Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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000 FXUS63 KEAX 111617 CCA AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1110 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009 .UPDATE... TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO REFLECT TRENDS. CLAYCOMB && .DISCUSSION... /422 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009/ CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AND ARID CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAVE US DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP STARTING ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY COLD AIR ADVECTION RULES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LONG FETCH OF BROKEN CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDWEST. SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY THINNING OUT. AS THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS ON THURSDAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL GENERATE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS KS AND SLOWLY INCH EAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AS NOTED IN THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO VIRGA OR SPRINKLES ARE ABOUT THE MOST ONE CAN EXPECT TO SEE. GFS AND ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NOR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONTINUITY TO WARRANT PLACING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT NOT WILLING TO GO HIGHER THAN THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 19 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING TO SPILL CIRRUS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...TURNING NE BY THE EVENING. DUX && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
