Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBTV 150215 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1015 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THIN CLOUD SHIELDS TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA AND GOING FORECAST LOOKS REAL GOOD. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO FORECAST LEVELS AND THUS SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY TWEAK TO GRIDS WAS TO INGEST CURRENT CONDITIONS TO MAKE OVERNIGHT TRENDS A BIT MORE REPRESENTATIVE.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR 50F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -2C...UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE W/ ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTING STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL DRAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH WEAK NORTH NORTHEAST WNDS. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS MORE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE COOL ON MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR OVER THIS PERIOD BUT LOW RH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOWPACK. OVERALL GOOD MAPLE SYRUP WX PATTERN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY. RETURN SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT APRCHG FROM ONTARIO/GRTLKS RGN WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CDFNT WILL THEN DROP SEWRD ACRS FA LATE TUE NITE THRU WEDNESDAY...ACPYD BY SCT SHWRS. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS TUE NITE...FROM SFC TO 850 MB...SO PTYPE EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BTWN MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA...AND WHETHER OR NOT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING A WAVE WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING. HAVE KEPT IN CHC RAIN/SNOW FOR WED NITE INTO THURS...WITH PTYPE GOING TO MAINLY SNOW LATE WED NITE INTO THURS MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE RGN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURS NITE/FRI ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WX. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHC FOR SNOW/RAIN SHWRS BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN A FEW LOW CLOUDS IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUMONT NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...DUMONT LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...MB
