ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 100101
SPC AC 100101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2003

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 JCT AUS CLL
GGG HRO JEF UIN PIA DNV MIE CMH UNI HTS JKL LOZ TCL 50 E LUL 20 SE
PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 15 WNW OAJ
50 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W DLN BTM HLN 55
SSW HVR 70 WNW GGW GGW 60 WNW MLS BIL WEY 25 W DLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA PUW PDT MFR
25 WNW MFR SLE CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 50 ENE BLH
35 SSE PRC 45 NW SAD 30 ESE DUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS IN MIDDLE-UPPER
LEVELS.  100-120 KT UPPER JET ANALYZED OVER NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF
PACIFIC NW TROUGH.  WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL INLAND
PACIFIC NW.  MEANWHILE...WEAK CYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE CAROLINAS COAST...AND CUT-OFF CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY INVOF BAJA SPUR.  POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH --
EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA FROM MID MS VALLEY
SWWD TO E TX -- IS FCST TO DRIFT EWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY AND MS DELTA
REGION BY END OF PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS
NRN AR TOWARD MO BOOTHEEL AND WRN PORTIONS TN/KY.

...MID/UPPER TX COAST...
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS DECREASING OVER REGION...THOUGH BRIEF
SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP
WITH EMBEDDED TSTM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
NWRN GULF AND MID/UPPER TX COAST.  ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHERE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION HAS
NOT ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED AIR MASS...IS SHRINKING OVER
LAND TO SCALE OF A FEW COUNTIES.  LOOPY LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
CONTINUE IN INFLOW REGION...BUT EXPECT WEAKENING MIDLEVEL FLOW TO
RESULT IN NET DECREASE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.  MEANWHILE...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE EVEN IN NARROW ZONE AHEAD OF
CONVECTION.  DISTANT LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS APPEAR
UNREPRESENTATIVE...BEING TOO STABLE/UNSTABLE RESPECTIVELY.  GRADUAL
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING APPLIED TO MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH
NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...DECREASES MLCAPE TO BELOW 500
J/KG AFTER 3Z.

..EDWARDS.. 10/10/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$