AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 850 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2000 LATEST RUC DATA STILL INDICATING THAT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME HOURS FRI. BEST WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO W CENT IL NOT UNTIL AFT 12Z FRI TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EAST SHOULD STILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST PART. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALSO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS. WOULD EXPECT ERN AREAS TO SEE SIMILAR IF NOT COOLER LOWS AS WEST GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE WILL ADJUST THESE DOWNWARD. ZONES TO BE UPDATED SOON WITH ABOVE CHANGES. FRIEDERS il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 230 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000 CURRENT ANALYSES INDICATING THAT QUASISTATIONARY FRONT NEARING A KGLH-KCBM LINE AND MAY SAG JUST S OF HIGHWAY 82 THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING NWD LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE FRONT AND GROW DURING THE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OVERNIGHT MCS ACTION SHOULD PUSH NWD WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND MODELS ARE FAIRLY UNANIMOUS ON THIS SCENARIO. LATEST RUC/MESO ETA ALSO LIFT PRIMARY PRECIPITABLE WATER/RELATIVE HUMIDITY/850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXES NWD TO NEAR TN BORDER BY 12Z. FARTHER S...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 84 MAY HELP A FEW EVENING TSRA FORM BEFORE SUNSET HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING FOR VERY LONG. IN CENTRAL MS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BE SET TO INTERACT LATER IN THE EVENING KEEPING SOME ACTION GOING TO MIDNIGHT OR SO. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY ONLY TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO RELOAD WITH CONTINUED SLY FLOW BRINGING UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG SERN ATLANTIC COAST AS SUBSTANTIAL 500-300MB POSITIVE TILT TROF AXIS DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL US. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS AS THIS TROF DIGS SEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. INITIAL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM MAY OFFER THE AREA A 1-2" RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AVN INDICATING A SWATH OF PREFRONTAL 2.0" PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING CENTRAL MS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIDDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE WANE FROM N TO S. THAT LEAVES MEMORIAL DAY IN RATHER FINE SHAPE WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY(85-90) AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD SRN PLAINS RIDGE EWD FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL YIELD MORE SUMMER-PREVIEW TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITIES. 24-HR QPF DISCUSSION: HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWFA...IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER NE ZONES OF MS. ETA HANDLES RAINFALL PROGNOSIS BEST FOR NEXT 24 HRS - AVN APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE WITH RF AMOUNTS OVER E MS. STILL...NGM/ETA/AVN CRANKING OUT PW VALUES WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES FOR CWFA. WITH HEFTY DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND 70S...PROXIMITY OF NEAR-STATIONARY FRONT...AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER OUR NRN ZONES COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AREAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.01 TO 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS. RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES AS FRONT PULLS NE OUT OF AREA. PRELIM NUMBERS: JAN 72/91/73/93/70 21245 MEI 70/92/71/93/70 32245 .JAN... MS...NONE. AR...NONE. LA...NONE. ms SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 900 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2000 ...UPDATES PLANNED FOR ZONES AND STATE FORECAST... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD MONTANA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE OBS AND UPSTREAM RADARS ALSO INDICATE ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN FAR SOUTH OF BEAVERHEAD COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RUC AND NEW ETA CONFIRM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTION OF STATE AND LIMITED IN AMOUNT. WILL UPDATE TO CUT POPS AT MANY LOCATIONS AND REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK. MPJ GTF EB 045/065 041/073 045 101110 CTB BB 040/062 038/071 042 100000 HLN EB 048/066 044/075 045 102221 BZN WB 046/062 041/075 044 105531 WEY WE 038/057 033/068 036 105532 DLN EB 045/066 040/073 039 104321 HVR EU 042/066 039/076 045 100110 LWT WB 045/064 040/075 043 103520 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2000 ZONE GROUPS WILL BE REALIGNED TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO FIT CURRENT VARIATIONS IN CLOUDS, WINDS, AND TEMPS. THERMAL CONTRAST IS INCREASING ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM W CENTRAL TX ACROSS S OK, AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDS TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL OK, WHILE HEATING PROCEEDS FARTHER S. CLOUDS MAY TAKE MUCH OF AFTERNOON TO BREAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL OK, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING ZONE N AND NW OF THE SURFACE FRONT. BETTER CHANCES MAY BE FARTHER SE CLOSER TO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT, EVEN THOUGH CAP WILL BE STRONGER FARTHER S. CHANCES THEN DROP OFF AGAIN S OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WHERE FORCING WILL BE LESS AND CAP IS MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL CATEGORIES IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE KEPT E AND NE ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT, AS CLOUDS PREVENT MIXING AND PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT N-WARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC/ETA. WE ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS W AND N ZONES, AND ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN. 12Z ETA INDICATES RATHER COPIOUS RAINFALL TONIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS NW OF SURFACE FRONT. NGM ALSO IS RATHER GENEROUS WITH RAINFALL, BUT WITH A MAX FARTHER NE IN VICINITY OF SE KS. THIS LOOKS TOO FAR N, AS DOES THE NGM 12Z FRONTAL POSITION NEAR KS BORDER. NEW MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NCENTRAL OK. WE WILL TREND THAT WAY IN THE MORNING UPDATE; AFTERNOON PACKAGE MAY GO EVEN HIGHER. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG EVENING AHEAD. UPDATED ZONES OUT BY AROUND 1115L. 24 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 850 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2000 THERE IS STILL SOME VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS-AL AND GA ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS CWA AND CONTINUING ACROSS NE SC. UPPER SUPPORT WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND ALSO GOOD DIVG ALOFT IN NOSE OF UPPER JET POKING IN FROM NORTHWEST. STORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY UPDATE TIME. I SEE LITTLE GOING ON UPSTREAM... AND LATEST RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING EAST OF CWA BY LATE EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...I WILL DROP POPS FOR ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AND MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG IT ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .GSP...NONE. RBN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 1014 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2000 DISC: 13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES WITH A CDFNT TO THE S AND SW...TO OUR NW. WK HI PRES OFF THE FL CST. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF DEBRIS SPREADING ACRS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT THINNING ALREADY OCCURING...ESP SRN PTN. TEMPS...EVEN WITH THE HIGH CLDS...ALREADY OFF TO A FAST START THIS MORNING. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S N TO MID 80S S. TDS ARND 70 ACRS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. 00Z MODELS RUN ALNG WITH MORNING RUC SHOWING S/W TO MOV TO OUR N THIS MORNING ACRS NC...THEN ANOTHER S/W TO MOVE TWRD THE AREA LATER THIS AFT/EVNG IN BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT. VSBY SAT SHOWS SEVERAL BNDRYS FM OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION ACRS THE SE. WITH TDS ARND 70 ...WARM/HOT AFT TEMPS...MODERATE INSTABILITY WL CONT WITH CHC/GOOD CHC FOR AFT/EVEN SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE TRICK UP N WHERE CLD COVER HAS BEEN A BIT THICKER...BUT FOR NOW WL CONT WITH PROJECTED AFT HIGHS. SOME AREAS TO THE S MAY GO JUST ABOVE 95...SO WL MONITOR THRU ISSUANCE TIME FOR ANY SLIGHT INCREASE THERE...MAY JUST GO MID 90S. FCSTID = 77 CAE 93 67 89 67 / 40 30 20 20 AGS 94 67 90 66 / 40 30 20 20 SSC 93 67 88 67 / 40 30 20 20 OGB 94 67 89 67 / 40 30 20 20 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 837 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2000 BIG UPR LOW TO MOVE EAST ACRS EASTERN CANADA TONITE AND ON FRI. CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA TONITE AND FRI...BUT SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH TIME DURING THE DAY ON FRI. HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ON FRI. 21Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE U40S-M50S WITH A WEST- SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW (STRONGEST IN THE ST LAW VLY) PERSISTING OVRNITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA OVRNITE (BEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS). S/W TO MOVE ACRS NORTHERN NEW ENG TONITE. RUC CRANKING OUT SOME LT MEASURABLE PCPN ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OVRNITE. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE NW ACRS THE FA TONITE...FOLLOWED BY CAA ON FRI. NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRI. PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE WINTER THAN SPRING. ALL THAT/S MISSING FOR SN IS SOME COLDER AIR...BUT LET/S NOT THINK ABOUT THAT. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS SCT SHRA ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND A LARGER AREA OF PCPN ACRS CENTRAL NY STATE ATTM. BUFCAN SHOWS ONLY A FEW LT RETURNS UPSTREAM...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF CLDS UPSTREAM. MTNS SHOULD STAY OVC INTO THE OVRNITE PERIOD. WESTERN AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME BINOVC BY LATER ON FRI. CHANGED CHC WORDING FOR OVRNITE TONITE IN THE GOING ZFP TO SCT AND ADDED A SMALL POP TO SRN VT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMP/WIND FORECAST BASED ON SFC OBS TRENDS. ALL OTHER CHANCES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC. WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA AND THE 01Z OBS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 305 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2000 MCS RACED QUICKLY ACROSS FA THIS MORNING. AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON KFCX SHOWED A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE CORNER OF THE SCOPE. ANOTHER THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACRS OUR WESTERN SLOPES. LAPS LIS PLACED THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OF MINUS 2 ACRS CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ALL MODELS PLACED A WEAK VORT MAX ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ARD 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. NGM/AVN/RUC KEPT THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN ACRS NC. WATCHING AWIPS SAT LOOPS APPPEARS THAT S/W TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THUS...HAVE DECIDE TO INCLUDE CHC OF EVENING SHOWERS THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SFC OBS DEWPOINT READINGS INDICATED THAT DRIER AIR IS ALITTLE SLOWER DROPPING SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS FA. AVN/ETA ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT 36 HRS WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO IA WHEREAS THE NGM IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. SOME MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS WARM FRONT. WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE CLIPPED BY MCS REMAINS. FOR SAT...VARY AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FA ON SUNDAY. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT. .RNK. .VA...NONE. .WV...NONE. .NC...NONE. KK va WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 311 AM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000 KGJX 88D EXPERIENCING EQUIPMENT/COMMS PROBLEMS...CAUSING IT TO BE INTERMITTENTLY OFFLINE. RUC/SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE SHOW COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING EAST ACROSS WCNTRL UTAH. MINOR VORT MAX ASSCTD WITH THIS RESOLVED FAIRLY WELL IN PRIMARY MODELS. EXTRAPOLATION REVEALS LEADING EDGE ENTERING UT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 15Z AND WRN CO BEFORE NOON IF IT KEEPS CURRENT SPEED OF MOTION. ACTIVITY DIVIDED INTO TWO MAIN AREAS...ONE S OF SLC AND SECOND VCNTY OF CDC...BOTH MOVING DUE EAST. SRN FEATURE SHOWS ROTATION ASSCTD WITH A VORT MAX UNRESOLVED BY THE PRIMARY MODELS...OR BADLY POSITIONED MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH OVER AZ...AND ONLY HINTED AT IN RUC. NRN PCPN AREA ALSO SHOWING WEAKER ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS. THROUGH ECHO INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE DECREASING...BELIEVE THESE AREAS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD N THE ECHOES NOON...WTIH CLEARER AREA INBTWN FILLING IN. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY TDA /EMPHASIZING THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. FREEZING LVL CURRENT AT 13.5K FT AND PROJECTED TO LOWER TDA SO SMALL HAIL AGAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH TSTMS. AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THRU /BEFORE SUNSET/ LOWER ATMOS STABILIZES AND DRIES OUT...AS SHOWN IN TIME-HEIGHTS USING EACH MODEL. THE WEEKEND STILL ON TRACK TO BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DUE TO RIDGING. THEN MRF BREAKS RIDGE DOWN AND ALLOWS WEAK TROF TO CARRY PCPN INTO THE AREA MON AND TUE. CUOCO WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY. .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 939 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000 SCT -SHRAS IN THE ATY AREA AND EAST SHOULD BE OUT THE CWA BY 11 PM. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM WAA AND FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATELLITE... RADAR...AND SFC OBS SHOWING THE SHRAS AND TSRAS IN NEB LIFTING N AND E THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO C SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. RUC SHOWS S/W ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW LATER TONIGHT WITH WAA AND MEAN RH INCREASING. 7-50H LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C WITH THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT ACROSS C SD ARE EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS GOOD FOR C SD TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE SFC PRES GRAD TIGHTENS TONIGHT. SO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME BY MRNG. WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES. .ABR...NONE MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 850 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000 MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS TIMING OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. FIRST CONCERN IS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AFTER LOOKING AT RUC AND MESO-ETA DETERMINED THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB MSTR CONVENGENCE ALONG SECONDARY THETA-E GRADIENT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AT THIS LEVEL AND LESS FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS BACK EDGE OF PCPN MOVES TOWARD DIXON COUNTY. THUS WL WORD ZONES IN FAR SRN CWA WITH SHRA/TSRA ENDING BY LATER THIS EVENING. ATTN THEN SHIFTS TO AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN RELIED ON 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC. LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WL SURGE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. 850 DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE BY 10-15C OVERNIGHT IN NEB AND SRN SD. THIS QUICKLY MOVES THE THETA-E GRADIENT NORTH AS WELL. EXPECT THAT AS LLJ STARTS UP AND INTERSECT BNDY...CONVECTION IN WRN NEBRASKA WL BECOME ELEVATED WITH SRN PORTION EXPLODING WHILE NWRN PART DIMINISHES. EXPECT THIS MCS WL FOLLOW THE MAX THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SC SD AND THEN ALONG SD/NE BORDER TOWARD SUX. THIS WL MEAN MOST OF CWA...EXCEPT TOWARD GREGORY/CHARLES MIX COUNTIES...WON'T SEE CONVECTION UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF I-90 PCPN WL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED EXCEPT ALONG JAMES RIVER AS 850 BNDY IS LOCATED NEAR HON BY 12Z. SO HAVE LOWERED PCPN CHANCES TO SLIGHT N AND E OF LINE FROM BKX TO SIBLEY IA. WL KEEP SCT TSRA INTO KFSD ALTHO KFSD LOOKS TO BE ON THE NRN END OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN NERN CWA WHERE LESS PCPN IS EXPECTED. .FSD...NONE SCHUMACHER sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1043 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2000 OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHERN ALABAMA SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. RUC AND MESO-ETA SHOWING THIS FRONT RETREATING NORTHEAST SLOWLY DURING DAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW 1.5-1.75) ALONG WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF FRONT. SOME WARMING ALOFT AND DRYING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCE SW PORTION OF CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...CLOUDS...AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. .ATL...NONE. ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 945 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2000 MORNG SAT PICS SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AS PERSISTENT NWLY OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTS OVR BGM CWA. RUC FCST OF LOW LVL MSTR TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THRU 00Z AND WEAK CAA TO CONT. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SUNSHINE ON PERIPHERY OF LOW CLDS HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SC FILLING BACK IN. WILL GO WITH MSTLY CLDY FOR THIS AFTN AND SHAVE TEMPS BACK A BIT OVR MOST AREAS. IN FAR S ARND AVP THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE THIS MRBG SO WILL CONT MSTLY SUNNY FCST AND TEMPS LOOK GOOD THERE. .BGM...NONE. RH ny