Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
000 FXUS62 KMLB 150717 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .DISCUSSION... ...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY... ...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY... ...COLD FRONT MON NGT-TUE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS... TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS WHAT EXISTED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S INTERIOR/LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR ECSB DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH FARTHER PROGRESSION INLAND EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WINDS WILL EXIST OUT OF THE S/SE AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WEST-EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED NEAR SUNSET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. MODEL QPF INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THESE COLLIDING SEA BREEZES HOWEVER QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CLOUDS FROM SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED PATCHY FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 60S. MONDAY-TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE MORNING WILL ALLOW LOW LVL SW FLOW ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN SECTIONS WITH SLOW INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND VERY LATE AFTN/EVENING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY AND METRO ORLANDO TO VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS FROM AROUND IN THE LOWER 80S BEACHES TO MID 80S INTERIOR. WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR EVENING ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS THAT SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY TWD THE COAST NORTH OF MELBOURNE. SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. 00Z GFS LOOKS A BIT FAST WITH FRONT AND WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE ON SPEED WITH SLOWER NAM MODEL. EXPECT LOW LVL WINDS TO BECOME NE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE AFTN HOLDING HIGHS IN MID 70S ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COAST AND AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THOUGH COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WED-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FLOW VEERING TO ONSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WED AND DRY THINGS OUT FOR THU (THOUGH GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF). ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE OFF THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE N/NNE FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LWR-MID 70S ACROSS N CSTL SECTIONS. EXPECT ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO ALSO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO START THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SAT-SUN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC SAT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LVL ATLC MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO START TO PUSH ONSHORE BY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 13Z IN ANY PATCHY FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. W-E COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND SUNSET WITH ISO -SHRA POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE CREATING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE. && .MARINE...NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT OFFSHORE TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. S/SE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE. AS FLOW VEERS WED...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. SOME WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THU...WILL ALLOW FOR ONE GOOD BOATING DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AFTN INTO SAT. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY THEN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW INTO MID WEEK WILL KEEP MIN RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 62 83 62 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 86 65 86 63 / 10 20 10 20 MLB 83 65 84 62 / 10 10 10 20 VRB 81 64 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH LONG TERM....VOLKMER
