FXUS61 KPHI 100055
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
851 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

.UPDATE...

NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT AS IT 
CROSSED REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE 
WERE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY 
OF RAINFALL. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCU LAYER 
OVER PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT. THE 
INCREASINGLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE HILLS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP 
THE DECK AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPDATED FCST ALREADY SENT TO REMOVE SHOWERS 
AND BRING THE SKY COVER TO P/C AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. 


.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ONLY WX W/B IN THE NEXT FEW HRS OR SO AS A COLD FRONT MVG THRU E PA 
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE HUMID TROPICAL AIR OUT 
TO SEA AND BRING IN REFRESHING AIR FM THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

NOTHING MAJOR IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LT REGIME. A WEAK FNT MIGHT 
PUSH THRU MID PERIOD BUT LACK OF AVLB MOISTURE SHLD LIMIT ANY SHRA 
ACTVTY. AS LT PERIOD END APPROACHES, ALL EYES WILL BE ON HURRICANE 
IVAN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST EARLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
30 KT, BUT WINDS BECOME SW AND THEN W BEHIND THE FRONT AND SPEEDS 
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING WINDS TO EVENTUALLY 
BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
FORM THIS EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER. DRIER AIR MOVES IN 
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.

&&

.WEATHER HISTORY...

ON THIS DAY IN 1944 THE "GREAT ATLANTIC HURRICANE" RAVAGED THE EAST 
COAST. THE STORM KILLED 22 PERSONS AND CAUSED $63 MILLION DAMAGE IN 
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA, THEN BESEIGED NEW ENGLAND KILLING 390 
PERSONS AND CAUSING ANOTHER $100 MILLION IN DAMAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MD...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ450>455 THROUGH FRIDAY.   
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONE ANZ430>431 TONIGHT.

$$

UPDATE...OHARA
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...WOODWORTH
AVIATION/MARINE...RNS
WEATHER HISTORY...WOODWORTH