FXUS61 KAKQ 281407 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1005 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004 HAVE JUST UPDATED ALL FCST PRODUCTS. SOME MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES...POPS AND SKY COVER WERE NEEDED...ESP ACRS NRN AREAS WHERE VIS SATL LOOP/MODEL TIME SECTIONS SUGG MOCLDY CONDS. CLOUDS SHUD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPS ACRS NRN AREAS THIS AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED ABT A CAT. UPPED POPS TO GOOD CHC ACRS NR AREAS PER RADAR TRENDS. SRN HALF FCST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE THRU EARLY AFTN AND WL AID INSTABILITY. ISOLD/SCTD GUSTY TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG AND S OF NC-VA BDR GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR PROFILES VIA RUC SOUNDINGS. PREV DISC BLO: CULLEN ------------------------------------------------------------------- .SYNOPSIS...ANTHR ACTIVE WX DAY AHEAD AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONT TO DVLP AND MOVE E AHEAD OF SE MOVG CDFRNT. HIGH PRS FROM N PROVIDES AREA WITH A VRY NICE DAY SAT AS FRNTL BNDRY STALLS ACROSS CAROLINAS. SAID BNDRY TO BEGIN RETURNING N AS WRM FRNT LATE SUN INTO ERLY MON. FA BACK INTO SOUPY AIRMASS MEMORIAL DAY ALONG WITH MORE S/W IMPULSES TO KICK OFF LATE DAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A SERIES OF DSPTG FRNTS APPRCHS THRU MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY ASSCTD WITH FIRST S/W PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA THIS AM B4 MOVG NE OF RGN THIS AFTRN. HOWEVER YET ANTHR S/W (AS SEEN ON H2O VPR LOOP MOVG INTO WRN TN) SHUD BE AFTRN WX PLAYER AS THIS FTR MOVS OUT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT. SRN AREAS SHUD SEE THE MOST SUN TDY...BOOSTING TMPS WELL INTO 80S. THUS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE UNTAPPED AND MOST UNSTABLE FOR TSTRM DVLPMNT. AREA NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC...BY RGN JUST SW OF FA IS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN ALL AREAS TDY...HIGHEST NRN HALF THIS AM. BNDRY SAGS S INTO CAROLINAS TONITE THEN STALLS IVOF NC/SC BRDR BY SAT NITE. THIS ALLOWS A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE N TO BUILD S ACROSS FA. THUS SAT SHUD FTR ABUNDANT SUN WITH TMPS ARND 80. SFC HIGH MOVS FRTHR E SUN...ALLOWING BNDRY TO BEGIN LIFTG BACK N AS A WRM FRNT SUN NITE. DATA SUGGESTING ENUF INSTABILITY WITH H85 BNDRY FOR SCT POPS LATE SUN AND SUN NITE SRN CNTYS. FA IN WRM SCTR MEMORIAL DAY WITH YET ANTHR IMPULSE APPRCHG RGN. WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT MON ALONG WITH RAISING TMPS WELL INTO 80S TO NR 90 AGAIN. A SERIES OF BNDRYS APPRCH RGN TUE AND WED WHICH SHUD SET OFF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION. DRYER AIR RETURNS FROM HIGH PRS TO THE N COME THU. && .MARINE...NO FLAGS. S WNDS TO VEER TDY THEN BECOME N BEHIND CDFRNT TONITE & FRI. WNDS & SEAS XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA. && .AVIATION...VFR XCPT LCL MVFR CNDTNS IVOF TSTRMS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE.