Short-Term Energy Outlook

Petroleum Products Demand Model Regression Results

Table

1. Motor Gasoline Deliveries, MGTCPUSX
2. Highway Travel, MVVMPUS
3. Jet Fuel Consumption, JFTCPUS
4. Revenue Ton-Miles, RMZZPUS
5. Available Ton-Miles, RMZTPUS
6. Consumer Ticket Prices, ACTKFUS
7. Distillate Deliveries to Transportation Sector, DFACPUSX
8. Distillate Deliveries to Residential Sector, DFRCPUSX
9. Distillate Deliveries to Commercial Sector, DFCCPUSX
10. Distillate Deliveries to Industrial Sector, DFICPUSX
11. No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Volume, D2RCPUS
12. No. 2 Diesel Sales through Company Outlets, DSTCPUS
13. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Transportation Sector, RFACPUSX
14. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Commercial Sector, RFCCPUSX
15. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Industrial Sector, RFICPUSX
16. Ethane Demand (Deseasonalized), ETTCPUSA
17. LPG Except Ethane Demand (Deseasonalized), LXTCPUSA
18. Propane Demand, PRTCPUS

Related Petroleum Products Demand Model Documentation

• Petroleum Products Demand Model Description
• Petroleum Products Demand Model Variable Definitions

Table 1. Motor Gasoline Deliveries, MGTCPUSX(million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MGTCPUSX	19	178	2.82988	0.01590	0.12609	0.9507	0.9457	2.217

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
MGTC_01	4.985201	0.29050	17.16	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
MGTC_VM	0.00049677	0.00003749	13.25	COEF FOR MVVMPUS
MGTC_P	-0.00558041	0.0010348	-5.39	COEF FOR (MGEIAUS/CICPIUS)
MGTC_RF	0.174958	0.03364	5.20	COEF FOR RFG PERIOD (95 ON)
MGTC_D02	-0.266121	0.13129	-2.03	COEF FOR D8302
MGTC_D03	-0.202428	0.13103	-1.54	COEF FOR D8412
MGTC_D05	-0.131191	0.05812	-2.26	COEF FOR DRVP90
MGTC_D08	0.175448	0.03559	4.93	COEF FOR (1-D9101ON)
MGTC_06	-0.419885	0.04744	-8.85	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MGTC_07	-0.271232	0.04597	-5.90	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MGTC_08	-0.201040	0.04488	-4.48	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MGTC_09	-0.156347	0.04833	-3.24	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MGTC_10	-0.128731	0.05039	-2.55	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MGTC_11	-0.040537	0.05397	-0.75	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MGTC_12	-0.118658	0.05479	-2.17	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MGTC_13	-0.119203	0.05593	-2.13	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MGTC_14	-0.325723	0.04908	-6.64	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MGTC_15	-0.221650	0.04823	-4.60	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MGTC_16	-0.156873	0.04580	-3.43	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1982 through August 1998

Table 2. Highway Travel, MVVMPUS(million miles per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
VMT	20	151	593636	3931.4	62.70062	0.9948	0.9941	2.060

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
MVVM_01	4307.68	99.96916	43.09	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
MVVM_YT	0.00181302	0.00006222	29.14	COEF OF YD87OUS*TIME
MVVM_D01	-84.105949	61.21137	-1.37	COEF OF D8501
MVVM_D02	164.248817	28.21840	5.82	COEF OF D89ON
MVVM_D04	-260.515459	61.02907	-4.27	COEF OF D9401
MVVM_06	-304.161207	20.72927	-14.67	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MVVM_07	-112.429954	23.94145	-4.70	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MVVM_08	237.564795	26.91148	8.83	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MVVM_09	417.222443	28.59153	14.59	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MVVM_10	582.582237	29.29040	19.89	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MVVM_11	769.762785	29.75204	25.87	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MVVM_12	804.532534	30.45783	26.41	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MVVM_13	859.072878	29.66989	28.95	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MVVM_14	485.427105	27.82975	17.44	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MVVM_15	418.329677	25.11416	16.66	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MVVM_16	165.349296	20.46169	8.08	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
VMT1_0	-18.606954	9.41024	-1.98	PDL(VMT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**0
VMT1_1	4.467043	4.21866	1.06	PDL(VMT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**1
VMT1_2	-0.332811	0.33951	-0.98	PDL(VMT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**2
VMT_L1	0.374239	0.07664	4.88	AR(VMT) VMT LAG1 PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1982 through August 1998

Table 3. Jet Fuel Consumption, JFTCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
JFTC	16	167	0.40692	0.0024367	0.04936	0.9172	0.9097	2.375

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
JFTC_0	0.894088	0.06210	14.40	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
JFTC_RM	0.000019141	1.88855E-6	10.14	COEF FOR RMZTPUS
JFTC_D	0.100439	0.04874	2.06	JFTCPUS COEF FOR D8912
JFTC_W	0.00014155	0.00005146	2.75	COEF FOR ZWHDDNO0
JFTC_06	-0.00525354	0.01366	-0.38	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
JFTC_07	-0.019723	0.01754	-1.12	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
JFTC_08	-0.096922	0.02001	-4.84	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
JFTC_09	-0.100823	0.02156	-4.68	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
JFTC_10	-0.129708	0.02239	-5.79	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
JFTC_11	-0.097690	0.02268	-4.31	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
JFTC_12	-0.101794	0.02256	-4.51	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
JFTC_13	-0.069225	0.02193	-3.16	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
JFTC_14	-0.073503	0.02037	-3.61	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
JFTC_15	-0.057665	0.01807	-3.19	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
JFTC_16	-0.051543	0.01432	-3.60	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
JFTCPUS_L1	0.725397	0.05135	14.13	AR(JFTCPUS) LAG1 PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through June 1998

Table 4. Revenue Ton-Miles, RMZZPUS(Million Miles Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RMZZ	18	117	1401678435	1198158	3461.2	0.9906	0.9892	1.843

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
RMZZ_0	85720.53	13264.2	6.46	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
RMZZ_YD	-0.052573	0.02782	-1.89	COEF FOR (YD87OUS*TIME)
RMZZ_JQ	692.118383	107.04775	6.47	COEF FOR INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
RMZZ_D1	4493.95	3082.8	1.46	COEF FOR DESERT STORM DUMMY VARIABLE
RMZZ_06	-15403.64	1205.5	-12.78	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_07	-7534.28	1472.0	-5.12	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_08	9798.76	1586.3	6.18	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_09	5017.07	1674.3	3.00	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_10	3309.05	1709.3	1.94	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_11	22033.34	1723.8	12.78	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_12	25257.41	1717.5	14.71	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwiseY
RMZZ_13	32596.85	1698.3	19.19	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_14	6388.76	1639.2	3.90	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_15	9106.08	1485.9	6.13	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
RMZZ_16	-64.092105	1186.9	-0.05	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
RMZZ1_0	-69.318575	57.54307	-1.20	PDL(RMZZ1,6,1) parameter for (L)**0
RMZZ1_1	20.584312	17.85456	1.15	PDL(RMZZ1,6,1) parameter for (L)**1
RMZZ_L1	0.543135	0.07998	6.79	AR(RMZZ) RMZZ LAG1 PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1987 through June 1998

Table 5. Available Ton-Miles, RMZTPUS(Million Miles Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RMZT	5	178	37745564	212053.7	460.49292	0.9958	0.9957	2.179

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
RMZT_0	2996.16	517.08682	5.79	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
RMZT1_0	0.033259	0.0019163	17.36	PDL(RMZT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**0
RMZT1_1	-0.00894792	0.0006657	-13.44	PDL(RMZT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**1
RMZT1_2	0.00066406	0.00005146	12.90	PDL(RMZT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**2
RMZT_L1	0.742709	0.05109	14.54	AR(RMZT) LAG1 PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through June 1998

Table 6. Consumer Ticket Prices, ACTKFUS(Index--1982-84=100)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
ACTK	15	145	1793	12.36496	3.51639	0.9886	0.9875	1.673

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
ACTK_0	1.299318	2.45363	0.53	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
ACTK_JK	0.032108	0.02521	1.27	COEF FOR JKTCUUS
ACTK_T	0.093061	0.02767	3.36	COEF FOR TIME
ACTK_06	0.231623	1.35503	0.17	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
ACTK_07	0.733300	1.35494	0.54	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
ACTK_08	1.631953	1.35890	1.20	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
ACTK_09	-0.484229	1.36344	-0.36	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
ACTK_10	-1.365628	1.38532	-0.99	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
ACTK_11	-0.427132	1.38510	-0.31	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
ACTK_12	0.654107	1.38601	0.47	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
ACTK_13	-1.750104	1.38192	-1.27	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
ACTK_14	-0.262409	1.38149	-0.19	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
ACTK_15	0.868139	1.38410	0.63	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
ACTK_16	0.486494	1.38128	0.35	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
ACTK_R1	0.862934	0.04072	21.19	ACTKFUS LAGGED ONE MONTH
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1985 through June 1998

Table 7. Distillate Deliveries to Transportation Sector, DFACPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DFAC	15	105	0.17849	0.0016999	0.04123	0.9482	0.9413	2.265

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
DFAC_01	-0.211682	0.08189	-2.59	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
DFAC_JQ	1.242792	0.17378	7.15	COEF OF ZOMNIUS
DFAC_06	0.071693	0.01922	3.73	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DFAC_07	0.137534	0.01871	7.35	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DFAC_08	0.155422	0.01975	7.87	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DFAC_09	0.172453	0.02161	7.98	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DFAC_10	0.208423	0.02342	8.90	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DFAC_11	0.154461	0.02616	5.90	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DFAC_12	0.219064	0.02386	9.18	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DFAC_13	0.115236	0.02650	4.35	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DFAC_14	0.127620	0.02174	5.87	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DFAC_15	0.069430	0.02089	3.32	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
DFAC_16	0.048507	0.01902	2.55	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
DFAC_P	-0.00024447	0.0005678	-0.43	COEF OF INFLATION-ADJ. DIESEL PRODUCER PRICE
DFAC_R1	0.365476	0.08599	4.25	COEF OF LAGGED DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 8. Distillate Deliveries to Residential Sector, DFRCPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DFRC	15	105	0.09034	0.0008604	0.02933	0.9152	0.9039	1.931

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
DFRC_01	0.354315	0.03105	11.41	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
DFRC_R1	0.358629	0.05839	6.14	COEF OF LAG(DFRCPUS)
DFRC_W	0.00683214	0.0011026	6.20	COEF OF ZWHDDNO/ZSAJQUS
DFRC_06	-0.030475	0.01334	-2.28	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DFRC_07	-0.081988	0.01335	-6.14	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DFRC_08	-0.118227	0.01381	-8.56	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DFRC_09	-0.132633	0.01478	-8.97	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DFRC_10	-0.116809	0.01586	-7.37	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DFRC_11	-0.136783	0.01585	-8.63	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DFRC_12	-0.100082	0.01645	-6.08	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DFRC_13	-0.092003	0.01559	-5.90	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DFRC_14	-0.127728	0.01598	-7.99	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DFRC_15	-0.103111	0.01575	-6.55	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
DFRC_16	-0.00941035	0.01488	-0.63	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
DFRC_17	0.082404	0.01014	8.12	COEF OF DFR89*(OCT....MAR)
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 9. Distillate Deliveries to Commercial Sector, DFCCPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DFCC	16	104	0.02784	0.0002677	0.01636	0.9198	0.9083	2.054

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
DFCC_01	0.312300	0.03470	9.00	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
DFCC_R1	0.419497	0.06405	6.55	COEF OF LAG(DFCCPUS)
DFCC_W	0.00403893	0.0006026	6.70	COEF OF ZWHDDNO/ZSAJQUS
DFCC_06	-0.013865	0.0074111	-1.87	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DFCC_07	-0.042152	0.0074341	-5.67	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DFCC_08	-0.167093	0.02002	-8.34	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DFCC_09	-0.172058	0.02161	-7.96	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DFCC_10	-0.162039	0.02252	-7.20	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DFCC_11	-0.172086	0.02255	-7.63	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DFCC_12	-0.152106	0.02296	-6.62	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DFCC_13	-0.148005	0.02238	-6.61	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DFCC_14	-0.056300	0.0091164	-6.18	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DFCC_15	-0.043384	0.0088915	-4.88	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
DFCC_16	0.00771132	0.0083482	0.92	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
DFCC_17	-0.00064635	0.00009138	-7.07	COEF OF TIME
DFCC_18	-0.00017427	0.00006858	-2.54	COEF OF DFR89*(OCT....MAR)
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 10. Distillate Deliveries to Industrial Sector, DFICPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DFIC	13	107	1.18551	0.01108	0.10526	0.8112	0.7900	1.921

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
DFIC_01	0.879645	0.03585	24.53	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
DFIC_W	0.027397	0.0061942	4.42	COEF OF ZWHDDUS(OCT...APR)
DFIC_06	-0.00662425	0.04742	-0.14	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DFIC_07	-0.124752	0.04769	-2.62	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DFIC_08	-0.362939	0.04892	-7.42	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DFIC_09	-0.512957	0.04892	-10.48	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DFIC_10	-0.520993	0.04892	-10.65	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DFIC_11	-0.660543	0.04892	-13.50	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DFIC_12	-0.573698	0.04892	-11.73	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DFIC_13	-0.452003	0.04892	-9.24	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DFIC_14	-0.307370	0.04948	-6.21	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DFIC_15	-0.260302	0.04943	-5.27	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
DFIC_16	-0.128833	0.04835	-2.66	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 11. No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Volume, D2RCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
D2RC	12	84	0.38906	0.0046316	0.06806	0.9476	0.9407	0.938

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
D2RC_HC	0.883638	0.02666	33.15	COEFFICIENT OF DFHCPUS
D2RC_01	0.070699	0.03392	2.08	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
D2RC_02	0.052696	0.03342	1.58	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
D2RC_03	-0.066773	0.03206	-2.08	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
D2RC_04	-0.196637	0.02967	-6.63	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
D2RC_05	-0.299727	0.02857	-10.49	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
D2RC_06	-0.366607	0.02853	-12.85	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
D2RC_07	-0.374312	0.02833	-13.21	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
D2RC_08	-0.364299	0.02880	-12.65	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
D2RC_09	-0.330169	0.02922	-11.30	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
D2RC_10	-0.242199	0.02962	-8.18	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
D2RC_11	-0.096021	0.03027	-3.17	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1988 through December 1995

Table 12. No. 2 Diesel Sales through Company Outlets, DSTCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DSTC	14	82	0.04286	0.0005227	0.03275	0.5057	0.4274	2.702

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
DSTC_AC	-0.045544	0.10231	-0.45	COEFFICIENT OF DFACPUS
DSTC_T	0.00278533	0.0011839	2.35	COEF OF TIME
DSTC_01	-0.00044608	0.01062	-0.04	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
DSTC_02	0.023059	0.01077	2.14	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DSTC_03	0.048338	0.01391	3.47	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DSTC_04	0.047738	0.01758	2.72	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DSTC_05	0.037246	0.02037	1.83	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DSTC_06	0.051557	0.02385	2.16	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DSTC_07	0.036514	0.02534	1.44	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DSTC_08	0.060478	0.02501	2.42	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DSTC_09	0.044542	0.01740	2.56	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DSTC_10	0.058784	0.01499	3.92	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DSTC_11	0.021883	0.0089118	2.46	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
DSTCPUS_L1	0.990387	0.01637	60.52	AR(DSTCPUS) LAG1
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st. order autocorrelation Estimation period: January 1988 through December 1995

Table 13. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Transportation Sector, RFACPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RFAC	8	112	0.04179	0.0003731	0.01932	0.7508	0.7352	2.309

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
RFAC_01	-0.128269	0.08366	-1.53	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
RFAC_D1	-0.085322	0.01135	-7.52	COEF OF D93ON
RFAC_Q	0.000093579	0.00001406	6.65	COEF OF GDPQXUS
RFAC_06	0.030060	0.0054923	5.47	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
RFAC_11	-0.034270	0.0062490	-5.48	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
RFAC_12	-0.022268	0.0069096	-3.22	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
RFAC_13	-0.028563	0.0062491	-4.57	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
RFACPUSX_L1	0.508833	0.08168	6.23	AR(RFACPUSX) PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 14. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Commercial Sector, RFCCPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RFCC	15	105	0.00690	0.0006568	0.0081043	0.9186	0.9078	1.967

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
RFCC_01	0.235532	0.01202	19.59	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
RFCC_W	0.00127081	0.0003928	3.24	COEF OF ZWHDPUS DEVS
RFCC_T	-0.00058393	0.00006023	-9.69	COEF OF TIME
RFCC_06	-0.00266345	0.0028129	-0.95	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
RFCC_07	-0.015933	0.0036101	-4.41	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
RFCC_08	-0.035294	0.0040593	-8.69	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
RFCC_09	-0.044776	0.0043174	-10.37	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
RFCC_10	-0.044341	0.0044391	-9.99	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
RFCC_11	-0.047039	0.0044802	-10.50	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
RFCC_12	-0.041679	0.0044497	-9.37	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
RFCC_13	-0.036881	0.0043400	-8.50	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
RFCC_14	-0.032145	0.0041477	-7.75	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
RFCC_15	-0.024591	0.0037572	-6.54	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
RFCC_16	-0.00136674	0.0029723	-0.46	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
RFCCPUSX_L1	0.661653	0.07318	9.04	AR(RFCCPUSX) PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 15. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Industrial Sector, RFICPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RFIC	15	105	0.067012	0.00063821	0.07989	0.6225	0.5722	1.946

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
RFIC_01	0.648956	0.06027	10.77	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
RFIC_W	0.016321	0.0046641	3.50	COEF OF ZWHDPUS
RFIC_P	-64.646081	20.50893	-3.15	COEF OF RFTCUUS/NGICUUS
RFIC_T	-0.00092452	0.0002137	-4.33	COEF OF TIME
RFIC_06	-0.00262635	0.03604	-0.07	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
RFIC_07	-0.074684	0.03624	-2.06	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
RFIC_08	-0.091517	0.03668	-2.50	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
RFIC_09	-0.197522	0.03720	-5.31	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
RFIC_10	-0.191883	0.03729	-5.15	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
RFIC_11	-0.188084	0.03740	-5.03	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
RFIC_12	-0.216752	0.03753	-5.78	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
RFIC_13	-0.206202	0.03734	-5.52	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
RFIC_14	-0.130755	0.03786	-3.45	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
RFIC_15	-0.139019	0.03757	-3.70	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
RFIC_16	0.015876	0.03671	0.43	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995

Table 16. Ethane Demand (Deseasonalized), ETTCPUSA(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
ETH	4	83	0.10298	0.0012407	0.03522	0.6110	0.5969	1.946

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
ETH_0	-0.109734	0.10248	-1.07	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
ETH_1	0.00072036	0.0014385	0.50	COEF OF D2WHUUSA/NGEUDUSA
ETH_2	0.674733	0.07733	8.73	COEF OF ZO28IUS
ETTCPUSA_L1	0.151643	0.10913	1.39	AR(ETTCPUSA) PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation Estimation period: January 1991 through June 1998

Table 17. LPG Except Ethane Demand (Deseasonalized), LXTCPUSA(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
LXT	6	166	0.95106	0.0057293	0.07098	0.7098	0.7010	1.938

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
LXT0	0.178047	0.05293	3.36	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
LXT1	0.015921	0.0032460	4.90	COEF FOR (ZWHDPUS-ZWHNPUS)/ZSAJQUS
LXT2	0.241695	0.06482	3.73	COEF FOR LAG(LXTCPUSA)
LXT3	0.734437	0.07890	9.31	COEF FOR ZO28IUS
LXT4	-0.198266	0.07978	-2.49	COEF FOR D9001
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1984 through June 1998

Table 18. Propane Demand, PRTCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PRTC	14	135	0.18522	0.0013720	0.03704	0.9761	0.9737	2.200

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
PRTC_01	0.042608	0.04493	0.95	CONSTANT COEFFICIENT
PRTC_Q	0.850497	0.02961	28.73	COEF FOR LXTCPUS
PRTC_06	0.015777	0.01193	1.32	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PRTC_07	-0.00515728	0.01488	-0.35	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PRTC_08	-0.035477	0.01809	-1.96	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PRTC_09	-0.066132	0.02076	-3.19	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PRTC_10	-0.080836	0.02284	-3.54	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PRTC_11	-0.099938	0.02298	-4.35	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PRTC_12	-0.090599	0.02201	-4.12	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PRTC_13	-0.047225	0.02131	-2.22	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PRTC_14	-0.041910	0.01870	-2.24	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PRTC_15	-0.034318	0.01600	-2.14	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PRTC_16	-0.032062	0.01250	-2.56	NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise
PRTCPUS_L1	0.582723	0.07024	8.30	AR(PRTCPUS) LAG1 PARAMETER
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation Estimation period: January 1986 through June 1998

File last modified: October 28, 1998

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