ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 100101 SPC AC 100101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2003 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 JCT AUS CLL GGG HRO JEF UIN PIA DNV MIE CMH UNI HTS JKL LOZ TCL 50 E LUL 20 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 15 WNW OAJ 50 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W DLN BTM HLN 55 SSW HVR 70 WNW GGW GGW 60 WNW MLS BIL WEY 25 W DLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA PUW PDT MFR 25 WNW MFR SLE CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 50 ENE BLH 35 SSE PRC 45 NW SAD 30 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS. 100-120 KT UPPER JET ANALYZED OVER NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW TROUGH. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL INLAND PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE...WEAK CYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE CAROLINAS COAST...AND CUT-OFF CYCLONE WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY INVOF BAJA SPUR. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA FROM MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO E TX -- IS FCST TO DRIFT EWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY AND MS DELTA REGION BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS NRN AR TOWARD MO BOOTHEEL AND WRN PORTIONS TN/KY. ...MID/UPPER TX COAST... SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS DECREASING OVER REGION...THOUGH BRIEF SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED TSTM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS NWRN GULF AND MID/UPPER TX COAST. ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHERE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION HAS NOT ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED AIR MASS...IS SHRINKING OVER LAND TO SCALE OF A FEW COUNTIES. LOOPY LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE IN INFLOW REGION...BUT EXPECT WEAKENING MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RESULT IN NET DECREASE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. MEANWHILE...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE EVEN IN NARROW ZONE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. DISTANT LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS APPEAR UNREPRESENTATIVE...BEING TOO STABLE/UNSTABLE RESPECTIVELY. GRADUAL LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING APPLIED TO MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...DECREASES MLCAPE TO BELOW 500 J/KG AFTER 3Z. ..EDWARDS.. 10/10/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |