CB-03-62FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Friday, April 11, 2003
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2001 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on April 30. |
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $311.5 billion, an increase of 2.1 percent (±0.9%) from the previous month and up 5.3 percent (±1.0%) from March 2002. Total sales for the January 2003 through March 2003 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2003 to February 2003 percent change was revised from -1.6 percent (±0.9%) to -1.3 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 2.2 percent (±0.9%) from February and were 5.3 percent (±1.1%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 18.9 percent (±2.2%) from March 2002 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent (±6.7%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Millions of dollars) 2003 2003 2003 2002 2002 NAICS Kind of Business Mar Feb Jan Code adv. prel. final Mar(r) Feb(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 311,472 305,185 309,355 295,884 295,916 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 235,808 233,335 234,723 225,078 224,482 Retail ....................................... 282,079 276,014 280,184 267,963 267,919 GAFO............................................. (*) 80,140 80,279 79,142 79,401 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,664 71,850 74,632 70,806 71,434 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 69,219 65,526 68,377 64,727 65,258 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,868 7,753 7,945 7,935 7,971 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,694 7,677 7,701 7,714 7,732 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 5,507 5,547 5,507 5,520 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,170 2,154 2,207 2,212 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 27,461 25,451 27,019 25,724 25,460 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 21,811 23,386 22,233 22,176 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,922 41,003 41,225 40,065 40,031 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,799 36,876 37,052 36,010 35,969 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,631 2,629 2,642 2,640 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 15,840 15,773 15,760 15,033 15,084 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 13,405 13,360 12,658 12,666 447 Gasoline stations................................ 22,056 22,124 21,576 18,549 17,862 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,846 14,678 14,887 14,654 14,740 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 831 837 882 886 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,866 2,893 2,850 2,936 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,797 1,784 1,814 1,868 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,171 7,250 7,424 7,446 7,396 452 General merchandise stores....................... 39,257 39,125 38,644 37,720 37,775 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,238 18,285 18,234 19,129 19,278 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 20,840 20,410 18,591 18,497 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 17,485 17,141 15,494 15,389 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,355 3,269 3,097 3,108 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,225 9,153 9,370 9,281 9,463 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 14,075 14,177 14,001 13,036 12,971 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 9,541 9,534 9,158 9,227 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 29,393 29,171 29,171 27,921 27,997 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2003
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 3 month total % Chg. 2003 2003 2003 2002 2002 NAICS Kind of Business 2003 from Mar Feb Jan Code 2002 adv. prel. final Mar Feb Retail & food services, total.................... 858,957 4.3 307,188 271,185 280,584 295,808 262,575 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 645,586 4.4 227,989 204,518 213,079 221,815 195,975 Retail ....................................... 775,741 4.3 277,384 244,669 253,688 267,161 237,126 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 67,608 68,362 76,089 66,693 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 213,371 4.2 79,199 66,667 67,505 73,993 66,600 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 195,701 4.3 72,818 61,070 61,813 67,963 61,147 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,838 52,307 57,367 51,645 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,597 5,692 6,030 5,453 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 21,984 -0.6 7,711 6,916 7,357 7,816 7,126 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 3,943 4,165 4,509 4,158 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,973 3,192 3,307 2,968 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 21,497 -0.7 7,288 6,846 7,363 7,348 6,942 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 4,824 5,231 5,055 4,874 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,022 2,132 2,293 2,068 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 67,461 4.1 25,602 19,942 21,917 23,887 20,152 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 17,798 19,668 20,832 18,096 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 117,485 1.7 40,081 37,132 40,272 40,692 36,216 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 106,633 1.7 36,321 33,631 36,681 36,766 32,768 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,207 2,279 2,489 2,215 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 46,505 4.5 15,792 14,969 15,744 15,364 14,300 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 12,775 13,520 12,911 12,058 447 Gasoline stations................................ 60,872 20.7 21,902 19,314 19,656 18,493 15,576 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 36,587 0.2 13,671 11,903 11,013 14,132 11,887 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 633 684 833 676 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,290 2,225 3,010 2,328 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,658 3,643 4,746 3,615 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,477 1,343 1,928 1,530 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 19,001 -2.2 6,375 5,677 6,949 6,761 5,813 452 General merchandise stores....................... 101,848 3.3 36,853 32,894 32,101 36,638 31,444 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 45,521 -6.1 16,638 14,640 14,243 18,301 15,408 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 14,867 14,503 18,663 15,703 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 18,254 17,858 18,337 16,036 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 15,439 15,187 15,339 13,435 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,815 2,671 2,998 2,601 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 25,713 -1.4 8,605 8,460 8,648 8,759 8,727 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 43,417 10.3 14,305 13,949 15,163 13,278 12,343 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 8,530 9,439 8,938 8,203 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 83,216 4.7 29,804 26,516 26,896 28,647 25,449 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variatons, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Percent Change) Mar Feb 2003 2003 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2003 2002 2003 2002 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +2.1 +5.3 -1.3 +3.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.1 +4.8 -0.6 +3.9 Retail .................................. +2.2 +5.3 -1.5 +3.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +5.3 +6.9 -3.7 +0.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +5.6 +6.9 -4.2 +0.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.5 -0.8 -2.4 -2.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +7.9 +6.8 -5.8 0.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.2 +2.1 -0.5 +2.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.2 +2.2 -0.5 +2.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.4 +5.4 +0.1 +4.6 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.3 +18.9 +2.5 +23.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +1.1 +1.3 -1.4 -0.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -1.1 -3.7 -2.3 -2.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +4.1 +1.2 +3.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.3 -4.7 +0.3 -5.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.8 -0.6 -2.3 -3.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.7 +8.0 +1.3 +9.3 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.8 +5.3 0.0 +4.2 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Percent Change) Mar Feb 2003 2003 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2003 2002 2003 2002 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +13.3 +3.8 -3.3 +3.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +11.5 +2.8 -4.0 +4.4 Retail .................................. +13.4 +3.8 -3.6 +3.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +18.8 +7.0 -1.2 +0.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +19.2 +7.1 -1.2 -0.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.5 -1.3 -6.0 -2.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +6.5 -0.8 -7.0 -1.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +28.4 +7.2 -9.0 -1.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +7.9 -1.5 -7.8 +2.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +8.0 -1.2 -8.3 +2.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +5.5 +2.8 -4.9 +4.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ +13.4 +18.4 -1.7 +24.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +14.9 -3.3 +8.1 +0.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +12.3 -5.7 -18.3 -2.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +12.0 +0.6 +2.5 +4.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +13.6 -9.1 +2.8 -5.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.7 -1.8 -2.2 -3.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +2.6 +7.7 -8.0 +13.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +12.4 +4.0 -1.4 +4.2 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2003 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Source of Data: The Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey each month to provide an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. The Advance Monthly Retail Survey is a voluntary survey of a sub-sample of about 5,000 firms selected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Firms responding to this survey account for approximately 65% of the dollar volume estimate. Reliability of Estimates: The reliability of the estimates is a function of sampling and nonsampling errors. The margin of sampling error, as included on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. For example,if the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Nonsampling error, on the other hand, can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling error. Additional survey information is available at www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
4th Quarter 2002 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
