FXUS64 KOUN 100147
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS 
POINT...BUT WILL REFOCUS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN 
OKLAHOMA FOR THIS EVENING AND DROP POPS BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTH. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS...SKIES AND TEMPS. 
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 

30

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147 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

WELL DEFINED S/W TROF EVIDENT IN 12Z UA DATA OVER NEW MEXICO APPEARS 
TO BE AMPLIFYING PER BAND 10 WV IMAGERY FROM RAMSDIS OVER FAR WTEX 
ATTM. PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW INCREASING OVER NW OK..AND SFC WINDS 
HAVE BACKED 40-60 DEGREES IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS OVR SW OK.  AS 
OF YET..SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS NOT WORKED BACK 
NWWD..BUT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS OVER MUCH OF SW OK/NW TX AS WINDS CONT TO 
BACK/INCREASE.  FIRST ATTEMPT AT SUSTAINED BL BASED CONVECTION 
APPEARS TO HAVE FAILED FOR THE MOMENT TO THE WEST OF KABI..BUT 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL VELOCITIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 
RAPID SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER CONCERN FOR 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS 
EVENING ON THE HI PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EAST/SOUTEAST ALONG AND 
NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED 
ACROSS NRN OK OR SRN KS.

SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA RATHER QUICKLY ON 
SATURDAY..AND SHUD RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ALTHOUGH 
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO MIX OUT IN THE SE ZONES..POTENTIAL 
FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITHIN THE BOUNDS OF OUR 
CWA.  DEEP MOISTURE SHUD FINALLY GET PUSHED SWD INTO TEXAS IN WAKE 
OF THIS SYSTEM..GIVING A 36-48 HR BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
HOWEVER..MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO LEAK BACK NWD ENUF LATE MONDAY TO 
ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVR NW/W TEXAS.  

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT A PERIOD OF WNW FLOW 
ALOFT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENT/SRN PLAINS MID WEEK IN 
WAKE OF STRONG GREAT LAKES SYSTEM..AND BEFORE WEST COAST TROF 
RELOADS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE 
TUE/WED AS INSTABILITY AXIS BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN A BIT 
FARTHER NORTH BENEATH AXIS OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. IF NRLY 
COMPONENT TO MID LEVEL FLOW DOES DEVELOP..PATTERN WILL BECOME 
FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING SVR MCS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HI 
PLAINS SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
 MILLER

OKC   66  83  50  78 /  40  20  10   0
HBR   58  84  46  80 /  40  10  10  10
SPS   67  90  53  82 /  40  20  10  10
GAG   49  75  39  77 /  30  10  10   0
PNC   67  81  48  75 /  40  20  10   0
DUA   70  88  57  83 /  40  30  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.