER NWRN AR. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION FILLING IN OVER S
CENTRAL MO AS WELL AS MERGING OF SQUALL LINE WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER W CENTRAL AR. PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA INDICATES FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL CELLS INCREASING ALREADY PRESENT
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.80.
THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS SOME HAIL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
32799429 33049487 34349488 36049482 37059271 37229106
36719055 35689104 35599208 34379266 33309273
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110953
SPC MCD 110953
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN AND NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 110953Z - 111230Z
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS OF ERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WEATHER.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS NERN OK/WRN AR. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
INDEPENDENCE...WOODRUFF AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN AR JUST AHEAD OF
ADVANCING OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST SSE HRO TO
45 N OF HOT TO 25 SSE HOT. ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO AREA WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500 - 2000 J/KG WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.


..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...
33279256 34459210 35529230 36069221 36729059 36548955
35788935 34838974 33909033 33169123
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111254
SPC MCD 111254
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-111500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR AND W CENTRAL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 111254Z - 111500Z
BOW SEGMENT WHICH EARLIER WAS MOVING THROUGH SWRN AR HAS WEAKENED
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VORTICITY LOBE IS BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT
APPROACHES A SLIGHTLY MODERATE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS MID LAPSE RATES JUST
BELOW 7C/KM WHICH SHOULD STEEPEN WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
32979213 32969300 32959369 33049397 33639397 34189381
34149210 34159093 34099026 33469040 32989043 32999167
NNNN