Introduction.

The Impact of SETI.

Conclusions.

1. It is both timely and feasible to begin a serious search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

2. A significant SETI program with substantial potential secondary benefits can be undertaken with only modest resources.

3. Large systems of great capability can be built if needed.

4. SETI is intrinsically an international endeavor in which the United States can take a lead.

 

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Heaven and earth are large, yet in the whole of space they are but as a small grain of rice .... It is as if the whole of empty space were a tree, and heaven and earth were one of its fruits. Empty space is like a kingdom, and heaven and earth no more than a single individual person in that kingdom. Upon one tree there are many fruits, and in one kingdom many people. How unreasonable it would be to suppose that besides the heaven and earth which we can see there are no other heavens and no other earths?

Teng Mu, 13th Century philosopher

(translated by Joseph Needham)

In the enormous emptiness of space we can now recognize so many stars that we could count one hundred billion of them for each human being alive. Yet we know of only one inhabited planet, our Earth. The Earth has supported the development of life nurtured by one commonplace star, the nearby five-billion-year old Sun. We look out into the starry Universe quite unable to see within its compass any sign that we are not alone. The other planets near our Sun offer some hope to a search for other life, and indeed for many months Viking on the surface of Mars has been reporting the enigmatic chemical activity of the Martian soil. We remain uncertain, at the time of writing, whether the chemical changes are biological or inorganic in nature.

The web of life here on Earth is the consequence of a long complex sequence of natural selection by which life increased its scope and its variety, always exploiting the flood of energy bestowed directly or indirectly by the Sun. The Earth has seen fire and ice, yet it has provided steadily, for three billion years without a break, some environments to which life could adapt. Changes were never so drastic or so rapid that all survival became impossible, though particular species have arisen and died by the millions. Indeed, life has spread from its origins, probably near the seashore, to alpine peaks and ocean troughs, and has diversified almost beyond description. Our species and a few of our forebears have achieved considerable technological abilities and some degree of self-knowledge. Nor do we foresee any natural catastrophe ending this fabric of life until in due course the Sun itself runs out of nuclear fuel, some five billion years in the future.

We all know the starry sky at night, and on our deep photographs of the sky we see everywhere a dusting of small dots. Analysis of the light which caused those images, using its intensity and the details of its spectrum, has made it certain that such dots represent suns resembling our own, about which we know only that they are suns. Our own Sun with its cortege of planets would be just such another single dot, quite indistinguishable from a hundred million others at the distances we scan.

We have been able to understand in a general way how stars are born out of dense clouds of gas and dust in the interstellar spaces; we can see other stars in the transient stages of birth, as once was the Sun and its planets. Are planets always born in the spinning disk of gas out of which the [4] other suns form? Or is our own set of planets as rare as its central luminary is commonplace? We cannot now say, though we are sure that the processes that form stars and might have formed planets as well, were going on for billions of years before our solar system formed, and will outlast our Sun.

If around those other visible suns there spin other planets, hidden from us by the distances of space, it is at least possible that on some the work of natural selection has continued for times which could be five or ten billion years longer than the whole history of our Sun and Earth. We could conceive that life never arose on a given planet, or that it exhausted its resources of adaptability, to end in an algal monotony, or in total extinction. Or we can imagine the slow evolution of beings-not human able to control their world and themselves and to know the Universe.

In evolutionary diversity there is still unity. Squid and human see with eyes that evolved quite differently, and yet resemble each other, for they perform similar tasks. The big tuna, the extinct icthyosaur, and the dolphin resemble each other closely in streamlined form, and even somewhat in behavior. They are distinct evolutionary solutions to the problem of earning a living by predation upon fast-swimming fish; the three, fish, reptile, and mammal, have been molded alike by natural selection to solve the single dynamical problem of fast pursuit in the sea. Similarly, the way of life of H. sapiens appears to spread and to succeed; it seems to us that if natural selection has once built so subtle and successful a scheme, it can do so again. Sapient beings on other planets would in no way be our biological kin for they would share with us no common ancestor. But they might have converged with us in behavior; they might have evolved to culture, and then, say, to radio telescopes! Culture is a workable way of life, like hunting schools of mackerel. Indeed, we have seen that human cultural evolution, also, often converges: no less a development than writing was independently achieved by the Aztecs, the Chinese, and the peoples of the Middle East. On this basis, it would be consistent with the historical development of the great ideas of science to postulate that for a time of unknown duration, near an unknown number of stars, deliberate radio beacons or unintended radio leakage are present. This is a hypothesis untested, but capable of verification by experiment.

It is not idle curiosity to inquire whether other intelligent life has arisen and survived near some distant sun, beings in no way our biological kin. For by some sign of that presence we might come to learn, in a way, our own possible future. Indeed, the one most solid result of the calculus of chance which governs our thoughts about such uncertainty is this: intelligent beings out there- if they exist at all-almost surely form societies which have endured for a time long compared to the history of our own civilization, a time which might even reach the span of geological time itself.

Astronomers have real hope of detecting planets near other stars, especially relatively neighboring ones, by new optical or infrared measurements from ground or orbit. But detection of plant or animal life implies a landing such as we made on Mars, and this is well beyond our capabilities over interstellar distances.

[5] If we are to learn about distant life, it must make itself perceptible. As far as we can see, only life that has followed our own evolution to the extent of being able to send some mark of its presence across space can be found. This must mean that intelligence develops naturally out of evolving life, that it can make signals capable of traversing space, and that, for some period of time at least, it wants to make its presence known (or at least does not conceal it!). If these conditions exist anywhere, we might hope to detect creatures far older and more capable than ourselves. Exploration would then cross a new frontier; the frontier of an intelligence biologically wholly unrelated to our own.

How would such signals be made? Might super-Viking probes cross space? Might light flashes like stellar lighthouses show an intelligent presence? Much speculation has considered the situation (some of the variety of different ideas are presented in Complementary Document 1). The key facts seem to be that radio waves cross space well, and that the radio engineer has found means to detect extremely weak signals with large dishes and extremely sensitive receivers. Violent events on every scale, from explosions in galaxies to electrical instabilities on the planet Jupiter, have been recorded by radio astronomers. None of these signals appear to bear the marks of any but an astronomical origin, so far. Interesting as these have been, it remains true that radio energy compared to visible light is scarce in the Galaxy. Within the scope of present knowledge in our own Galaxy, a certain well-defined radio waveband (from about one meter to one centimeter) is, for natural reasons, the quietest region over the whole span of electromagnetic waves (see Section II-4).

This fact lies behind a remarkable event in human history. Almost imperceptibly, without really intending it, within the past two or three decades we have entered a new communicative epoch Until that time, we could have made no sound, no pattern or mark, no explosive flash of light on our small planet that could be detected far out among the stars by any means we understand. Space is too deep, and the stars are rivals too brilliant, for any mere faint human glow to become visible far away. Even the whole amount of sunlight reflected from a planet, a light source thousands of times more powerful than all the energy now at human disposal-is still beyond our ability to pick out at the distance of a nearby star. But our radio technique, only a generation or so old, has now reached such maturity that a signal sent from an existing radio dish on Earth, with sending and receiving devices already at hand, could be detected with ease across the Galaxy by a similar dish, if only it is pointed in the right direction at the right time, tuned to the right frequency. Such a lucky observer - or one who is patiently and systematically searching - would see us as unique, distinguished among all the stars, a strange source of coherent radio emission unprecedented in the Galaxy.

Or are we without precedent? Are we the first and only?

Or are there in fact somewhere among the hundred billion stars of the Galaxy other such beams, perhaps so many of them that our civilization, like our Sun, is to be counted as but one member of a numerous natural class? For such a radio beam cannot come, we think, from any glowing sphere of gas or drifting beam of particles. It can come only from something like our own complex artificial apparatus, far different from any star or planet, smaller, newer, much more [6] particular; something we would recognize as the product of other understanding and ingenious beings.

That is the topic of this technical report: the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, SETI.

We do not intend to send any signals out to add to those which have already gone out from our TV transmitters and our powerful radars. Rather, we want to listen, to search ail the directions of space, the many channels of the radio (and other) domains. to seek possible signals. Perhaps it will be only an accidental signal, as we have made ourselves. That would be harder to find. Or perhaps there is a deliberate signal, a beacon for identification, or even a network of communication. There seems no way to know without trying the search. This is an exploration of a new kind, an exploration we think both as uncertain anti as full of meaning as any that human beings have ever undertaken.

The search would be an expression of man's natural exploratory drive. The time is at hand when we can begin it in earnest. How far and hard we will need to work before we find a signal, or before we become at last convinced that our nature is rare in the Universe, we cannot now know.

[7] Whether the search for extraterrestrial intelligence succeeds or fails, its consequences will be extraordinary.

If we make a long dedicated search that fails, we will not have wasted our time. We will have developed important technology, with applications to many other aspects of our own civilization. We will surely have added greatly to our knowledge of the physical Universe. The global organization of a search for interstellar radio messages, quite apart from its outcome, can have a cohesive and constructive influence upon our view of the human condition. But above all, we will have strengthened belief in the near uniqueness of our species, our civilization and our planet. Lacking any detection, the conviction of our uniqueness would hardly ever reach certainty; it would form over a long time, less into sharp conclusions than into a kind of substructure of human thought, a ruling consensus of attitudes. If intelligent, technological life is rare or absent elsewhere, we will have learned how precious is our human culture, how unique our biological patrimony, painstakingly evolved over three or four thousand million years of tortuous evolutionary history. Even a growing possibility of such a finding will stress, as perhaps nothing else can, our lonely responsibilities to the human dangers of our time.

On the other hand, were we to locate but a single extraterrestrial signal, we would know immediately one great truth: that it is possible for a civilization to maintain an advanced technological state and not destroy itself. We might even learn that life and intelligence pervade the Universe. The sharpness of the impact of simple detection will depend on the circumstances of discovery. If we were to find real signals after only a few years of a modest search, there is little doubt the news would be sensational. If, on the other hand, signals were detected only after a protracted effort over generations with a large search system, the result might be less conspicuous.

Note well that it is likely that the early announcements of the detection of deliberate signals may turn out to be mistaken, not verified by further study and observation. They may be natural phenomena of a new kind, or some terrestrial signal, or even a hoax. (Indeed, this has already happened- more than once!) Press and public must use caution if we are to escape the volatile raising and dashing of great hopes. We stress the importance of a skeptical stance and the need for verification, because we hold that even a single genuine detection would in and of itself have enormous importance.

Of course it is very difficult to foresee the content of a signal except in the most general way. A signal could be a beacon- a deliberate transmission specifically for the purpose of attracting the attention of an emerging civilization like ourselves. Alternately, it could be a leakage signal similar to our own television broadcasts or radars, not intended for our detection. Whatever the signal, we would remind the reader that it will be a one-way transmission. Any messages in such a transmission would be a message between cultures, not between persons. We have human analogies at hand, in our long-continued interest in great books from the past, say the Greek philosophers; we ponder them afresh in each generation, without any hope of interrogating Socrates or arguing with Aristotle.

[8] The first authentic signals will attract intense headline attention. But after that the pace must slow. Perhaps we will learn only that the signal exists. This alone will be significant. We will know we are not alone. However, the information content of any signal could he rich. Study would continue for decades, even generations. Books and universities will be more suited for the news than the daily programs. If the signal is deliberate, decoding will be relatively easy, we expect, because the signal will be anticryptographic: made to reveal its own language coding. If the message comes by radio, both transmitting and receiving civilizations will have in common at least the details of radiophysics. (The commonality of mathematics and the physical sciences is the reason that many scientists expect the messages from extraterrestrial civilizations to be decodable&emdash; if in a slow and halting manner.) No one is wise enough to predict in detail what the consequences of such a decoding will be, because no one is wise enough to understand beforehand what the nature of the message will be.

Some have worried that a message from an advanced society might make us lose faith in our own, might deprive us of the initiative to make new discoveries if it seems that there are others who have made those discoveries already, or might have other negative consequences. But we point out that we are free to ignore an interstellar message if we find it offensive. Few of us have rejected schools because teachers and textbooks exhibit learning of which we were so far ignorant. If we receive a message, we are under no obligation to reply.^* If we do not choose to respond, there is no way for the transmitting civilization to determine that its message was received and understood on the tiny distant planet Earth. (Even a sweet siren song would be little risk, for we are bound by bonds of distance and time much more securely than was Ulysses tied to the mast.) The receipt and translation of a radio message from the depths of space seems to pose few dangers to mankind; instead it holds promise of philosophical and perhaps practical benefits for all of humanity.

Other imaginative and enthusiastic speculators foresee big technological gains, hints and leads of extraordinary value. They imagine too all sorts of scientific results, ranging from a valid picture of the past and the future of the Universe through theories of the fundamental particles to whole new biologies. Some conjecture that we might hear from near-immortals the views of distant and venerable thinkers on the deepest values of conscious beings and their societies! Perhaps we will forever become linked with a chain of rich cultures, a vast galactic network. Who can say?

If it is true that such signals might give us, so to speak, a view of one future for human history, they would take on even greater importance. Judging that importance lies quite outside the competence of the members of this committee, chosen mainly from natural scientists and engineers. We sought some advice from a group of persons trained in history and the evolution of culture, but it is plain that such broad issues of the human future go beyond what any small committee can usefully outline in a few days. The question deserves rather the serious and prolonged attention of many professionals from a wide range of disciplines anthropologists. artists, lawyers, politicians, philosophers, theologians - even more than that, the concern of all thoughtful persons, whether specialists or not. We must, all of us, consider the outcome of the [9] search. That search, we believe, is feasible; its outcome is truly important, either way. Dare we begin? For use who write here that question has step by step become instead: Dare we delay?

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Only a few decades ago most astronomers believed that planetary systems were extremely rare, that the solar system and the habitat for life that Earth provides might well be unique in the Galaxy. At the same time so little was known about the chemical basis for the origin of life that this event appeared to many to verge on the miraculous. No serious program for detecting extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) could arise in such an intellectual climate. Since then numerous advances in a number of apparently diverse sciences have eroded the reasons for expecting planetary systems and biogenesis on suitable planets to be unlikely. Indeed, theory today suggests that planetary systems may be the rule around solar type stars, and that the Universe, far from being barren, may be teeming with life, much of it highly evolved. (See Section II-1 and II-3.)

During the latter half of the last and the first part of this century, the slow rotation of the Sun stood as a formidable objection to the nebular hypothesis of Kant and Laplace, which proposed that planetary systems formed out of the same condensing cloud that produced the primary star. An initial rotation rapid enough to produce the Sun's planets should have produced a Sun spinning a thousand times faster - too fast to become a spherical star. As a result, various "catastrophic" theories of the origin of the solar system were proposed, all of which depended on events so rare as to make the solar system virtually unique.

Then, in the late 1930's, Spitzer showed that starstuff torn out by tidal or concussive forces would explode into space rather than condense into planets. Shortly thereafter research into plasma physics, and observations of solar prominences, revealed the magnetohydrodynamic coupling of ionized matter to magnetic fields, a mechanism whereby stars in the process of formation can slow their rotation. As a result, the theory in which planets condense out of the whirling lens of gas and dust that will become a star has regained wide acceptance. Planetary systems are now believed to exist around a substantial fraction of stars. (See Section II-3.)

Meanwhile the discoveries that the organic building blocks for DNA and proteins can be formed by natural processes out of molecules comprising the early atmosphere of Earth, and that many organic molecules are even formed in the depths of interstellar space, have made the spontaneous origin of life on suitable planets seem far more probable. Life appears to have developed on Earth almost as soon as seas had formed and chemical evolution had provided the building blocks. Earth has been lifeless for only a small fraction of its age. This leads many exobiologists today to look upon life as a very likely development, given a suitable planet. (See Section II-1.)

The present climate of belief makes it timely to consider a search for extraterrestrial life, but is such a search feasible? It is certainly out of the question, at our present level of technology or, indeed, at any level we can foresee, to mount an interstellar search by spaceship. On the other hand, we believe it is feasible to begin a search for signals radiated by other civilizations having technologies at least as advanced as ours. We can expect, with considerable confidence, that such [14] signals will consist of electromagnetic waves; no other known particle approaches the photon in ease of generation, direction and detection. None flies faster, none has less energy and is therefore cheaper than the radio frequency photon. It has long been argued that signals of extraterrestrial origin will be most apt to be detected in the so-called microwave window: wavelengths from about 0.5 to 30 cm. Natural noise sources rise to great height on either side of this window. making it the quietest part of the spectrum for everyone in the Galaxy. We concur with these arguments. (See Section II-4.)

Existing radio telescopes are capable of receiving signals from our interstellar neighbors. if of high power or if beamed at us by similar telescopes used as transmitters. The large antenna at Arecibo could detect its counterpart thousands of light years away. Indeed, it could detect transmissions from nearby stars less powerful hut similar to our own television and radars.

Terrestrial UHF and microwave emanations now fill a sphere some twenty light years in radius. This unintended announcement of our technological prowess is growing stronger each year and is expanding into space at the speed of light. The same phenomenon may well denote the presence of any technological society. In fact, our own radar leakage may have already been detected by a nearby civilization. In addition, advanced societies may radiate beacons for a variety of reasons, possibly merely to bring emerging societies into contact with a long established intelligent community of advanced societies throughout the Galaxy. A search begun today could detect signals of either type.

We propose a search for signals in the microwave part of the radio spectrum, but not at this time the sending of signals. Even though we expect our society to continue to radiate TV and radar signals we do not propose to increase our detectability by, say, intentionally beaming signals at likely stars. There is an immediate payoff if we receive a signal: transmission requires that we wait out the round trip light time before we can hope for any results. Transmission should be considered only in response to a received signal or after a prolonged listening program has failed to detect any signals. (See Section II-5.)

Not only is the technology for discovering ETI already at hand, but every passing year will see the radio frequency interference (RFI) problem grow worse while only modest improvements in technology can occur. (See Sections III-8 and III-9.) Perfect receivers would not double the sensitivity of a search system over that which we can already achieve. Given optimum data processing, large increases in sensitivity are to be had only by increasing collecting area. It is true that data processing technology is improving rapidly, but presently achievable data processing technology is adequate and inexpensive. Further, the techniques need to be developed in association with existing facilities and comprehensive searches made before it becomes evident that a more sensitive system is needed. Great discoveries are often the result more of courage and determination than of the ultimate in equipment. The Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria were not jet airliners, but they did the job.

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A large, expensive system is not now needed for SETI. If we but equip existing radio telescopes with low-cost state-of-the-art receiving and data processing devices, we will have both the sensitivity to explore the vicinity of nearby stars for transmitters similar to Earth's, and to explore the entire Galaxy for more powerful signals, or for signals beamed at us. Such explorations, even should they yield negative results, would decrease our uncertainty concerning whether intelligent life transmitting powerful signals may lie beyond our solar system. At the very least, it would be of great interest and some importance either to know we have near neighbors, or to be reasonably confident no nearby transmitting civilizations exist. If, after we have made such modest searches, it seems important to us to embark upon a more ambitious SETI program, such as contemplated by the Cyclops study, the experience we will have gained will prove not only invaluable, but essential. Moreover, we expect to derive spin-off benefits of no small significance.

SETI Hardware

The arguments for electromagnetic waves as the communications medium seem compelling. The case for the microwave window seems very strong. The reasons for preferring the low end of the window are also strong, but not so strong that higher frequencies in the window should be ignored. The "water hole" between the H and OH lines is an especially attractive band that may be ideal for long range beacons. (See Sections II-4 and III-1.)

ETI signals, particularly those intended for detection by other searching societies, will probably be narrow in bandwidth compared with natural sources and may have monochromatic components which are as narrow as the interstellar medium permits. This increases their detectability at a given radiated power and distinguishes them from the natural background. The hardware needed for SETI therefore consists of an antenna or antenna system, low-noise wide-band receivers to cover the low-frequency end of the microwave window, means of resolving the received spectrum to a very high degree and means to search out and identify automatically any spectral anomalies.

Since halving the system noise temperature is equivalent to doubling the system sensitivity, it is important in SETI to have the lowest noise receivers that can be built. The background temperature in the preferred frequency region is only 6 K to 8 K (3 to 5 K in space) so every degree of reduction in receiver noise temperature is significant. The development of suitable low noise receivers represents a simple extension of present microwave technology and is not an expensive program. It would also benefit deep space communications and radio astronomy. (See Section III-5.)

To search for narrow band signals that may be anywhere in a wide frequency band and to do so in a reasonable time has been one of the major challenges of a SETI. In the Cyclops system concept the received signal was optically transformed into a high-resolution power spectrum. Since [20] 1971 the growth of large-scale integrated circuit technology has been spectacular. It now appears possible to build, at reasonable cost, solid state fast Fourier analyzers capable of resolving the instantaneous bandwidth into at least a million channels on a real time basis. Development of such equipment is again a modest undertaking and the equipment would be very valuable for many other uses besides SETI. (For example see Section III-5.)

To complete the data processing it is necessary to examine the power spectrum or a succession of samples of the power spectrum for any sort of significant pattern such as a sustained peak that may drift slowly in frequency, a regularly recurring peak, or arrays of regularly spaced peaks, to name but a few. The data rates are so great that this pattern recognition must be automated. The principal problems associated with the pattern recognition system are the amount of data storage needed and the identification of the types of patterns to be recognized. Only a few years ago these could have presented severe difficulties, but the solid state electronics revolution has so reduced the cost of memory, that prospective data processing costs appear to be relatively inexpensive.

It has been estimated that the development of the right data processing equipment would increase the capability of existing radio telescopes to detect ETI signals by about a thousandfold. This means that very significant searches can be made using existing antennas so equipped and it is recommended that the search begin in this way. The possibility of discovering some unknown type of natural source in this way must not be overlooked.

Search Strategies

It is not feasible to search for all kinds of signals at all frequencies from all directions to the lowest flux levels at which a known signal of known frequency and direction of arrival can be detected. (See Sections II-5 and III-2.) The more inclusive the search becomes in frequency or spatial direction, the more time is required, unless we sacrifice sensitivity. This is, of course, the reason for making use of all available a priori information and guesses as to preferred frequencies and likely directions of arrival. Many ingenious arguments have been offered for special frequencies and directions or even times; all can be given some weight as the search proceeds. On the other hand, every reduction in some dimension of the search is based on an assumption that may be wrong.

The strategy of searching nearby F, G, and K main sequence stars at ever increasing range seems very natural; the only life we know lives on a planet around a G2 dwarf star. This strategy takes us only as far into space as necessary to discover our nearest radiative neighbors around such stars. On the other hand, only slightly older cultures may be capable of radiating much more powerful signals, or they may know that life is to be found only around a few stars of a certain spectral class and age and may beam signals at these. As is true for stars, the nearest transmitters may not be the brightest. The strongest signals may come from advanced societies at great distances, whose transmitters may not even be near any stars.

For these reasons it is premature to adopt only one strategy to the exclusion of others. To cover a wide range of other possibilities it is recommended that in addition to a high sensitivity [21] search of nearby stars, there also be a complete search of the sky to as low a flux level and over as wide a frequency band as practicable. (See Sections II-5 and III-3.)

To be significant, a full sky survey should be able to detect coherent radiation at a flux level one or two orders of magnitude below that provided by existing radio astronomy surveys. This turns out to be easier than one might expect. Although a sky survey as sensitive as ~3x10^-23 W/m² has been made this has covered only ~2% of the sky. Another, covering most of the sky, has been made to a sensitivity of ~2 x10^-20 W/m² . But in these, as apparently in all radio astronomy sky surveys, any coherent signals that might have been present were rejected as "interference." Thus a complete sky survey using SETI data processing equipment to detect coherent signals at flux levels of ~10^-20 to ~10^-24 W/m² would be very significant. Existing antennas could be used to search the water hole to this level and the entire microwave window to as low as ~10^-23 W/m² in a few years of observing time.

The target search of the nearer F, G, and K main sequence stars should be conducted using SETI hardware with existing antennas. This would permit detection of coherent signals at a flux level as low as ~10^-27 W/m², or 10³ to 10⁷ times weaker than for the full sky search, assuming an observation time on the order of a half hour per star.

Both the sky survey and the targeted search could produce positive results, but even negative results will be of value since the upper limit flux levels that would result will be much lower than before. This could change our assessment of the capabilities of other intelligent life. The experience gained using SETI hardware in actual operation, with natural and man-made interference present, will affect the design of any future search strategies, and may lead to modifications of hardware, software, and search procedure. The searches we propose can be completed in approximately five years.

Planning a Dedicated Facility

SETI is more than a single effort. Like the exploration of the New World by our forefathers, like the present exploration of our solar system, it should be accomplished by many missions, each with some particular goal in mind. But there is a limit to the time that can be reasonably devoted to SETI from the facilities of radio astronomy or other services. To achieve the ultimate goals of SETI it will probably be important to have a dedicated SETI facility, the planning for which should begin now. This facility may never need to grow beyond a collecting area equivalent to one, or a few 100-m dishes. That will depend on future priorities, and on what we learn from the searches we immediately propose. The facility may be on the ground, or in space. (See Section III-7.) We should, however, keep possible future needs in mind, and be prepared to build it whenever and wherever it appears appropriate.

Supporting Activities

Several ancillary programs should be initiated and pursued. These include protection of the water hole (1.400 to 1.727 GHz) against radio frequency interference (RFI) (see Sections II-4, III-8, and III-9), the detection of extrasolar planetary systems (see Section III-3), the development of techniques for compiling extensive lists of target stars (see Section III-4), the study of [22] alternative search strategies, and the continuing study of the cost effectiveness of space vs ground based systems.

In a resolution adopted at its fourth meeting the Science Workshop recommended that that international protection of the water hole against RFI be sought at the 1979 World Administrative Radio Conference. (See Section III-9.) Navigational satellite systems are presently being planned that would destroy the usefulness of this prime band of frequencies for SETI purposes. It is important to realize that for ground-based SETI systems such protection does not exclude all other services from the water hole, but only interfering ones such as satellites and nearby ground services. The RFI problem for space based SETI systems (especially systems in synchronous orbit) is more complex and probably more serious. Adequate shielding may be very expensive. It is not necessary that RFI protection of the water hole continue for all time. If no signals are found after a protracted sensitive search, the SETI priority may be relinquished.

The sine qua non of SETI is the plenitude of other planetary systems. While theoretical considerations suggest that planetary systems are common, it would be valuable to know how common and how their architecture varies with stellar class and multiplicity. Earlier astrometric telescopes and data reduction techniques could be improved to the point where the existence of near-by planets could be proved or disproved, but the effort might require two or three periods of a major planet, i.e., two or three decades. Preliminary calculations indicate that the direct observation of major planets around nearby stars should be possible with space telescopes of only modest size (on the order of one meter diameter). This could be accomplished by fitting the space telescope with a suitable filter or mask which greatly improves the contrast of a large planet with respect to the central star. Such an approach, if successful, would permit planets to be found in only two to three years after launch. This and other space techniques for direct planetary detection deserve active study and support. (See Section III-3.)

Present star catalogues list the coordinates of F, G, and K main sequence stars within only a few tens of light years of the Sun. If we ultimately carry on a search out to several hundred light years we will need to know the location of a thousand times as many target stars as are now listed. The problem of how best to conduct a whole sky star classification and cataloging program needs to be studied and, when solved, to be implemented. Since the compilation of such a target star data base must precede a major search, it is timely to begin the design study now. Both a greatly expanded catalogue of the solar neighborhood and knowledge about nearby planetary systems would be significant contributions to galactic and stellar astronomy as well as to SETI. (See Sections II-6, III-4, and III-6.)

Although it is assumed that the searches performed in this program will be mainly for narrow band signals at the low end of the microwave window, other possibilities should not be ignored. Given a matched filter a series of pulses is just as easy to detect as a continuous wave (COO) signal of the same average power. The pulsed signal, however, introduces the new dimensions of pulse shape, repetition rate, and duty cycle. At this same time it is not clear that CW signals are more probable than pulses. Continuing study of these and other alternatives is indicated.

[23] It will be seen that the program advocated above is of modest scale yet has potential for both SETI success and scientific contribution. Above all it serves as a logical introduction to the future but does not constitute a blank check commitment to a large expensive effort. The program is not a dead end nor is it open ended. It will be timely to consider whether to proceed with a larger scale program after this earlier effort has shown us more accurately what might be involved.

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Large systems, involving construction of new antennas, are not now needed for SETI. Until we have completed an observational program as suggested in the Second Conclusion, there seems to be no reason to construct any facility much larger in scale than Arecibo. However, we may some day decide to embark on a more comprehensive search. This could require a system of great capability. Although we emphasize that we do not now recommend construction of such a system, we also feel that is is important to emphasize that a large SETI system is well within the capability of present-day technology.

The first feasibility study of large SETI systems was the 1971 Cyclops project. It concluded that we indeed have the technology to construct a very large ground-based phased array. The system considered would be capable of operating over the I to 10 GHz region of the microwave window. and could grow to collecting areas of many square kilometers if necessary. Its receiving system would be coupled to a data processing system capable of resolving 200 Mhz of spectrum into 0.1 Hz channels and of detecting any coherent signal whose power equalled the noise power in this 0.1 Hz bandwidth.

At the request of the Ames Interstellar Communication Study Group, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory performed a detailed independent review of the Project Cyclops report, and found the study to be correct in its major technological conclusions. Today the data reduction would probably use large scale integrated circuit hardware exclusively, rather than optical processors. Today the system noise temperature could be nearer 10 K than 20 K. But these improvements only reinforce the basic conclusion that ground-based systems can be built that will detect a gigawatt omnidirectional beacon or its equivalent at a distance of 1000 light years. This corresponds, in the water hole, to a flux of one photon per second per square kilometer.

The principal cost of the Cyclops system was found to be the antennas. If the effectiveness of the data processing could be improved enough to double the sensitivity for the same antenna area, the original system performance could be achieved at about half the cost. Clearly in systems having large collecting area it is very important to make optimum use of that area by doing the best possible job of data processing. Further studies of the coherent signal detection problem and the possible tradeoffs in time and money vs antenna area are needed and should be started now.

Ground-Based vs Space Systems

Following the Cyclops study the Interstellar Communication Study Group at Ames contracted with the Stanford Research Institute to study various alternatives to a ground-based array in achieving large collecting area. A dozen alternatives were considered. four ground-based, four lunar-based, and four in space. (See Section III-7.)

[28] The study revealed that very large, very lightweight, single unit antennas in space may be cost competitive with a large ground-based array. This conclusion can only be stated as a possibility and not as a fact because of the obvious difficulty of making valid cost comparisons between the well understood, mature ground-based antenna technology and the poorly understood, untested technology of large, lightweight space antennas.

In addition to the primary feasibility and cost of the space structures many other problems associated with space systems need further study. These include the means to shield the receiver against the severe RFI expected in space, the provision for wide band data links on a continuous basis, and the logistics of servicing and maintaining and operating a complex system in space. However, space systems also give unique advantage with respect to system noise, sky and frequency coverage and tracking ability. All that can be said at present is that space systems must be carefully considered in future plans.

Obviously, the whole question of Earth versus space based systems needs an order of magnitude more study before the issue can be resolved; this must be done before a commitment is made to any large search system. The possibility exists that a combination of ground and space systems would offer advantages not to be found in either alone.

Intermediate Steps

As discussed in the second conclusion, a small dedicated facility for SETI will probably eventually be desirable. This will most likely be a single new ground-based, or small space-based, antenna of advanced design, or both. If the facility is ground-based, it would be prudent if its site and design are chosen to ensure that the system be expandable at least to an intermediate size, such as a small array of 6 to 18 antennas. Such a system would increase the sensitivity well beyond that achievable with any existing antenna and would permit simultaneous searches using different strategies. It would also allow phasing techniques to be tested.

With respect to space borne antennas, it may be desirable, as studies proceed, to fly one or more medium size designs as shuttle payloads. The missions should be designed not only to test the structures but also to allow actual SETI and radio astronomy observations to be made in space. These antennas in conjunction with a dedicated ground facility could be used together as a very long baseline interferometer of greater capability than any now employed in radio astronomy. In addition observations could be made throughout the wide frequency bands over which the atmosphere is noisy or opaque.

Scientific Applications

As soon as a dedicated SETI facility achieves either a sensitivity or spectral coverage not found in present radio or radar astronomy instruments, it becomes a uniquely useful tool for research in these areas. An almost continuously increasing spectrum of applications exists as the SETI facility is expanded in scope. It is recommended that a fraction of the time of any dedicated facility be devoted to scientific research which that facility alone makes possible. This might well provide a series of discoveries which in themselves help justify the cost of the SETI facility. (See Sections III-5 and III-6).

[29] We see that either in space or on the ground the SETI effort can efficiently grow from the initial effort to one using a very large system at whatever rate is appropriate. Early studies are needed to refine concepts of large systems, and especially to evaluate the usefulness of space. Even in the absence of the discovery of ETI signals, useful discoveries in science will accrue as the facility expands.

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The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence offers benefits for all nations. The search would certainly be facilitated by, and may even require, international cooperation. It is a serious exploration, as important as any ever undertaken, and surely of larger scope than the journeys to the Earth's poles early in the century. We can hope for relatively quick results, but must prudently prepare for a protracted effort. The program must be kept open and public in the spirit of international science and exploration. We can and should expect growing cooperation with investigators from many countries, both those already displaying interest and activity, as the Soviet Union and Canada, and others whose interest would grow.

SETI is not only a response to the spirit of exploration but is natural to the metaphysical view of modern man. The question "Are we alone?" is pertinent to the entire species, both to us and our descendants.

International cooperation is essential to solving the radio frequency interference problem discussed above. Furthermore, it is possible that antennas may be required at various places throughout the world or in space: a system beyond the borders of any single nation. It seems clear to us that the SETI effort should be cast as a cooperative international endeavor at the start and that appropriate international relationships should be established through existing or novel international organizational arrangements. Joint funding is a desirable goal for such an approach. In any case the extended period which may be required for the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence&emdash;much less communication -emphasizes the need for organizational and cultural support more enduring than typically characteristic of national programs.

There may be a particular opportunity for joint Soviet and U.S. efforts in SETI. The Soviets have already begun a preliminary search. Their published discussion of this problem indicates that considerable interest exists within the scientific community there (see Section III-11). The USSR is capable of substantial space technology should that prove important in the future. Finally, joint leadership of an international SETI program by the U.S. and the Soviet Union might constitute a logical continuation of the cooperative endeavors in space initiated by the Keldysh-Low agreements most recently responsible for the Apollo-Soyuz Test Program.

West European nations, especially West Germany, Holland, and England, have also evidenced increasing interest in new radio astronomical endeavors. Thus, the possibility of initiating a SETI program through bilateral or multilateral arrangements involving the U.S. warrant consideration as well.

The United States Can Lead in the SETI Endeavor

The United States has frequently demonstrated the will and foresight to take the initiative in programs of worldwide benefit. The U.S. space program has provided not only excitement and [34] scientific knowledge, but numerous practical satellite services not for this country alone, but for the whole world. It is in this same spirit of providing a focal point for international cooperation and support that we feel the U.S. can and should take the initiative in SETI.

The material, technological and intellectual resources of the U.S. are such that a large-scale SETI program could be carried on indefinitely by this country alone without appreciable drain on the economy. There are good reasons for believing the net effect on the economy could be positive. Even if international cooperation and support were slow to materialize, we believe SETI remains a feasible and worthwhile U.S. endeavor.

The psychology of and mechanisms for international cooperation suggest that an international SETI effort is unlikely until one big nation, such as the U.S., seizes the initiative and invites serious participation by others. It is in this sense of initiative and not in the pursuit of narrow national advantage that we recommend a leading role for the U.S. in SETI.

Initiating the SETI Effort

To carry on a significant United States SETI effort, public funds must be committed explicitly, with the approval of both the legislative and executive branches of the Federal Government. The evolution of an appropriate federal program lies with Congress and the President, but can only follow much preparatory work supported by one or more existing agencies.

We recognize that successful administration of the SETI program will require leadership by an agency with:

a. mandate to carry out scientific research and exploration, possibly requiring operations in space;

b. large scale project management experience;

c. the ability to successfully involve the U.S. and foreign scientific community in a large scale enterprise;

d. in-house expertise in the relevant fields of technology; and long range goals compatible with SETI.

Since NASA clearly meets these criteria it is particularly appropriate for NASA to take the lead in the early activities of a SETI program. SETI is an exploration of the Cosmos, clearly within the intent of legislation that established NASA in 1958. SETI overlaps and is synergistic with long term NASA programs in space astronomy, exobiology, deep space communications and planetary science. NASA is qualified technically, administratively, and practically to develop a national SETI strategy based on thoughtful interaction both with the scientific community and beyond to broader constituencies.

[35] We therefore recommend that NASA continue its pioneering initiative in studying and planning near-term activities in support of SETI, and we urge that NASA, in cooperation with other agencies, begin the implementation of SETI.

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