FXUS63 KMQT 100154
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
955 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

UPDATES CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING PCPN INTO AREA AND COVERAGE. 

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW VORT MAX OF INTEREST MOVG ESE 
ACROSS CNTRL MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS OVER ONTARIO AND WRN 
QUEBEC BRINGING AN ACYC ERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPR 
MI. A TROF EXTENDED FROM ERN ND THRU CNTRL IA WHILE A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDED FROM THE MO/IA BDR INTO CNTRL IN. VIS/IR IMAGERY INDICATED 
STRONGEST CONVECTION/COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF WMFNT 
FROM IA-IL-IN AND OH WHERE DWPNTS IN 70S WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF 
STORMS OVER SRN MN AHD OF VORT MAX TRACK. 

RADAR LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF PCPN RETURNS MOVG INTO WRN U.P 
ATTM...ALTHOUGH DRY LLVL ERLY FLOW PREVENTING MUCH IF NOT ALL OF 
THIS REACHING GROUND. NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF RAIN BACK OVER 
ERN MN AND NW WI IN AREA OF VIGOROUS 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV NORTH AND EAST OF VORT TRACK. 
18Z AND 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FORCING MOVG INTO WRN AND CNTRL 
PORTIONS OF U.P AS VORT TRACKS INTO NCNTRL WI OVRNGT. MODELS... 
PARTICULARLY ETA AND RUC...ALSO SHOW DRY ERLY FLOW SLIGHTLY DELAYING 
ARRIVAL OF RAIN FOR CWA DESPITE BETTER DYNAMICS OVRNGT...MAY NEED TO 
CONSIDER THIS GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MAYBE BACK UP TIMING A 
COUPLE OF HRS FOR EAST HALF COUNTIES. 

MIN TEMPS GENLY ON TARGET SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED THERE. 

.MQT...NONE.

VOSS

REST OF AFDMQT FROM AFT PKG:      

THU INTO THU NIGHT...AS UPR LVL JET ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE NW AND 
AND HELPS SHARPEN THE MID LVL TROF THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOW 
AND LIFT MORE TO THE NE TOWARD NRN LWR BY 00Z/FRI. THIS WILL KEEP 
UPR MI IN FAVORABLE POSITION FOR RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH 
COMMA-HEAD AND COLD CONVEYOR DYNAMICS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE 
RAINFALL. WITH MID LVL VORT TO BRUSH NEAR SE UPR MI...MENTION OF 
ISOLD TSRA RETAINED GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER SE ND AND WRN MN. 
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF PCPN SHOULD BE STABLE RATHER THAN 
CONVECTIVE...PER 06Z ETA. BACKING E TO NE WINDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP 
TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL NORMALS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. 06Z GFS/ETA 
AND UKMET TIMING LOOKED MORE REASONABLE THAN MM5 WHICH SHOWS DEPICTS 
SIGNFICANTLY DEEPER MID LVL LOW WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOWER EXIT OF 
SFC LO AND COLD-CONVEYOR PCPN. NEVERTHELESS...SOME RAIN EXPECTED TO 
LINGER INTO THE EVENING CNTRL/EAST BEFORE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

FRI...H7/H5 COLD POOL LINGERS ALONG WITH MOIST LOW LVL CYCLONIC FLOW 
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF SCT -SHRA WITH THE 
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EAST IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE 
AND THE MID LVL LOW. 

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MID LVL SHRTWV RDG AND WEAK SFC RDG BUILD INTO 
THE WRN LAKES. WHILE WEAK SHRTWVS IN NW FLOW MIGHT SUPPORT SOME 
PCPN...PER 06Z GFS AND 12Z NOGAPS...DRY FCST MAINTAINED FOR NOW IN 
LINE WITH UKMET/CANADIAN WITH MINIMAL LOW LVL MOISTURE AVBL.

SUN-WED...EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN SUN WITH SW FLOW AND 
INSTABILITY BENEATH H5 TEMPS NEAR -16C FOR POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON 
CONVECTION...MAINLY NEAR LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WEAK SHRTWVS IN WNW 
FLOW MAY ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. NEXT 
WEEK...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL OR 
EVEN WSW MID UPR LVL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET 
ARE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH ERN NOAM TROF. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...ZONAL 
PATTERN WITH SHRTWVS OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH 
SUGGEST SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST FOR MON/TUE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH 
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES BY WED...HAVE LEFT PERIOD DRY WITH POSSIBILITY 
OF STRONGER FRONT AND DRYING INTO THE WRN LAKES...PER 00Z/06Z GFS 
AND HPC PROGS.  

JLB