SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
320 AM MDT WED JUN 9 1999
DRYLINE MAY GET ACTIVE AGAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN CO TODAY WHILE COLD
FRONT HEADS TOWARDS KPUB BY EARLY THU MORNING.
TDA: 06Z/09 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD DRYLINE STILL OUT IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WAS OBSCURED BY CURRENT/OLD MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL
LOOK FOR LOWER TO MID 50S DEW POINTS TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CO LATER ON THIS MORNING. PACIFIC FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN SD
INTO NORTHWESTERN NE AND THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CO INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH MOVING
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP. WILL LOOK
FOR THIS FEATURE TO BE IN WESTERN KS BY PRESS TIME. OTHERWISE...
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN WESTERN
U.S. WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CWA. FOLLOWED
ETA SOLUTION GIVEN BETTER TOPOGRAPHIC RESOLUTION AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO KICK-IN AGAIN LATER
ON THIS MORNING. SHOULD BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. DRYLINE WILL BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KLHX AND KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. 850-500MB
MEAN RH VALUES AROUND 40% IN EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
DEEP CONVECTION PROCESSES LIKE YESTERDAY. ETA/RUC 700 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGD TO RANGE FROM 11-13 DEG C BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY ALONG I-25
IT MAY BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN WEAKER WIND FIELDS.
MODIFIED SOUNDING POINTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS AND CAME UP WITH
CAPES OF 900-1200 J/KG (95/40;T/TD). GIVEN YESTERDAY'S ATMOSPHERE'S
RESPONSE TO MID 90 SURFACE TEMPERATURES...CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE
OUT TSRA IN EASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY IF LA JUNTA LOW FIRES UP.
CURRENT ZFP HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. PLAN TO ADD A WIND GROUP TO FIRST
PERIOD AS WINDS COULD PICK UP LATER ON THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH
AROUND 500 OR 600 PM WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING.
TNGT/THU: ETA HAVING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH LAST NIGHTS 48-72HR AVN AND
OLD MRF RUNS ON POTENTIAL WEATHER SCENARIOS TO PLAYOUT IN THE PLAINS
AND EASTERN CO LATE TNGT/THU. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETUP FROM
EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL NE AND INTO NORTHERN CO BY 00Z/10 THU.
TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING DURING THE
EVENING. AROUND THE DRYLINE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FRONTAL/UPSLOPE
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA IN EASTERN WY/WESTERN NE DURING THE EVENING. AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT YESTERDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY GO INTO AN ORGANIZED
MCS ACROSS NE AS 850MB 50KT ACROSS KS FEEDS HIGH CAPE AIR INTO
SYSTEM. MCS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BETTER
MOISTURE...STRONGER IN-FLOW...AND VEERING OF LLJ BY THU MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. ETA WISHES TO DROP BOUNDARY AS FAR AS KTAD-KSPD BY 18Z/10
THU. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL.
FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. WITH ANY MIXING...WILL MOST LIKELY
MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARDS KCOS/PALMER DIVIDE. ETA HINTS AT THIS BY
00Z/11 FRI. MID-LEVELS PROGGED TO MOISTEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION
OF CWA BY THU AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK REAL INTERESTING
AROUND KCOS AREA THU AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL LOWERING...ANY
STRONG TSRA THAT DEVELOP IN THE KCOS AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 20KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE PIKES PEAK AREA
THROUGH SUNSET THU. TNGT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUITE...EXCEPT FOR ANY
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN KS. ALSO...COOLER
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FOR THU. CURRENT ZFP ONCE AGAIN HAS THIS
HANDLED WELL.
EXTENDED(FRI-SUN): 48-72 HR AVN INDICATING WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PROGGED TO BE MORE NORTHWEST-NORTH ON MUCH OF FRI...WHICH DOESN'T
BODE WELL THE TSRA. WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT RETURNS FOR SAT-SUN.
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY...PLAN NOT TO CHANGE EFP.
.PUB...NONE.
METZE
FXUS65 KGJT 090908 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
21Z RUC SHOWS FIRST SIGNS OF SOME SURFACE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE UPPER VORT MAX OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA.
BOTH THE LOW AND THE VORT MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW IN GULF...AND SHOULD MOVE TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. THERE IS LITTLE FORCING WITH THE SFC LOW
AT THIS TIME...AND THUS EXPECT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO
REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN. EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FEEL THAT POPS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM ZONE PACKAGES. BIGGEST REMAINING
QUESTION IS THE EFFECT OF THE MID AND UPPER CLOUD SHIELD MOVING NW
FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL HAVE ON TEMPS AND FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FCST AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS OF NEAR 70 TO LOW
70'S LOOK GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR ALL ZONES
RECOMMENDED.
GOULD
FXUS62 KMLB 100046 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
213 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY LATE. UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
THU...NGM/ETA MOVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NORTH FASTER THAN AVN AND SHIFT
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE THE FEATURE WILL
BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE THAT MUCH
OF AN IMPACT EVEN IF UPPER AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT MATERIALIZE. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST SO
EVEN IF THE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF US...THE MAIN EFFECT WOULD BE THAT
THERE WOULD BE LESS OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THAT HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION RECENTLY. PLANNING ON GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR INTERIOR AND 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST.
FRI...AVN CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BUT OTHER
MODELS WANT TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING AS GULF UPPER LOW FILLS. ETA/NGM
SHOW MORE SUBSIDENCE THAN AVN OFF TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT DO NOT SEE THIS
AFFECTING THE AREA...SO THE RATHER DEEP LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OUR MOIST REGIME. WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT POPS
INLAND AND 30 ALONG THE COAST.
SAT THROUGH MONDAY...DIGGING TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE FORECAST TO CUT
OFF THEN DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP LAYER
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS AS A RESULT OF DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE ON WEST
SIDE OF MID/UPPER LOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS INTERIOR AND
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR COAST MAINLY LATE NIGHT/MORNING.
MARINE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS...BUOYS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT. RUC SHOWS 15 KT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
BY 03Z WHILE AVN INCREASES THEM TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT IS IN RESPONSE TO KEEPING LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH TOO CLOSE TO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...
THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA SHOULD NOT CHANGE
MUCH IN STRENGTH AS BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HENCE...WILL KEEP THE 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY...
DAB BB 073/086 072/086 073 3433
MCO TB 071/088 072/089 072 2524
MLB BB 074/086 073/086 074 3433
.MLB...NONE.
BORZILLERI/LASCODY
FXUS62 KTBW 091413 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SWIRL IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING NW
ACROSS THE BIG BEND. THIS VORTICITY CENTER WAS DEPICTED NICELY BY
THIS MORNING/S RUC AND HAS PRODUCED A RATHER CLOUDY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS HAVE BEEN LAGGING GUIDANCE A BIT. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RUC SHOWS THE VORT CENTER REACHING THE AQQ RIVER BY AROUND 22Z AND
CONTINUING WNW. ON THE NVA SIDE OF THE VORT...SEEING SEVERAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. THIS CLEARING SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER QUICKLY SO
WILL NOT TWEAK AFTERNOON MAXT/S DOWNWARD.
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWED THE VORT LOBE FURTHER SE OF CURRENT
LOCATION AND IN A BETTER POSITION TO ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
NEVERTHELESS...THE RUC DOES SHOW ANOTHER VORT CENTER ROTATING INTO
NE FL WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT. THEREFORE...THE UPPER SUPPORT
WILL STILL BE A FACTOR.
MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN THIS MORNING/S 12Z TLH SOUNDING IS DEEP
DRY LAYER FROM 600 TO 725 MB. MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR 91/70 THIS AFTERNOON.
RESULTANT LI WAS -7 WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND PW OF 1.4. SO
ISTABILITY IS CERTAINLY THERE. UPSHOT IS THAT WE/LL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN ZONES.
MAW
FXUS62 KJAX 091404 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...
ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ON SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO
SOUTHERN GA. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER
SOUTH GA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS LOOK GOOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
.ATL...NONE.
SCHAUB
ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
SHORT TERM...
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL SHOWING UP FROM LAST NIGHT'S
CONVECTION, BEST SHOWN ON 1KM VIS IMAGERY DEMARKING CU FIELD, AND
ALSO ON LAPS SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS. BOUNDARY RUNS FROM ENHANCED CU
FIELD NEAR SPW TO OTM AREA. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 S OF
BOUNDARY. CAPES HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED TO ABOVE 4000 J/KG AND
LOCALLY ABOVE 5000 IN NE AND SC IA. SHEAR PROFILE IS A BIT BETTER
TODAY PER PROFILER WINDS, AS ANOTHER MVC IS APPROACHING INTO SW
IA/SE NE. NEW CELLS POPPING NEAR CBF AND EXPECT MORE TO DEVELOP IN
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR SPW. IN FACT, GLANCE AT LATEST IMAGE
SHOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT THERE. SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME REALITY
IN NW IA WHERE BEST INFLUENCE FROM VORT CENTER OCCURS PER RUC
FORECAST. ETA FORECASTING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE FORM OF A
DEVELOPING THETA E TROUGH OVER THE STATE BY 00Z. WITH REGARD TO
ZONES, UPDATING TO GO CATEGORICAL IN WESTERN CWA.
.DSM...NONE
KULA
ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
KPAH 88D ONCE AGAIN SHOWING DIURNAL SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
FA. WEAK ELONGATED AXIS OF VORT SHOWN ON 15Z RUC EXTENDING FROM
AR-KY-IL COULD BE AIDING IN CONVECTION. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...SO WILL LINGER SCT
TSRA INTO ALL ZONES FOR EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN GOING FCST PACKAGE. WEAK AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME SHORTWAVE TROFS CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FA ARND WRN EDGE OF
SLOWLY WEAKENING UPR RIDGE OVER SE STATES. ETA CONT TO BE THE MODEL
OF CHOICE...GIVEN ITS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE PROGS. FA WILL COME
INCREASINGLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TROF TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ONLY HELP TO ENHANCE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE LWR/MID MS VLY RESULTING IN SLOWLY INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THRU FRI.
SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PERSISTENCE DIURNAL SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA ON THU. WILL INTRODUCE OVERNIGHT POPS IN THU NIGHT AS ALL
MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE TROF NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
CWA BY 12Z FRI. WILL GO WITH 50% POPS ON FRI GIVEN LACK OF
CERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT OR TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROFS. FRI NITE
INTO SUNDAY APPEARS UNSETTLED WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA AS SFC BNDRY TO OUR
WEST SLIDES SLOWLY ACROSS AREA. DRIER AND LESS HUMID MONDAY AFTER
FROPA.
FAN/FWC NOS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.
.PAH...NONE.
KEYSOR
FXUS71 KRLX 091929 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
851 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
WRKZFP/WRKCWF SENT SDC/RDC BLUE BOX.
DISC...CLEARING TREND IS PAINFULLY SLOW! BASED ON LATEST SAT TRENDS
AND THE 21Z RUC WIL GO WTH M/CLDY OVR STHRN NH AND PARTIAL CLEARING FOR
REMAINDER OF NH AS WEL AS WSTRN/STHRN ME. WHER CLOUD HAS LINGERED HAV
RAISED MINS SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHNGES.
CSTAL WTRS...SEAS 4 FT AT 44007 AS OF 00Z. TREND SHUD CONTINUE
OVRNGHT. SO WIL DROP SCA FOR SEAS WTH THE 930 UPDATE.
HAV A GUD NGHT.
.GYX...ES
ES
FXUS71 KGYX 091824 me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
855 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING THRU NEW ENG HAS MANAGED TO FLATTEN THE ERN
U.S. UPR LVL RDG TO ALLOW A BACKDOOR CDFNT THRU THE AREA THIS EVE.
FNT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NE PTN OF THE LWX CWA WITH WSHFT TO NE
BEHIND THE FNT. LOW CLDS FOLLOW WELL BEHIND THE FNT.
18Z MESOETA AND 21Z RUC INDICATE THE LOW LVLS WL MOISTEN UP OVRNGT
BEHIND THE CDFNT. IN ADDITION...CI BLOWOFF FROM DYING CNVCTN TO OUR
W WL OVERSPREAD THE SW PTN OF THE AREA. WE WL CHG OVRNGT PERIOD TO
P/CLOUDY TO ACCT FOR BOTH OF THESE FACTORS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS BASED ON LAMP DATA AND CURRENT OBS.
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S INTO THE AREA THU/FRI AS UPR LVL RDG AXIS
STARTS TO BUILD TO OUR WEST. SO COOLER...BUT WITH NW FLO ALOFT...
REMAINING DRY. MDLS ALSO HINT THAT THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE AREA SO V/CLOUDY MAY BE A BETTER TERM. HOWEVER...WL
LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THIS. AGREE W/ PREVIOUS SHIFT OF 30 POP SW
ZNS AND HIGHLANDS ON TUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THAT AREA JUST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FNT. IN ADDITION...CAPES CLIMB
AND IT DOES GET A BIT UNSTABLE.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE MRF NOW SHOWS A DEEP ERN U.S. TROF FOR THE 2ND
RUN IN A ROW. I STILL BELIEVE THE MRF IS OVERDONE...BUT GIVEN
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ERN PAC...FEEL AND ERN TROF IS NOW POSSIBLE...
JUST NOT ANYWHERE NEAR THE STRENGTH THAT THE MRF IS SHOWING.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THE TROF WL BE PROGRESSIVE WHICH MEANS
WE QUICKLY GO BACK TO NW FLOW WHICH MEANS DRY. COULD SEE SOME SCT
CNVCTN WITH THE CDFNT MON/TUE TIME FRAME...BUT IT WL NOT BE ENUF TO
AFFECT THE DROUGHT. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE MRF GENERATES WHAT APPEARS
TO BE 2 MORE PHANTOM TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WRN ATLC. TALK ABOUT
THE "MODEL THAT CRIED WOLF".
.LWX...NONE.
WALSTON
FXUS61 KLWX 091757 md
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ..FINAL..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
535 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
...HEAT RELIEF VIA LOW OVC/DRZL AND RW- BEGINNING 10Z-18Z WED AND
CONTG THRU AT LEAST 12-18Z THU IN SNE AND AND ONCE IT ARRIVES -
WE MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW CLD CVR BVY-IJD SWD TO THE S COAST
TIL FRI...
COORD VIA TELCON GYX/OKX/MPC 3A-4A EDT.
MODELS: BLV NGM HAS TOO SHORT A DURATION OF LOW CLDS AND RELYING ON
ETA/GEM FOR BETTER DEFINITION OF OVC CONDS AND MINOR QPF.
INTERIM 03Z ETA TIMES MAIN BAND OF RW- INTO NE MA ARD 18Z
TO BOS ARD 22Z AND PVD ARD 01Z MISSING CT RVR VLY WHEREAS
RUC TRIES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE SHWRS 15-18Z ALONG AND
W OF CT RVR. AM MORE CONFIDENT OF COASTAL RAIN DUE TO STG
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND 5H VT OVHD THEN I AM OF
CONVECTION IN CT RVR AREA. ALOS INTERIM ETA SEEMS TOO
WARM ON ITS 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS DEFINATELY TOO SLOW.
MARINE: SCA CONTS AND SHUD BE VERIFYING WITH 25 KT GUSTS AT 09Z.
ALSO NOTING NEWD UPSTREAM BUOY GUSTS 29-31 KTS AND AIR TEMP
OVR OCEAN DOWN TO 49-53.
RADAR: BACKDOOR CFNT VERY EVIDENT ON OUR VELOCITY DATA AND WHIPPING
SWWD ABT 20 KT AND WELL PAST OUR OFFICE AT 0935Z.
PUBLIC: CHILLY DRIZZLY THIS AFTN XPCTD BOS AREA WITH TEMPS RUNNING
30-35 COLDER THAN 24 HRS EARLIER.
LOGAN YDY 16Z WAS 91 TDY 58
18Z 92 58
20Z 90 57 OR 33-34 COLDER.
UPPING NGM POPS (NO GUARENTEE OF SUCCESS IN THIS DRY PATTERN) FOR
MEAS 20-50 PCT ALL SNE TDY AND UPP 20-40 PCT TNGT FOR LEFTOVR
.01-.03 AND NOT GOING ZERO CHC THU AS XPCT CLRG TO B SLOW AND FITFUL
(ESP SSE OF A BVY-IJD LN TO THE S COAST) DUE TO PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
DESPITE SFC PPP RDG BUILDING NEARLY ON TOP OF US. IF IT DOES CLR THU
AFTN...IT MAY QUICKLY CLD OR FOG UP THU NITE DUE TO LIGHT WIND
RADIATION CONDS.
.BOS...SCA.
DRAG
NOTE TO CUSTOMERS: EFFECTIVE 900 AM EDT TUESDAY JUNE 15
1999...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION. THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL CONTAIN THE SAME
INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PRODUCT...AND WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE
NWWS HEADER BOSAFDBOX AND FOS/WMO HEADER FXUS61 KBOX.
ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
MAIN FCST QUESTION OVERNIGHT CONCERNS TSRA/SHRA CHANCES.
FRONTAL BNDRY FROM NORTH CNTRL MN INTO ERN NEB ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY IN
VCNTY OF FRONT WITH BEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND UPR LVL
SUPPORT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET OVER NRN MN...PER 00Z RUC 250
DIVERGENCE. MCS OVER NRN MN MOVING QUICKLY NE INTO WRN ONTARIO.
ANOTHER MCS WAS LOCATED OVER NW IA...ALSO MOVING TO THE NE. HIGHEST
CAPE VALUES LINGER OVER NRN WI WITH VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG PER LAPS
ANALYSIS. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT OF MCS THROUGH WRN WI
TOWARD WRN UPR MI ALONG 850-300 THICKNESS CONTOUR AND FCST MBE
PROPAGATION. FRONT ALSO WL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH 1000-850
NW FLOW OF 15-25 KNOTS. WL MENTION SCT TSRA/SHRA OVER WEST PORTION
OF CWA LATE...AFT 08Z BUT LEAVE REST OF AREA DRY.
TEMPS GENEARLLY ON TRACK WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN 59 TO 65 RANGE
AND CONTINUED SSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 100224 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
910 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING SHOWERS FROM THE UP
AND PUNCH UP POPS IN THE LP. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED ON MORNING
BOUNDARIES AND PVA CURRENTLY SHOWN MOVING IN ON THE 9Z RUC.
BELIEVE THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE DAY AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE STABILIZED
POCKETS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NO CAP TODAY OR EXPECTED TO WORK
IN TODAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AT WILL ALONG BOUNDARIES TODAY
AND KEEP THINGS BROKEN UP AND DISORGANIZED.
ADJUSTED ONLY MACKINAC COUNTY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE BUT
PRELIMINARY LOOK SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED BACK A FEW DEGREES.
.APX...NONE.
HIRSCH
FXUS63 KMQT 090828 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
830 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 1999
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN WITH GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FLOW
PATTERN AND WINDS HAVE GONE MORE WESTERLY ON THE WOOD LAKE PROFILER
INDICATING TROUGH PASSAGE SUGGESTED BY 21Z RUC. STILL SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SFC LOW OVER SW MN. 850 MB THETA E RIDGE LINGERS
FROM IA INTO SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISC OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION
OVER IOWA WILL LIKELY PUSH UP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WI
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADJUST SOME POPS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE PRECIP
ENDING OVER WESTERN COUNTIES.
.MSP...NONE
RICHARDSON
FXUS63 KDLH 092058 mn
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
210 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
...THREAT OF SEVERE WX FIRST ORDER OF CONCERN FOLLOWED BY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SC KS
SLOW TO EXIT EASTERN FA. BANDS OF CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HOWEVER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENT NEBR INTO NW KS VIA VIS SAT. THIS MAY
PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...BUT MORE
IMPORTANT IS THE INABILITY OF SFC DWPTS TO REBOUND. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FA WHILE EASTERN NEBR AND KS ARE
WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. 15Z RUC SHOWS LLVL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH 65 DEWPTS FCST ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 CWA BY MID AFTN
WHICH MAY BE PUSHING IT. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS AND KLNX 88-D DEPICT COLD
FRONT FROM JUST EAST OF KANW TO NEAR KLBF.
STILL UNSURE WERE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...BUT AM LEANING
EAST OF FA AREA ATTM. EXPECT SOME REFL RETURNS ON RADAR NEAR EASTERN
FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE AND WILL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE FOR UPDATES/WATCH
HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE FINAL PRODUCT IS SENT. SFC
BASED CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 2500-3000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
EASTERN CWA...BUT WEAK SPEED SHEAR COULD SUSPEND LIQUID WATER IN
UPDRAFT AND ADD ADDITIONAL LATENT HEAT UPON FREEZING THUS INCREASING
CAPE EVEN FURTHER. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOS IS PROGGED WITH
LIFTED FCST BETWEEN -8 TO -11. BRN AND BRN SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
COMBINATION OF SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. MORE LIKELY
SUPERCELL...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...EARLY WITH A
TRANSITION TO MULTICELL...THEN A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SETTING UP
OVERNIGHT. DIFFLUENT THKNS PATTERN EAST OF FA AND STRONG UPPER AIR
DIVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING TRAINING CELLS TONIGHT LEADING TO
LOCAL HEAVY RAINS AND URBAN FLOODING.
CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST STORMS
FROM BECOMING SEVERE...BUT A FEW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CWA NEAR FRONT. WILL RIDE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN FCST...WITH MENTION OF A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE
TONIGHT. THURSDAY DAY POPS 40-50%. AVN HANGS UP FRONT ON FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A TAD FAR NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM GUID EXCEPT TO TACK ON A DEGREE OR TWO TO OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE
TO THICK CLOUD CANOPY.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UKMET/MRF/NOGAPS ALL AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN
EASTERN U.S. RIDGE WITH INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE. A
TRANSITION TO A WESTERN RIDGE PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS LOOK LIKELY ATTM. WILL GO DRY SAT/SUN/MON WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.GID...NONE
PURDY
FXUS63 KLBF 090920 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
IN THE NEAR TERM THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE SMALL GROUP OF SHOWERS THAT
RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR BIE. THESE APPEAR TO BE AN INTERACTION OF
THE LLJ WITH A LEADING BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB...WHICH
SHOWS NICELY ON THE FBY PROFILER...AND IS ALSO PICKED UP BY THE RUC.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS RPDLY NORTHEAST...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING. IF THE SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL
PROBABLY HEAD TOWARD OMA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK WHEN ZONES
GO OUT.
OTHERWISE...TODAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR COPY OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS MORNING. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL REACH 90 TO THE LOW 90S...A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE NGM MOS.
THE LATER CHALLENGE CONSISTS MAINLY OF FRONTAL POSITION AND
RAINFALL/POPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER AN MCS THAT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE MODEL HISTORY ON PICKING
MCS LOCATION THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ONLY MODEST. IF THE ETA WERE
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR
NORTHEAST NE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS ADVISABLE TO AT LEAST SEE IF THE
12Z MODEL RUNS ARE AS UNANIMOUS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. SINCE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE AREA IS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...IT WILL NEED A
DIRECT HIT FROM AN MCS FOR SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOODING. COORD WITH
FSD WHERE THE THINKING IS SIMILAR. STILL...LIKELY POPS ARE
JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH TNGT...AND WILL RETAIN 50 PCT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TOMORROW THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE
FRONT. ETA IS FARTHEST NORTH...WITH THE AVN AND NGM SIMILAR IN
STALLING IT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. I TEND TO FAVOR
A MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION FOR THE SFC FRONT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HELPS FORCE THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY WARM GIVEN
SURFACE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CONTIBUTE TO THE
CONVECTIVE PUSH.
CONTINUITY WITH THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WOULD PLACE MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND RISK OF DAYTIME PCPN NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH NGM HITTING THE CLOUDS AND POPS TOO HARD FOR OMA AND LNK
SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD REQUIRE RAISING GOING FORECAST TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY SOMEWHAT.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MCS...WITH PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES SLOWLY AND THE FRONT PUSHES
GRADUALLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. NORTHERN ZONES MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME
DRYING DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC
HIGH COULD MAKE SOME HEADWAY BY SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
NEW MRF IN THIS REGARD. WILL NOT CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED MUCH.
.OMA...NONE
POLLACK
ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
VSBL SAT PIX SHOW DIURNAL CU FIELD DVLPG ATTM OVER MOST OF CNY. THIS
IS LKLY DUE TO A COMBO OF SOME LL MOIST UNDER THE CAPPING INVERSION
SHOWN ON BUF SNDG AND MINOR S/WV IMPULSES MOVG THRU IN NW FLOW
(ILLUSTRATED WELL ON LATEST RUC OUTPUT). FOR ROUGHLY THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE FA...XPCT THIS CU FIELD TO SCTR OUT DURG THE AFTN AS SHALLOW MOIST
LYR GETS MIXED OUT AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN. P/SNY SEEMS
APPROPRIATE FOR THESE AREAS.
ACRS THE ERN-MOST ZNS...CURRENT FCST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
DEEPENING MOIST TREND WITH APPCH OF BACK-DOOR FRNT. WILL LEAVE IN
MINIMAL POPS WHERE THEY PRESENTLY ARE.
LWRD MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS BASED ON 12Z SNDGS.
WRK ZNS OUT. FINAL PACKAGE COMING SOON.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS71 KBUF 091356 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
QUICK LOOK AT 12Z NTRANS UA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE RIGHT ON TOP OF FA.
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOW HI PRES CENTERED TO OUR W. MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR THE AFTN & A RESULTANT
WIND EXPECTED W/ A LATE HI TIDE. BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL PROHIBIT
CONVECTION YET AGAIN. 13Z TEMPS IN FAIR AGREEMENT W/ LAMP GUID & LO-
LVL THICKNESSES IN BALLPARK W/ GOING FCSTS SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.
CWF: KLTX VWP SHOWS 250/20 AT 2K FT & FPSN7 230/13 AT 12Z. 03Z MESO-
ETA SHOWS SWRLY FLOW & 12Z RUC KINDA LGT/VRB. WILL CONTINUE SW 10-
15.
.ILM...NONE.
LGE
FXUS62 KMHX 091344 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
835 PM CDT WED JUN 09 1999
LATEST SFC DATA SHOWS SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING.
WHILE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS EAST OF FA...
SOME REDEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM BDE TO
FMM. 21Z RUC SHOWS ATMOSPHERE TO QUICKLY STABILIZE THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO THESE STORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. WILL
THEREFORE CANCEL WATCH SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME.
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR CHANGES...MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING
WORDING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
.FGF...NONE.
TURNER
FXUS63 KBIS 092043 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER FA WITH SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF AOH. TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR
80 ACROSS FA. MORNING ILN SOUNDING SHOWS MID 90S WITH NEARLY FULL
SUN...SO WILL CHANGE 90 TO 95 TO MID 90S. SOME HIGH RECORDS COULD
FALL TODAY. THREAT OF CONVECTION THINK IS VERY LOW AS SOUNDING VERY
DRY ALTHOUGH UNSTABLE (MODIFIED NEARLY 2000 J/KG). ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED CELL IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE. 12Z RUC HAS NVA OVER FA TODAY AS
WELL AS 700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS FA. IN OTHER
WORDS NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
.ILN...NONE.
TIPTON
FXUS71 KCLE 091325 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH DRIFTED INTO NRN OK HAS WASHED OUT WITH
STRONG MORNING SUN. MEANWHILE..REMNANTS OF LAST NITE/S CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE SHIELD OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME AREAS OF 1-2 KFT CEILINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING..WILL LIKELY CUT POPS A TAD IN THE
NORTH FOR THE TODAY PERIOD..AND LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS FOR NOW.
12Z UA ANAL SHOWED A 60 METER H5 HGT FALL AT ABQ AND 50 METERS AT
AMA WHICH IS A BIT INTRUIGING..ESP FOR JUNE. WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK VORT CENTER MOVING INTO WRN NM. THESE FEATURES BEAR
WATCHING..BUT TIMING OF SAID FEATURES BRINGS THEM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE ABOUT 22Z. 12Z RUC AND ARPS MODEL CONTINUE TO KEY ON AREA
IN CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INVOF DRYLINE FOR INITIATION. SO..HIGHER
POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH LOOK GOOD. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW STONGER
STORMS WHICH DRIFT INTO THE NW THIS EVENING..BUT RISK APPEARS PRETTY
SMALL ATTM FOR ANY ORGANZIED SVR IN MY AREA. AIRMASS FARTHER EAST
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED..AND WITH LACK OF ANY FOCUSSING
MECHANISM..ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY..AT BEST..IS ANTICIPATED.
MILLER
.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
FXUS64 KTSA 091541 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
920 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO REMOVE EXPIRED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AND MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WAVE ON THE FRONT OVER SW MN. WINDS
TURNED WLY AT OTG AND SHL...WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH OVER MOST OF
WRN MN REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. TSRA CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...AND EXPECT THIS AREA WILL CONT
TO SEE SCT TSRA OVERNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED AN ISOLATED CELL
WHICH DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF FSD...LIKELY ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONT.
THIS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...BUT KEPT LOW POPS IN AREAS EAST
OF JAMES VALLEY...AS 00Z RUC STILL SHOWS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEFORE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
AS OF NOW...PLAN TO LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE OVER REMAINING NW
IA COUNTIES AS SCHEDULED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MOVEMENT OF
STORMS OVER NEBRASKA...AS EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY IF IT APPEARS
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.
.FSD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NWRN IA COUNTIES OF DICKINSON...CLAY
BUENA VISTA AND IDA UNTIL 10 PM CDT.
FXUS63 KABR 100123 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
245 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
LATEST SATELITTE SHOWS APPARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING EASTERN
PART OF CWA. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING IN THE COOLER
AIR IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. LATEST RUC SHOWS BEST CAPE
VALUES TO THE EAST OF ABERDEEN CWA AND BEST LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANAL HAS WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST
SOUTHEAST OF ABERDEEN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN ABERDEEN CWA. AS AFTERNOON HEAT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
EASTERN AREA...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA. MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. AVN/NGM ARE
CLOSEST AND BEST HANDLE CANADIAN H5 LOW. PREFER NGM SOLUTION AND
WILL TEND TOWARD FWC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT H5 LOW NOW OVER ALBERTA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH ALLOWING
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVES AS LOW RE-ESTABLISHES OVER WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
SUGGESTED IN THE RUC RH FIELDS. NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY SO WILL MENTION A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.
...EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES AT
THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST...PUSHING SURFACE FRONT TO EAST.
BLENDING WITH CONTINUITY AND MRF...APPEARS THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ABR CWA EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
DRYING OUT TO WEST. UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY WITH
ENTIRE CWA STAYING DRY. THE RIDGE YIELDS A BIT ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND COULD CLIP
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY. FMR TEMPS
APPEAR REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
.ABR...NONE.
$$
KEEFE/LORENS
FXUS63 KABR 091940 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1025 AM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS AGAIN SVR POTENTIAL ACRS CWA. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
A CONCERN. FRONT CRNTLY LOCATED FROM KGFK TO KVTN AT 15Z. 12Z RUC
SHOWS FRONT ONLY REACHING KMHE BY 00Z. LARGE INSTABILITY ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN 2/3 OF CWA AS DEW POINTS IN U60S AND TEMPS
AROUND 80. KOAX SNDG SHOWS A CAP SO THAT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF FRONT. INSTEAD WL FOCUS POPS ALONG FRONT.
WITH MEAN FLOW BLO 500 MB NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT...AND SFC FLOW
BACKING TO SSE...EXPECT TRAINING ECHOS A POSSIBLE. WITH FFG VALUES
S OF I-90 IN SD BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES WL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SE SD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FFG
VALUES IN NE NEB AND NW IA ALSO BLO 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER...TSRA NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN NIGHT PERIOD...WL NOT ISSUE FFA THERE ATTM. WL LET NEXT PACKAGE
LOOK AT 12Z MODELS. SO WL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT IN SIGNIFICANT
WX OUTLOOK AT 11 AM.
SVR STORMS STILL LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL SO WL KEEP SEVERE WORDING AS IS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS EXPECTD.
.FSD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH YANKTON...BON HOMME...CLAY...HUTCHINSON...
TURNER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCHUMACHER
FXUS63 KABR 091509 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
MODIFIED 12Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATING AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WITH CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -8. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS MOST ACTIVITY AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT
THINK WIDELY SCATTERED TSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAST OF
THE CWA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL ALSO INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS IN THIS AREA.
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE 20 POP FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...PERSISTENCE SHOULD BE THE WAY TO GO WHICH IS HANDLED BY THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
DMG
FXUS74 KMEG 090806 tn
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
930 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
FIRST THOUGHT WAS TO REMOVE ALL POPS WITH SUNSET BUT QUICK LOOK AT
00Z RUC AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE A BIT DISTURBING. 00Z RUC
AGREES NICELY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS LAYERED Q
FIELD INDICATING LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT. LOW LEVEL LIFT IN
Q FIELD PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BY 06Z BUT THEN STALLS. UPPER
LEVEL LIFT MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS BY 12Z. STORMS ON A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND BUT THESE HAVE LASTED LONGER AFTER SUNSET THEN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS...AS USUAL...IS TYPICAL OF AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
UPPER LEVEL PVA SUSTAINING LIFT. ATMOSPHERE PRETTY UNSTABLE AND
RUC FORECASTS LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -8 BY 12Z. H5 ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWING PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR POOL TO ADVECT EAST AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE IN SMALL POPS CENTRAL AND WEST BUT
REMOVE THEM EAST. RUC FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND CURRENT READINGS SUGGEST
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ON TARGET. (80)
.FTW...NONE.
FXUS64 KMAF 100221 tx
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1038 AM CDT WED JUN 8 1999
AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING EAST OF
FA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST...BEST CONVERGENT AREA TO SHIFT A
LITTLE MORE EAST AS PER 12Z RUC. ATMOS UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAP...SO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE HIT/MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG SEABREEZE. TEMPS SEEM TO BE IN LINE...AND WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES THERE.
NOTICED THAT NEW FWC FOR CRP HAS POPS OF 40% TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT IT IS KEYING ON BEFORE JUMPING ON THAT NUMBER.
WILL SEND OUT GENERALLY COSMETIC CHANGE TO ZONE PACKAGE BY 11 AM.
.CRP...NONE.
86/GW
FXUS74 KFWD 091535 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
900 AM MDT WED JUN 9 1999
DISCUSSION...
13Z RUCII FCST SOUNDINGS FOR SRR AND GDP SHOW DRYING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOW PRECIP WATER DOWN TO 10-14MM
IN EASTERN MOST FORECAST AREA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED EAST SLOPES OF
SACRAMENTO MTNS...OTRW WILL REMOVE POPS FROM EASTERN ZONES. ALSO
BUMPED TEMPS JUST A NOTCH IN HUDSPETH COUNTY BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND LESS CLOUD.
06 RAMEY
N
FXUS64 KHGX 091450 tx
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
316 AM MDT THU JUN 10 1999
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THIS PACKAGE.
THU-FRI: LET THE BROKEN RECORD COMMENCE! NUMEROUS TSRA OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE MUDDLED ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FEATURES ACROSS
EASTERN CO AND CENTRAL PLAINS PER 07Z/10 HAND ANALYZED SURFACE MAP.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HUNG AROUND EL PASO COUNTY A LITTLE LONGER WITH
THE AID OF 700MB WAA...AND HAS MERGED INTO NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MASS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...AND CENTRAL NE. OTHERWISE...
MUCH OF CWA HAS CLEARED OUT WITH NO FOG/STRATUS SHOWING UP IN EL
PASO COUNTY PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
NUMEROUS...AND HARD TO TIME...WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY ABOUT 2000-4000
FEET DEEP PER WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE AND EASTERN CO WIND PROFILER
NETWORK. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE...PERSISTENCE THE WAY
TO GO FOR THIS PACKAGE. GOOD QUALITY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850-500MB MEAN RH RUNNING 40-
60% ACROSS CWA THROUGH FRI. SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CWA. MODIFIED ETA KCOS SOUNDING POINT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON USING 75/43 AND CAME UP WITH 1794 J/KG. PLENTY OF
ENERGY FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE RELEASE. LATEST RUC/ETA SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WILL LIKELY GET THE UPSLOPE GENERATED TSRA GOING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIKES PEAK AND KCOS AREAS. WITH NUMEROUS OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS...STILL THREAT OF
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS WET-BULB ZERO PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7000
FEET AGL...SO STRONGER TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS. FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING...SO COULD HAVE A
FEW SUPERCELLS. SEE SPC DAY1...SWODY1. KCOS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
AROUND 72 DEG F...SO TSRA THREAT WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AFTER
17Z OR 18Z PER LAMP DATA. PLAN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST "CHANCE" POPS IN
KCOS/TELLER COUNTY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING AND 20/30% POPS
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY LAST A FEW HOURS PAST
SUNSET AROUND KCOS AREA AGAIN...AS APPEARS TO BE SOME MID-LEVEL WAA
THROUGH 06Z/11. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PERSISTENCE THE BEST WAY TO GO ON FRI WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERNS. GENERALLY WILL LOOK FOR AFTERNOON/
EVENING UPSLOPE DRIVEN TSRA. BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER AND AROUND
SOUTHEAST CO MOUNTAINS. NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY OR
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM DRY THROUGH PERIOD.
EXTENDED(SAT-MON): NO CHANGES NEEDED.
.PUB...NONE.
METZE
FXUS65 KGJT 100830 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (H10-H8) THE AVN MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS WITH A BULLSEYE
OVER COASTAL N FL. ETA AND NGM HAVE A MAX FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
MAINTAIN IT THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. THAT
SAID THINK THE FAN POPS ARE TOO HIGH AT 78 PERCENT AND WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE NGM MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE RUC MODEL CONTINUES A SURFACE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PEN AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH
CONTINUES TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS
STILL EVIDENT OVER THE NE GULF ALTHOUGH IT IS SHEARING OUT SOMEWHAT
AND IS ELONGATED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GULF
COAST TODAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVEN'T REALLY HANDLED IT TOO WELL SO
FAR. I LIKE THE NGM MOS 40 PERCENT POPS FOR ALMA BUT I'M GOING TO
UNDERCUT THE POPS OVER COASTAL GA AND NORTH FLORIDA PREFERRING 50
PERCENT. ALSO WITH WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE FL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS.
PRELIM
AMG 87/66/84/67 4244
SSI 82/69/81/72 5354
JAX 86/68/86/67 5354
GNV 87/68/87/68 5354
SANDRIK
FXUS62 KTBW 100642 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999
KPAH 88D ONCE AGAIN SHOWING DIURNAL SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
FA. WEAK ELONGATED AXIS OF VORT SHOWN ON 15Z RUC EXTENDING FROM
AR-KY-IL COULD BE AIDING IN CONVECTION. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...SO WILL LINGER SCT
TSRA INTO ALL ZONES FOR EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN GOING FCST PACKAGE. WEAK AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME SHORTWAVE TROFS CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FA ARND WRN EDGE OF
SLOWLY WEAKENING UPR RIDGE OVER SE STATES. ETA CONT TO BE THE MODEL
OF CHOICE...GIVEN ITS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE PROGS. FA WILL COME
INCREASINGLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN
TROF TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ONLY HELP TO ENHANCE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE LWR/MID MS VLY RESULTING IN SLOWLY INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THRU FRI.
SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PERSISTENCE DIURNAL SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA ON THU. WILL INTRODUCE OVERNIGHT POPS IN THU NIGHT AS ALL
MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE TROF NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
CWA BY 12Z FRI. WILL GO WITH 50% POPS ON FRI GIVEN LACK OF
CERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT OR TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROFS. FRI NITE
INTO SUNDAY APPEARS UNSETTLED WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA AS SFC BNDRY TO OUR
WEST SLIDES SLOWLY ACROSS AREA. DRIER AND LESS HUMID MONDAY AFTER
FROPA.
FAN/FWC NOS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.
.PAH...NONE.
KEYSOR
FXUS71 KRLX 091929 ky
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS FROM 10/00Z SHOWS DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE AT
SHV AND LCH WITH 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT LCH. IN SE LA
PRECIP ONSET WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR INTRUSION AT 700-500 MB
AND A STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS AS INDICATED BY LI DROPPING TO 0
FROM -4 WED MORNING. SO QUESTION WILL BE HOW ATMOSPHERE ACROSS LA
WILL MODIFY DURING MORNING.
IN THE WEST RUC 06Z RUN INITIALIZES A VORT MAX IN NE TX BETWEEN KABI
AND KMWL AND CORRELATES WELL WITH CONVECTION FIRING THERE NOW. THE
RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF PVA MOVING INTO E TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ETA CAPE/CIN CHART SHOWING NO CAP AND LOW CAPES. COUPLE THIS WITH
ETA/NGM/AVN CROSS SECTIONS FOR LCH AND SHV SHOWING RH OF 80 PERCENT
OR BETTER THROUGH 200 MB AND 50 POPS LOOK TO BE IN ORDER WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP DUE TO WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC WIND REGIME. WILL DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN W ON FRI AS
MOISTURE IN LAYERS ABOVE 600 MB DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT WEAK UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN IN AREA SO 30 TO 40 POPS LOOK GOOD.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK CLOSE EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
IN SE LA INFLUENCE OF DEFORMATION ZONE FROM DECAYING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL GULF TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. IN 36-48 HOURS
MODELS CONVERGE ON SOLUTION OF SOME TYPE OF SHEAR AXIS FROM LOW PRES
IN ATLANTIC OFF DELMARVA PENINSULA...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO MIDDLE
GULF BETWEEN 27 AND 25N SO WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INITIALIZES ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE E GULF AT 08Z WITH
THE RUC MODEL SHOWING THIS SPOKE OF PVA MOVING E TO W THIS MORNING
NEARING MOBILE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ELY SFC-850 MB FLOW...ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS COASTAL AL AND W
FL SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO FORECAST AREA AROUND SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 POPS IN SE LA AS COVERAGE WILL
HAVE TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR TODAY BUT ETA/NGM CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT
SHOW THIS DRY AIR TOMORROW SO INCREASE TO 40 POPS ON FRI.
IN EXTENDED FCST WILL KEEP POPS ON CHANCE CATEGORY WITH DIURNAL BIAS
AND WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PERSISTENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
MODELS AND MANUAL PROGS ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT ACROSS S PLAINS INTO
STATE. PRELIM NUMBERS BELOW...ZONES QUICK TO FOLLOW. THANKS SHV AND
LCH FOR AFDS AND WRK ZNS.
SHV 90/70/90/69 5231 MLU 90/71/90/69 4242 LCH 87/73/88/73 5341
BTR 90/70/89/71 3142 MCB 89/69/89/68 3142 BIX 90/73/88/73 3142
.NEW...NONE.
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE
13
FXUS64 KSHV 100741 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999
MAIN FCST QUESTION OVERNIGHT CONCERNS TSRA/SHRA CHANCES.
FRONTAL BNDRY FROM NORTH CNTRL MN INTO ERN NEB ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY IN
VCNTY OF FRONT WITH BEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND UPR LVL
SUPPORT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET OVER NRN MN...PER 00Z RUC 250
DIVERGENCE. MCS OVER NRN MN MOVING QUICKLY NE INTO WRN ONTARIO.
ANOTHER MCS WAS LOCATED OVER NW IA...ALSO MOVING TO THE NE. HIGHEST
CAPE VALUES LINGER OVER NRN WI WITH VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG PER LAPS
ANALYSIS. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT OF MCS THROUGH WRN WI
TOWARD WRN UPR MI ALONG 850-300 THICKNESS CONTOUR AND FCST MBE
PROPAGATION. FRONT ALSO WL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH 1000-850
NW FLOW OF 15-25 KNOTS. WL MENTION SCT TSRA/SHRA OVER WEST PORTION
OF CWA LATE...AFT 08Z BUT LEAVE REST OF AREA DRY.
TEMPS GENEARLLY ON TRACK WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN 59 TO 65 RANGE
AND CONTINUED SSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 100224 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER CLOUD ALSO CREEPING SOUTH AND WEST PER
IR FOG CURVE. LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIRMASS ALONG A LINE FROM
HGR-DCA-ORF.
RUC INDICATES FRONT TO MAKE SOME INROADS ACROSS VA THIS MORNING.
TIMING SUGGESTS FRONT TO REACH OUR FAR ERN ZONES BY 15 UTC...THEN
BLAST OF JUNE SUN TO NEUTRALIZE ADVECTIONS UNTIL AFT SUNDOWN. THIS
IN MIND...THINK TEMPERATURES ACROSS CWA TO EASIALLY REACH MOS MAX
FCST. MTN ZONES COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR WED READINGS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE PLUME OF SFC-850 THETA E FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE PROVIDING THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR
DEEP CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIFTING MECH FOR DEEP CONV
COULD COME FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...DIFF HEATING
AND OR FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. WITH THE INGREDIENTS THERE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FCST OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND TNGHT.
PWAT FCST FROM BOTH THE ETA AND NGM ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5
TO 1.75...SO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE THERE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
OF ALL THE MODELS THE ETA WAS THE WETTEST WITH A QPF OF 1.25 FOR ROA
BTWN 00 AND 06 UTC. THE NGM WAS MORE RESERVED AND ONLY SHOWED ABOUT
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
AFTER SUNSET...CAA TO TAKE OVER IN THE BL AND EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL
DOWN A BIT ESP OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD WAKE UP TO OVC
CONDITIONS FRI MORNING. NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE
CLOUDS TO MIX ON FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE FROM
THE NE SO PLACES LIKE DANVILLE...MARTINSVILLE AND ROANOKE COULD BE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FAR WEST...RICHLANDS AND
TAZEWELL...WHERE SHALLOW EASTERLY AIR MAY FAIL TO REACH. ANOTHER
CONCERN ON FRIDAY MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
FAR WEST IN THE VCNTY OF WHAT WILL BE THE STALLED BACK DOOR FRONT.
MAY INTRODUCE CHC POPS THERE AFT I COORDINATE WITH CRW.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
PM
FXUS71 KRLX 100654 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NE GULF S OF AQQ
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN SAME VICINITY. VORT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CENTER HELPING TO TOUCH OFF A GOOD DEAL OF
CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE ST GEORGE ISLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
GOING UP INLAND OVER GULF/FRANKLIN COUTNIES. A FEW MORE SHOWERS A
STARTING TO FORM ACROSS S GA N OF A VLD-ABY LINE.
QUICK LOOK AT 12Z RUC AND BOTH 00Z AND 03Z ETA SHOWS UPPER SUPPORT
AND DEEPEST LAYER OF MOISTURE ROTATING INTO SE GA AND THEN NW ACROSS
THE STATE INTO CENTRAL AL. CULF VORT DRIFTS NORTHWARD BUT I BELIEVE
THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
INTO S AL. THERE SHOULD BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY IN BIG BEND ZONES
WITH ONLY TRIGGER BEING THE SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD STAY NEAR THE
COAST WITH THIS E-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME.
UNMODIFIED 12Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWS LI OF -6 AND CAPE OF OVER 2700
J/KG. THERE IS ALSO MUCH LESS OF A CAP THAN YESTERDAY. WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONT BEING A TRIGGER NEAR THE COAST AND SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
DEEP MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...BIG BEND CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY AND
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHAVE POPS HERE ALTHOUGH DID
CONSIDER IT.
TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE DESPITE CLOUDS. FWC/S HAVE BEEN
DOING WELL WITH MAXT/S AND WILL NUDGE TEMPS TOWARD THESE NUMBERS
TODAY..IE AROUND 90.
MAW
FXUS62 KTBW 101413 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWING AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THIS WAS
ADVECTING SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
TAMPA AND MIAMI SOUNDINGS. MEAN PARCEL LIFT FOR PROXIMITY AFTERNOON
SOUNDING THOUGH STILL SHOWED A QUITE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPE
OVER 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 7. ALSO NOTABLE IS THAT
STEERING FLOW WAS MORE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE A LITTLE LATER THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO PLANNING ON TWEAKING THE SECOND PERIOD OF COASTAL
ZONES TO MENTION AN EVENING RAIN CHANCE DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
PRESENCE OF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH SHOULD NOT INHIBIT
CONVECTION...OVER THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.
MARINE...WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST GULF STILL HAVING SLIGHT EFFECT
ON LOW LEVEL WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD BOUNDARY OFFSHORE THAT
MARKED DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. NOT SEEING GRADIENT
THAT SUPPORTS MUCH OVER 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SO MINOR CHANGES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ARE PLANNED.
.MLB...NONE.
LASCODY
FXUS72 KMFL 101310 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1035 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
TROPICAL MOISTURE IMPORT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
A SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWED WINDS CONVERGING AT THE GA
COAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS OVER SOUTHEAST GA...
AND RELATED TO A 500-MB VORTCITY MAXIMUM THERE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST
RUC MODEL FORECASTS. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT EXPANDS
OVER SOUTH GA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED
VEERING WINDS UP TO AROUND 400 MB. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
...COMBINED WITH LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED BY LIFTED INDEXES AND
CAPES...SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING TOO
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
ZONE FORECAST UPDATES.
.ATL...NONE.
SCHAUB
FXUS72 KFFC 100709 COR ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO ADD ON TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
925 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
WITH MATURING MVC MOVING INTO SW IA PER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY,
PLUS RUC FORECAST LOOKING QUITE GOOD, HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND FFA TWO
MORE TIERS OF COUNTIES S. 1 AND 3 HR VALUES ARE STILL QUITE LOW,
ESPECIALLY IN AUDUBON, CASS, JASPER, AND POWESHIEK COUNTIES.
CONVECTION IN SW/SC IA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING MVC STRUCTURE
WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE LINE S OF VORT CENTER AND MATURING
DEFORMATION FIELD ON ITS NC/NW FLANK WITH MDT RAINFALL. THIS MAY
NOT PRODUCE FLOODING, BUT WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. RUC IS FORECASTING NEXT VORT TO SWING OUT OF NE WITH
DECENT 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN IA. SOUTHERN END OF THIS
AREA IS PRONE TO GENESIS OR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHERLY
INFLOW TRYING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THE
BOUNDARY.
ALSO GETTING REPORTS OF 50 MPH WINDS ON THE LINE IN TAYLOR COUNTY,
AND OPERATOR/88D DERIVED BROAD MESO DETECTED WITH THE STORM.
.DSM...FFA ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>39-044>050-057>062-070>075.
$$
KULA
FXUS63 KDMX 100824 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
335 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW TO HANDLE
THE SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE MODELS AND HOW TO CORRELATE THOSE
FEATURES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LATEST LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL WELL ESTABLISHED OVER KY WITH A CONTINOUS STREAM OF SHORTWAVES
RIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF SDF TO AREAS WEST OF
LEX. THIS FEATURE BEARS WATCHING FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT TIME...KLVX RADAR EVEN
SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KY WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THAT BOUNDARY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...06Z RUC IS PICKING UP ON AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEAR THERE...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
US THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODELS DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES TAKING PLACE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
THETAE RIDGES AND THE WEAK BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...LITTLE OR NO CAP AND BOUNDARIES LYING AROUND.
TEMPERATURE WISE WILL GO WITH THE CONSISTENT FWC NUMBERS...BUT WE
WILL OPEN THE RANGE A BIT AND GO 90 TO 95 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND 70.
.SDF...NONE.
COX
FXUS63 KPAH 100700 ky
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROF AXIS
HUGGING THE AL BORDER. 12Z RUC INDICATES VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
THIS TROF WWD TODAY AS A CENTRAL TX TROF EASES TOWARD WRN LA BY 00Z.
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
BATTLE FOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. MORNING RAOBS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE THAN YESTERDAY BUT WHERE THE RAINS OCCUR...HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW NW STORM MOTIONS
THAT ARE EXPECTED.
.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
FXUS74 KJAN 100835 ms
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT THU JUN 10 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA AND BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH AND THEN SURPASS NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVES CROSSING FORECAST AREA TODAY.
ONE EXITING EXTREME SRN NV THIS MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ENTERING NW
NV AT 15Z. 12Z RUC AND ETA WEAKEN THE NRN SHORT WAVE AS IT SWINGS
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
DRYING THROUGH THE DAY IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NRN NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES AND THIS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE NGM CONTINUES TO
HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AND HAVE UPDATED LINCOLN COUNTY ZONE TO REFLECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS TODAY BASED ON THE ABOVE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED WITH EVERYTHING IN GOOD ORDER.
NRN SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PREVENTING
CLEAR/SUNNY FORECAST OTHERWISE...WARM/DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
NEMETH
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 100933 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR SE ZONES. VORT LOBE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NY WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH NVA OVR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LVL DRYING IN EASTERLY FLW WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN NE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ATTM. ALY 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LVL
MOISTURE BUT WITH EXPECTED DRYING AND STRONG LATE JUNE SUN EXPECT
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO
BECOMING PS IN MOST ZONES. ACROSS CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE CONVECTION
FIRED THIS MORNING WILL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS FOR A SHRA OR TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. BUF 12Z SOUNDING UNSTABLE AND ETA/RUC MODELS INDICATE
LOW LVL MST CONV IN THIS AREA. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
.BGM...NONE.
RRM
FXUS71 KBUF 101358 ny
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND LATER PERIOD CLD
TRENDS. MODELS EARLY IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING
UP IN LATER PERIODS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA FROM PAST PERFORMANCE.
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS FINALLY CLEARED FA VIS AWIPS (YEAH)
COMPOSITE LOOP. FROM IR LOOP CI/AC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES OVR FAR
EASTERN ZONES WITH REMAINDER OF FA CLEAR. SW OVR SASK LIFTING NE AND
SHOULD NOT AFFECT REGION. LATEST RUC CONSISTENT WITH 00Z MODELS IN
CONTINUING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS ENTIRE FA. OTHER THAN SCT CU
SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH DRY COLUMN AND BROAD SCALE SUBS. WK CAA
CONTINUES TODAY AS WELL AS SUB 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS SPREADING EAST FOR
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. FWC/FAN PROG TEMPS CLOSE AND REFLECT
THIS TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVR REGION FOR A QUITE NIGHT. CENTRAL PLAINS
S/W LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF FA AM EXPECTING ONLY CLOUD
COVER MAINLY OVR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS REFLECTED BY ETA RH AND
OMEGA FIELDS.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KFGF 100135 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
NOT MUCH TIME FOR DISC THIS AM DUE TO ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZONES AND AFP TO BRING IN LINE WITH CURRENT
TRENDS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SWD A TAD WITH BUBBLE HIGH OVR NRN OK.
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN MORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY THRU THE AFTERNOON /SEE
SWOMCD #588 FOR FURTHER DETAILS/. WILL LOOK AT ANOTHER UPDATE TO
POSSIBLY INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER A BIT OF TIME TO LOOK AT
METEOROLOGY OF SITUATION AND SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE SVR WX POTENTIAL FOR LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING..ESP
SOUTHWEST WHERE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WILL BE LURKING
UNDERNEATH REGION OF RATHER STRONG ALONG STREAM SHEAR AT H3 PROGGED
BY 12Z RUC.
MILLER
.OUN...
OK...FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2130 UTC (430 PM CDT) OKZ 011-012-017>019.
TX...NONE.
FXUS64 KTSA 101544 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MDT THU JUN 10 1999
THIS MORNINGS FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD WITH PRECIP TRENDS HANDLED
WELL. PROBLEM IS TEMPS. wARMER IN EASTERN CWA WHERE PRECIP MORE
SCATTERED. COOLER IN WEST WITH MORE CONTINUOUS RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW AS COOL AND WET
RULES THE REST OF THE DAY MOST PLACES. UPPER DYNAMICS FROM 12Z ETA
AND RUC SHOW ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP FORMING FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND SPREADING INTO THE WEST.
.UNR...NONE.
SEARLES
FXUS63 KABR 101555 sd
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER KANSAS/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM JUST SOUTH OF LAWTON TO SOUTH OF
CHILDRESS TO WEST OF AMARILLO TO NEAR DALHART. HIGHER MOISTURE IS
POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO
INSERT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KCDS AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DRYLINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND 12Z RUC/ETA DO NOT
SHOW THIS FEATURE MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS THE 00Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED
IT MAKING IT TO NEAR KLBB. EXPECT DRYLINE TO BE NEAR THE STATELINE
OR OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO ATTM
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
NEAR THE DRYLINE BY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
95 KNOT 25H SUBTROPICAL JET FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES/NORTHERN BAJA
TO FAR WEST TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELD IN LEFT EXIT REGION
OF JET WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALSO
INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. WILL NEED TO INSERT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THIS EVENING. AIRMASS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THE AREA ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS WITH LIFTED INDEX
BETWEEN -5 AND -9 DEGREES AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG.
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN AN INCREASINGLY
UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. 12Z ETA/03Z MESOETA SHOWS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING OR BACK
BUILDING STORMS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY
RICH MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
WILL INSERT MENTION OF THIS TONIGHT FOR ROLLING PLAINS.
MOISTURE HOLDING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 AT MARFA. CUMULUS ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO EAST OF
THE BIG BEND ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
BIG BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
.LBB...NONE.
TINSLEY
FXUS64 KMAF 101627 tx
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 AM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
WILL LOWER POPS IN THE CROSSROADS TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE AS PER
LATEST AVAILABLE DATA. ACTIVITY IS LESS THAN YDA AND CU FIELD AT
THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
VISIBLE SHOWS NOTABLE BOUNDARY OVER RIO GRANDE PLAINS NEAR
LRD...POSSIBLY DUE TO WK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN MNTS OF OLD MEXICO
LAST NIGHT AND UPSLOPE FLOW (MSAS ALSO SHOWS ISODROSOTHERMAL
GRADIENT...BUT WITH LACK OF DATA OUT THERE WHO KNOWS FOR SURE).
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OUT OF THIS.
OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY NOT MESS WITH TEMPS OR MUCH ELSE AS THEY
SEEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS. MAY DECIDE TO KEEP ISOLD
IN KCRP AREA DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ADVERTIZED BY RUC...THOUGH CU
FIELD OUT THE DOOR LOOKS QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE.
.CRP...NONE.
86/GW
FXUS64 KSJT 101543 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN FL
235 PM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
CURRENTLY...88D SHOWING ONLY WDLY SCT TSTMS ALONG THE SEABRZ BOUNDARY
FROM N PINELLAS TO S CITRUS COUNTY. ACTIVITY MOVING NNE 10-15 MPH.
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATING THAT WEST CST SEABRZ HAS PUSHED AT LEAST 10 MILES
INLAND FROM TPA SOUTH...STABILIZING THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. UPPER
LEVEL CIRC OVER NCENT GULF PULLING UPPER CLDS/CIRRUS TO THE NW BACK INTO
THE GULF.
REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING...RUC PLACES BEST SFC CONVERGENCE DOWN THE
CENTER OF THE STATE AS WSW FLOW MEETS ESE FLOW FROM THE EAST COAST. NOT
MUCH EVIDENCE OF EAST COAST SEABRZ MOVING WEST. HOWEVER...NNE MOVEMENT
OF STORMS SHUD STILL PLACE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTN
AND EVENING FROM POLK NORTH. THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS PLACE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. SOME STRONG STORMS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 25-30KTS. BY LATER TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S DUE TO RAINFALL.
FRI..MODELS STILL TRYING TO PUSH UPPER CIRC OVER THE CENT GULF NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE GULF AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 36-48 HRS. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST...THE SFC
RDG OVER THE WESTERN ATLC MOVES SSE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THIS SEEMS TO
INCREASE A SE PRESS GRAD...HELPING TO KEEP WEST COAST SEABRZ PINNED CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THIS WILL MEAN BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
WEST COAST DURING MID TO LATE AFTN. AGAIN...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS
OVER ALL THERMODYNAMICS CHANGE LITTLE.
SAT...ETA INDICATES SOME DRYING MOVING INTO N FL ON BACK SIDE OF DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OFF CARLONIA COAST...BUT NGM/AVN DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...AS SE FLOW KEEPS GOOD CHC POPS COASTAL...AND CHC INLAND.
MODEL TEMPS OK.
BKV 89/70 90/71 1535 TPA 90/72 90/72 -535 LAL 92/70 91/71 2434
FMY 91/70 92/71 -323
MORALES
FXUS62 KMLB 101834 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
245 PM CDT THU JUN 10 1999
MAIN DETAIL IS HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL. WELL DEFINED MVC WAS
NOT HANDLED BY THE ETA OR NGM VERY WELL, IF AT ALL. SO THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN DELAYING NEW PRECIP FOR A COUPLE HOURS ANYWAY AS DRY SLOT
HAS WORKED INTO CENTRAL IOWA WITH 500 MB 40 KT DEPICTED AT SLATER.
HOWEVER, SETUP CONTINUES FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE NE WITH
RECOVERY OF WARM SECTOR TRYING TO GET BACK INTO SW IA. MOISTURE IS
POOLING AGAIN ALONG BOUNDARY IN IA/MO BORDER WHICH MAY ALSO RESULT
IN NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. 850 MB WAVE IS DEPICTED BY
PROFILERS WITH SANGSTER CHART, PROFILERS AND RUC FRONTOGENESIS
KEEPING A DISTINCT THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IA CURRENTLY.
VIS IMAGES SHOWING THAT CU ARE DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE AIR OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS WHERE CONVECTION COULD TAKE OFF AT ANYTIME,
THEN ROTATE NE INTO SOUTHERN IA. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT DEVELOPMENT
OF A SHARS EPISODE IN WESTERN INTO NORTHERN IA WITH WARM CORE 500 MB
LOW AND DECENT VORTICITY OF 20-24 UNITS ROTATING INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN IA. THERE ARE SOME SIMILARITIES TO LAST YEAR'S BIG SHARS
EVENT OF 14 JUN 98 IN SW IA, AND ANY MERGING OF CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMA COULD REALLY MAKES THINGS UGLY. DEFORMATION PRECIP HAS
ALREADY ESTABLISED IN NE. FEEL THAT THIS COULD END UP OVER NORTHERN
IA, WITH MORE CONVECTIVE VIGOR LATER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS MORE
MOISTURE BACK N. SPEAKING OF MOISTURE, PWATS OFF GOES IMAGERY SHOW
1.5-2.0 INCHES OVER KS. IF THIS WERE NOT ENOUGH, RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT DIVERGENCE WILL BE SETTING OVER IA PERIODICALLY, TONIGHT
AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. GIVEN MORNING RAINFALL, AND 12Z FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS FORECAST RAINFALL, WILL CONTINUE FF WATCH AND
EXPAND TO SOUTHERN TIERS AS WELL. WILL DRY OUT THINGS NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NW FLOW SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
.DSM...FFA ALL OF DMX COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>39-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092
>097.
$$
KULA
FXUS63 KDMX 101420 AMD ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT THU JUN 10 1999
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
AN ERODED WEAK COLD FRONT RESTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA FROM W TO E
THIS AFTN. SOME MID LVL DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE FA AND OUR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WAS PROVIDING THE CWA WITH WARMING SFC TMPS WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. PCGRIDD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOW
LIS AROUND MINUS 6 WITH HI TTOTALS AND K INDEX VALUES OVER OUR
WESTERN AND S CWA. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND WITH MID LVL COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE A FEW LATE
AFTN TSRA THAT MAY CONT INTO THE EVENING. SOME MAY BECOME STRONG. THE
ETA/NGM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT.
THE DAY ONE QPF THAT EXTENDED TO 12Z FRIDAY SHOWED A BULLSEYE OF
TWO INCH RAINFALL OVER NW KANSAS/SW NE. ALSO THE NEW EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SHOWED AN AREA NEAR OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THE
ERODED FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE CWA...BOTH THE ETA/NGM AND THE
LATEST RUC INDICATE A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER NE COLORADO THIS
EVENING WHICH SHUD DEEPEN. THIS DISTURBANCE/5H VORT MAX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z/12Z TONIGHT AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
VERY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA VALUES. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MID LVL VORT
AND WARM THCKNS ADVTN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND WITH
AN APPROACHING 2H/RRQ JET EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. ETA QPF TOTALS WERE MUCH HEAVIER THAN BOTH
THE NGM/ETA SHOWING ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF PCPN ACROSS THE N/C CWA
BY 12Z. AFTER SFC ANALYSIS...ETA WAS THE BETTER MODEL ANALYZING WHERE
THE PCPN WAS OCCURIING. BELIEVE THAT PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY/SHUD
RECEIVE THESE AMNTS. WITH THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
OUR CWA AREAS MAY HAVE SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING WITH RIVERS FILLING
UP WITH WATER. THE VORT MAX WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA DURING
FRIDAY MORNING AND SHUD KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECAILLY
ACROSS THE E CWA.
THIS WEEKEND HAS AS 5H/RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST
THAT SHUD BEGIN TO DRY THE FA OUT. WITH INCREASING 5H/HGHTS AND
THCKNS EXPECT AFTN TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S. STILL...WITH LEFT
OVER MID LVL MOISTURE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TSRA
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
.GLD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042-NEZ079>081-COZ090>092
VPAPOL
FXUS63 KGLD 102059 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999
...UPDATE FOCUSES ON DETAILS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
MOIST SYNOPTIC SCALE SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CWA...WITH SFC
CLD FRNT EXTDS FM W LK SUPERIOR INTO EXTREME W WI AT 15Z. 15Z RUC
RESOLVES WK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW OVR WI ASSOC WITH WEAK
CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL RIPPLE NE INTO CENTRAL CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS SLOWLY EAST REACHING EAST CWA SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LOW CAPES...SVR
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. ONLY THREAT WILL BE FOR TRAINING OF PULSE
STORMS OVR SE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL. 15Z RUC SUPPORTS
INCREASING FOCUS OF CONVECTION OVR E CWA WITH 850 THETA-E MAX OF
330K FUNNELING N FM E WI...INCREASING SFC CONV...AND INCREASE UPPER
LEVEL DIVG IN 300-200MB LAYER BY 00Z.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KMQT 100844 mi
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT THU JUN 10 1999
SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE BRINGING WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...MINOR SHORT WAVE CROSSING NRN NV THIS AFTERNOON...EASILY
IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND DEPICTED WELL BY RUC/ETA MODELS.
MODEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE HELPED
FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NEAR THE NRN LINCOLN
COUNTY BORDER. UPSTREAM...MODERATE CU FIELD OVER NRN NYE COUNTY BUT
NO THUNDERSTORMS AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THIS AREA
FROM THE W.
OVERALL NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS AND PREFER THE ETA AS IT
INITIALIZED ALL FEATURES WELL AND IS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH IT/S
PREVIOUS RUNS. NRN NV SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF MAJOR STORM IN THE ERN PAC AND GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION THEN CONTINUES ACROSS WRN STATES SAT AND SUN SIGNALLING
AN END (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO THE PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH. ETA
SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH NGM/AVN ON AMOUNT OF UPPER TROUGHING FORECAST
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. BOTH NGM/AVN DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING NRN BAJA BY 00Z SAT BUT EVEN IF THEY ARE CORRECT THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX.
WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...1000-500 MB THICKNESS
RISE ABOUT 30 METERS EACH DAY WITH CORRESPONDING 2-3 DEGREES OF
WARMING AT THE SURFACE. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NV TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM
THE ETA/AVN DO NOT SUGGEST IT WILL BE THICK SO WENT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY FORECAST NRN AREAS AND CLEAR/SUNNY ELSEWHERE. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS (15-25 MPH) MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS.
MRF/ECMWF/UKMET IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING GULF OF AK TROUGH AND
WRN RIDGE INTACT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. RESULT IS CONTINUED DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEMETH
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 102146 nv