Table 1. Motor Gasoline Deliveries, MGTCPUSX(million barrels per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
MGTCPUSX | 19 | 178 | 2.82988 | 0.01590 | 0.12609 | 0.9507 | 0.9457 | 2.217 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
MGTC_01 | 4.985201 | 0.29050 | 17.16 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
MGTC_VM | 0.00049677 | 0.00003749 | 13.25 | COEF FOR MVVMPUS |
MGTC_P | -0.00558041 | 0.0010348 | -5.39 | COEF FOR (MGEIAUS/CICPIUS) |
MGTC_RF | 0.174958 | 0.03364 | 5.20 | COEF FOR RFG PERIOD (95 ON) |
MGTC_D02 | -0.266121 | 0.13129 | -2.03 | COEF FOR D8302 |
MGTC_D03 | -0.202428 | 0.13103 | -1.54 | COEF FOR D8412 |
MGTC_D05 | -0.131191 | 0.05812 | -2.26 | COEF FOR DRVP90 |
MGTC_D08 | 0.175448 | 0.03559 | 4.93 | COEF FOR (1-D9101ON) |
MGTC_06 | -0.419885 | 0.04744 | -8.85 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_07 | -0.271232 | 0.04597 | -5.90 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_08 | -0.201040 | 0.04488 | -4.48 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_09 | -0.156347 | 0.04833 | -3.24 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_10 | -0.128731 | 0.05039 | -2.55 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_11 | -0.040537 | 0.05397 | -0.75 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_12 | -0.118658 | 0.05479 | -2.17 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_13 | -0.119203 | 0.05593 | -2.13 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_14 | -0.325723 | 0.04908 | -6.64 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_15 | -0.221650 | 0.04823 | -4.60 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
MGTC_16 | -0.156873 | 0.04580 | -3.43 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1982 through August 1998 |
Table 2. Highway Travel, MVVMPUS(million miles per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
VMT | 20 | 151 | 593636 | 3931.4 | 62.70062 | 0.9948 | 0.9941 | 2.060 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
MVVM_01 | 4307.68 | 99.96916 | 43.09 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
MVVM_YT | 0.00181302 | 0.00006222 | 29.14 | COEF OF YD87OUS*TIME |
MVVM_D01 | -84.105949 | 61.21137 | -1.37 | COEF OF D8501 |
MVVM_D02 | 164.248817 | 28.21840 | 5.82 | COEF OF D89ON |
MVVM_D04 | -260.515459 | 61.02907 | -4.27 | COEF OF D9401 |
MVVM_06 | -304.161207 | 20.72927 | -14.67 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_07 | -112.429954 | 23.94145 | -4.70 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_08 | 237.564795 | 26.91148 | 8.83 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_09 | 417.222443 | 28.59153 | 14.59 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_10 | 582.582237 | 29.29040 | 19.89 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_11 | 769.762785 | 29.75204 | 25.87 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_12 | 804.532534 | 30.45783 | 26.41 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_13 | 859.072878 | 29.66989 | 28.95 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_14 | 485.427105 | 27.82975 | 17.44 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_15 | 418.329677 | 25.11416 | 16.66 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
MVVM_16 | 165.349296 | 20.46169 | 8.08 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
VMT1_0 | -18.606954 | 9.41024 | -1.98 | PDL(VMT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**0 |
VMT1_1 | 4.467043 | 4.21866 | 1.06 | PDL(VMT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**1 |
VMT1_2 | -0.332811 | 0.33951 | -0.98 | PDL(VMT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**2 |
VMT_L1 | 0.374239 | 0.07664 | 4.88 | AR(VMT) VMT LAG1 PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1982 through August 1998 |
Table 3. Jet Fuel Consumption, JFTCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
JFTC | 16 | 167 | 0.40692 | 0.0024367 | 0.04936 | 0.9172 | 0.9097 | 2.375 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
JFTC_0 | 0.894088 | 0.06210 | 14.40 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
JFTC_RM | 0.000019141 | 1.88855E-6 | 10.14 | COEF FOR RMZTPUS |
JFTC_D | 0.100439 | 0.04874 | 2.06 | JFTCPUS COEF FOR D8912 |
JFTC_W | 0.00014155 | 0.00005146 | 2.75 | COEF FOR ZWHDDNO0 |
JFTC_06 | -0.00525354 | 0.01366 | -0.38 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_07 | -0.019723 | 0.01754 | -1.12 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_08 | -0.096922 | 0.02001 | -4.84 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_09 | -0.100823 | 0.02156 | -4.68 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_10 | -0.129708 | 0.02239 | -5.79 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_11 | -0.097690 | 0.02268 | -4.31 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_12 | -0.101794 | 0.02256 | -4.51 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_13 | -0.069225 | 0.02193 | -3.16 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_14 | -0.073503 | 0.02037 | -3.61 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_15 | -0.057665 | 0.01807 | -3.19 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
JFTC_16 | -0.051543 | 0.01432 | -3.60 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
JFTCPUS_L1 | 0.725397 | 0.05135 | 14.13 | AR(JFTCPUS) LAG1 PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1983 through June 1998 |
Table 4. Revenue Ton-Miles, RMZZPUS(Million Miles Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
RMZZ | 18 | 117 | 1401678435 | 1198158 | 3461.2 | 0.9906 | 0.9892 | 1.843 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
RMZZ_0 | 85720.53 | 13264.2 | 6.46 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
RMZZ_YD | -0.052573 | 0.02782 | -1.89 | COEF FOR (YD87OUS*TIME) |
RMZZ_JQ | 692.118383 | 107.04775 | 6.47 | COEF FOR INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT |
RMZZ_D1 | 4493.95 | 3082.8 | 1.46 | COEF FOR DESERT STORM DUMMY VARIABLE |
RMZZ_06 | -15403.64 | 1205.5 | -12.78 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_07 | -7534.28 | 1472.0 | -5.12 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_08 | 9798.76 | 1586.3 | 6.18 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_09 | 5017.07 | 1674.3 | 3.00 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_10 | 3309.05 | 1709.3 | 1.94 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_11 | 22033.34 | 1723.8 | 12.78 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_12 | 25257.41 | 1717.5 | 14.71 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwiseY |
RMZZ_13 | 32596.85 | 1698.3 | 19.19 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_14 | 6388.76 | 1639.2 | 3.90 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_15 | 9106.08 | 1485.9 | 6.13 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ_16 | -64.092105 | 1186.9 | -0.05 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
RMZZ1_0 | -69.318575 | 57.54307 | -1.20 | PDL(RMZZ1,6,1) parameter for (L)**0 |
RMZZ1_1 | 20.584312 | 17.85456 | 1.15 | PDL(RMZZ1,6,1) parameter for (L)**1 |
RMZZ_L1 | 0.543135 | 0.07998 | 6.79 | AR(RMZZ) RMZZ LAG1 PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1987 through June 1998 |
Table 5. Available Ton-Miles, RMZTPUS(Million Miles Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
RMZT | 5 | 178 | 37745564 | 212053.7 | 460.49292 | 0.9958 | 0.9957 | 2.179 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
RMZT_0 | 2996.16 | 517.08682 | 5.79 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
RMZT1_0 | 0.033259 | 0.0019163 | 17.36 | PDL(RMZT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**0 |
RMZT1_1 | -0.00894792 | 0.0006657 | -13.44 | PDL(RMZT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**1 |
RMZT1_2 | 0.00066406 | 0.00005146 | 12.90 | PDL(RMZT1,12,2) parameter for (L)**2 |
RMZT_L1 | 0.742709 | 0.05109 | 14.54 | AR(RMZT) LAG1 PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1983 through June 1998 |
Table 6. Consumer Ticket Prices, ACTKFUS(Index--1982-84=100)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
ACTK | 15 | 145 | 1793 | 12.36496 | 3.51639 | 0.9886 | 0.9875 | 1.673 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
ACTK_0 | 1.299318 | 2.45363 | 0.53 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
ACTK_JK | 0.032108 | 0.02521 | 1.27 | COEF FOR JKTCUUS |
ACTK_T | 0.093061 | 0.02767 | 3.36 | COEF FOR TIME |
ACTK_06 | 0.231623 | 1.35503 | 0.17 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_07 | 0.733300 | 1.35494 | 0.54 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_08 | 1.631953 | 1.35890 | 1.20 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_09 | -0.484229 | 1.36344 | -0.36 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_10 | -1.365628 | 1.38532 | -0.99 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_11 | -0.427132 | 1.38510 | -0.31 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_12 | 0.654107 | 1.38601 | 0.47 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_13 | -1.750104 | 1.38192 | -1.27 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_14 | -0.262409 | 1.38149 | -0.19 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_15 | 0.868139 | 1.38410 | 0.63 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_16 | 0.486494 | 1.38128 | 0.35 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
ACTK_R1 | 0.862934 | 0.04072 | 21.19 | ACTKFUS LAGGED ONE MONTH |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1985 through June 1998 |
Table 7. Distillate Deliveries to Transportation Sector, DFACPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
DFAC | 15 | 105 | 0.17849 | 0.0016999 | 0.04123 | 0.9482 | 0.9413 | 2.265 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
DFAC_01 | -0.211682 | 0.08189 | -2.59 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
DFAC_JQ | 1.242792 | 0.17378 | 7.15 | COEF OF ZOMNIUS |
DFAC_06 | 0.071693 | 0.01922 | 3.73 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_07 | 0.137534 | 0.01871 | 7.35 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_08 | 0.155422 | 0.01975 | 7.87 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_09 | 0.172453 | 0.02161 | 7.98 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_10 | 0.208423 | 0.02342 | 8.90 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_11 | 0.154461 | 0.02616 | 5.90 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_12 | 0.219064 | 0.02386 | 9.18 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_13 | 0.115236 | 0.02650 | 4.35 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_14 | 0.127620 | 0.02174 | 5.87 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_15 | 0.069430 | 0.02089 | 3.32 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_16 | 0.048507 | 0.01902 | 2.55 | DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise |
DFAC_P | -0.00024447 | 0.0005678 | -0.43 | COEF OF INFLATION-ADJ. DIESEL PRODUCER PRICE |
DFAC_R1 | 0.365476 | 0.08599 | 4.25 | COEF OF LAGGED DEPENDENT VARIABLE |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 8. Distillate Deliveries to Residential Sector, DFRCPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
DFRC | 15 | 105 | 0.09034 | 0.0008604 | 0.02933 | 0.9152 | 0.9039 | 1.931 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
DFRC_01 | 0.354315 | 0.03105 | 11.41 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
DFRC_R1 | 0.358629 | 0.05839 | 6.14 | COEF OF LAG(DFRCPUS) |
DFRC_W | 0.00683214 | 0.0011026 | 6.20 | COEF OF ZWHDDNO/ZSAJQUS |
DFRC_06 | -0.030475 | 0.01334 | -2.28 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_07 | -0.081988 | 0.01335 | -6.14 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_08 | -0.118227 | 0.01381 | -8.56 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_09 | -0.132633 | 0.01478 | -8.97 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_10 | -0.116809 | 0.01586 | -7.37 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_11 | -0.136783 | 0.01585 | -8.63 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_12 | -0.100082 | 0.01645 | -6.08 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_13 | -0.092003 | 0.01559 | -5.90 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_14 | -0.127728 | 0.01598 | -7.99 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_15 | -0.103111 | 0.01575 | -6.55 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_16 | -0.00941035 | 0.01488 | -0.63 | DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise |
DFRC_17 | 0.082404 | 0.01014 | 8.12 | COEF OF DFR89*(OCT....MAR) |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 9. Distillate Deliveries to Commercial Sector, DFCCPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
DFCC | 16 | 104 | 0.02784 | 0.0002677 | 0.01636 | 0.9198 | 0.9083 | 2.054 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
DFCC_01 | 0.312300 | 0.03470 | 9.00 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
DFCC_R1 | 0.419497 | 0.06405 | 6.55 | COEF OF LAG(DFCCPUS) |
DFCC_W | 0.00403893 | 0.0006026 | 6.70 | COEF OF ZWHDDNO/ZSAJQUS |
DFCC_06 | -0.013865 | 0.0074111 | -1.87 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_07 | -0.042152 | 0.0074341 | -5.67 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_08 | -0.167093 | 0.02002 | -8.34 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_09 | -0.172058 | 0.02161 | -7.96 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_10 | -0.162039 | 0.02252 | -7.20 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_11 | -0.172086 | 0.02255 | -7.63 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_12 | -0.152106 | 0.02296 | -6.62 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_13 | -0.148005 | 0.02238 | -6.61 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_14 | -0.056300 | 0.0091164 | -6.18 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_15 | -0.043384 | 0.0088915 | -4.88 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_16 | 0.00771132 | 0.0083482 | 0.92 | DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise |
DFCC_17 | -0.00064635 | 0.00009138 | -7.07 | COEF OF TIME |
DFCC_18 | -0.00017427 | 0.00006858 | -2.54 | COEF OF DFR89*(OCT....MAR) |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 10. Distillate Deliveries to Industrial Sector, DFICPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
DFIC | 13 | 107 | 1.18551 | 0.01108 | 0.10526 | 0.8112 | 0.7900 | 1.921 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
DFIC_01 | 0.879645 | 0.03585 | 24.53 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
DFIC_W | 0.027397 | 0.0061942 | 4.42 | COEF OF ZWHDDUS(OCT...APR) |
DFIC_06 | -0.00662425 | 0.04742 | -0.14 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_07 | -0.124752 | 0.04769 | -2.62 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_08 | -0.362939 | 0.04892 | -7.42 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_09 | -0.512957 | 0.04892 | -10.48 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_10 | -0.520993 | 0.04892 | -10.65 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_11 | -0.660543 | 0.04892 | -13.50 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_12 | -0.573698 | 0.04892 | -11.73 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_13 | -0.452003 | 0.04892 | -9.24 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_14 | -0.307370 | 0.04948 | -6.21 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_15 | -0.260302 | 0.04943 | -5.27 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
DFIC_16 | -0.128833 | 0.04835 | -2.66 | DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 11. No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Volume, D2RCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
D2RC | 12 | 84 | 0.38906 | 0.0046316 | 0.06806 | 0.9476 | 0.9407 | 0.938 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
D2RC_HC | 0.883638 | 0.02666 | 33.15 | COEFFICIENT OF DFHCPUS |
D2RC_01 | 0.070699 | 0.03392 | 2.08 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_02 | 0.052696 | 0.03342 | 1.58 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_03 | -0.066773 | 0.03206 | -2.08 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_04 | -0.196637 | 0.02967 | -6.63 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_05 | -0.299727 | 0.02857 | -10.49 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_06 | -0.366607 | 0.02853 | -12.85 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_07 | -0.374312 | 0.02833 | -13.21 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_08 | -0.364299 | 0.02880 | -12.65 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_09 | -0.330169 | 0.02922 | -11.30 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_10 | -0.242199 | 0.02962 | -8.18 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
D2RC_11 | -0.096021 | 0.03027 | -3.17 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1988 through December 1995 |
Table 12. No. 2 Diesel Sales through Company Outlets, DSTCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
DSTC | 14 | 82 | 0.04286 | 0.0005227 | 0.03275 | 0.5057 | 0.4274 | 2.702 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
DSTC_AC | -0.045544 | 0.10231 | -0.45 | COEFFICIENT OF DFACPUS |
DSTC_T | 0.00278533 | 0.0011839 | 2.35 | COEF OF TIME |
DSTC_01 | -0.00044608 | 0.01062 | -0.04 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_02 | 0.023059 | 0.01077 | 2.14 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_03 | 0.048338 | 0.01391 | 3.47 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_04 | 0.047738 | 0.01758 | 2.72 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_05 | 0.037246 | 0.02037 | 1.83 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_06 | 0.051557 | 0.02385 | 2.16 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_07 | 0.036514 | 0.02534 | 1.44 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_08 | 0.060478 | 0.02501 | 2.42 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_09 | 0.044542 | 0.01740 | 2.56 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_10 | 0.058784 | 0.01499 | 3.92 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
DSTC_11 | 0.021883 | 0.0089118 | 2.46 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
DSTCPUS_L1 | 0.990387 | 0.01637 | 60.52 | AR(DSTCPUS) LAG1 |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st. order autocorrelation
Estimation period: January 1988 through December 1995 |
Table 13. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Transportation Sector, RFACPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
RFAC | 8 | 112 | 0.04179 | 0.0003731 | 0.01932 | 0.7508 | 0.7352 | 2.309 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
RFAC_01 | -0.128269 | 0.08366 | -1.53 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
RFAC_D1 | -0.085322 | 0.01135 | -7.52 | COEF OF D93ON |
RFAC_Q | 0.000093579 | 0.00001406 | 6.65 | COEF OF GDPQXUS |
RFAC_06 | 0.030060 | 0.0054923 | 5.47 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
RFAC_11 | -0.034270 | 0.0062490 | -5.48 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
RFAC_12 | -0.022268 | 0.0069096 | -3.22 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
RFAC_13 | -0.028563 | 0.0062491 | -4.57 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
RFACPUSX_L1 | 0.508833 | 0.08168 | 6.23 | AR(RFACPUSX) PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 14. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Commercial Sector, RFCCPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
RFCC | 15 | 105 | 0.00690 | 0.0006568 | 0.0081043 | 0.9186 | 0.9078 | 1.967 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
RFCC_01 | 0.235532 | 0.01202 | 19.59 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
RFCC_W | 0.00127081 | 0.0003928 | 3.24 | COEF OF ZWHDPUS DEVS |
RFCC_T | -0.00058393 | 0.00006023 | -9.69 | COEF OF TIME |
RFCC_06 | -0.00266345 | 0.0028129 | -0.95 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_07 | -0.015933 | 0.0036101 | -4.41 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_08 | -0.035294 | 0.0040593 | -8.69 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_09 | -0.044776 | 0.0043174 | -10.37 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_10 | -0.044341 | 0.0044391 | -9.99 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_11 | -0.047039 | 0.0044802 | -10.50 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_12 | -0.041679 | 0.0044497 | -9.37 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_13 | -0.036881 | 0.0043400 | -8.50 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_14 | -0.032145 | 0.0041477 | -7.75 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_15 | -0.024591 | 0.0037572 | -6.54 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
RFCC_16 | -0.00136674 | 0.0029723 | -0.46 | DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise |
RFCCPUSX_L1 | 0.661653 | 0.07318 | 9.04 | AR(RFCCPUSX) PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 15. Residual Fuel Oil Deliveries to Industrial Sector, RFICPUSX(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
RFIC | 15 | 105 | 0.067012 | 0.00063821 | 0.07989 | 0.6225 | 0.5722 | 1.946 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
RFIC_01 | 0.648956 | 0.06027 | 10.77 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
RFIC_W | 0.016321 | 0.0046641 | 3.50 | COEF OF ZWHDPUS |
RFIC_P | -64.646081 | 20.50893 | -3.15 | COEF OF RFTCUUS/NGICUUS |
RFIC_T | -0.00092452 | 0.0002137 | -4.33 | COEF OF TIME |
RFIC_06 | -0.00262635 | 0.03604 | -0.07 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_07 | -0.074684 | 0.03624 | -2.06 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_08 | -0.091517 | 0.03668 | -2.50 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_09 | -0.197522 | 0.03720 | -5.31 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_10 | -0.191883 | 0.03729 | -5.15 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_11 | -0.188084 | 0.03740 | -5.03 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_12 | -0.216752 | 0.03753 | -5.78 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_13 | -0.206202 | 0.03734 | -5.52 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_14 | -0.130755 | 0.03786 | -3.45 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_15 | -0.139019 | 0.03757 | -3.70 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
RFIC_16 | 0.015876 | 0.03671 | 0.43 | DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1986 through December 1995 |
Table 16. Ethane Demand (Deseasonalized), ETTCPUSA(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
ETH | 4 | 83 | 0.10298 | 0.0012407 | 0.03522 | 0.6110 | 0.5969 | 1.946 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
ETH_0 | -0.109734 | 0.10248 | -1.07 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
ETH_1 | 0.00072036 | 0.0014385 | 0.50 | COEF OF D2WHUUSA/NGEUDUSA |
ETH_2 | 0.674733 | 0.07733 | 8.73 | COEF OF ZO28IUS |
ETTCPUSA_L1 | 0.151643 | 0.10913 | 1.39 | AR(ETTCPUSA) PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation
Estimation period: January 1991 through June 1998 |
Table 17. LPG Except Ethane Demand (Deseasonalized), LXTCPUSA(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
LXT | 6 | 166 | 0.95106 | 0.0057293 | 0.07098 | 0.7098 | 0.7010 | 1.938 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
LXT0 | 0.178047 | 0.05293 | 3.36 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
LXT1 | 0.015921 | 0.0032460 | 4.90 | COEF FOR (ZWHDPUS-ZWHNPUS)/ZSAJQUS |
LXT2 | 0.241695 | 0.06482 | 3.73 | COEF FOR LAG(LXTCPUSA) |
LXT3 | 0.734437 | 0.07890 | 9.31 | COEF FOR ZO28IUS |
LXT4 | -0.198266 | 0.07978 | -2.49 | COEF FOR D9001 |
Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1984 through June 1998 |
Table 18. Propane Demand, PRTCPUS(Million Barrels Per day)
Equation | DF Model | DF Error | SSE | MSE | Root MSE | R-Square | Adj R-Sq | Durbin-Watson |
PRTC | 14 | 135 | 0.18522 | 0.0013720 | 0.03704 | 0.9761 | 0.9737 | 2.200 |
Parameter | Estimate | Approx. Std. Err. | 'T' Ratio | Label |
PRTC_01 | 0.042608 | 0.04493 | 0.95 | CONSTANT COEFFICIENT |
PRTC_Q | 0.850497 | 0.02961 | 28.73 | COEF FOR LXTCPUS |
PRTC_06 | 0.015777 | 0.01193 | 1.32 | JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_07 | -0.00515728 | 0.01488 | -0.35 | FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_08 | -0.035477 | 0.01809 | -1.96 | MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_09 | -0.066132 | 0.02076 | -3.19 | APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_10 | -0.080836 | 0.02284 | -3.54 | MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_11 | -0.099938 | 0.02298 | -4.35 | JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_12 | -0.090599 | 0.02201 | -4.12 | JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_13 | -0.047225 | 0.02131 | -2.22 | AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_14 | -0.041910 | 0.01870 | -2.24 | SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_15 | -0.034318 | 0.01600 | -2.14 | OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise |
PRTC_16 | -0.032062 | 0.01250 | -2.56 | NOV = 1 if Novermber, 0 otherwise |
PRTCPUS_L1 | 0.582723 | 0.07024 | 8.30 | AR(PRTCPUS) LAG1 PARAMETER |
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st.-order autocorrelation
Estimation period: January 1986 through June 1998 |
File last modified: October 28, 1998
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