000
FXUS62 KMLB 160720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY...
...COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED TODAY AS WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH A FASTER DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SEA BREEZE. E-W COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND SUNSET. SHRA GENERATION
HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT OR MISS THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS WITH THIS
COLLISION SO WILL LEAVE POPS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET AS THESE BOUNDARIES
INTERACT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT REACHING
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOS POPS SEEMED A LITTLE
TOO HIGH SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE AND ONLY INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE LOW/MID 60S TONIGHT.
TUE...COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NNE/NE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE POST
FRONTAL CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING ACROSS NRN AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO SRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH. RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
OVERALL...THOUGH ANY RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOMED. LARGE HIGH TEMP
RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S IN DAYTONA BEACH WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE LWR 80S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WHICH
SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MORNING SUNSHINE.
TUE NIGHT/WED...NAM MODEL IS QUICKER TO DRY AREA OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES TWD S FL WHILE GFS KEEPS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS
WET AT THE GFS BUT WITH SOME MID LVL SUPPORT WILL HAVE LOW SCT POPS
FOR SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SRN BREVARD
COUNTY THROUGH WED. LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH NE FLOW AND EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. HIGHS MID 70S
COAST AND UPPER 70S INTERIOR.
THU...MID LVL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW. SHOULD BE PTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH MID-UPR 70S
COAST TO NEAR 80 INTERIOR.
FRI-MON...MID LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ON FRI
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLC ON SAT. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE PROGD
SO WILL INSERT A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. SURGE OF N-NE
FLOW EXPECTED FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TO ENE/E ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MID LVLS WILL BE DRY BUT ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE
FOR SOME ATLC SHOWERS TO APPROACH THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY FRI AFTN/SAT WITH HIGHS HELD MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH
THE STRONG FETCH OF NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...SWELLS ARE FORECAST
TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AT THE BEACHES WITH HEAVY SURF POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AREA OF STRATUS STREAMING ONSHORE FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL IMPACT A FEW NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY KLEE AND PERHAPS INTO KSFB AND KMCO WITH CIGS AROUND
FL008-010. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO CREATE TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS THROUGH 12-13Z THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME VFR CONDS
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL NEAR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS OVER
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS AOB 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS AOB 15 KTS. NNE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK WITH NE SWELL
OFFSHORE. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY N-NE WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-10 FT OFFSHORE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL RH CONCERNS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MIN RH
VALUES NEAR 40 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE COUNTY FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL KEEP MIN RHS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUE...BUT QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 72 60 74 / 20 30 10 10
MCO 64 78 62 78 / 20 30 10 10
MLB 64 77 65 76 / 10 30 20 20
VRB 64 79 66 77 / 10 30 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 160201 AAA
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE MONDAY...
SEA BREEZE COLLISION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE INTERIOR BUT NO SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. SO WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE EVENING SHOWERS. GFS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR GETTING PULLED
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF STREAM.
MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH S/SW FLOW TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST. LIKE TODAY...THE TREASURE COAST WILL SEE THE SEA BREEZE
FIRST...AND VOLUSIA COUNTY WILL BE THE LAST. THIS MAY ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 80S ONCE AGAIN ALG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SEA
BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER SOUTH OF THE CAPE AS OFFSHORE
FLOW DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM
DURING THE DAY AND WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THRU 00Z/17. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS 14Z-17Z MLB/VRB.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIG CHANGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 81 61 75 / 20 10 20 20
MCO 65 84 63 79 / 20 10 20 20
MLB 65 84 63 78 / 10 10 20 20
VRB 64 83 63 79 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/HAGEMEYER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 151748
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
148 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE MONDAY...
...COOL FRONT MON NGT-TUE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW REACHING INTO INDIAN RIVER COUNTY AND MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER. NEED TO
WATCH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE SAME SYNOPTIC SETUP AS SATURDAY...EXPECTING AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND...COLLIDE WITH THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS FROM OKEECHOBEE TO EASTERN ORANGE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER THE SEA BREEZE
COLLAPSES MID TO LATE EVENING. WINDS TO DIE DOWN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LAND BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST MELBOURNE
SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS...THERE COULD BE A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES MELBOURNE TO FORT PIERCE AS THE LAND BREEZE MAY PULL
SOME COOLER AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
MONDAY...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW KNOWN TO HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THEIR NORMAL VALUES THEREFORE...EXPECTING MONDAY MORNING LOWS
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL. AGAIN...SAME SYNOPTIC
SCALE SETUP IN PLACE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IT SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND PRODUCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FROM OKEECHOBEE TO EASTERN ORANGE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
MON NIGHT-TUE...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING
EARLY MON EVENING FROM THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH HALF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON
TUE. HOWEVER...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT JET DIVERGENCE WILL BE PULLING
WELL OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK.
HENCE...THE PROSPECTS WILL BE LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. A FEW LUCKY SPOTS SHOULD GET A BRIEF MON
EVENING OR TUE AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR...SO WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WED-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH FLOW VEERING TO ONSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER
CHANCE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WED AND DRY THINGS OUT FOR THU (THOUGH
GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN
GULF). ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE OFF THE CAROLINAS
THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRI.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE N/NNE FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING TO THE LWR-MID 70S ACROSS N CSTL SECTIONS. EXPECT ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS TO ALSO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO START THE
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SAT-SUN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC SAT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO START TO PUSH
ONSHORE BY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
INTERIOR...ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KOBE-KISM-KDAB...
WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS MIDNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHEN AREAS OF MIST/FOG SHOULD FORM.
&&
.MARINE...NBDC AND SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD
SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS END DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MARINE FORECAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
TUE-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SCENARIO. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
TUE SO DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE EAST ON WED AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN
THU SO THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT NORTHEAST SWELLS TO AROUND 6
FEET SHOULD LINGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE WATERS ON FRI AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT
THROUGH FRI. WINDS SHOULD REACH TO 15 MPH ON TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. NO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED SO
THE SHOWERS THAT WE DO GET WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE EXTREME
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 81 61 75 / 20 10 20 20
MCO 65 84 63 79 / 20 10 20 20
MLB 65 84 63 78 / 10 10 20 20
VRB 64 83 63 79 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 151354
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...
MORNING FOG BURNT OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...730AM...AND
TEMPERATURES RISING QUICK NICELY. STILL EXPECTING THAT THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTERACT OVER THE INTERIOR FROM AROUND OKEECHOBEE TO EASTERN ORANGE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STILL A GOOD CALL.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST AREAS...ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM KOBE-KISM-KDAB... WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COLLIDE WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHEN AREAS OF
MIST/FOG SHOULD FORM.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT
SEAS WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST/NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. EXPECT THE SEA BREEZES TO FORM INITIALLY OVER
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THERE IS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
THEN WORK ITS WAY UP THE COAST TO VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES/WATERS LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY THEN DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW INTO MID WEEK WILL KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 150717
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...
...COLD FRONT MON NGT-TUE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS WHAT
EXISTED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
OCCUR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S INTERIOR/LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR ECSB DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH FARTHER PROGRESSION INLAND EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. WINDS WILL EXIST OUT OF THE S/SE AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WEST-EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED NEAR SUNSET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. MODEL QPF INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THESE COLLIDING SEA BREEZES HOWEVER QUESTION REMAINS
EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CLOUDS FROM SEA
BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED PATCHY FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE MORNING
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL SW FLOW ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN SECTIONS WITH
SLOW INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND VERY LATE AFTN/EVENING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY AND METRO ORLANDO TO VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS FROM AROUND IN THE LOWER 80S BEACHES TO MID 80S
INTERIOR. WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR EVENING ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS THAT SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY TWD THE COAST NORTH OF MELBOURNE.
SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. 00Z GFS LOOKS A BIT FAST WITH FRONT
AND WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE ON SPEED WITH SLOWER NAM MODEL. EXPECT
LOW LVL WINDS TO BECOME NE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE AFTN
HOLDING HIGHS IN MID 70S ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COAST AND AROUND 80
ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THOUGH COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WED-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH FLOW VEERING TO ONSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER
CHANCE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WED AND DRY THINGS OUT FOR THU (THOUGH
GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN
GULF). ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE OFF THE CAROLINAS
THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRI.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE N/NNE FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING TO THE LWR-MID 70S ACROSS N CSTL SECTIONS. EXPECT ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS TO ALSO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO START THE
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SAT-SUN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC SAT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO START TO PUSH
ONSHORE BY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
13Z IN ANY PATCHY FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. W-E COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND SUNSET WITH ISO
-SHRA POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE CREATING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT OFFSHORE TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE. THESE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY. S/SE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME
N-NE AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. AS FLOW VEERS
WED...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. SOME WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THU...WILL ALLOW FOR ONE GOOD BOATING DAY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AFTN INTO SAT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AROUND
40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY THEN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW INTO
MID WEEK WILL KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 62 83 62 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 86 65 86 63 / 10 20 10 20
MLB 83 65 84 62 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 81 64 83 63 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 150151
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...CONTINUED WARM AGAIN SUNDAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...
CURRENT/OVERNIGHT...THOSE COLORS WITNESSED ON 88D RADAR THIS EVENING
ARE ACTUALLY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES GENERATED FROM THE COLLISION OF
THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE
FIRST COLLISION OF THESE BOUNDARIES THIS YEAR...IT IS THE FIRST TIME
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERATED AS A RESULT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
POSSIBLY A TENTH OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY HANDLING THIS WITH A
NOWCAST AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FALL APART BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLLISION...THOUGH
EXPECT MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AND EARLY SUN
MORNING...MAINLY INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SUNDAY...(PREVIOUS)...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PULL A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND
AN INCH AND A QUARTER SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW
AS THERE IS LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO HELP TRIGGER
SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S INTERIOR COUNTIES AND MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST WHERE A LATE SEA BREEZE MAY FORM TO LIMIT HEATING FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL/COCOA BEACH SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...DUE TO WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ISOLD -SHRA/RA-- WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU LATE
EVENING. TERMINAL SITES POSSIBLY AFFECTED BY THIS LIGHT PCPN INCLUDE
KSFB/KMCO/KISM AND FURTHER SOUTH TO KOBE. SOUTHEAST WINDS (LIGHT)
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR VSBY`S POSSIBLE TWD`S SUNRISE DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND A
FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS SCT010-020.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT/SUN...SSE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS 10-15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL. SEAS 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE AND GENERALLY 3-4 FT NEARSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
40 PERCENT AND WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 MPH ON SUN.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 141755
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...CONTINUED WARM THROUGH MON...
...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...A DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...INITIALLY WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY INTERIOR AND
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AS VEERING FLOW WILL BRING DAYTIME INDUCED
DRIER AIR THAT WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHWEST FL ACROSS INTERIOR AND
COASTAL VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD. MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH SHOULD KEEP COASTAL
CONVERGENCE/LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF SHOWERS
COCOA BEACH/COCOA SOUTH UNTIL THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
AS FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST A
LITTLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PULL A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AS THERE IS LITTLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS
TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR COUNTIES AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST WHERE A LATE SEA
BREEZE MAY FORM TO LIMIT HEATING FROM CAPE CANAVERAL/COCOA BEACH
SOUTH.
MON-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AROUND OKEECHOBEE
ON MON WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS OUT OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA
INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MON NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUE.
DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE MID 80S ON MON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT POPS LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION.
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTION LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY MON
EVENING SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...
SHOULD PROLONG THIS SMALL RAIN CHANCE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
JET DIVERGENCE IS SHOWN PULLING EAST OF THE AREA TUE MORNING AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DRYING WORKING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE NAM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS DRYING SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WED-SAT (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...COOL NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL
CREATE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH NE SURGE STEADILY VEERING DURING A
HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW EPISODE AT MIDWEEK. DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPR
CYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FL ON THU WL POSE COOLER
TEMPS WITH SMALL AND GENERALLY UNMENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS
EARLY STAGE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN SYNOPTIC NW FLOW AROUND
FRI WILL RE- SUPPLY COOL AIR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE
COASTAL ROUTES AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING NOT STRONG ENOUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR
STRATUS CEILINGS BUT EXPECTING A FEW LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO
NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT/SUN...WILL NEED TO KEEP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS
HEADLINE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEN LOOK AT REMOVING IT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHEAST SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE ALLOWING
SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 5 FEET OR LESS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH DUE TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
WORKWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL BREAK
DOWN MON NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A NORTHEAST SURGE ON TUE SO DETERIORATING
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO WED AS
THE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THU BUT NORTHEAST SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE...THEN ANOTHER NORTHEAST
WIND SURGE IS INDICATED BY ABOUT LATE FRI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT AND WINDS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH THROUGH MON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH MON
NIGHT-TUE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH ANY
RESPITE FROM THE EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK WILL KEEP RH VALUES FROM
REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 85 62 82 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 63 86 63 85 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 65 85 64 83 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 65 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 141404
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1004 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...
...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...
...A DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT...RADAR DETECTING SPRINKLES OR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BREVARD SOUTH. EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS OVERLAND WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN TO THE LOWER LAYER. WILL ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST THEN NO SIG
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP AND PUSHES INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE AREAS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INLAND TO OKEECHOBEE...
OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES BEFORE THINNING OUT TO SCATTERED.
&&
.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS TO 6 FT OFFSHORE WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SEAS
TO 5 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES ESTABLISH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND WORK THEIR WAY INLAND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 40 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND WITH S/SE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 140736
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...UNSEASONALLY WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...
...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...
...A DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRAGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EXIST
OUT OF THE S/SE UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY WITH
LIMITED WESTWARD MOVEMENT FARTHER NORTH. MAY SEE SOME SEA/LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTIONS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER
AIRMASS OVER LAND AREAS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING. HOWEVER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THE
DAY.
WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 80S
FARTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. S/SE WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH FL PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH. S-SW FLOW SUNDAY WILL CREATE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A LATE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WILL ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN ZONE FORECAST ATTM.
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SE REGION IN GENERAL WILL SIGNAL
APPROACH OF AN UPR DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER N FL LATE MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUE. FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ESP OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TUE-SAT...POS TILTED UPR WAVE AND ASCD COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS AREA DURING TUE WITH SHOWERS BECMG CONCENTRATED OVER
SRN AREAS BY LATE TUE. COOL NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL CREATE
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH NE SURGE STEADILY VEERING DURING A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW EPISODE AT MIDWEEK. DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPR CYCLONE
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FL ON THU WL POSE COOLER TEMPS
WITH SMALL AND GENERALLY UNMENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS EARLY
STAGE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN SYNOPTIC NW FLOW AROUND FRI
WILL RE- SUPPLY COOL AIR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CREATE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT CREATING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...NE SWELLS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. NEARSHORE SEAS WILL EXIST AROUND 3-5 FT. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP SCEC HEADLINES GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. DECREASING SEAS/SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
LIKELY TO HEADLINE CRITERIA. LONG EVENT ONSHORE CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK WILL PRODUCE WIND/SEA HAZARDS FOR SMALL VESSELS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL NEAR 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND WITH S/SE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 62 85 59 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 85 62 87 61 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 81 65 85 63 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 80 64 84 63 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 140157
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DIURNAL SC FIELD HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DLM RIDGE OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A LIGHT
SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY/STABLE WITH PW
VALUES AOB 1.0" AND AN H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...LOW
LVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW AREAS OF LATE NGT FOG GO
DEVELOP ONCE THE BNDRY LYR DECOUPLES AREAS INVOF SMOLDERING FIRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRONE TO LOCALLY DENSE MIXTURE OF FOG/SMOKE.
WILL REFRESH THE WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECAST THIS EVENING...BUT NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES ARE NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES THROUGH 08Z. AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS DVLPG BTWN
08Z-09Z DUE TO BCBR/MIFG CONTG THRU 13Z. BCMG VFR BTWN 13Z-14Z.
&&
.MARINE...
A 4-5FT SWELL WILL IMPACT THE LCL ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT...WHILE A
WEAK PGRAD ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY
BREEZE. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL REMAIN FOR THE OFFSHORE LEG DUE
TO COMBINED SEAS IN THE 4-6FT RANGE. NO SIG CHANGES.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 131813
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
213 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TONIGHT...DIURNAL SC FIELD WILL THIN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. LGT
SE FLOW WILL VEER TWD SRLY...BUT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
BLYR TO DECOUPLE...WITH SOME LATE NGT FOG FORMING ACROSS THE CWA.
LOCATIONS INVOF SMOLDERING FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRONE TO
LOCALLY DENSE FOG/MIXTURE OF FOG/SMOKE.
SAT...MID/UPR RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/FLATTEN OUT AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE TOP OF IT. SFC PRESSURES LOWER TO THE NORTH
OF FLORIDA AS WEAK WAVES FORM ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BDRY. SRLY SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH SLGTLY HIGHER TD`S...LOCAL
AIR MASS WILL FEEL A TAD MORE SULTRY. TEMPS REACH THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN AREAWIDE UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS.
SAT NIGHT-MON...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FLATTENED AND SUPPRESSED
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. INFLUENCE OF
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
THE PERSISTENT WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
RAISING SURFACE DEW POINTS. VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 60S WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS...BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD START GENERATING
CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS START TO POP UP
BY MON AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...BASICALLY PERSISTENCE PLUS
A DEGREE OR TWO.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PATCHY GROUND FOG.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE LOW VISIBILITY CONCERNS NEAR SMOLDERING
WILDFIRES.
TUE-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...S/W TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH PUSH
TO DRAG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING EMBEDDED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH MAY
PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT FOR LIFT BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK
SO WILL KEEP POPS AS IS WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THIS IS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BUT IF
MOISTURE LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY AS WINDS BECOME
ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN
INTO LATE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN BY
THURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS DVLPG AT
MOST TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 13Z...OCNLY DROPPING TO IFR IN BCFG/MIFG.
&&
.MARINE...SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS TNGT/SAT WITH SLGT INCREASE IN SRLY WIND CHOP. COMBINED
SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT NR SHORE AND 5-6FT WELL OFFSHORE...SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STMT FOR THE 20-60NM LEGS.
SUN-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN ON TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTH THEN
VEERING TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR AND THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN.
BEFORE THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA...WINDS
SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT AND WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH ANY
RESPITE FROM THE EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 80 61 82 / 0 10 10 10
MCO 62 83 62 86 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 64 80 64 82 / 0 10 10 10
VRB 64 82 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 131417
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS PENINSULAR FL AND THE WRN ATLC
WITH STALLED QSTNRY FRONTAL BDRY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FL. RAOB AND
PROFILER WINDS SHOW LGT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MORNING RAOB
DATA SHOWS THE SUBSIDENCE CAP HGT VARIES FROM ABOUT H75-H80 AT JAX
/TBW TO AROUND H85-H90 AT XMR/MYNN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE CAP TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY DIURNAL SC FIELD TODAY. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE L80S MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH U70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE BARRIER ISLANDS.
CURRENT GRIDDED/TXT FCSTS LOOK FINE...NO CHGS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. GIVEN THE VARIATION IN SUBSIDENCE CAP HGT...WILL
LKLY SEE VARIATION IN DIURNAL SC DECK WITH OCNLY BKN CIGS BTWN
FL040-070.
&&
.MARINE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS OF 3-5FT NR SHORE AND 4-6FT
OFFSHORE CONTINUE. SWELLS WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT DANGER AT
LCL BEACHES TODAY...AND HWO/G-HWO SUITE HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS CONCERN
...GIVEN THE ONGOING SPRING BREAK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES EXPECTED TO STAY AOA 40 PERCENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CRISTALDI
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