CB-05-02FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Thursday, January 13, 2005
| Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2003 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the preliminary results of the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 31, 2005. |
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $349.4 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month and up 8.7 percent (±1.0%) from December 2003. Total sales for the 12 months of 2004 were up 8.0 percent (±0.2%) from 2003. Total sales for the October through December 2004 period were up 8.2 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2004 percent change was unrevised from +0.1 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.3 percent (±0.8%) from November 2004 and were 8.8 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 21.8 percent (±2.5%) from December 2003 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 14.3 percent (±3.6%) from last year.
The scheduled release dates for 2005 are as follows: January 13, February 15, March 15, April 13, May 12, June 14, July 14, August 11, September 14, October 14, November 15, December 13.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2004
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Dec(3) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 349,436 345,259 345,033 321,470 321,973 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 266,658 265,874 264,844 245,488 244,999 Retail ....................................... 316,052 312,027 311,819 290,477 290,909 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 86,345 86,365 82,422 82,134 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 82,778 79,385 80,189 75,982 76,974 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 75,258 72,111 72,995 69,026 70,026 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,954 8,758 8,843 8,415 8,438 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,578 8,594 8,503 8,302 8,232 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,163 6,118 5,860 5,861 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,431 2,385 2,442 2,371 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,738 31,354 31,178 28,040 28,163 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,869 27,696 24,711 25,046 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,016 44,844 44,644 42,604 42,589 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,303 40,188 40,002 38,288 38,235 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,847 2,857 2,740 2,737 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,208 17,178 17,109 16,610 16,519 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,632 14,581 14,064 14,076 447 Gasoline stations................................ 27,580 28,150 27,828 22,647 22,532 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 15,899 15,991 16,116 15,385 15,301 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 1,020 988 906 892 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,038 3,098 2,975 2,943 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,917 1,978 1,944 1,951 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,880 6,816 6,855 6,670 6,664 452 General merchandise stores....................... 43,195 42,902 42,734 40,366 40,214 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,927 17,899 17,913 17,705 17,711 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 25,003 24,821 22,661 22,503 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 21,437 21,289 19,237 19,118 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,566 3,532 3,424 3,385 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,302 9,480 9,371 8,894 8,907 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 18,924 18,575 18,449 16,562 16,376 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,501 11,566 10,585 10,434 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,384 33,232 33,214 30,993 31,064 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2004
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 12 month total % Chg. 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2004 from Dec(2) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code 2003 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 4,055,793 8.0 406,403 342,189 338,441 371,745 314,234 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 3,115,303 8.9 327,418 270,832 263,435 299,880 247,816 Retail ....................................... 3,664,750 7.8 372,618 310,585 304,563 340,752 284,444 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 94,272 83,358 128,415 90,264 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 940,490 5.0 78,985 71,357 75,006 71,865 66,418 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 855,223 5.0 71,796 64,323 67,812 65,299 59,942 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 54,089 56,710 56,208 51,058 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 7,034 7,194 6,566 6,476 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 104,800 7.0 10,915 9,608 8,808 10,182 9,105 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,083 4,757 4,981 4,753 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,525 4,051 5,201 4,352 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 101,867 7.7 13,994 9,490 7,848 13,403 8,994 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,976 5,525 10,085 6,623 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,514 2,323 3,318 2,371 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 368,264 14.7 28,792 30,142 31,417 25,425 25,578 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 27,507 28,499 23,055 23,343 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 529,670 4.7 49,968 44,389 44,458 46,347 42,592 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 474,610 4.2 43,124 39,746 39,922 40,279 38,235 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,912 2,863 3,849 2,803 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 203,613 5.9 19,703 16,869 16,852 19,002 15,776 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,398 14,450 16,188 13,527 447 Gasoline stations................................ 314,653 17.2 27,028 27,137 28,774 21,786 21,405 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 189,758 6.3 28,228 17,198 15,525 26,890 16,522 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 1,116 992 1,530 1,001 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,181 3,079 4,465 3,052 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,614 5,810 9,052 6,262 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,833 1,861 2,519 1,881 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 82,003 3.2 12,638 7,532 6,115 12,126 7,350 452 General merchandise stores....................... 504,635 7.1 65,578 47,096 41,869 60,817 45,000 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 214,638 0.2 31,686 20,633 17,339 30,735 20,729 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 20,851 17,521 31,138 20,967 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 26,463 24,530 30,082 24,271 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 22,530 21,055 24,912 20,514 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,933 3,475 5,170 3,757 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 110,951 5.8 11,814 9,564 9,207 11,263 8,674 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 214,046 12.8 24,975 20,203 18,684 21,646 17,030 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 12,594 11,566 14,427 10,945 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 391,043 9.5 33,785 31,604 33,878 30,993 29,790 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2004
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Dec Nov 2004 2004 advance preliminary from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.2 +8.7 +0.1 +7.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.3 +8.6 +0.4 +8.5 Retail .................................. +1.3 +8.8 +0.1 +7.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +4.3 +8.9 -1.0 +3.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +4.4 +9.0 -1.2 +3.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +2.2 +6.4 -1.0 +3.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.2 +3.3 +1.1 +4.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.2 +13.2 +0.6 +11.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +5.7 +0.4 +5.3 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +5.3 +0.5 +5.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.2 +3.6 +0.4 +4.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -2.0 +21.8 +1.2 +24.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.6 +3.3 -0.8 +4.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.9 +3.1 -0.6 +2.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.7 +7.0 +0.4 +6.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.2 +1.3 -0.1 +1.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.9 +4.6 +1.2 +6.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.9 +14.3 +0.7 +13.4 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.5 +7.7 +0.1 +7.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Dec Nov 2004 2004 advance preliminary from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +18.8 +9.3 +1.1 +8.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +20.9 +9.2 +2.8 +9.3 Retail .................................. +20.0 +9.4 +2.0 +9.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +10.7 +9.9 -4.9 +7.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +11.6 +9.9 -5.1 +7.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +13.6 +7.2 +9.1 +5.5 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +47.5 +4.4 +20.9 +5.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -4.5 +13.2 -4.1 +17.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +12.6 +7.8 -0.2 +4.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +8.5 +7.1 -0.4 +4.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +16.8 +3.7 +0.1 +6.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.4 +24.1 -5.7 +26.8 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +64.1 +5.0 +10.8 +4.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +67.8 +4.2 +23.2 +2.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +39.2 +7.8 +12.5 +4.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +53.6 +3.1 +19.0 -0.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +23.5 +4.9 +3.9 +10.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +23.6 +15.4 +8.1 +18.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +6.9 +9.0 -6.7 +6.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--DECEMBER 2004 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
3rd Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
