000
FXUS63 KILX 160831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009
MAJOR GAP IN THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. UPPER VORT MAX SWIRLING ON WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY PUSHING ACROSS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...PRODUCING LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. RADAR
RETURNS ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW PROMISE FOR SOME VERY SCATTERED
MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE TIME OF THE FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHER THAN
THIS ISSUE... THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE FRONT PASSAGE
WED/WED NIGHT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. USING A BLEND OF
NAM/GFS THROUGH DAY 5. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE GRIDS
ON THIS RUN.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
VORT ON WV IMAGERY HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RADAR RETURNS...WILL BE ADDING SOME SCT POPS IN
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. NOT SURE HOW LONG AFTER NOON IT WILL
LAST...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.
HIGHS TEMPERED CONSIDERABLY TODAY BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW REALLY
STARTS TO KICK IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING ON TUES WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE KEPT GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FROPA ON WED AND WED NIGHT WILL BRING THE RAIN...AND THUNDER TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE
TO BUILD WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS FILTER IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S
WED...AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DIGS IN...PUSHING COOLER TEMPS IN FOR
THU AND FRI.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION PROVIDING GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AND PRODUCE A LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$