FXUS62 KEYW 100108
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
910 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...KBYX 
DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE 
ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST AT 5 
TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONLY ABOUT THREE DEGREES 
OF COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST SURFACE 
WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. 

.SHORT TERM...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK ANTICYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE 00Z KEYW SOUNDING IS UNSTABLE AND 
MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER TWO INCHES. 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW 
FROM ABOUT 800MB TO 600MB FAVORS CUBAN CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD 
THIS EVENING...BUT CONVECTION OVER CUBA HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED 
WITHOUT PRODUCING NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DESPITE 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
TONIGHT IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP RAIN 
CHANCES NEAR JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WHICH 
IS AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...LACK OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES 
TONIGHT WOULD ALSO FAVOR POPS CLOSER TO JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES 
FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE ZONE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO 
DECREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT. 

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT AS THE 
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE SERVICE AREA. 
THE ONLY CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE EVENING ISSUANCE OF THE COASTAL 
WATERS FORECAST WILL BE TO DECREASE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 
DECREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT.  

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KMIA TO KEYW TWEB ROUTE AND 
AT BOTH KEYS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS AND IFR 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TWEB ROUTE TONIGHT. 
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED NEAR 
THUNDERSTORMS. 

&& 

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.......SD