000
FXUS61 KALY 161044
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION BUT IT WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. ANOTHER DRY DAY IN TAP WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...+5 TO 10 DEGREES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTENT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDED A 20 POP TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD POSSIBLY REACH INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY ON TAP. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER FALLING TUESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BECOME STEADY LATE AT NIGHT AND MAY EVEN BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE
SUNRISE.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLAT OVER REGION WEDNESDAY AND PARALLELS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAKING IT A SLOW MOVER INITIALLY. THE
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO MOVEMENT
OF COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS
IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION
INTO FORECAST AREA. TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH. KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY DRY...DID INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
LATE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BULK OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE
READING POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD...WITH A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH...LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER
20S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S AND LOWS MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE
MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. WE MOSTLY USED A 50/50
BLEND BETWEEN HPC AND GMOS FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS PERIOD. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...WENT WITH INCREMENTS
WITH RAIN/MIX/SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WENT UP AND DOWN WITH
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIMES AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES WERE CLEAR AND WINDS WERE CALM OR NEARLY SO AROUND
DAYBREAK TODAY. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBLITY DUE TO
LIGHT RADIATION FOG IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
CONNECTICUT...AND KPOU BRIEFLY DETERIORATED TO IFR WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ALBANY AREA SOUTH. TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE OVERCAST SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...BUT CLOUD
BASES SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...OUR
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY LINGERING ON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IN A BAND EXTENDING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TO THE
UPPER 30S...WHICH WILL ENABLE SOME MELTING OF LEFTOVER SNOW
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED OFF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S...SO THE COMBINATION
OF MELTING SNOW AND RAIN WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SOME SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...
THERE WILL BE LESS RAINFALL AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW TO MELT.
ICE MAY STILL BE A CONCERN ON SOME OF THE RIVERS INCLUDING
THE MOOSE RIVER IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...THE HUDSON
RIVER UPSTREAM OF HADLEY...THE EAST CANADA CREEK...AND THE
SACANDAGA RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE. MOST
OF THE ICE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER HAS MOVED DOWNSTREAM OF
SCHENECTADY AND WHATEVER REMAINS UPSTREAM OF CRESCENT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...RCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 160755
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION BUT IT WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. ANOTHER DRY DAY IN TAP WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...+5 TO 10 DEGREES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTENT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDED A 20 POP TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD POSSIBLY REACH INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY ON TAP. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER FALLING TUESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BECOME STEADY LATE AT NIGHT AND MAY EVEN BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE
SUNRISE.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLAT OVER REGION WEDNESDAY AND PARALLELS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAKING IT A SLOW MOVER INITIALLY. THE
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO MOVEMENT
OF COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS
IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION
INTO FORECAST AREA. TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH. KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY DRY...DID INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
LATE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BULK OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE
READING POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD...WITH A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH...LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER
20S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S AND LOWS MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE
MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. WE MOSTLY USED A 50/50
BLEND BETWEEN HPC AND GMOS FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS PERIOD. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...WENT WITH INCREMENTS
WITH RAIN/MIX/SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WENT UP AND DOWN WITH
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIMES AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH CALM WINDS.
KPOU WAS ALREADY MVFR WITH LIGHT RADIATION FOG AND TEMPERATURES
WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE DEW POINT AT KGFL AND KAQW AS
WELL AS KPOU. THE VISIBILITY AT KPOU MAY BRIEFLY BECOME IFR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND KGFL WILL PROBABLY BECOME MVFR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD AT KALB THAT FOG IS
UNLIKELY. ALSO...UNLIKE KGFL AND KPOU...KALB IS NOT IN A
DEPRESSION BUT IS ABOUT 50 FT ABOVE THE MOHAWK RIVER TO THE
NORTH...SO DRAINAGE FOG WOULD OCCUR OVER THE RIVER TO THE NORTH OF
THE AIRPORT.
AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR NORTH
EAST TODAY. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE FEW-SCT NORTH AND
BKN-OVC SOUTH. THEY WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SOMEWHAT DURING
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AT KPOU AND
ABOVE 15000 FEET AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...OUR
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY LINGERING ON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IN A BAND EXTENDING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TO THE
UPPER 30S...WHICH WILL ENABLE SOME MELTING OF LEFTOVER SNOW
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED OFF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S...SO THE COMBINATION
OF MELTING SNOW AND RAIN WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SOME SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...
THERE WILL BE LESS RAINFALL AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW TO MELT.
ICE MAY STILL BE A CONCERN ON SOME OF THE RIVERS INCLUDING
THE MOOSE RIVER IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...THE HUDSON
RIVER UPSTREAM OF HADLEY...THE EAST CANADA CREEK...AND THE
SACANDAGA RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE. MOST
OF THE ICE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER HAS MOVED DOWNSTREAM OF
SCHENECTADY AND WHATEVER REMAINS UPSTREAM OF CRESCENT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...RCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 160545
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM
QUEBEC TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE BACK DOOR CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM NE TO SW
ACRS FA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE
REGION BEHIND IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE TEMPS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AT KGFL DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. HIGH
TEMPS ON MON WILL BE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS TEMPS AT LOWER
LEVELS INCLUDING 925 MB AND 1000 MB DROP BY 2-3 C. SKIES LOOK TO
BE MAINLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA OFF
CAROLINA COAST. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA.
EXPECT LOWS MON NGHT TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS
OFF EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO START TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH IN TIMING OF SHOWERS...WHICH LOOK TO IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AS WAA TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. NAM IS SO SLOW
AT BRINGING PCPN INTO FA THAT A DRY FORECAST WOULD BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS HAS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH LATE TUE NGHT INTO WED MRNG AND THEN DRY WED
AFT...WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING PCPN IN UNTIL WED. WILL GENERALLY
COMPROMISE BTWN GFS AND ECMWF WITH CHC POPS NW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SE LATE TUE NGHT AND LOW CHC POPS ON WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR PCPN TO RCH SE PTN OF FA TEMPS MAY WARM TO AT OR
ABOVE 60 WED AFT. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 FROM
SRN SARATOGA COUNTY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC...TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...WILL
IMPACT THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS/CAN
GGEM INDICATED THE FRONT MAY BE ANAFRONTAL WITH THE WIND SHIFT WELL
AHEAD OF THE CONTINUOUS PCPN/CLOUD BAND. THE BETTER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALSO LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z/THU. WE KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERED THEM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THU PM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WE TRANSITIONED ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS
WED NIGHT/THU BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS GETTING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S....WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST SWINGING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH THE
PCPN ENDING BY THE PM OVER THE SRN TIER.
A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO 15C. A MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A
COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING EAST FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING A SHADE BELOW NORMAL. THE 06Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES HAVE H850 TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT...AS THE SFC RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WAS A LARGE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE HPC AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. WE TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND AND LOWERED THE
MILDER GMOS VALUES 5-7 DEGREES WITH A SLOWER TIMING ON THE FROPA
UNTIL SUNDAY PM. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA/SHSN
IN THE GRIDDED FCST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
WITH PCPN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH CALM WINDS.
KPOU WAS ALREADY MVFR WITH LIGHT RADIATION FOG AND TEMPERATURES
WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE DEW POINT AT KGFL AND KAQW AS
WELL AS KPOU. THE VISIBILITY AT KPOU MAY BRIEFLY BECOME IFR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND KGFL WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MVFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD AT KALB
THAT FOG IS UNLIKELY. ALSO...UNLIKE KGFL AND KPOU...KALB IS
NOT IN A DEPRESSION BUT IS ABOUT 50 FT ABOVE THE MOHAWK RIVER
TO THE NORTH...SO DRAINAGE FOG WOULD OCCUR OVER THE RIVER TO
THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT.
AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR NORTH
EAST TODAY. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE FEW-SCT NORTH AND
BKN-OVC SOUTH. THEY WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SOMEWHAT DURING
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AT KPOU AND
ABOVE 15000 FEET AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT...EXCEPT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE
MELT ON THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA.
OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE
AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KALY 152324
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM QUEBEC ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE BACK DOOR CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM NE TO SW
ACRS FA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE
REGION BEHIND IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE TEMPS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AT KGFL DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. HIGH
TEMPS ON MON WILL BE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS TEMPS AT LOWER
LEVELS INCLUDING 925 MB AND 1000 MB DROP BY 2-3 C. SKIES LOOK TO
BE MAINLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA OFF
CAROLINA COAST. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA.
EXPECT LOWS MON NGHT TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS
OFF EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO START TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH IN TIMING OF SHOWERS...WHICH LOOK TO IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AS WAA TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. NAM IS SO SLOW
AT BRINGING PCPN INTO FA THAT A DRY FORECAST WOULD BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS HAS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH LATE TUE NGHT INTO WED MRNG AND THEN DRY WED
AFT...WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING PCPN IN UNTIL WED. WILL GENERALLY
COMPROMISE BTWN GFS AND ECMWF WITH CHC POPS NW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SE LATE TUE NGHT AND LOW CHC POPS ON WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR PCPN TO RCH SE PTN OF FA TEMPS MAY WARM TO AT OR
ABOVE 60 WED AFT. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 FROM
SRN SARATOGA COUNTY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC...TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...WILL
IMPACT THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS/CAN
GGEM INDICATED THE FRONT MAY BE ANAFRONTAL WITH THE WIND SHIFT WELL
AHEAD OF THE CONTINUOUS PCPN/CLOUD BAND. THE BETTER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALSO LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z/THU. WE KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERED THEM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THU PM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WE TRANSITIONED ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS
WED NIGHT/THU BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS GETTING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S....WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST SWINGING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH THE
PCPN ENDING BY THE PM OVER THE SRN TIER.
A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO 15C. A MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A
COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING EAST FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING A SHADE BELOW NORMAL. THE 06Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES HAVE H850 TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT...AS THE SFC RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WAS A LARGE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE HPC AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. WE TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND AND LOWERED THE
MILDER GMOS VALUES 5-7 DEGREES WITH A SLOWER TIMING ON THE FROPA
UNTIL SUNDAY PM. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA/SHSN
IN THE GRIDDED FCST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
WITH PCPN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY P6SM SKC EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
MONDAY...THEN SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER KPOU AND
KALB. PATCHY RADIATIONAL MVFR MIST MAY BE POSSIBLE 09-12Z NEAR KGFL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT...EXCEPT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE
MELT ON THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA.
OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE
AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KALY 151943
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM QUEBEC ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE BACK DOOR CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM NE TO SW
ACRS FA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE
REGION BEHIND IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE TEMPS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AT KGFL DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. HIGH
TEMPS ON MON WILL BE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS TEMPS AT LOWER
LEVELS INCLUDING 925 MB AND 1000 MB DROP BY 2-3 C. SKIES LOOK TO
BE MAINLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA OFF
CAROLINA COAST. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA.
EXPECT LOWS MON NGHT TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS
OFF EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO START TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH IN TIMING OF SHOWERS...WHICH LOOK TO IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AS WAA TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. NAM IS SO SLOW
AT BRINGING PCPN INTO FA THAT A DRY FORECAST WOULD BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS HAS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH LATE TUE NGHT INTO WED MRNG AND THEN DRY WED
AFT...WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING PCPN IN UNTIL WED. WILL GENERALLY
COMPROMISE BTWN GFS AND ECMWF WITH CHC POPS NW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SE LATE TUE NGHT AND LOW CHC POPS ON WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR PCPN TO RCH SE PTN OF FA TEMPS MAY WARM TO AT OR
ABOVE 60 WED AFT. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 FROM
SRN SARATOGA COUNTY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC...TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...WILL
IMPACT THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS/CAN
GGEM INDICATED THE FRONT MAY BE ANAFRONTAL WITH THE WIND SHIFT WELL
AHEAD OF THE CONTINUOUS PCPN/CLOUD BAND. THE BETTER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALSO LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z/THU. WE KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERED THEM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THU PM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WE TRANSITIONED ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS
WED NIGHT/THU BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS GETTING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S....WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST SWINGING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH THE
PCPN ENDING BY THE PM OVER THE SRN TIER.
A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO 15C. A MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A
COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING EAST FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING A SHADE BELOW NORMAL. THE 06Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES HAVE H850 TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRI. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT...AS THE SFC RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WAS A LARGE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE HPC AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. WE TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND AND LOWERED THE
MILDER GMOS VALUES 5-7 DEGREES WITH A SLOWER TIMING ON THE FROPA
UNTIL SUNDAY PM. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA/SHSN
IN THE GRIDDED FCST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
WITH PCPN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SKC EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MVFR MIST MAY BE POSSIBLE 09-12Z NEAR KGFL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO DRY AIR MASS...WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND CALM AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT...EXCEPT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE
MELT ON THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA.
OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE
AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KALY 151730
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF MAINE ON TUESDAY
WITH CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
DOMINATING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE PICTURE
THIS MORNING JUST SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRAZING THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WE KEPT IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THERE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY NORTH.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH SOME U50S TO NEAR 60F READINGS FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. U40S TO
MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK
REGION TO M40S TO U40S DUE TO THE SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE THERE.
OUR LATEST HYD PRODUCT SHOWS 28 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT
PISECO...21 INCHES AT INDIAN LAKE...AND 20 INCHES AT NORTH CREEK.
THEREFORE...1 TO 2.5 FEET OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND IN THE
SRN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION SEGMENT...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED
UNDER THE STRONG MARCH SUN...AND RETREAT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
A DRY BACK DOOR CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN THE THICKNESS FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR...MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ON SFC
TEMPS...AND A WIND SHIFT. AIRMASS REMAINS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH
00UTC SHOWING T-TD SPREADS OFF THE DECK OF 20C...AND IT REMAINED
BONE DRY UP TO 250KFT. WITH FULL SUN MODELS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO
COOL AS USUAL PULL OF PVS DAY AND CLIMO HOLDS MAX TEMPS DOWN. WILL
GO ABV GUID A FEW DEGREES AND WOULD EXPECT READINGS TO PUSH 60 IN
HUD VLY FM ALB SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY SFC HIGH BEHIND CDFNT IS BUILDING S FM QUEBEC INTO NEWENG
WITH CA DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY IN AVA OVER IT. OTHER ISSUE MONDAY IS A RATHER SHARP
500 HPA SHORT WAVE PASSING FM OHIO VLY TO VA. AHEAD OF IT A SFC
LOW FORMS OFFSHORE...AND NORTH OF THAT LOW IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE HIGH IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING MOISTURE STARTS BACKING
UP FM THE PA/NY BORDER SOUTH. EARLIER RUNS BLED MUCH MORE OF THIS
MOISTURE N INTO SOUTHER NYS...BUT THE GEM/NAM/GFS ALL WHILE BRINGING
SOME INCRG CLOUDS TO RGN KEEP THE PCPN WELL SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND FLIPPED-FLOPPED WITH
NAM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE QUEBEC HIGH AND FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAYS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO TDY. MONDAY NIGHT
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT AT SFC
THE LOW IS RACING TWRD BERMUDA AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING DOWN THE
ENTIRE SEABOARD. SO FAIR CONDS WILL PERSIST AND ARE BEING SET UP
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE AS A RELATIVELY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL THE REGION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING...AND THE ALREADY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE
50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
WITH A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR OOZES SOUTH...A
SLOW TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN AREAS
AND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AS TRAILING UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN...OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...THURSDAY EVENING...COOLING SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND ALL AREAS SEE THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL
RAPIDLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SKC EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MVFR MIST MAY BE POSSIBLE 09-12Z NEAR KGFL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO DRY AIR MASS...WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND CALM AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGHT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 151429
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF MAINE ON TUESDAY
WITH CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
DOMINATING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE PICTURE
THIS MORNING JUST SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRAZING THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WE KEPT IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THERE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY NORTH.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH SOME U50S TO NEAR 60F READINGS FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. U40S TO
MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK
REGION TO M40S TO U40S DUE TO THE SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE THERE.
OUR LATEST HYD PRODUCT SHOWS 28 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT
PISECO...21 INCHES AT INDIAN LAKE...AND 20 INCHES AT NORTH CREEK.
THEREFORE...1 TO 2.5 FEET OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND IN THE
SRN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
...PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION SEGMENT...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED
UNDER THE STRONG MARCH SUN...AND RETREAT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
A DRY BACK DOOR CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN THE THICKNESS FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR...MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ON SFC
TEMPS...AND A WIND SHIFT. AIRMASS REMAINS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH
00UTC SHOWING T-TD SPREADS OFF THE DECK OF 20C...AND IT REMAINED
BONE DRY UP TO 250KFT. WITH FULL SUN MODELS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO
COOL AS USUAL PULL OF PVS DAY AND CLIMO HOLDS MAX TEMPS DOWN. WILL
GO ABV GUID A FEW DEGREES AND WOULD EXPECT READINGS TO PUSH 60 IN
HUD VLY FM ALB SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY SFC HIGH BEHIND CDFNT IS BUILDING S FM QUEBEC INTO NEWENG
WITH CA DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY IN AVA OVER IT. OTHER ISSUE MONDAY IS A RATHER SHARP
500 HPA SHORT WAVE PASSING FM OHIO VLY TO VA. AHEAD OF IT A SFC
LOW FORMS OFFSHORE...AND NORTH OF THAT LOW IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE HIGH IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING MOISTURE STARTS BACKING
UP FM THE PA/NY BORDER SOUTH. EARLIER RUNS BLED MUCH MORE OF THIS
MOISTURE N INTO SOUTHER NYS...BUT THE GEM/NAM/GFS ALL WHILE BRINGING
SOME INCRG CLOUDS TO RGN KEEP THE PCPN WELL SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND FLIPPED-FLOPPED WITH
NAM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE QUEBEC HIGH AND FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAYS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO TDY. MONDAY NIGHT
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT AT SFC
THE LOW IS RACING TWRD BERMUDA AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING DOWN THE
ENTIRE SEABOARD. SO FAIR CONDS WILL PERSIST AND ARE BEING SET UP
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE AS A RELATIVELY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL THE REGION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING...AND THE ALREADY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE
50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
WITH A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR OOZES SOUTH...A
SLOW TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN AREAS
AND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AS TRAILING UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN...OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...THURSDAY EVENING...COOLING SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND ALL AREAS SEE THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL
RAPIDLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN250.
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MVFR MIST MAY BE POSSIBLE 09-12Z NEAR KGFL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO DRY AIR MASS...WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS...AND NEAR CALM AT
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 151132
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL RETREAT
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COOLER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THEN SEATTLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO MID WEEK. IN AN
OTHERWISE FAIR PERIOD A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE JUST
SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED
UNDER THE STRONG MARCH SUN...AND RETREAT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
A DRY BACK DOOR CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN THE THICKNESS FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR...MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ON SFC TEMPS...AND
A WIND SHIFT. AIRMASS REMAINS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH 00UTC SHOWING
T-TD SPREADS OFF THE DECK OF 20C...AND IT REMAINED BONE DRY UP TO
250KFT. WITH FULL SUN MODELS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO COOL AS USUAL
PULL OF PVS DAY AND CLIMO HOLDS MAX TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO ABV GUID
A FEW DEGREES AND WOULD EXPECT READINGS TO PUSH 60 IN HUD VLY FM
ALB SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY SFC HIGH BEHIND CDFNT IS BUILDING S FM QUEBEC INTO NEWENG
WITH CA DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY IN AVA OVER IT. OTHER ISSUE MONDAY IS A RATHER SHARP
500 HPA SHORT WAVE PASSING FM OHIO VLY TO VA. AHEAD OF IT A SFC
LOW FORMS OFFSHORE...AND NORTH OF THAT LOW IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE HIGH IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING MOISTURE STARTS BACKING
UP FM THE PA/NY BORDER SOUTH. EARLIER RUNS BLED MUCH MORE OF THIS
MOISTURE N INTO SOUTHER NYS...BUT THE GEM/NAM/GFS ALL WHILE BRINGING
SOME INCRG CLOUDS TO RGN KEEP THE PCPN WELL SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND FLIPPED-FLOPPED WITH
NAM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE QUEBEC HIGH AND FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAYS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO TDY. MONDAY NIGHT
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT AT SFC
THE LOW IS RACING TWRD BERMUDA AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING DOWN THE
ENTIRE SEABOARD. SO FAIR CONDS WILL PERSIST AND ARE BEING SET UP
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE AS A RELATIVELY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL THE REGION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING...AND THE ALREADY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE
50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
WITH A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR OOZES SOUTH...A
SLOW TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN AREAS
AND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AS TRAILING UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN...OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...THURSDAY EVENING...COOLING SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND ALL AREAS SEE THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL
RAPIDLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN250.
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MVFR MIST MAY BE POSSIBLE 09-12Z NEAR KGFL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO DRY AIR MASS...WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS...AND NEAR CALM AT
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 150755
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL RETREAT
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COOLER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THEN SEATTLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO MID WEEK. IN AN
OTHERWISE FAIR PERIOD A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE JUST
SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED
UNDER THE STRONG MARCH SUN...AND RETREAT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
A DRY BACK DOOR CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN THE THICKNESS FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR...MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ON SFC TEMPS...AND
A WIND SHIFT. AIRMASS REMAINS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH 00UTC SHOWING
T-TD SPREADS OFF THE DECK OF 20C...AND IT REMAINED BONE DRY UP TO
250KFT. WITH FULL SUN MODELS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO COOL AS USUAL
PULL OF PVS DAY AND CLIMO HOLDS MAX TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO ABV GUID
A FEW DEGREES AND WOULD EXPECT READINGS TO PUSH 60 IN HUD VLY FM
ALB SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY SFC HIGH BEHIND CDFNT IS BUILDING S FM QUEBEC INTO NEWENG
WITH CA DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY IN AVA OVER IT. OTHER ISSUE MONDAY IS A RATHER SHARP
500 HPA SHORT WAVE PASSING FM OHIO VLY TO VA. AHEAD OF IT A SFC
LOW FORMS OFFSHORE...AND NORTH OF THAT LOW IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE HIGH IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING MOISTURE STARTS BACKING
UP FM THE PA/NY BORDER SOUTH. EARLIER RUNS BLED MUCH MORE OF THIS
MOISTURE N INTO SOUTHER NYS...BUT THE GEM/NAM/GFS ALL WHILE BRINGING
SOME INCRG CLOUDS TO RGN KEEP THE PCPN WELL SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND FLIPPED-FLOPPED WITH
NAM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE QUEBEC HIGH AND FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAYS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO TDY. MONDAY NIGHT
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT AT SFC
THE LOW IS RACING TWRD BERMUDA AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING DOWN THE
ENTIRE SEABOARD. SO FAIR CONDS WILL PERSIST AND ARE BEING SET UP
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE AS A RELATIVELY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO COOL THE REGION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING...AND THE ALREADY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE
50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
WITH A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIR OOZES SOUTH...A
SLOW TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN AREAS
AND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AS TRAILING UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN...OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...THURSDAY EVENING...COOLING SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND ALL AREAS SEE THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL
RAPIDLY AND GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN250. PATCHY
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE 09-12UTC MAINLY FAR NORTH. THERE CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE FROM EARLIER SNOW MELT...AND
LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SNOW COVER WILL BE ENOUGH.
ONCE AGAIN THE KENX VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING A LAYER FM 2-3KFT
OF ANOMALOUS 20-30KT SW WINDS WHICH SET UP RIGHT AFT SUNSET. THEY
ARE PROBLY NOT METEOROLOGIC...BUT MORE LIKELY ORNITHOLOGIC...AKA
GEESE..DUCKS AND MAYBE EARLY SONG BIRDS PUSHING NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 150537
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL RETREAT
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COOLER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THEN SEATTLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO MID WEEK. IN AN
OTHERWISE FAIR PERIOD A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE JUST
SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED
UNDER THE STRONG MARCH SUN...AND RETREAT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
A DRY BACK DOOR CDFNT. THE CDFNT WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN THE THICKNESS FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE COLD AIR...MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ON SFC TEMPS...AND
A WIND SHIFT. AIRMASS REMAINS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH 00UTC SHOWING
T-TD SPREADS OFF THE DECK OF 20C...AND IT REMAINED BONE DRY UP TO
250KFT. WITH FULL SUN MODELS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO COOL AS USUAL
PULL OF PVS DAY AND CLIMO HOLDS MAX TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO ABV GUID
A FEW DEGREES AND WOULD EXPECT READINGS TO PUSH 60 IN HUD VLY FM
ALB SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY MONDAY SFC HIGH BEHIND CDFNT IS BUILDING S FM QUEBEC INTO NEWENG
WITH CA DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF APPALACHIANS. SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY IN AVA OVER IT. OTHER ISSUE MONDAY IS A RATHER SHARP
500 HPA SHORT WAVE PASSING FM OHIO VLY TO VA. AHEAD OF IT A SFC
LOW FORMS OFFSHORE...AND NORTH OF THAT LOW IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE HIGH IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING MOISTURE STARTS BACKING
UP FM THE PA/NY BORDER SOUTH. EARLIER RUNS BLED MUCH MORE OF THIS
MOISTURE N INTO SOUTHER NYS...BUT THE GEM/NAM/GFS ALL WHILE BRINGING
SOME INCRG CLOUDS TO RGN KEEP THE PCPN WELL SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND FLIPPED-FLOPPED WITH
NAM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE QUEBEC HIGH AND FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAYS HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO TDY. MONDAY NIGHT
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT AT SFC
THE LOW IS RACING TWRD BERMUDA AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING DOWN THE
ENTIRE SEABOARD. SO FAIR CONDS WILL PERSIST AND ARE BEING SET UP
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO NORTH ACROSS
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW SOMETIME IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TEMPS HOLD
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...AND AM NOT EXPECTING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THE 12 UTC GFS
EVEN SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
RIDING IT NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LINGER SOME
RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOW NORTHERN AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...SO THIS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD...AND
ALLOW ANY REMAINING -SHSN/-SHRA TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
WHICH DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT AT SOME -SHSN TO THE
CWA. STILL...THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF DELAYS THIS STORM UNTIL SUNDAY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH
CHC POPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN250. PATCHY
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE 09-12UTC MAINLY FAR NORTH. THERE CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE FROM EARLIER SNOW MELT...AND
LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SNOW COVER WILL BE ENOUGH.
ONCE AGAIN THE KENX VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING A LAYER FM 2-3KFT
OF ANOMALOUS 20-30KT SW WINDS WHICH SET UP RIGHT AFT SUNSET. THEY
ARE PROBLY NOT METEOROLOGIC...BUT MORE LIKELY ORNITHOLOGIC...AKA
GEESE..DUCKS AND MAYBE EARLY SONG BIRDS PUSHING NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...JSQ
000
FXUS61 KALY 142321
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING...A
DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM
QUEBEC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY...AND SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONLY
IMPACT ON OUR AREA BEING TO PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...WILL THUS LEAVE OUT
OF THE GRIDS AS WITH DRY AIRMASS AND TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING
EXPECT THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG OPEN BODIES
OF WATER. EXPECT THAT LOW TEMPS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE FROM TEENS
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIST. ON
SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT A BACK DOOR CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM
NE TO SW ACRS FA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS
THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF FA ON TUESDAY.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPS ON MON ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON SUN. H8 TEMPS ONLY DROP FROM +1 C TO -2 C AT 00Z MON TO
0 C TO -3 C AT 00Z TUE...BUT TEMPS AT LOWER LEVELS INCLUDING 925
MB AND 1000 MB DROP BY 2-3 C. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY
EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW FROM TENNESSEE
VALLEY PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA OFF CAROLINA COAST.
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO NORTH ACROSS
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW SOMETIME IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TEMPS HOLD
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...AND AM NOT EXPECTING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THE 12 UTC GFS
EVEN SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
RIDING IT NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LINGER SOME
RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOW NORTHERN AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...SO THIS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD...AND
ALLOW ANY REMAINING -SHSN/-SHRA TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
WHICH DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT AT SOME -SHSN TO THE
CWA. STILL...THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF DELAYS THIS STORM UNTIL SUNDAY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH
CHC POPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR FOG STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
THE MAINLY CLEAR AMD CALM CONDITIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY FOG
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KALY 142017
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING...A
DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM
QUEBEC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY...AND SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONLY
IMPACT ON OUR AREA BEING TO PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...WILL THUS LEAVE OUT
OF THE GRIDS AS WITH DRY AIRMASS AND TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING
EXPECT THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG OPEN BODIES
OF WATER. EXPECT THAT LOW TEMPS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE FROM TEENS
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIST. ON
SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT A BACK DOOR CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM
NE TO SW ACRS FA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS
THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF FA ON TUESDAY.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPS ON MON ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON SUN. H8 TEMPS ONLY DROP FROM +1 C TO -2 C AT 00Z MON TO
0 C TO -3 C AT 00Z TUE...BUT TEMPS AT LOWER LEVELS INCLUDING 925
MB AND 1000 MB DROP BY 2-3 C. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY
EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW FROM TENNESSEE
VALLEY PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA OFF CAROLINA COAST.
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO NORTH ACROSS
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW SOMETIME IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TEMPS HOLD
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...AND AM NOT EXPECTING A
LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THE 12 UTC GFS
EVEN SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
RIDING IT NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LINGER SOME
RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOW NORTHERN AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...SO THIS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD...AND
ALLOW ANY REMAINING -SHSN/-SHRA TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
WHICH DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT AT SOME -SHSN TO THE
CWA. STILL...THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF DELAYS THIS STORM UNTIL SUNDAY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH
CHC POPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAINLY BE SCT EXCEPT BKN AT KPOU LATER
TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO INCLUDE IN TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR
WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MELT ON
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HSA. OVERALL...RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW
PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KALY 141800
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING...A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM QUEBEC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...AND
SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WE ADDED MORE CLOUDS SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO COVER THE CIRRUS DEPICTED ON THE
VISIBLE/IR LOOP DUE TO THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM STORM TRACK OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HOURLY TEMP TRENDS SHOW
OUR FCST AREA RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. BETTER
MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY...THAN YESTERDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION/S BELOW H800. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS
GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THE L50S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION TODAY. WE LOWERED MAXES TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. WE KEPT SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. ELSEWHERE..MID 3OS TO MID
40S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS/MTNS/SRN VT AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO ACTIVE JETS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH
IS STILL ROARING FM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS...AND THE
POLAR JET WHICH IS FROM WESTERN CANADA`S SOUTHERN TIER TO NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE FCA IS AT THE RECEIVING END OF SPLIT FLOW...THE
ACTIVE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE
VARIOUS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH
MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FCA. AT
THE SFC REGION REMAINS UNDER SPRAWLING HIGH FM THE MARITIMES TO
MIDWEST. OVER TIME TODAY THE HIGH SPLITS INTO TWO CELLS IN WAKE OF
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500HPA SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...AND A WEAK SFC TROF WILL SET UP FM SW PA TO MAINE. BUT
SHOULD BE A LOVELY MID MARCH DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS...MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT HIGH WILL BE ON
TOP OF RGN UNDER CLR SKIES AND IDEAL RADIATION CONDS. IT WILL BE
CHILLY BUT NOT AS COOL AS TNGT AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE
MODERATED BY INCREASING STRONG MARCH SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
PATCH FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUN...BUT NOT MUCH INDICATION IN
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG IN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER RGN SUNDAY...BUT 500HPA TROF ROTATING AROUND
LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC DRIVES A BACK DOOR CDFNT THROUGH THE RGN SUN
NT. MONDAY SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER QUEBEC IN THE ACVA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
500HPA RIDGE AND THEN SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH...CONTINUING OUR FAIR
WX. WHILE THE THICKNESS DOES NOT NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THIS CDFNT...THE
LOWER LAYERS COOL CONSIDERABLY...AND AFT ABV NORMALS TEMPS IN 40S/50S
FOR THE WEEKEND THEY WILL DROP BACK 5 TO 10 DEG MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THIS HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH...BUT A 500 HPA TROF PASSES FM THE OHIO VLY ACROSS THE
MID ATLC STATES. THE GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT
HARDLY IMPACTS US...THE NAM/GEM ALMOST CUTS IT OFF...AND DEEPEN A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WELL OFF NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH THE NAM/GEM
PULL ALLOT MORE CLOUDS INTO MID ATLC STATES AND NY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND SUGGESTS MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. GIVEN THIS WILL LEAN TWRD MORE CLOUDS INCRG LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SKIP THE PCPN ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE TIME
FRAME...LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND INTO
THE 50S TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AS DOES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
TIMING OF ONSET AND EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...BUT KEEPING GENERALLY AS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HINTS OF THE FRONT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...CONTINUING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...AS CHANCES FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND MORNING...AND
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CIRUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAINLY BE SCT EXCEPT BKN AT KPOU LATER
TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO INCLUDE IN TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR
WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 141544
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1144 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING...A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM QUEBEC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...AND
SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WE ADDED MORE CLOUDS SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO COVER THE CIRRUS DEPICTED ON THE
VISIBLE/IR LOOP DUE TO THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM STORM TRACK OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HOURLY TEMP TRENDS SHOW
OUR FCST AREA RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. BETTER
MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY...THAN YESTERDAY...WITH A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION/S BELOW H800. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS
GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THE L50S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION TODAY. WE LOWERED MAXES TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. WE KEPT SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. ELSEWHERE..MID 3OS TO MID
40S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS/MTNS/SRN VT AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY.
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO ACTIVE JETS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH
IS STILL ROARING FM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS...AND THE
POLAR JET WHICH IS FROM WESTERN CANADA`S SOUTHERN TIER TO NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE FCA IS AT THE RECEIVING END OF SPLIT FLOW...THE
ACTIVE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE
VARIOUS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH
MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FCA. AT
THE SFC REGION REMAINS UNDER SPRAWLING HIGH FM THE MARITIMES TO
MIDWEST. OVER TIME TODAY THE HIGH SPLITS INTO TWO CELLS IN WAKE OF
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500HPA SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...AND A WEAK SFC TROF WILL SET UP FM SW PA TO MAINE. BUT
SHOULD BE A LOVELY MID MARCH DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS...MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT HIGH WILL BE ON
TOP OF RGN UNDER CLR SKIES AND IDEAL RADIATION CONDS. IT WILL BE
CHILLY BUT NOT AS COOL AS TNGT AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE
MODERATED BY INCRNG STRONG MARCH SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
PATCH FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUN...BUT NOT MUCH INDICATION IN
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG IN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER RGN SUNDAY...BUT 500HPA TROF ROTATING AROUND
LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC DRIVES A BACK DOOR CDFNT THROUGH THE RGN SUN
NT. MONDAY SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER QUEBEC IN THE ACVA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
500HPA RIDGE AND THEN SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH...CONTINUING OUR FAIR
WX. WHILE THE THICKNESS DOES NOT NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THIS CDFNT...THE
LOWER LAYERS COOL CONSIDERABLY...AND AFT ABV NORMALS TEMPS IN 40S/50S
FOR THE WEEKEND THEY WILL DROP BACK 5 TO 10 DEG MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THIS HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH...BUT A 500 HPA TROF PASSES FM THE OHIO VLY ACROSS THE
MID ATLC STATES. THE GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT
HARDLY IMPACTS US...THE NAM/GEM ALMOST CUTS IT OFF...AND DEEPEN A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WELL OFF NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH THE NAM/GEM
PULL ALOT MORE CLOUDS INTO MID ATLC STATES AND NY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND SUGGESTS MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT PCN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. GIVEN THIS WILL LEAN TWRD MORE CLOUDS INCRG LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SKIP THE PCPN ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE TIME
FRAME...LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND INTO
THE 50S TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AS DOES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
TIMING OF ONSET AND EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...BUT KEEPING GENERALLY AS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HINTS OF THE FRONT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...CONTINUING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...AS CHANCES FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND MORNING...AND
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND
MVFR CONFS BRIEFLY AFT 09UTC. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.
OUTLOOK...SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 141048
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM QUEBEC. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BUILDING FROM QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY...AND SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO ACTIVE JETS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH IS
STILL ROARING FM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS...AND THE POLAR
JET WHICH IS FROM WESTERN CANADA`S SOUTHERN TIER TO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE FCA IS AT THE RECEIVING END OF SPLIT FLOW...THE ACTIVE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FCA. AT THE SFC REGION REMAINS
UNDER SPRAWLING HIGH FM THE MARITIMES TO MIDWEST. OVER TIME TODAY
THE HIGH SPLITS INTO TWO CELLS IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
500HPA SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND A WEAK SFC TROF
WILL SET UP FM SW PA TO MAINE. BUT SHOULD BE A LOVELY MID MARCH
DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS...MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT HIGH WILL BE ON TOP OF RGN UNDER CLR SKIES
AND IDEAL RADIATION CONDS. IT WILL BE CHILLY BUT NOT AS COOL AS
TNGT AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATED BY INCRNG STRONG MARCH
SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME PATCH FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
SUN...BUT NOT MUCH INDICATION IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY
PATCHY FOG IN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER RGN SUNDAY...BUT 500HPA TROF ROTATING AROUND
LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC DRIVES A BACK DOOR CDFNT THROUGH THE RGN SUN
NT. MONDAY SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER QUEBEC IN THE ACVA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
500HPA RIDGE AND THEN SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH...CONTINUING OUR FAIR
WX. WHILE THE THICKNESS DOES NOT NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THIS CDFNT...THE
LOWER LAYERS COOL CONSIDERABLY...AND AFT ABV NORMALS TEMPS IN 40S/50S
FOR THE WEEKEND THEY WILL DROP BACK 5 TO 10 DEG MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THIS HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH...BUT A 500 HPA TROF PASSES FM THE OHIO VLY ACROSS THE
MID ATLC STATES. THE GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT
HARDLY IMPACTS US...THE NAM/GEM ALMOST CUTS IT OFF...AND DEEPEN A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WELL OFF NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH THE NAM/GEM
PULL ALOT MORE CLOUDS INTO MID ATLC STATES AND NY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND SUGGESTS MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT PCN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. GIVEN THIS WILL LEAN TWRD MORE CLOUDS INCRG LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SKIP THE PCPN ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE TIME
FRAME...LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND INTO
THE 50S TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AS DOES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
TIMING OF ONSET AND EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...BUT KEEPING GENERALLY AS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HINTS OF THE FRONT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...CONTINUING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...AS CHANCES FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND MORNING...AND
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND
MVFR CONFS BRIEFLY AFT 09UTC. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.
OUTLOOK...SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 140744
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
344 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM QUEBEC. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BUILDING FROM QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...AND
SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO ACTIVE JETS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH IS
STILL ROARING FM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS...AND THE POLAR
JET WHICH IS FROM WESTERN CANADA`S SOUTHERN TIER TO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE FCA IS AT THE RECEIVING END OF SPLIT FLOW...THE ACTIVE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FCA. AT THE SFC REGION REMAINS
UNDER SPRAWLING HIGH FM THE MARITIMES TO MIDWEST. OVER TIME TODAY
THE HIGH SPLITS INTO TWO CELLS IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
500HPA SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND A WEAK SFC TROF
WILL SET UP FM SW PA TO MAINE. BUT SHOULD BE A LOVELY MID MARCH
DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS...MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT HIGH WILL BE ON TOP OF RGN UNDER CLR SKIES
AND IDEAL RADIATION CONDS. IT WILL BE CHILLY BUT NOT AS COOL AS
TNGT AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATED BY INCRNG STRONG MARCH
SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME PATCH FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
SUN...BUT NOT MUCH INDICATION IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY
PATCHY FOG IN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER RGN SUNDAY...BUT 500HPA TROF ROTATING AROUND
LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC DRIVES A BACK DOOR CDFNT THROUGH THE RGN SUN
NT. MONDAY SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER QUEBEC IN THE ACVA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
500HPA RIDGE AND THEN SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH...CONTINUING OUR FAIR
WX. WHILE THE THICKNESS DOES NOT NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THIS CDFNT...THE
LOWER LAYERS COOL CONSIDERABLY...AND AFT ABV NORMALS TEMPS IN 40S/50S
FOR THE WEEKEND THEY WILL DROP BACK 5 TO 10 DEG MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THIS HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH...BUT A 500 HPA TROF PASSES FM THE OHIO VLY ACROSS THE
MID ATLC STATES. THE GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT
HARDLY IMPACTS US...THE NAM/GEM ALMOST CUTS IT OFF...AND DEEPEN A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WELL OFF NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH THE NAM/GEM
PULL ALOT MORE CLOUDS INTO MID ATLC STATES AND NY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND SUGGESTS MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT PCN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. GIVEN THIS WILL LEAN TWRD MORE CLOUDS INCRG LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SKIP THE PCPN ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE TIME
FRAME...LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND INTO
THE 50S TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AS DOES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
TIMING OF ONSET AND EXIT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...BUT KEEPING GENERALLY AS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HINTS OF THE FRONT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...CONTINUING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...AS CHANCES FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND MORNING...AND
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...06Z/SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WSR88D VWP SHOWING 2K-
3KFT LAYER OF WINDS 210/20-35KTS AT KENX...BUT BASED ON MET
SITUATION AND OTHER RADARS THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF SOME
BIRD MIGRATION NORTH IN THE HUDSON FLYWAY. GUESS THE ROBINS ARE
STARTING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...IAA/RCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 140614
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
214 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM QUEBEC. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BUILDING FROM QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...AND
SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO ACTIVE JETS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH IS
STILL ROARING FM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS...AND THE POLAR
JET WHICH IS FROM WESTERN CANADA`S SOUTHERN TIER TO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE FCA IS AT THE RECEIVING END OF SPLIT FLOW...THE ACTIVE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FCA. AT THE SFC REGION REMAINS
UNDER SPRAWLING HIGH FM THE MARITIMES TO MIDWEST. OVER TIME TODAY
THE HIGH SPLITS INTO TWO CELLS IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
500HPA SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND A WEAK SFC TROF
WILL SET UP FM SW PA TO MAINE. BUT SHOULD BE A LOVELY MID MARCH
DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS...MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT HIGH WILL BE ON TOP OF RGN UNDER CLR SKIES
AND IDEAL RADIATION CONDS. IT WILL BE CHILLY BUT NOT AS COOL AS
TNGT AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATED BY INCRNG STRONG MARCH
SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME PATCH FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
SUN...BUT NOT MUCH INDICATION IN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY
PATCHY FOG IN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER RGN SUNDAY...BUT 500HPA TROF ROTATING AROUND
LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC DRIVES A BACK DOOR CDFNT THROUGH THE RGN SUN
NT. MONDAY SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER QUEBEC IN THE ACVA AHEAD OF A BUILDING
500HPA RIDGE AND THEN SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH...CONTINUING OUR FAIR
WX. WHILE THE THICKNESS DOES NOT NOT LOWER MUCH BEHIND THIS CDFNT...THE
LOWER LAYERS COOL CONSIDERABLY...AND AFT ABV NORMALS TEMPS IN 40S/50S
FOR THE WEEKEND THEY WILL DROP BACK 5 TO 10 DEG MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THIS HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH...BUT A 500 HPA TROF PASSES FM THE OHIO VLY ACROSS THE
MID ATLC STATES. THE GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT
HARDLY IMPACTS US...THE NAM/GEM ALMOST CUTS IT OFF...AND DEEPEN A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WELL OFF NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH THE NAM/GEM
PULL ALOT MORE CLOUDS INTO MID ATLC STATES AND NY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND SUGGESTS MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT PCN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. GIVEN THIS WILL LEAN TWRD MORE CLOUDS INCRG LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SKIP THE PCPN ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION AND WOULD KEEP US DRY. THE SPLIT JETSTREAM...WHICH
CONTINUES FROM THE EARLIER PERIODS...LOOKS TO KEEP ANY GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE SOUTH...AND ANY GOOD NORTHERN STREAMS STORMS
NORTH.
THE TAIL END OF A NORTHERN JETSTREAM STORM MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY...IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL
OUT CLOSE TO...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM
LOOKS TO CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THIS COULD MEAN A
FEW WAVES RIDING ALONG WITH FRONT WED INTO THU WITH SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...06Z/SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WSR88D VWP SHOWING 2K-
3KFT LAYER OF WINDS 210/20-35KTS AT KENX...BUT BASED ON MET
SITUATION AND OTHER RADARS THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF SOME
BIRD MIGRATION NORTH IN THE HUDSON FLYWAY. GUESS THE ROBINS ARE
STARTING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...IAA/RCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 140513
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
ORIGINATED FROM THE FRIGID PLAINS OF CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN IS SLOWLY MODERATING THE AIRMASS.
A BATCH OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE RESULT OF AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PRODUCING UPWARD MOTION
ALOFT. THIS JET STREAK WILL EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH LATER TONIGHT TAKING ANY AND ALL CIRRUS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING FROM ALBANY AND MOST PLACES
SOUTHWARD (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS).
EVEN WITH THE CIRRUS THIS EVENING...A LIGHT TO CALM WIND...LOW
DEW POINTS AND AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT ONCE MORE...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST
NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES LOCALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS OUTLYING AREAS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS MUCH THE OF DACKS
WHERE AN EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK REMAINS.
WE HAD AN INTERESTING WEATHER PHENOMENA HAPPENED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 TO
430 PM...WHAT IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A "CHINOOK ARCH" IN THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...NOTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN ALBANY AND
EXTREME EASTERN GREEN COUNTIES...EASTWARD TO THE TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES. STRONG WINDS (MORE THAN 80 KTS) AT AROUND THE 500
MB...COLLIDED WITH MORE "STABLE AIR" THE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA OF RISING
MOTION AND CIRRUS...THAT APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. THE
FEATURE DISSIPATED DUE TO AN ENHANCED JET STREAK MOVING BY TO THE
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST...OFFSHORE AND PRODUCE A MODEST SSW
FLOW OUR WAY ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO MODERATE TO
ABOUT -4C LOCALLY BY DAY/S END...AND WITH GOOD MIXING...TO NEARLY
850 MBS ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES...TOUCHING AROUND 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT GET WITH A WEAK WAVE...RIDING ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
FLOW...FAVORING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MORE "HIGH PRESSURE"
AS WELL AS THE 12Z UKMET/EUROPEAN SUPPORTING THE NAM...WE WILL LEAN
WITH THE DRIER NAM AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS WOULD WORK IN...THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
WHATEVER WAVE RIDES TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...H850
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 0C OVER ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH A FAIR
MIXING TO AS SIMILAR LEVEL AS THAT ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY/S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE DOWN IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUDINESS COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING QUITE AS HIGH. EITHER WAY...50S WILL BE THE THEME IN
MOST PLACES...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS FRONT LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH
NO MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MORE TYPICAL A
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY FALL. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUB-ARCTIC AIR WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND LIKELY KEEP THE DRY STREAK GOING. H850
TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT...BACK TO AROUND -6C AT ALBANY...SO LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WENT WITH BLEND OF THE MAV/MET THROUGHOUT...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF ALBANY SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WHICH WOULD PUT THE CAP ON FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION AND WOULD KEEP US DRY. THE SPLIT JETSTREAM...WHICH
CONTINUES FROM THE EARLIER PERIODS...LOOKS TO KEEP ANY GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE SOUTH...AND ANY GOOD NORTHERN STREAMS STORMS
NORTH.
THE TAIL END OF A NORTHERN JETSTREAM STORM MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY...IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL
OUT CLOSE TO...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM
LOOKS TO CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THIS COULD MEAN A
FEW WAVES RIDING ALONG WITH FRONT WED INTO THU WITH SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...06Z/SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WSR88D VWP SHOWING 2K-
3KFT LAYER OF WINDS 210/20-35KTS AT KENX...BUT BASED ON MET
SITUATION AND OTHER RADARS THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF SOME
BIRD MIGRATION NORTH IN THE HUDSON FLYWAY. GUESS THE ROBINS ARE
STARTING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...IAA/RCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 132337
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
ORIGINATED FROM THE FRIGID PLAINS OF CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN IS SLOWLY MODERATING THE AIRMASS.
A BATCH OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE RESULT OF AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PRODUCING UPWARD MOTION
ALOFT. THIS JET STREAK WILL EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH LATER TONIGHT TAKING ANY AND ALL CIRRUS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING FROM ALBANY AND MOST PLACES
SOUTHWARD (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS).
EVEN WITH THE CIRRUS THIS EVENING...A LIGHT TO CALM WIND...LOW
DEW POINTS AND AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT ONCE MORE...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST
NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES LOCALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS OUTLYING AREAS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS MUCH THE OF DACKS
WHERE AN EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK REMAINS.
WE HAD AN INTERESTING WEATHER PHENOMENA HAPPENED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 TO
430 PM...WHAT IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A "CHINOOK ARCH" IN THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...NOTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN ALBANY AND
EXTREME EASTERN GREEN COUNTIES...EASTWARD TO THE TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES. STRONG WINDS (MORE THAN 80 KTS) AT AROUND THE 500
MB...COLLIDED WITH MORE "STABLE AIR" THE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA OF RISING
MOTION AND CIRRUS...THAT APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. THE
FEATURE DISSIPATED DUE TO AN ENHANCED JET STREAK MOVING BY TO THE
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST...OFFSHORE AND PRODUCE A MODEST SSW
FLOW OUR WAY ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO MODERATE TO
ABOUT -4C LOCALLY BY DAY/S END...AND WITH GOOD MIXING...TO NEARLY
850 MBS ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES...TOUCHING AROUND 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT GET WITH A WEAK WAVE...RIDING ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
FLOW...FAVORING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MORE "HIGH PRESSURE"
AS WELL AS THE 12Z UKMET/EUROPEAN SUPPORTING THE NAM...WE WILL LEAN
WITH THE DRIER NAM AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS WOULD WORK IN...THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
WHATEVER WAVE RIDES TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...H850
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 0C OVER ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH A FAIR
MIXING TO AS SIMILAR LEVEL AS THAT ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY/S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE DOWN IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUDINESS COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING QUITE AS HIGH. EITHER WAY...50S WILL BE THE THEME IN
MOST PLACES...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS FRONT LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH
NO MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MORE TYPICAL A
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY FALL. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUB-ARCTIC AIR WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND LIKELY KEEP THE DRY STREAK GOING. H850
TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT...BACK TO AROUND -6C AT ALBANY...SO LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WENT WITH BLEND OF THE MAV/MET THROUGHOUT...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF ALBANY SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WHICH WOULD PUT THE CAP ON FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION AND WOULD KEEP US DRY. THE SPLIT JETSTREAM...WHICH
CONTINUES FROM THE EARLIER PERIODS...LOOKS TO KEEP ANY GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE SOUTH...AND ANY GOOD NORTHERN STREAMS STORMS
NORTH.
THE TAIL END OF A NORTHERN JETSTREAM STORM MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY...IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL
OUT CLOSE TO...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM
LOOKS TO CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THIS COULD MEAN A
FEW WAVES RIDING ALONG WITH FRONT WED INTO THU WITH SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW MELT. OVERALL...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WHERE THE ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
AN UPDATED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK/HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/IAA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...RCK/IAA
000
FXUS61 KALY 132056
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS
SOUTH OF ALBANY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE A DRY PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
ORIGINATED FROM THE FRIGID PLAINS OF CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN IS SLOWLY MODERATING THE AIRMASS.
A BATCH OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE RESULT OF AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK PRODUCING UPWARD MOTION
ALOFT. THIS JETSTREAK WILL EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH LATER TONIGHT TAKING ANY AND ALL CIRRUS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING FROM ALBANY AND MOST PLACES
SOUTHWARD (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS).
EVEN WITH THE CIRRUS THIS EVENING...A LIGHT TO CALM WIND...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT ONCE MORE...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST
NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES LOCALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS OUTLYING AREAS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS MUCH THE OF DACKS
WHERE AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK REMAINS.
WE HAD AN INTERESTING WEATHER PHENOMENA HAPPENED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 TO
430 PM...WHAT IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A "CHINOOK ARCH" IN THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...NOTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN ALBANY AND
EXTREME EASTERN GREEN COUNTIES...EASTWARD TO THE TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES. STRONG WINDS (MORE THAN 80 KTS) AT AROUND THE 500
MB...COLLIDED WITH MORE "STABLE AIR" THE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA OF RISING
MOTION AND CIRRUS...THAT APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. AS OF
THIS WRITING...THIS PROCESS APPEARED TO BE WEAKENING...PROBABLY DUE
TO AN ENHANCED JETSTREAK MOVING BY TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST...OFFSHORE AND PRODUCE A MODEST SSW
FLOW OUR WAY ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO MODERATE TO
ABOUT -4C LOCALLY BY DAY/S END...AND WITH GOOD MIXING...TO NEARLY
850 MBS ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES...TOUCHING AROUND 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT GET WITH A WEAK WAVE...RIDING ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
FLOW...FAVORING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MORE "HIGH PRESSURE"
AS WELL AS THE 12Z UKMET/EUROPEAN SUPPORTING THE NAM...WE WILL LEAN
WITH THE DRIER NAM AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS WOULD WORK IN...THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
WHATEVER WAVE RIDES TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...H850
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 0C OVER ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH A FAIR
MIXING TO AS SIMILAR LEVEL AS THAT ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY/S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE DOWN IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUDINESS COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING QUITE AS HIGH. EITHER WAY...50S WILL BE THE THEME IN
MOST PLACES...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS FRONT LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH
NO MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MORE TYPICAL A
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY FALL. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUB-ARCTIC AIR WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND LIKELY KEEP THE DRY STREAK GOING. H850
TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT...BACK TO AROUND -6C AT ALBANY...SO LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WENT WITH BLEND OF THE MAV/MET THROUGHOUT...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF ALBANY SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WHICH WOULD PUT THE CAP ON FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION AND WOULD KEEP US DRY. THE SPLIT JETSTREAM...WHICH CONTINUES
FROM THE EARLIER PERIODS...LOOKS TO KEEP ANY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
SOUTH...AND ANY GOOD NORTHERN STREAMS STORMS NORTH.
THE TAIL END OF A NORTHERN JETSTREAM STORM MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY...IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL
OUT CLOSE TO...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM
LOOKS TO CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THIS COULD MEAN A
FEW WAVES RIDING ALONG WITH FRONT WED INTO THU WITH SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVER
THE TAFS. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS DRY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT
ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/TUE...VFR...NO WX.
WED...MVFR....CIG...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA
AS THE LEVEL REMAINS RIGHT AROUND THE FLOOD STAGE OF 403 FEET. OTHER
RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN HIGH BUT BELOW FLOOD LEVEL.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE
EARLIEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING ON EVERY
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW MELT ACROSS OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR RUNOFF WILL LIKELY REFREEZE EACH AND
EVERY NIGHT AND BE MINOR.
THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL
A LITTLE OVER THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH WHERE
ALL ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL. ALSO...WE ISSUED AN
ESF (HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK) ON FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KGS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AMENDED TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL PARAGRAPH ABOUT AN APPARENT
"CHINOOK ARCH" WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ALBANY/GREENE
COUNTIES.
000
FXUS61 KALY 131946
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS
SOUTH OF ALBANY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE A DRY PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
ORIGINATED FROM THE FRIGID PLAINS OF CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN IS SLOWLY MODERATING THE AIRMASS.
A BATCH OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE RESULT OF AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK PRODUCING UPWARD MOTION
ALOFT. THIS JETSTREAK WILL EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH LATER TONIGHT TAKING ANY AND ALL CIRRUS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING FROM ALBANY AND MOST PLACES
SOUTHWARD (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS).
EVEN WITH THE CIRRUS THIS EVENING...A LIGHT TO CALM WIND...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT ONCE MORE...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST
NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES LOCALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS OUTLYING AREAS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS MUCH THE OF DACKS
WHERE AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK REMAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST...OFFSHORE AND PRODUCE A MODEST SSW
FLOW OUR WAY ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO MODERATE TO
ABOUT -4C LOCALLY BY DAY/S END...AND WITH GOOD MIXING...TO NEARLY
850 MBS ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES...TOUCHING AROUND 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT GET WITH A WEAK WAVE...RIDING ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
FLOW...FAVORING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MORE "HIGH PRESSURE"
AS WELL AS THE 12Z UKMET/EUROPEAN SUPPORTING THE NAM...WE WILL LEAN
WITH THE DRIER NAM AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS WOULD WORK IN...THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
WHATEVER WAVE RIDES TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...H850
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 0C OVER ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH A FAIR
MIXING TO AS SIMILAR LEVEL AS THAT ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY/S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE DOWN IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUDINESS COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING QUITE AS HIGH. EITHER WAY...50S WILL BE THE THEME IN
MOST PLACES...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS FRONT LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY WITH
NO MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...MORE TYPICAL A
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY FALL. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUB-ARCTIC AIR WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND LIKELY KEEP THE DRY STREAK GOING. H850
TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT...BACK TO AROUND -6C AT ALBANY...SO LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WENT WITH BLEND OF THE MAV/MET THROUGHOUT...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF ALBANY SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WHICH WOULD PUT THE CAP ON FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO SLIP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION AND WOULD KEEP US DRY. THE SPLIT JETSTREAM...WHICH CONTINUES
FROM THE EARLIER PERIODS...LOOKS TO KEEP ANY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
SOUTH...AND ANY GOOD NORTHERN STREAMS STORMS NORTH.
THE TAIL END OF A NORTHERN JETSTREAM STORM MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY...IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL
OUT CLOSE TO...OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM
LOOKS TO CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THIS COULD MEAN A
FEW WAVES RIDING ALONG WITH FRONT WED INTO THU WITH SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVER
THE TAFS. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS DRY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT
ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/TUE...VFR...NO WX.
WED...MVFR....CIG...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA
AS THE LEVEL REMAINS RIGHT AROUND THE FLOOD STAGE OF 403 FEET. OTHER
RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN HIGH BUT BELOW FLOOD LEVEL.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE
EARLIEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING ON EVERY
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW MELT ACROSS OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR RUNOFF WILL LIKELY REFREEZE EACH AND
EVERY NIGHT AND BE MINOR.
THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL
A LITTLE OVER THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH WHERE
ALL ICE AND MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL. ALSO...WE ISSUED AN
ESF (HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK) ON FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KGS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
000
FXUS61 KALY 131640
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY...AND MODERATING TO
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN POSSIBLE BY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/TN VALLEY WILL BE OVER THE SRN HLF OF
THE FCST AREA. WE KEPT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. HOWEVER...WE PHRASED IT AS MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE SFC HIGH...AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
LOOK FINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE UPPER ENERGY
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
THE SUN AND MIXING IN SOUTHERN AREAS...LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT ALSO PREVENTING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BEING FAR FROM WARMER GUIDANCE. IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THINNER...MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SOUTHERN AREAS...AS A
DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO CUT
THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SO...LOWS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...WITH SOME TEENS IN COLDER
SPOTS...AND VERY SIMILAR...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING LACK OF LOW CLOUD
COVER...AND DECENT MIXING...BUT FAIRLY WEAK WIND SPEEDS.
SO...STRONG MARCH SUN WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES...EVEN WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN SUNDAY A MORE MEANINGFUL
WARMING...SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S MANY AREAS...WITH AROUND 60
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND SOME 40S MOUNTAINS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO SAG
SOUTH...AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH IN
CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
ALSO DISPLACES SOUTH A BIT...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR COOLING OVER
THE REGION. BASED ON WHERE THE WEAK COLD FRONT SETS UP BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WILL DETERMINE IF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND SARATOGA REGIONS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE REST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...JUST GOING A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS HAVE A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. THEY SHIFT
THE LOW EASTWARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THE TWO MODELS DIGRESS
WITH THE GFS MOVING IT EAST OF LABRADOR BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF DEEPENS IT AND LEAVES IT JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY...
THEN SHIFTS IT TO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BUT THEN MOVES
IT DUE EAST INTO THE OCEAN WITHOUT AFFECTING OUR WEATHER. THE
ECM ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE TROF WEST OF THE REGION WHICH
IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z GFS RUN. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT
FOR THE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM HPC FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS FOR BETTER FIT. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR FRIDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS HOW FAST A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT. WE HAVE GONE MOSTLY WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS AND POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STRETCH ACROSS KGFL AND KALB. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION
IS DRY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH...SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT. NO SIG WX.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO WX.
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...POSS NIGHTTIME MVFR FOG.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -RA.
TUE NGT-WED...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SN CHANGING TO -RA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.
THE LATEST READING AS OF 3 PM SHOWS THE RIVER LEVEL CONTINUING TO
HOLD STEADY RIGHT AT 403.0 FEET...WHICH CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE
FLOOD STAGE LEVEL. AT THIS LEVEL...WATER MAY STILL BE ON SOME OF
THE LOW ROADS THAT CROSS THE FLATS IN THE ORISKANY AREA. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL LIKELY DROP SOME BUT WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP UNTIL
WE GET ANOTHER OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. THE SCHROON RIVER IN WARREN
COUNTY HAS ALSO STOPPED RISING AND LEVELED OFF. IT WILL START TO
SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE THURSDAY BARELY MANAGED
TO REACH FREEZING IN THE ALBANY AREA AND REMAINED BELOW FREEZING
EVERYWHERE THERE WAS SNOW LEFT TO MELT.
MUCH OF THE ICE ON RIVERS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS ON
THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AND OTHER CATSKILL RIVERS HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT
DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...MANY
RIVERS ARE STILL ICE COVERED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE COLDER
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL MAINTAIN THIS ICE.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE
20S...SO WHILE SOME SLIGHT DIURNAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS DUE TO SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS...NO FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...RCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 131440
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY...AND MODERATING TO
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN POSSIBLE BY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/TN VALLEY WILL BE OVER THE SRN HLF OF
THE FCST AREA. WE KEPT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. HOWEVER...WE PHRASED IT AS MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE SFC HIGH...AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
LOOK FINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MORE UPPER ENERGY
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
THE SUN AND MIXING IN SOUTHERN AREAS...LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT ALSO PREVENTING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BEING FAR FROM WARMER GUIDANCE. IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THINNER...MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SOUTHERN AREAS...AS A
DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO CUT
THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SO...LOWS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...WITH SOME TEENS IN COLDER
SPOTS...AND VERY SIMILAR...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING LACK OF LOW CLOUD
COVER...AND DECENT MIXING...BUT FAIRLY WEAK WIND SPEEDS.
SO...STRONG MARCH SUN WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES...EVEN WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN SUNDAY A MORE MEANINGFUL
WARMING...SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S MANY AREAS...WITH AROUND 60
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND SOME 40S MOUNTAINS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO SAG
SOUTH...AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH IN
CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
ALSO DISPLACES SOUTH A BIT...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR COOLING OVER
THE REGION. BASED ON WHERE THE WEAK COLD FRONT SETS UP BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WILL DETERMINE IF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND SARATOGA REGIONS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE REST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...JUST GOING A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS HAVE A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. THEY SHIFT
THE LOW EASTWARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THE TWO MODELS DIGRESS
WITH THE GFS MOVING IT EAST OF LABRADOR BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF DEEPENS IT AND LEAVES IT JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY...
THEN SHIFTS IT TO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BUT THEN MOVES
IT DUE EAST INTO THE OCEAN WITHOUT AFFECTING OUR WEATHER. THE
ECM ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE TROF WEST OF THE REGION WHICH
IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z GFS RUN. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT
FOR THE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM HPC FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS FOR BETTER FIT. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR FRIDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS HOW FAST A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT. WE HAVE GONE MOSTLY WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS AND POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7AM...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WERE CALM OR NEARLY SO.
THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE ALBANY
AREA SOUTH...AND A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS IN THE KPOU AREA. A
FINE VFR DAY IN STORE FOR TODAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL AVERT FOG. VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SUN...VFR...NO WX.
SUN NGT-MON NGT...MAINLY VFR...POSS NIGHTTIME MVFR/IFR FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...CHC -RA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.
THE LATEST READING AS OF 3 PM SHOWS THE RIVER LEVEL CONTINUING TO
HOLD STEADY RIGHT AT 403.0 FEET...WHICH CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE
FLOOD STAGE LEVEL. AT THIS LEVEL...WATER MAY STILL BE ON SOME OF
THE LOW ROADS THAT CROSS THE FLATS IN THE ORISKANY AREA. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL LIKELY DROP SOME BUT WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP UNTIL
WE GET ANOTHER OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. THE SCHROON RIVER IN WARREN
COUNTY HAS ALSO STOPPED RISING AND LEVELED OFF. IT WILL START TO
SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE THURSDAY BARELY MANAGED
TO REACH FREEZING IN THE ALBANY AREA AND REMAINED BELOW FREEZING
EVERYWHERE THERE WAS SNOW LEFT TO MELT.
MUCH OF THE ICE ON RIVERS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SUCH AS ON
THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AND OTHER CATSKILL RIVERS HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT
DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...MANY
RIVERS ARE STILL ICE COVERED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE COLDER
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL MAINTAIN THIS ICE.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE
20S...SO WHILE SOME SLIGHT DIURNAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS DUE TO SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW PACK STILL EXISTS...NO FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. GAGES SHOWING SIGNS OF ICE
EFFECTS ARE ANNOTATED ON THE AHPS PAGES AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK
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