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000
acus11 kwns 111638
swomcd
spc mcd 111638
txz000 - 111815-
mesoscale discussion 0227
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1138 am cdt wed mar 11 2009
areas affected ... sw tx
concerning ... severe potential ... watch unlikely
valid 111638z - 111815z
the threat for hail may increase early this afternoon across the srn
tx hill country. the threat should remain marginal and a ww is not
anticipated attm.
a slow moving cold front is located from del rio ewd to near
victoria. north of this boundary ... sfc temps are quite cool but
forecast soundings suggest about 500 j/kg of mucape exists in the
700 to 500 mb layer. thunderstorms are developing in this weakly
unstable airmass where isentropic lift is occurring over the top of
the cooler air. in addition ... ruc analysis shows a 55 to 70 kt
mid - level jet located from nrn mexico newd across wcntrl tx. this
jet is helping to create strong vertical shear profiles as evident
on the san angelo wsr - 88d vwp. the strong shear and cold air aloft
may support a marginal hail threat as the activity expands newd
across the mcd area this afternoon.
.. broyles.. 03/11/2009
... please see www. spc. noaa. gov for graphic product...
attn ... wfo ... ewx ... sjt...
lat ... lon 29459876 28819966 28590035 29090078 29710094 30430082
30890041 30889963 30629914 30189871 29459876