FXUS64 KBRO 151428
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING STEADY AROUND 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN TO HOLD DOWN MOST CONVECTION. A FEW 
HEATING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. 
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER AFTER TODAY WITH MOISTURE BECOMING 
MORE CONFINED BELOW H9 AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 020 REPORTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8 KNOTS WITH 14 FOOT 
SEAS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AS IVAN REMAINS IN THE GULF 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY AFTER 
HURRICANE IVAN'S LANDFALL AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN WATERS AT LEAST 
THROUGH TODAY.  A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE WEST 
SIDE OF IVAN AS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED.   A COASTAL 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS 
HURRICANE IVAN MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  ALSO A 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEA WILL BE LOW ONCE AGAIN BY 
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. 
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALL DAY 
PLUS SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CU BUILD UP NEAR THE COAST. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF THIS 
MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST TX TODAY AS 
500MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY 
WILL EXTEND INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
HAVE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY NIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDING 
MAX TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THE 
SURFACE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND 
INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. A MORE ZONAL 
FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH IVAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SO 
WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS 
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AS IVAN MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE 
APPALACHIANS IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE 500MB TROUGH IS 
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE 
RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TX WEAKENS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY BRINGING A PACIFIC 
FRONT INTO WEST TX WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WARM 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY 
WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE MONDAY.

WITH AN 11 SECOND PERIOD. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED 
FOR THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS HURRICANE IVAN MOVES THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH 
SURF ADVISORY ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. WATER WILL BEGIN PILING UP ALONG 
THE COAST WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING AT 439 AM...WITH THE HIGH TIDE 
WATER LEVEL ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 
HALF FOOT BECAUSE OF IVAN. SOME MINOR BEACH FLOODING WAS REPORTED 
LAST NIGHT ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AT BEACH ACCESS NUMBER 6. THE 
HIGHEST WAVES WILL DEVELOP AND PEAK BY LATER TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...WITH 10 TO 12 FEET HEIGHTS POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE 
ZONES...BUT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING THURSDAY AFTER 
IVAN MAKES LANDFALL. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MIXED THROUGH THE 
FORECAST...BUT THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. 

CLOUDS ALL DAY PLUS SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CU BUILD UP NEAR THE 
COAST. MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TXZ251-256-257 TODAY.
SCA GMZ150-155-170-175 TODAY.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY TXZ251-256-257 TODAY.

&&

$$

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