CB-99-87FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Thursday, May 13, 1999
************************************************************************************************************************* INTENTION TO REVISE ESTIMATES. Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 1997 Annual Retail Trade Survey, which reflects the preliminary 1997 Census of Retail Trade data. Unadjusted estimates will be revised for the months of January 1993 through June 1999, while the corresponding adjusted data will be revised for January 1990 through June 1999. Revised data are scheduled for release the week of July 26. *************************************************************************************************************************
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for April adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $239.3 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 7.5 percent (±0.9%) from April 1998. Total sales for the February through April period were up 8.2 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 1999 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.7%) to +0.1 percent (±0.4%).
Durable goods decreased 0.3 percent (±1.4%) from March but were 8.6 percent above last year. Building materials were up 11.2 percent from April a year ago, while furniture sales were up 11.0 percent during the same period.
Nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (±0.6%) from last month and were up 6.7 percent from April 1998. General merchandise sales were up 7.9 percent from April a year ago.
The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A: ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--APRIL 1999 Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of Dollars) 1999 SIC Kind of business code Apr. Mar. Feb. adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 239,332 239,156 238,999 Total (excl. auto group).. 180,279 179,639 178,847 Durable goods, total........ 101,529 101,855 102,518 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,273 15,245 15,501 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 11,779 11,815 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,395 1,383 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 59,053 59,517 60,152 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 55,569 56,130 56,775 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,387 3,377 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,234 14,138 14,018 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,701 6,662 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,452 6,372 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 137,803 137,301 136,481 53 General merchandise group stores.. 31,479 31,613 31,343 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 24,708 24,792 24,598 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 25,287 25,028 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,140 1,132 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,681 5,613 54 Food stores....................... 38,167 38,275 38,309 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,744 35,850 35,882 554 Gasoline service stations......... 13,112 12,800 12,483 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,014 10,919 10,901 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 976 953 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ (*) 2,842 2,791 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,725 1,769 58 Eating and drinking places........ 21,631 21,524 21,612 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,693 9,595 9,511 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,174 2,188 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 5,024 5,076 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 65,429 65,077 594 1998 SIC Kind of business code Apr.(r) Mar.(r) Retail trade, total........... 222,613 220,219 Total (excl. auto group).. 167,544 166,436 Durable goods, total........ 93,501 92,165 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 13,736 13,570 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 10,453 10,254 525 Hardware stores................. 1,279 1,272 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 55,069 53,783 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 51,871 50,589 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,198 3,194 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 12,828 13,033 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,284 6,285 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,575 5,801 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 129,112 128,054 53 General merchandise group stores.. 29,179 28,831 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 23,046 22,758 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 23,489 23,097 533 Variety stores.................. 952 952 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,181 5,121 54 Food stores....................... 36,621 36,317 541 Grocery stores.................. 34,224 33,969 554 Gasoline service stations......... 12,407 12,366 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,454 10,315 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 1,005 939 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ 2,686 2,627 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,731 1,759 58 Eating and drinking places........ 20,239 20,232 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 8,687 8,539 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,048 2,034 5961 Total mail order................... 4,501 4,465 53,56,57, GAF................................ 60,733 60,390 594 * Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. NA Not available. r Revised.
TABLE 1B: ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--APRIL 1999 Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of Dollars) 1999 SIC Kind of business code Apr. Mar. Feb. adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 237,667 240,035 208,483 Total (excl. auto group).. 174,974 174,703 153,754 Durable goods, total........ 104,022 105,058 89,458 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 16,739 14,581 11,705 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 11,414 9,121 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,267 1,044 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 62,693 65,332 54,729 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 59,125 61,911 51,892 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 52,675 44,239 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,421 2,837 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 12,996 13,680 12,374 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,587 5,849 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,168 5,665 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 886 766 Nondurable goods, total..... 133,645 134,977 119,025 53 General merchandise group stores.. 29,204 29,345 25,168 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 22,954 22,908 19,605 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 23,252 19,892 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,097 949 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,340 4,614 54 Food stores....................... 37,520 38,091 34,505 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,136 35,671 32,330 554 Gasoline service stations......... 13,073 12,582 10,923 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,474 10,350 8,252 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 862 736 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ (*) 2,720 2,146 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 3,933 3,115 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,763 1,426 58 Eating and drinking places........ 21,761 21,610 19,602 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,567 9,883 8,988 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,033 1,842 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 5,170 4,325 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 60,838 52,793 594 1998 SIC Kind of business code Apr. Mar. Retail trade, total........... 221,166 216,181 Total (excl. auto group).. 163,229 158,636 Durable goods, total........ 95,261 92,819 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,903 12,676 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 11,070 9,700 525 Hardware stores................. 1,345 1,128 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 57,937 57,545 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 54,672 54,383 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 46,383 46,522 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,265 3,162 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 11,787 12,421 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 5,932 6,052 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,012 5,488 5722 Household appliance stores.... 817 834 Nondurable goods, total..... 125,905 123,362 53 General merchandise group stores.. 27,565 26,027 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 21,778 20,459 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 22,197 20,832 533 Variety stores.................. 922 872 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 4,865 4,696 54 Food stores....................... 36,152 35,583 541 Grocery stores.................. 33,745 33,324 554 Gasoline service stations......... 12,283 12,007 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,127 9,327 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 930 807 562,3 Women's clothing, specialty stores........................ 2,694 2,385 565 Family clothing stores.......... 3,723 3,477 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,818 1,669 58 Eating and drinking places........ 20,178 20,293 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 8,670 8,548 592 Liquor stores..................... 1,925 1,859 5961 Total mail order................... 4,141 4,434 53,56,57, GAF................................ 56,527 54,533 594 * Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. NA Not available. r Revised.
TABLE 2: PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--APRIL 1999 Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Apr. Mar. 1999 1999 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Mar. Apr. Feb. Mar. CODE 1999 1998 1999 1998 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +0.1 +7.5 +0.1 +8.6 Total (excl. auto group).. +0.4 +7.6 +0.4 +7.9 Durable goods, total........ -0.3 +8.6 -0.6 +10.5 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +0.2 +11.2 -1.7 +12.3 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -0.8 +7.2 -1.1 +10.7 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -1.0 +7.1 -1.1 +11.0 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +0.7 +11.0 +0.9 +8.5 Nondurable goods, total..... +0.4 +6.7 +0.6 +7.2 53 General merchandise group stores.. -0.4 +7.9 +0.9 +9.6 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). -0.3 +7.2 +0.8 +8.9 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +1.0 +9.5 54 Food stores....................... -0.3 +4.2 -0.1 +5.4 541 Grocery stores.................. -0.3 +4.4 -0.1 +5.5 554 Gasoline service stations......... +2.4 +5.7 +2.5 +3.5 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +0.9 +5.4 +0.2 +5.9 58 Eating and drinking places........ +0.5 +6.9 -0.4 +6.4 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +1.0 +11.6 +0.9 +12.4 Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Apr. Mar. 1999 1999 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Mar. Apr. Feb. Mar. CODE 1999 1998 1999 1998 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... -1.0 +7.5 +15.1 +11.0 Total (excl. auto group).. +0.2 +7.2 +13.6 +10.1 Durable goods, total........ -1.0 +9.2 +17.4 +13.2 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +14.8 +12.3 +24.6 +15.0 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ -4.0 +8.2 +19.4 +13.5 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. -4.5 +8.1 +19.3 +13.8 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. -5.0 +10.3 +10.6 +10.1 Nondurable goods, total..... -1.0 +6.1 +13.4 +9.4 53 General merchandise group stores.. -0.5 +5.9 +16.6 +12.7 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +0.2 +5.4 +16.8 +12.0 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +16.9 +11.6 54 Food stores....................... -1.5 +3.8 +10.4 +7.0 541 Grocery stores.................. -1.5 +4.1 +10.3 +7.0 554 Gasoline service stations......... +3.9 +6.4 +15.2 +4.8 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +1.2 +3.4 +25.4 +11.0 58 Eating and drinking places........ +0.7 +7.8 +10.2 +6.5 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... -3.2 +10.3 +10.0 +15.6 NA Not available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Retail Sales--APRIL 1999 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Ronald Piencykoski (301) 457-2713/2666.
Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.
Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).
(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data while all other kinds of business are based on the preceding 12 months.
