Water Supply Seasonal Natural Volume Forecasts

(JDAO3) COLUMBIA - JOHN DAY DAM

The Seasonal Natural Volume Water Supply forecast is issued weekly. Forecasts are based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) modeling system. They utilize current simulated basin conditions and apply climatological future temperature and precipitation inputs. Statistical analysis is performed on the many hydrologic ensembles to produce the forecast. "Natural" assumes no regulation or diversions take place above the forecast point.

COLUMBIA - JOHN DAY DAM (JDAO3) ESP Forecasts for WY 2009
ESP Natural Volume Forecasts   Based On ESP Run: 2009-03-09
Forecast Period	ESP Forecasts for Forecast Period (KAF)
	90 % Exceedance Probability	70 % Exceedance Probability	50 % Exceedance Probability	30 % Exceedance Probability	10 % Exceedance Probability	Average Volume (KAF)
4/1/2009-9/30/2009	78505.16	84302.32	88669.56 (81 %)	90539.89	97514.42	109446.82
4/1/2009-7/31/2009	64913.76	69677.51	72298.57 (80 %)	75235.16	82389.43	90881.95
3/9/2009-9/30/2009	83160.77	89036.29	93214.14 (80 %)	95318.58	103002.41	116677.90
3/9/2009-7/31/2009	69569.37	74318.00	77000.55 (80 %)	80235.19	87946.26	96068.91

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Plots and Forecasts displayed on this page do not reflect
uncertainties associated with model and data errors.

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US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) 5241 NE 122nd Avenue Portland, Oregon 97230-1089 Telephone: 503-326-7401 Last Modified: March 16, 2009

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