FXUS63 KFGF 100127 CCA
AFDFAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
825 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

.EVENING UPDATE...
CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE RIGHT NOW.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS 500 MB 
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH INTO NRN MN/NRN ND...WITH MAIN VORT OVER NE ND.  
SOME DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS VORT BRINGING CLEARING TO SRN 
MANITOBA.  BUT HIGH CLOUDS DO EXIST IN THIS AREA AS WELL.  AS 500 MB 
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...AIRMASS ALOFT WILL REMAIN 
COLD. BUT WITH LOSS OF SUN AND DAYTIME HEATING...DO EXPECT SOME 
CLEARING TO COMMENCE...BUT DONT THINK WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL OCCUR 
DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.  CLOUD TRENDS WILL HAVE 
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING 
HOLES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S PER FCST 
LATER TONIGHT.  A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH STRATOCU 
DECK SO WILL LEAVE IN.  THUS...CURRENT FCST IN FINE SHAPE AND RIGHT 
NOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY UPDATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD 
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER ON THIS EVENING...IF NEEDED. 
------------------------------------------------------------------
.PREV AFD...

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF FORECAST WILL BE CONTINUED 
CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FLURRY ACTIVITY. WILL 
CONTINUE FLURRIES FOR AREA TONIGHT/SATURDAY...THEN MOVE FLURRIES 
INTO EASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S READINGS...WITH A BIT MORE SUN POSSIBLE. 
CONVECTIVE TEMPS STILL AROUND FREEZING ON SATURDAY BUT WARM INTO THE 
50S ON SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW TURNS MORE ANTICYCLONIC ON SUNDAY WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE COMING OVERHEAD...SO EXPECT MORE SUN. TEMPS SHOULD 
WARM ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 
CONTINUED WARMING WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR ZERO IN ACTIVE 
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE 
SURFACE WITH TEMPS APPROACHING NORMAL.  

.LONG TERM...
TUES THRU FRI...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL 
ALLOW COOL NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS PASS 
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINOR AS MOISTURE WILL BE 
LIMITED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A GRADUAL 
TRANSITION TO A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STORM SYSTEM TRIES TO 
SPIN UP IN THE NATIONS MID-SECTION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH IMPACTS 
FOR OUR REGION STILL UNKNOWN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WARNINGS FOR TOWNER...CAVALIER...PEMBINA...
     BENSON....RAMSEY...WALSH AND NELSON COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z SUN. 
MN...NONE. 

&&

$$
DK/JCA/DTR