Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)
BTS Home > Publications > Journal of Transportation and Statistics > Volume 7 Number 1 > Paper 3
Printable Version

Table 8: Annual Percentage Errors (APE), Forecasted Annual Growth Rates (FGR), Observed Annual Growth Rates (OGR) of h = 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro, Bus Tickets, and Travel Cards for Alternative Models

Forecasting Period: 2000-2002

Excel | CSV

  SMT 10MT SBT 10BT TC JTC
Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR Causal DHR
2000, h = 1                        
APE -0.87 -0.17 0.3 1.82 -2.77 -0.30 -1.32 -1.63 -0.04 -1.43 -0.43 2.28
FGR 12.22 13.01 5.96 7.57 0.87 3.44 -3.75 -1.05 9.21 7.69 -4.06 -1.45
OGR 13.2 5.64 3.75 -2.47 9.26 -3.65
2001, h = 1                        
APE 0.97 1.23 1.15 1.3 0.25 0.88 0.25 0.4 0.15 3.36 -0.22 2.11
FGR 5.67 5.94 0.9 1.06 -1.61 -0.99 -3.12 -2.97 6.2 9.61 -3.10 -0.83
OGR 4.65 -0.24 -1.86 -3.36 6.04 -2.88
2002, h = 1                        
APE 0.84 -0.07 -0.78 -3.36 1.86 1.28 -0.80 -1.70 0.56 0.04 -1.17 0.42
FGR -4.85 -5.71 6.15 3.39 -14.36 -14.84 -1.09 -1.98 5.01 4.47 -3.29 -1.73
OGR -5.64 6.98 -15.90 -0.29 4.43 -2.15
2001, h = 6                        
APE 2.65 3 5.09 2.27 -0.19 4.25 -0.22 1.09 3.61 4.33 -0.62 2.96
FGR 7.42 7.79 4.84 2.02 -2.05 2.32 -3.57 -2.30 9.87 10.63 -3.48 0
OGR 4.65 -0.24 -1.86 -3.36 6.04 -2.88
2002, h = 6                        
APE 3.55 1.86 -5.76 -5.56 7.37 4.73 -1.51 -2.28 1.05 2.36 -1.61 1.42
FGR -2.30 -3.89 0.82 1.03 -9.72 -11.94 -1.79 -2.56 5.52 6.89 -3.72 -0.76
OGR -5.64 6.98 -15.90 -0.29 4.43 -2.15
2001, h = 12                        
APE 3.52 7.57 10.46 7.2 -4.38 7.1 -0.62 0.42 2.01 2.17 -0.07 2.48
FGR 8.33 12.57 10.19 2.02 -6.16 2.32 -3.96 -2.95 8.17 8.35 -2.95 -0.47
OGR 4.65 -0.24 -1.86 -3.36 6.04 -2.88
2002, h = 12                        
APE 9.91 9.69 -10.13 -6.13 17.79 15.62 -2.14 -2.80 1.19 4.62 2.12 1.35
FGR 3.71 3.5 -3.86 0.42 -0.96 -2.79 -2.42 -3.08 5.64 9.26 -0.07 -0.83
OGR -5.64 6.98 -15.90 -0.29 4.43 -2.15
2002, h = 24                        
APE 16.94 28.68 10.66 7 10.41 34 -2.48 -2.20 6.17 6.39 -1.17 3.98
FGR 10.34 21.42 18.38 14.47 -7.17 12.67 -2.76 -2.48 17.17 11.11 -3.29 1.75
OGR -5.64 6.98 -15.90 -0.29 4.43 -2.15
Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) • U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT)
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE • Washington, DC 20590 • 800-853-1351 • E-mail RITA

Accessibility | Disclaimer | Fast Lane | FedStats | Freedom of Information Act | No FEAR Act | OIG Hotline | Privacy Policy | RSS | USA.gov | White House | Wireless

Plug-ins: PDF Reader | Flash Player | Excel Viewer | PowerPoint Viewer | Word Viewer | WinZip

RITA's privacy policies and procedures do not necessarily apply to external web sites. We suggest contacting these sites directly for information on their data collection and distribution policies.